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International order (includingg most US parnters) would rather eat single digit % increase in diverted shipping costs and MENA fuel costs AND have Houthis embar
by maxglute 3y ago
International order (includingg most US parnters) would rather eat single digit % increase in diverted shipping costs and MENA fuel costs AND have Houthis embargo Israel access to resources in red sea than deal with alternative of Houthis hitting Saudi energy infra and have energy prices spike double digits. There's a reason only USN + UK (who imports excess energy demands from US) are committing most of the hardware and doing all the interceptions and attacks, no one else - especially the international order - wants the stir the pot more for Israel. Of course US still has unilateral power to strike as please, but don't be surprised if Yemen missiles hit Saudi refineries if things escalate.
- nradov 3y agoThe US and UK are pretty much the only countries which have the hardware to carry out interceptions and attacks. France is probably the only other country that has significant capability to project power in that region.
- ethbr1 3y agoChina, who is a significant exporter to Europe. They have a very large base in Djibouti, directly across from Yemen and across town from the US/multi-national base at the airport. It's going to be interesting to see how "China, who wants to the authority of a world power" starts to run up against "China, who has the responsibilities of a world power."
- nradov 3y agoChina is still not in the same class. The ships that they can deploy to the region are weak in strike and area air defense capability. And they don't have much in the way of intelligence gathering that would be needed to employ those ships effectively. The most that the PLAN could manage would be to escort small convoys as a defensive measure.
- ethbr1 3y agoNot sure if the PLAAF/N operates fixed-wing aircraft from the base, but they have a runway and hangars. https://www.google.com/maps/place//@11.5906054,43.0625938,16z https://www.google.com/maps/place//@11.5906054,43.0625938,16... And the PLAN has 25+ Type 052D destroyers w/ 64 VLS cells apiece [0]. And HQ-9 (reverse engineered Patriot SAMs) and ground attack capable YJ-18 cruise missiles in them. They absolutely have the capability, if they weren't busy bullying their regional neighbors in the South China Sea, who have vastly less capable warships (if any blue water). [0] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_052D_destroyer#Armament https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_052D_destroyer#Armament
- nradov 3y agoIt's easy to copy and paste numbers from Wikipedia, but that tells us nothing about actual combat effectiveness. Most of the PLAN experience lately consists of harassing Philippine fishermen. It's questionable whether their missiles even work. https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/water-filled-missiles-silo-problems-behind-china-purge-report https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/water-filled-missiles-...
- ethbr1 3y agoThose were ICBMs. The PLAN seems to be more effective and less corruption prone. Probably why they tapped a PLAN admiral to replace the defense minister, who apparently came from the missile branch.
- maxglute 3y agoMore than a few west aligned navies have SM2s or equivalents to engage basic drones. And more modern ships than type45/23 UK sent or Replenishment/projection isn't an issue since they would be leeching off US anyway if they choose to get kinetically involved in multinational framework.
- seanmcdirmid 3y agoI don’t think the saudis would be passive if that happened, they would take it as provocation from both Houthi’s and their Iranian backers. The KSA has their own squadrons of F-15s for reasons. The only reason the KSA doesn’t act against the houthis now is that it would drag them into a war with Iran, but f the houthis attack Saudi Arabia first, that war is inevitable. Pretty sure Iran has already told them not to do it.