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China Is Pressing Women to Have More Babies. Many Are Saying No
- theandrewbailey 3y agohttps://archive.is/xCEWw https://archive.is/xCEWw
- Qem 3y agoIt seems curbing natality is the easy part, despite all doomerism around population explosion. To raise it back when needed not so simple.
- eesmith 3y agoWhy is it needed? Who decides, and what if they are wrong? The only reasons I saw given were: 1) it's a Confucian duty, 2) "Soldiers win battles", and 3) "Let’s extend the Chinese bloodline", none of which sound all the convincing to me, a non-Chinese person.
- catlover76 3y agoThe real reasons are almost certainly economic in nature and supported with some degree of rigor and data. Also of course "let's extend the Chinese bloodline" doesn't sound convincing to you as a non-Chinese person, why should it lol
- eesmith 3y agoMy point is the article doesn't give much in the way of reasons for why Chinese women should want to have more babies, while Qem argues it's needed. Sure, there might be a "degree of rigor and data", but what is the data and how convincing is it? I wrote what I did to show how ignorant I am of the topic, not to argue the viewpoint wasn't convincing to its intended audience. So, is an appeal to bloodline really that influential to Chinese women in their 20s? Based on the article and its linked-to related articles, it is not influential, not even in rural areas. For example, https://archive.is/MjbKJ https://archive.is/MjbKJ , says the cost of rearing a child and difficulty in securing a steady income are far more important to people in their 20s.
- squidbeak 3y agoA dwindling labour force is a problem for any nation.
- amanaplanacanal 3y agoI would assume automation eases that quite a bit.
- nickpeterson 3y agoNo, automation gains go to the few, everyone else must work harder now since their labor is worth less.
- TheLoafOfBread 3y agoDespite all the hype lately, automation nowadays is still crude and expensive compared to a human.
- The_Colonel 3y ago4) somebody needs to pay the rents of hundreds of millions of retirees
- Qem 3y ago> Why is it needed? Who decides, and what if they are wrong? https://chinapower.csis.org/china-demographics-challenges/ https://chinapower.csis.org/china-demographics-challenges/
- eesmith 3y agoWhich seems to say that the Chinese government wants cheap workers for its economy, both as industrial workers and as health care for the elderly. Is that really what's supposed to influence Chinese women to change their minds? Is that why you think China needs to quickly increase its natality? What if you and the Politburo are wrong, and the increase is best put off for another generation while China switches to a more culture which doesn't regard "women's labor" as free and instead pays more for socialized childcare and elder care? Waiting would also make housing cheaper, which would make it more affordable to raise children. It's easy for me to believe the interests of military, factory, and building concerns are overly represented in the call for raising the birth rate now, instead of waiting.
- imbnwa 3y agoDoes their demographic cliff have any implication on a war over Taiwan? I would imagine at the moment that China can't spare young people for the time being.
- brucethemoose2 3y agoWell... China has a high man:woman sex ratio. Especially for young men. So unfortunately they do.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- mytailorisrich 3y agoCurrently, China mainland's population: 1.4 billion (inc. about 240 million under 15, apparently), Taiwan's population: 24 million. They can almost literally throw millions of people at Taiwan if they want to, and will be able to do so for many years to come.
- tmn 3y agoThe point is that doing so would exacerbate their demographic cliff issue.
- mytailorisrich 3y agoConsidering the numbers I quoted, it would make little difference (which was the point of my reply).
- tmn 3y agoWhen the issue is already manifest, the margins presumably matter. But either way, the point was just to align the reply with the original comment's point.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- dalyons 3y agoThat graph is impressively steep… ~18 million to ~9 million in ~6 years! That’s a massive cultural shift in a really short timescale, most birth rate changes are slow declines over decades. I wonder what changed in 2015 to start this ?
- huytersd 3y agoYou should look at India’s. It goes from 6 kids per woman to 1.9 in under 30 years.
- dalyons 3y ago30 years is a generation, it’s a timescale that doesn’t surprise me as much given how much macro economic change there has been. 5 years feels like yesterday, and china is not materially different economically in that time AFAIK
- hotpotamus 3y agoThe article says they actually got rid of the one child policy in 2015 thinking it would change the decline, but obviously it did not work that way. It doesn't seem like China is any different from other modern country in this regard; fertility is on the decline almost everywhere. I've become fairly convinced that it's the fall of religion that has precipitated it - the "Death of God" as Nietzsche called it. Personally speaking, the thought of working a 996 style job (that could be mostly bullshit) all my life does not really inspire much desire to have children to perpetuate that economic meat-grinder. It'd be nice to think there was something more to life, but it seems illusive.
