7 ms·

To be fair FSD is the hardest software problem that man has ever attempted.

bdcravens 3y ago
Possibly, but then don't make promises and have the audacity to charge for it
mikestew 3y ago
That's not being fair, that's making excuses. If the problem is that hard, don't be running your mouth about you'll have it done in six months, and charge people money while you work out the bugs.
- DoesntMatter22 3y ago
  Never did Musk say "We'll have it done in six months".
  - r3d0c 3y ago
    lol... but he has been saying "it'll be out next year" for many years but please, keep defending in bad faith
  - delecti 3y ago
    This: https://motherfrunker.ca/fsd/ https://motherfrunker.ca/fsd/ (linked in the GGP to your comment) links to this tweet from Jan 23, 2017 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/823727035088416768 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/823727035088416768 When asked the question "At what point will "Full Self-Driving Capability" features noticeably depart from "Enhanced Autopilot" features?" Elon responded "3 months maybe, 6 months definitely" Also, lots of examples of "this year" stated in various Januarys, and multiple instances along the lines of "complete autonomy in 2 years" going back 8 years. I suspect his statements are carefully made to not technically meet the legal definition for fraud, but colloquially he's absolutely a liar.
    - isk517 3y ago
      Those don't count because Elon had this fingers crossed when he made those tweets. /s
    - DoesntMatter22 3y ago
      This question was not asking about when FSD was going to work but when Enhanced Autopilot would noticeably depart from FSD. No where in there did it say "FSD will be working completely in 6 months". They did in fact diverge, no where was that a statement that FSD would be complete by then. It's ironic you are calling him a liar when your response seems to either be completely dishonest itself or you are not aware of the subject at hand.
      - tedivm 3y ago
        In October of 2016- > By the end of next year, said Musk, Tesla would demonstrate a fully autonomous drive from, say, a home in L.A., to Times Square ... without the need for a single touch, including the charging. So you're technically right- he said three months, not six. https://www.nbcnews.com/business/autos/driverless-tesla-will-travel-l-nyc-2017-says-musk-n670206 https://www.nbcnews.com/business/autos/driverless-tesla-will...
        DoesntMatter22 3y ago
        I don't see any direct quote of him saying what you are claiming. Please post that quote if you can find it
        Fountain1320 3y ago
        Quote came from a conference call. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=5SfDmL0sv3w https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=5SfDmL0sv3w At ~6:20.
        DoesntMatter22 3y ago
        Thank you for posting this. More proof of what I said. He did not say that they would definitively do it, he said exactly at the timestamp that you gave: "Our goal is". So clearly didn't say that it would happen for certain
  - deleted 3y ago
    [deleted]
fragmede 3y ago
I dunno, AGI seems like a hard problem too.
- JoshTriplett 3y ago
  Safe AGI is a hard problem. AGI is, sadly, not hard enough.
- acdha 3y ago
  FSD is a substantial subset of AGI: driving is full of edge cases where you need to be able to reason about unusual conditions or behavior by other drivers, understand what someone like a flagger or police officer is saying, etc.
  - mannykannot 3y ago
    It is not obvious that even level 5 FSD will require either self-awareness or a theory of mind: adequate modeling of the possible behaviors of nearby actors in the immediate future may be "all" it takes, and current systems are struggling with that. Of course, if one were to define FSD in terms of being so capable that it could also likely pass the Turing test (or whatever better replacement we come up with as a measure of AGI), then, by definition, it would be close to as hard a problem as AGI itself.
    - acdha 3y ago
      I said “substantial subset” precisely to avoid this kind of tangent. My point was simply that there are a lot of edge cases we have no clear path to solving which are masked at the current level by punting the problem to the human driver. We are a very long time from being able to build cars without manual controls even if we might hit the point where a majority of driving miles are automated long before then.
      - fragmede 3y ago
        Cars without manual controls are closer than you think. The Waymo cars do just fine without a human driver in the seat, and before they got suspended, Cruise was just starting a pilot program with vehicles without manual controls called the Cruise Origin. Sale of such a vehicle to the general public is a ways off but for a taxi service we're pretty close.
AlexandrB 3y ago
