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I'm guessing we're not done, we're just reaching the endgame with silicon dies. Next steps will be new tech sometimes with a long lead time until it has been d

I'm guessing we're not done, we're just reaching the endgame with silicon dies. Next steps will be new tech sometimes with a long lead time until it has been developed to the extent that it's competitive with silicon. Things like integrated photonics (or a completely photonic CPU), quantum computers, or diamond instead of silicon (or other materials instead of silicon). Are we not still getting exponential growth in capability vs time?

layer8 3y ago
It's impossible for growth to be exponential indefinitely. Eventually it'll end up as a sigmoid curve. Secondly, progress isn't smooth. It comes in phases and leaps, and it's possible for it to stagnate for a long time.
- colechristensen 3y ago
  Certainly. We're near the top of the computational capacity for silicon chips. However, the computational capacity of a cubic centimeter of our universe is mind bogglingly enormous, what we can do now is a drop of water in the ocean (or much much smaller). There are lots of other ways to compute and many of them in active development. Folks have been saying exponential growth is over for many decades now. It may have slowed in some ways or growth might be going in different directions, but it's still growth and I see no signs that the end is near or we're close to a major longterm slowdown of growth.
  - fennecbutt 3y ago
    I think we'll start with a cubic cm of silicon before space. However if you like the topic and want to read some fiction involving it, try the Jean Le Flambeur trilogy by Hannu Rajanieme (sp?)
- DeathArrow 3y ago
  I think we are only limited by the amount of matter and energy in the Universe. We are far from reaching any limit.
  - imtringued 3y ago
    Dead wrong. You are limited by the speed of causality. Even if the universe is infinite your growth rate would cease to be exponential since the speed of causality is linear and the reachable sphere is growing only by the third power. 5% growth per year and two thousand years later you coloinize thousands of observable universes. The observable universe has a length of 90 billion lightyears. And no, time dilation won't save you unless you think of dumb ideas like cloning yourself so that the humanity that spreads is considered "you". Otherwise you will only get to go to a single planet.

layer8 3y ago

It's impossible for growth to be exponential indefinitely. Eventually it'll end up as a sigmoid curve. Secondly, progress isn't smooth. It comes in phases and leaps, and it's possible for it to stagnate for a long time.

colechristensen 3y ago
Certainly. We're near the top of the computational capacity for silicon chips. However, the computational capacity of a cubic centimeter of our universe is mind bogglingly enormous, what we can do now is a drop of water in the ocean (or much much smaller). There are lots of other ways to compute and many of them in active development. Folks have been saying exponential growth is over for many decades now. It may have slowed in some ways or growth might be going in different directions, but it's still growth and I see no signs that the end is near or we're close to a major longterm slowdown of growth.
- fennecbutt 3y ago
  I think we'll start with a cubic cm of silicon before space. However if you like the topic and want to read some fiction involving it, try the Jean Le Flambeur trilogy by Hannu Rajanieme (sp?)
DeathArrow 3y ago
I think we are only limited by the amount of matter and energy in the Universe. We are far from reaching any limit.
- imtringued 3y ago
  Dead wrong. You are limited by the speed of causality. Even if the universe is infinite your growth rate would cease to be exponential since the speed of causality is linear and the reachable sphere is growing only by the third power. 5% growth per year and two thousand years later you coloinize thousands of observable universes. The observable universe has a length of 90 billion lightyears. And no, time dilation won't save you unless you think of dumb ideas like cloning yourself so that the humanity that spreads is considered "you". Otherwise you will only get to go to a single planet.