- maxglute 3y agoMassive expansion in tertiary capacity and increase in tertiary enrollment delaying births (25% in 2010 - 60% in 2022). I'd expect slow TFR rebound as the early cohorts finish school and settle into new jobs* in a few years, but still net decline in fertilitiy due to higher education. IMO not many educated or urbanized couples wants more than 2 kids.
- 3y ago
- xt00 3y agoThe reality is that in so many countries is that it is too expensive to have more kids than 1 or 2. You have both parents working, living in an expensive place, paying for day care, buying a bigger car, etc.. you end up needing to be well above middle class to actually afford 3-4 kids.. then when you factor in university, then you basically need to win the lottery or your kids end up with tons of debt. And in many cities in China you effectively are an immigrant in your own country trying to become a resident where you can access the cities better healthcare system and schools etc.. so people have a big incentive to want to live in the bigger more expensive cities. (Which ends up making it more likely people will have fewer kids)
- JoeAltmaier 3y agoI like to say, one kid is amateur. Two is professional. Three is at Master's level. You have two hands in a parking lot. Two parents. Two sides on the sofa when reading. Two fit in the back seat. Three, you need entirely new solutions for all that. And the cost goes up drastically.
- Kon-Peki 3y agoUnless you've got triplets or twins + 1, three kids is a lot easier than two. They help each other out, work together, look out for each other, etc. Some things are drastically more expensive, others are negligible. What annoys me the most is that most 5-passenger vehicles these days are actually just 4-passenger vehicles with an emergency-use-only 5th seatbelt. You're "supposed" to buy the 3-row 7/8 passenger SUV/Van. But then you have no cargo space because the third row seats aren't folded down.
- throwaway60720 3y agoWhat's wrong with Ford Galaxy, Volkswagen Touran or Sharan, Seat Alhambra ...?
- Kon-Peki 3y agoNon-availability in the USA would be the main issue. But even then, those cars are fairly narrow and quickly become uncomfortable when your kids get older. It's crazy, but a Ford F150 SuperCrew has pretty much the perfect passenger space; if only they would put something like that in a two-row wagon format.
- huytersd 3y agoIt’s an authoritarian state. They could actually just effectively mandate that each woman has to have two kids if medically possible.
- rany_ 3y agoI don't think it's that easy. To borrow a quote: "too simple, sometimes naive."
- huytersd 3y agoIt is that easy. Why wouldn’t it be? It would be as simple as extra taxation if you don’t have two kids.
- hotpotamus 3y agoAs a man, I'm not capable of having kids, so it seems a bit unfair to me.
- huytersd 3y agoSure, the law accounts for medical problems in both parties. That’s just pedantic though.
- hotpotamus 3y agoThere is no medical problem and there is no other party; as a man, I'm not capable of making children, no matter how much of a tax penalty you apply to me.
- huytersd 3y agoIt applies to families obviously. Like the tax code for the one child policy, there’s precedent for this.
- cedws 3y agoIf we want to address climate change, we have to acknowledge that having children is the most environmentally destructive action you can possibly take. The message governments should be sending is "don't have children." 8 billion is too many. I heard from somewhere that if everybody on Earth lived a first world lifestyle, we would quickly deplete all of the available resources. Population decline is our chance to rebalance ourselves with nature.
- techbro92 3y agoSource: “I heard from somewhere”
- mobiuscog 3y agoWe're doing it already without everyone living a first-world lifestyle, so whilst the source isn't cited, it's highly likely.
- rnk 3y agoThere are more efficient ways to get our needed energy, wind, water, solar. In the US we are up to 20% using this (and 20% nuclear). In other countries they will be able to transition to solar, as it will only get cheaper and cheaper. Electric vehicles will also further reduce emissions. Electricity to head and cool your home from primarily green sources will mean your personal emissions will go down. The hard thing to calculate is the net impact over time. But imagine someone in a poorer country that burns wood or coal, their electric sources are those too. They can increase their energy usage and actually improve their greenhouse gas impact. There's no panacea but we can get there.
- oska 3y agoPlease read the Guidelines for commenting on this site https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- sam345 3y agoIrony reigns: More Than a Million Embryos Are in Cold Storage. What Should Happen to Them? https://archive.is/lGVsB https://archive.is/lGVsB