This is important to consider when judging Tesla's engineering capability, but not when judging Elon Musk's highly optimistic promises. Either Elon is aware of the fact that FSD is really hard and he's lying repeatedly about being able to deliver it "later this year". Or he is not aware that FSD is as hard as you say and needs to "hit the books" and understand the problem better. I don't really see an "out" here after so many missed promises.
- AnthonyMouse 3y ago
  Software timelines are notoriously hard to forecast because you're essentially trying to predict how long it will take to do something nobody has done before. So you look at what's left to do and as long as you don't run into any unforeseen issues you say, looks like about six months from now. Sometimes you don't run into any unforeseen issues and it turns out to be about six months. Sometimes you do, and then it takes longer. So a year later you found an unexpected problem that delayed you by a year. Someone asks you how long you think it will take again, that issue delayed you by a year but that was a year ago, so you say, looks like about six months from now. Eventually the estimate will be true but nobody knows when because nobody knows how to make an accurate estimate. Because you have to know how hard it is to do in order to know how long it will take, which nobody knows until after somebody has actually done it.
  - seadan83 3y ago
    Just reminded of the an old trope for estimates, either: - less than 3 months - 3 months - 6 months Anything less than 3 months - is an accurate estimate. Otherwise, 3 months is the amount of time it takes to do _anything_, right? If it's a really hard problem, then we say, okay, it's 6 months. At the end of the day, those 3 months and 6 months means "NFC", which goes back to the estimation technique that everything is either a "1", "TFB", or "NFC". 3 months = TFB, 6 months = NFC On a more serious point, we (as software engineers) generally feel we can solve almost any problem with 3 months worth of resources and effort. 3 to 6 months sometimes (IMO) can be a bit of the scariest estimate to give or receive. For reference & more on NFC/TFB/1 estimation technique: https://pm.stackexchange.com/questions/26218/how-to-implement-tfb-nfc-1-sprint-estimation-technique https://pm.stackexchange.com/questions/26218/how-to-implemen...
TaylorAlexander 3y ago
I watched a panel discussion on self driving cars in 2015 with several legit experts in the technology (I believe Sebastian Thrun was one of them). There were also some CEOs. The experts all said there’s no way the tech would deploy before 2025, potentially later. The CEOs were saying 2018 or 2019. The experts had a clear view way back then, the CEOs just don’t want to listen.
- bryanlarsen 3y ago
  Waymo deployed cars without safety drivers to Tempe in 2021.
  - cycomanic 3y ago
    I'd argue even waymo is still far away from FSD. Driverless cars on a restricted set of roads with a remote operator monitoring things (and the ability to quickly resolve issues), is nowhere close to what I (and the general public I would argue) understands as fully self driving.
    - bryanlarsen 3y ago
      Sure, if you set the goalposts in a place that's unachievable we'll never reach them. - even human drivers cannot safely operate in all locations/conditions - all self-driving cars will need a mechanism for cops to talk to a human
      - deleted 3y ago
        [deleted]
      - kelnos 3y ago
        The goal is to replace a human driver in every situation where a human driver could or would drive, with an equivalent or (ideally) better safety record. Are you suggesting that Waymo is there? I don't think the evidence would support that. Even if we relax that goal a bit so the self-driving car can disengage and refuse to drive in, say, the most difficult 20% of situations, I don't think we can say Waymo is there, either.
serf 3y ago
who in their right mind would look at any problem in any field with the title of "hardest problem" and then put a schedule to it?
- pyrale 3y ago
  A deluded narcissist?
- signatoremo 3y ago
  Apparently 1700 AI experts in the field just recently did: https://research.aimultiple.com/artificial-general-intelligence-singularity-timing/ https://research.aimultiple.com/artificial-general-intellige... Check out for more predictions by experts: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularity https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularity
freejazz 3y ago
One would think this would be a good reason to not promise that you'll have solved it within a timeframe that's not even remotely realistic
didntknowya 3y ago
can't be that hard if he claimed he could finish it in 3-6months.
DonHopkins 3y ago
There's a lot of water you're carrying there, Stan.
marginalia_nu 3y ago
Especially if that is true, maybe don't promise a solution before having it working?

