3 ms·

The cost of certifying new engines is high, which discourages advancement. Even more discouraging is the extremely backwards way of thinking that the old farts

The cost of certifying new engines is high, which discourages advancement. Even more discouraging is the extremely backwards way of thinking that the old farts in GA have. There is nothing that the barnacles who cling to the walls of the FBO hate more than change, and they're the ones buying stuff.

AYBABTME 3y ago
But it's crazy that people die left and right like flies. The fricking SVP of the AOPA who was narrating videos on GA accident reviews... died in a GA accident 2 months ago. In other high risks sports, people tend to blame lack of skills over hardware failure for being the primary cause of accidents (scuba diving, climbing, sailing - all tend to blame improper skill over equipment). But in GA... very safety minded people like Richard McSpadden Jr. die _because_ of the hardware, as far as I'm concerned. It's a crazy situation.
- marcosdumay 3y ago
  Aviation tends to refuse to blame accidents on skill alone. You can't compare it directly with other activities.
- nradov 3y ago
  I do a lot of scuba diving and have read many incident reports. While improper skills are usually the primary cause, equipment is usually a contributing factor. Not so much equipment failures but just bringing equipment that is poorly designed or unsuitable for the conditions. Most of that equipment selection problem can be traced back to poor quality instruction and conflicts of interest in the industry. Unlike flying, there is no legal licensing process for diving. Training is mostly handled by a few different private agencies which set course curricula and certify instructors. Some agencies have minimal quality standards and will give an instructor card to almost anyone. And then most training courses are run by dive shops which also sell equipment, so instructors are pressured to not criticize anything the shop sells even when it's total garbage.
sidlls 3y ago
There is also a demand issue aside from change-hating curmudgeons. There simply isn't a large enough market for GA planes for companies to justify the cost of research and development, and even though planes aren't cheap GA plane purchasers can still be fairly cost sensitive.
- AYBABTME 3y ago
  The regulator is to blame if certification is so expensive that old tech is left around to kill people.
  - sidlls 3y ago
    This isn't (just) a regulator issue: it's a market issue. There just aren't many new engines produced every year, because there isn't demand for it. Owning an airplane is expensive, even on the lowest GA end. It's a hobby for the affluent and wealthy. The market just isn't that big. On the extreme side--private jets for the ultra-wealthy--it may be different (I wouldn't know; I'm a lowly 7-figure net worther, barely "rich" by this standard, and owning a private multi-engine jet is well beyond my means).
    - AYBABTME 3y ago
      I think the market is shrinking because the prices are going up because innovation is impossible (compared to alternative transportation tech) because of insane certification costs which creates a reinforced monopoly on existing players and erodes incentives to change and improve. The market ossifies, costs keep going up and so demand keeps shrinking. It's a feedback loop that ends with the annihilation of GA. The regulatory agency is suffocating the segment.
      - MichaelZuo 3y ago
        It's not the 'certification cost' that is the root problem, it's the liability cost of an accident, which will only ever increase in the future. The 'certification cost' is just the threshold at which the FAA is fine with all the liability being offloaded on to them, for engines made and maintained to spec at least. i.e. For this cost to actually decrease would require an entirely different society, one that doesn't settle things through the judicial/administrative system whatsoever. But then costs may increase somewhere else.

AYBABTME 3y ago

But it's crazy that people die left and right like flies. The fricking SVP of the AOPA who was narrating videos on GA accident reviews... died in a GA accident 2 months ago. In other high risks sports, people tend to blame lack of skills over hardware failure for being the primary cause of accidents (scuba diving, climbing, sailing - all tend to blame improper skill over equipment). But in GA... very safety minded people like Richard McSpadden Jr. die _because_ of the hardware, as far as I'm concerned. It's a crazy situation.

marcosdumay 3y ago
Aviation tends to refuse to blame accidents on skill alone. You can't compare it directly with other activities.
nradov 3y ago
I do a lot of scuba diving and have read many incident reports. While improper skills are usually the primary cause, equipment is usually a contributing factor. Not so much equipment failures but just bringing equipment that is poorly designed or unsuitable for the conditions. Most of that equipment selection problem can be traced back to poor quality instruction and conflicts of interest in the industry. Unlike flying, there is no legal licensing process for diving. Training is mostly handled by a few different private agencies which set course curricula and certify instructors. Some agencies have minimal quality standards and will give an instructor card to almost anyone. And then most training courses are run by dive shops which also sell equipment, so instructors are pressured to not criticize anything the shop sells even when it's total garbage.

sidlls 3y ago

There is also a demand issue aside from change-hating curmudgeons. There simply isn't a large enough market for GA planes for companies to justify the cost of research and development, and even though planes aren't cheap GA plane purchasers can still be fairly cost sensitive.

AYBABTME 3y ago
The regulator is to blame if certification is so expensive that old tech is left around to kill people.
- sidlls 3y ago
  This isn't (just) a regulator issue: it's a market issue. There just aren't many new engines produced every year, because there isn't demand for it. Owning an airplane is expensive, even on the lowest GA end. It's a hobby for the affluent and wealthy. The market just isn't that big. On the extreme side--private jets for the ultra-wealthy--it may be different (I wouldn't know; I'm a lowly 7-figure net worther, barely "rich" by this standard, and owning a private multi-engine jet is well beyond my means).
  - AYBABTME 3y ago
    I think the market is shrinking because the prices are going up because innovation is impossible (compared to alternative transportation tech) because of insane certification costs which creates a reinforced monopoly on existing players and erodes incentives to change and improve. The market ossifies, costs keep going up and so demand keeps shrinking. It's a feedback loop that ends with the annihilation of GA. The regulatory agency is suffocating the segment.
    - MichaelZuo 3y ago
      It's not the 'certification cost' that is the root problem, it's the liability cost of an accident, which will only ever increase in the future. The 'certification cost' is just the threshold at which the FAA is fine with all the liability being offloaded on to them, for engines made and maintained to spec at least. i.e. For this cost to actually decrease would require an entirely different society, one that doesn't settle things through the judicial/administrative system whatsoever. But then costs may increase somewhere else.