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Probe says Hans Niemann didn't cheat against Magnus Carlsen

25 points by pain_perdu 3y ago

erulabs 3y ago
They just had to word it this way, didn’t they? It couldn’t have been an “investigation” this time, CNN? Shameless, but still funny.
- avandekleut 3y ago
  I didn’t put it together till this comment…
- ics 3y ago
  "Is that the same probe that Hans was... oh, nevermind." Actually the full article title that I see is descriptive enough that I wouldn't have thought of it but that wouldn't fit in the HN form limits I don't think. "Probe says Hans Niemann didn’t cheat against Magnus Carlsen in over-the-board match, but did cheat in up to 55 online games"
clipsy 3y ago
"A lie can travel halfway around the world while the truth is still putting on its shoes."
enlyth 3y ago
>We apologize, but your web browser is configured in such a way that it is preventing this site from implementing required components that protect your privacy and allow you to view and change your privacy settings. This functionality is required for privacy legislation in your region. >We recommend you use a different browser or disable the “EasyList Cookie” filter from your “Content Filtering” settings No, I will not: https://archive.is/IPAPF https://archive.is/IPAPF
- Aicy 3y ago
  Yeah, what? I'm using Google Chrome, the most popular browser in the world and its giving me this nonsense.
gwern 3y ago
No, what it said was that it didn't find evidence he cheated. A failure to reject the null does not mean you should accept the null. As has been noted, current techniques are just unable to detect subtle cheating by GMs, and Niemann would have done so subtly. Given that this probe also shows Niemann has been lying and cheating even more extensively than has been known before, this should make you assume that he is cheating everywhere else he can get away with it until proven otherwise.
- RedCardRef 3y ago
  "Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence"
- 8note 3y ago
  The same applies to every chess pro - if they're cheating they're cheating in a way where modern techniques couldn't detect it, so we should consider everyone, Magnus included, as cheaters
  - austhrow743 3y ago
    Considering everyone which plays chess a cheater because they could possibly cheat ends chess as a sport. Considering everyone who has cheated to be a cheater allows chess to continue while costing nothing.
unsupp0rted 3y ago
> However, the EDC did find Carlsen guilty of withdrawing from the 2022 Sinquefield Cup “without valid reason.” He was fined €10,000 ($10,800) as a result.
plopz 3y ago
It did find however that he cheated more recently than he previously admitted. >Professor Regan analysed some of the games mentioned in the Chess.com Report, and his statistical analysis showed fewer instances of cheating in comparison with the Report, bringing the range down to 32-55 games cheated in. The analysis of the Chess.com Report revealed discrepancies in GM Niemann´s statement- he claimed the cheating took place when he was 12 and 16 years old, but games of 2017 and the games against Bok in August of 2020 occurred after he turned 17 in June. Another important discrepancy is that the cheating took place in rated online games.
janalsncm 3y ago
Have to say I’m just a little skeptical of Ken Regen’s statistical methods. Of course it’s a touchy subject because there’s a strong incentive not to reveal his methods, but he also seems to have more or less of a monopoly on authority on the matter.
TriangleEdge 3y ago
The chess.com article (https://www.chess.com/blog/CHESScom/hans-niemann-report https://www.chess.com/blog/CHESScom/hans-niemann-report) is much more throughout, and a better source of information. In the article: "Despite the public speculation on these questions, in our view, there is no direct evidence that proves Hans cheated at the September 4, 2022 game with Magnus, or proves that he has cheated in other OTB games in the past." Personally, I find Niemann's mannerisms during interviews highly suspect, as unscientific as that may be.
valianteffort 3y ago
>probe Heh, wonder if the author realized this.

25 points by pain_perdu 3y ago

They just had to word it this way, didn’t they? It couldn’t have been an “investigation” this time, CNN? Shameless, but still funny.

avandekleut 3y ago
I didn’t put it together till this comment…
ics 3y ago
"Is that the same probe that Hans was... oh, nevermind." Actually the full article title that I see is descriptive enough that I wouldn't have thought of it but that wouldn't fit in the HN form limits I don't think. "Probe says Hans Niemann didn’t cheat against Magnus Carlsen in over-the-board match, but did cheat in up to 55 online games"

clipsy 3y ago

"A lie can travel halfway around the world while the truth is still putting on its shoes."

enlyth 3y ago

>We apologize, but your web browser is configured in such a way that it is preventing this site from implementing required components that protect your privacy and allow you to view and change your privacy settings. This functionality is required for privacy legislation in your region. >We recommend you use a different browser or disable the “EasyList Cookie” filter from your “Content Filtering” settings No, I will not: https://archive.is/IPAPF https://archive.is/IPAPF

Aicy 3y ago
Yeah, what? I'm using Google Chrome, the most popular browser in the world and its giving me this nonsense.

gwern 3y ago

No, what it said was that it didn't find evidence he cheated. A failure to reject the null does not mean you should accept the null. As has been noted, current techniques are just unable to detect subtle cheating by GMs, and Niemann would have done so subtly. Given that this probe also shows Niemann has been lying and cheating even more extensively than has been known before, this should make you assume that he is cheating everywhere else he can get away with it until proven otherwise.

RedCardRef 3y ago
"Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence"
8note 3y ago
The same applies to every chess pro - if they're cheating they're cheating in a way where modern techniques couldn't detect it, so we should consider everyone, Magnus included, as cheaters
- austhrow743 3y ago
  Considering everyone which plays chess a cheater because they could possibly cheat ends chess as a sport. Considering everyone who has cheated to be a cheater allows chess to continue while costing nothing.

unsupp0rted 3y ago

> However, the EDC did find Carlsen guilty of withdrawing from the 2022 Sinquefield Cup “without valid reason.” He was fined €10,000 ($10,800) as a result.

plopz 3y ago

It did find however that he cheated more recently than he previously admitted. >Professor Regan analysed some of the games mentioned in the Chess.com Report, and his statistical analysis showed fewer instances of cheating in comparison with the Report, bringing the range down to 32-55 games cheated in. The analysis of the Chess.com Report revealed discrepancies in GM Niemann´s statement- he claimed the cheating took place when he was 12 and 16 years old, but games of 2017 and the games against Bok in August of 2020 occurred after he turned 17 in June. Another important discrepancy is that the cheating took place in rated online games.

janalsncm 3y ago

Have to say I’m just a little skeptical of Ken Regen’s statistical methods. Of course it’s a touchy subject because there’s a strong incentive not to reveal his methods, but he also seems to have more or less of a monopoly on authority on the matter.

TriangleEdge 3y ago

The chess.com article (https://www.chess.com/blog/CHESScom/hans-niemann-report https://www.chess.com/blog/CHESScom/hans-niemann-report) is much more throughout, and a better source of information. In the article: "Despite the public speculation on these questions, in our view, there is no direct evidence that proves Hans cheated at the September 4, 2022 game with Magnus, or proves that he has cheated in other OTB games in the past." Personally, I find Niemann's mannerisms during interviews highly suspect, as unscientific as that may be.

valianteffort 3y ago

>probe Heh, wonder if the author realized this.