Possibly, but then don't make promises and have the audacity to charge for it

That's not being fair, that's making excuses. If the problem is that hard, don't be running your mouth about you'll have it done in six months, and charge people money while you work out the bugs.

DoesntMatter22 3y ago
Never did Musk say "We'll have it done in six months".
- r3d0c 3y ago
  lol... but he has been saying "it'll be out next year" for many years but please, keep defending in bad faith
- delecti 3y ago
  This: https://motherfrunker.ca/fsd/ https://motherfrunker.ca/fsd/ (linked in the GGP to your comment) links to this tweet from Jan 23, 2017 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/823727035088416768 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/823727035088416768 When asked the question "At what point will "Full Self-Driving Capability" features noticeably depart from "Enhanced Autopilot" features?" Elon responded "3 months maybe, 6 months definitely" Also, lots of examples of "this year" stated in various Januarys, and multiple instances along the lines of "complete autonomy in 2 years" going back 8 years. I suspect his statements are carefully made to not technically meet the legal definition for fraud, but colloquially he's absolutely a liar.
  - isk517 3y ago
    Those don't count because Elon had this fingers crossed when he made those tweets. /s
  - DoesntMatter22 3y ago
    This question was not asking about when FSD was going to work but when Enhanced Autopilot would noticeably depart from FSD. No where in there did it say "FSD will be working completely in 6 months". They did in fact diverge, no where was that a statement that FSD would be complete by then. It's ironic you are calling him a liar when your response seems to either be completely dishonest itself or you are not aware of the subject at hand.
    - tedivm 3y ago
      In October of 2016- > By the end of next year, said Musk, Tesla would demonstrate a fully autonomous drive from, say, a home in L.A., to Times Square ... without the need for a single touch, including the charging. So you're technically right- he said three months, not six. https://www.nbcnews.com/business/autos/driverless-tesla-will-travel-l-nyc-2017-says-musk-n670206 https://www.nbcnews.com/business/autos/driverless-tesla-will...
      - DoesntMatter22 3y ago
        I don't see any direct quote of him saying what you are claiming. Please post that quote if you can find it
        Fountain1320 3y ago
        Quote came from a conference call. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=5SfDmL0sv3w https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=5SfDmL0sv3w At ~6:20.
        DoesntMatter22 3y ago
        Thank you for posting this. More proof of what I said. He did not say that they would definitively do it, he said exactly at the timestamp that you gave: "Our goal is". So clearly didn't say that it would happen for certain
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]

fragmede 3y ago

I dunno, AGI seems like a hard problem too.

JoshTriplett 3y ago
Safe AGI is a hard problem. AGI is, sadly, not hard enough.
acdha 3y ago
FSD is a substantial subset of AGI: driving is full of edge cases where you need to be able to reason about unusual conditions or behavior by other drivers, understand what someone like a flagger or police officer is saying, etc.
- mannykannot 3y ago
  It is not obvious that even level 5 FSD will require either self-awareness or a theory of mind: adequate modeling of the possible behaviors of nearby actors in the immediate future may be "all" it takes, and current systems are struggling with that. Of course, if one were to define FSD in terms of being so capable that it could also likely pass the Turing test (or whatever better replacement we come up with as a measure of AGI), then, by definition, it would be close to as hard a problem as AGI itself.
  - acdha 3y ago
    I said “substantial subset” precisely to avoid this kind of tangent. My point was simply that there are a lot of edge cases we have no clear path to solving which are masked at the current level by punting the problem to the human driver. We are a very long time from being able to build cars without manual controls even if we might hit the point where a majority of driving miles are automated long before then.
    - fragmede 3y ago
      Cars without manual controls are closer than you think. The Waymo cars do just fine without a human driver in the seat, and before they got suspended, Cruise was just starting a pilot program with vehicles without manual controls called the Cruise Origin. Sale of such a vehicle to the general public is a ways off but for a taxi service we're pretty close.

AlexandrB 3y ago

This is important to consider when judging Tesla's engineering capability, but not when judging Elon Musk's highly optimistic promises. Either Elon is aware of the fact that FSD is really hard and he's lying repeatedly about being able to deliver it "later this year". Or he is not aware that FSD is as hard as you say and needs to "hit the books" and understand the problem better. I don't really see an "out" here after so many missed promises.

AnthonyMouse 3y ago
Software timelines are notoriously hard to forecast because you're essentially trying to predict how long it will take to do something nobody has done before. So you look at what's left to do and as long as you don't run into any unforeseen issues you say, looks like about six months from now. Sometimes you don't run into any unforeseen issues and it turns out to be about six months. Sometimes you do, and then it takes longer. So a year later you found an unexpected problem that delayed you by a year. Someone asks you how long you think it will take again, that issue delayed you by a year but that was a year ago, so you say, looks like about six months from now. Eventually the estimate will be true but nobody knows when because nobody knows how to make an accurate estimate. Because you have to know how hard it is to do in order to know how long it will take, which nobody knows until after somebody has actually done it.
- seadan83 3y ago
  Just reminded of the an old trope for estimates, either: - less than 3 months - 3 months - 6 months Anything less than 3 months - is an accurate estimate. Otherwise, 3 months is the amount of time it takes to do _anything_, right? If it's a really hard problem, then we say, okay, it's 6 months. At the end of the day, those 3 months and 6 months means "NFC", which goes back to the estimation technique that everything is either a "1", "TFB", or "NFC". 3 months = TFB, 6 months = NFC On a more serious point, we (as software engineers) generally feel we can solve almost any problem with 3 months worth of resources and effort. 3 to 6 months sometimes (IMO) can be a bit of the scariest estimate to give or receive. For reference & more on NFC/TFB/1 estimation technique: https://pm.stackexchange.com/questions/26218/how-to-implement-tfb-nfc-1-sprint-estimation-technique https://pm.stackexchange.com/questions/26218/how-to-implemen...

TaylorAlexander 3y ago

I watched a panel discussion on self driving cars in 2015 with several legit experts in the technology (I believe Sebastian Thrun was one of them). There were also some CEOs. The experts all said there’s no way the tech would deploy before 2025, potentially later. The CEOs were saying 2018 or 2019. The experts had a clear view way back then, the CEOs just don’t want to listen.

bryanlarsen 3y ago
Waymo deployed cars without safety drivers to Tempe in 2021.
- cycomanic 3y ago
  I'd argue even waymo is still far away from FSD. Driverless cars on a restricted set of roads with a remote operator monitoring things (and the ability to quickly resolve issues), is nowhere close to what I (and the general public I would argue) understands as fully self driving.
  - bryanlarsen 3y ago
    Sure, if you set the goalposts in a place that's unachievable we'll never reach them. - even human drivers cannot safely operate in all locations/conditions - all self-driving cars will need a mechanism for cops to talk to a human
    - deleted 3y ago
      [deleted]
    - kelnos 3y ago
      The goal is to replace a human driver in every situation where a human driver could or would drive, with an equivalent or (ideally) better safety record. Are you suggesting that Waymo is there? I don't think the evidence would support that. Even if we relax that goal a bit so the self-driving car can disengage and refuse to drive in, say, the most difficult 20% of situations, I don't think we can say Waymo is there, either.

serf 3y ago

who in their right mind would look at any problem in any field with the title of "hardest problem" and then put a schedule to it?

pyrale 3y ago
A deluded narcissist?
signatoremo 3y ago
Apparently 1700 AI experts in the field just recently did: https://research.aimultiple.com/artificial-general-intelligence-singularity-timing/ https://research.aimultiple.com/artificial-general-intellige... Check out for more predictions by experts: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularity https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularity

freejazz 3y ago

One would think this would be a good reason to not promise that you'll have solved it within a timeframe that's not even remotely realistic

didntknowya 3y ago

can't be that hard if he claimed he could finish it in 3-6months.

DonHopkins 3y ago

There's a lot of water you're carrying there, Stan.

marginalia_nu 3y ago

Especially if that is true, maybe don't promise a solution before having it working?