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There seems to be a new model every single day. How do people have time to keep track with everything going on in AI?
by goalonetwo 3y ago
There seems to be a new model every single day. How do people have time to keep track with everything going on in AI?
- hinkley 3y agoFrom decades of observing at a distance and observing observers at a distance, I think it's safe to say that, like fusion, there are walls that AI run into, not unlike the risers on a staircase, and when we collectively hit one, there's a lot of scuttling back forth. A lot of movement, but no real progress. If that plateau goes on too long, excitement (and funding) dry up and things die down. Then someone figures out how to get past the current plateau, and the whole process repeats. That could be new tech, a new architecture, or it could be old tech that was infeasible and had to wait for Moore's Law. Right now we are on the vertical part of the sawtooth pattern. Everyone hopes this will be the time that takes us to infinity, but the old people are just waiting for people to crash into the new wall.
- goalonetwo 3y agoThanks for putting this so eloquently. That's exactly how I feel as well.
- fvv 3y agoWhy things should dry up when contrary to fusion ai is already usable by millions daily ? Even if prpgress should stall a bit the product or fine-tunes or normal progress will still be super supeful , the "too soon" point has been surpassed
- actionfromafar 3y agoDepends on what you are looking for. I have this hesitation too. What we have and are on track for is useful and cool, but how far will we come in this spurt until we are back at slight incremental gains? Implementation wise in business, we are very early though. It feels like email in 1995, we have barely scratched the surface of what LLMs can mean for business and everyday life.
- blagie 3y agoA lot of previous plateaus in AI are usable and used by billions daily, for example, giving good navigation routes on your phone, managing NPCs in a video game, showing ads, or recommending movies. It's not that they don't have value -- they do, and in the trillions of dollars -- but once understood, they move from "AI" to "algorithms" and stop being exciting. The current progress feels different to me, though. The current step in capability is much higher than previous ones, as is the potential disruption.
- TheDudeMan 3y agoYes. The thing that makes the current generation of AI different is that the architectures scale. Another $10 million in training effort WILL yield improvement. And Moore’s law pairs nicely with scaling behavior. In other words, there is currently no end in sight. Plus, algo advancements like this make things happen ever faster. Plus, increased VC money means more money to throw at hardware and more folks trying new things in software. Soon we’ll be replaced :(
- Al-Khwarizmi 3y agoI think what makes the current iteration of AI different is that we don't understand how the emerging abilities work. A map navigation algorithm: we understand it, we know where the limit is (basically it cannot do anything that isn't map navigation), so it stops being exciting. GPT: we don't understand it, we don't know where the limit is... And it doesn't seem it will stop being exciting until we do.
- kybernetikos 3y agoPeople say this a lot - that we don't understand this or that, but I'm not really sure what they mean. We know exactly how these algorithms work. We know every calculation - the maths is not particularly difficult, we understand how the training process leads to information being stored in the weights, we know how inference works. What more would you want to understand before you would agree we understood it?
- 3y ago
- ReptileMan 3y agoBecause suddenly the tech moves from world transformative to world enhancing. The potential profits from trillions to mere billions. From immortality to slightly longer lifespan.
- YetAnotherNick 3y agoWe know for a fact that there is no wall till GPT 4 and open source still has long way to reach there.
- holoduke 3y agoI know. The new reddit look sucks big. But the sub reddits still give you good insights in the latest developments. I am playing arround a lot with image related stuff arround stable diffusion. Comfyui subreddit gives me daily. Now after a few weeks i think i have a fair good understanding in what is hot. Checkpoints, ipadapters, facemodels etc. Just playing arround and you will get a grasp of it. I guess its similar with text generation.
- tavavex 3y agoFYI: if you want a faster experience, https://old.reddit.com/ https://old.reddit.com/ still works perfectly
- refulgentis 3y agoI honestly don't think I could if I still had a job not in it
- benreesman 3y agoI sorta keep huggingface open next to HN now. Follow like “TheBloke” and a few others and you’ll know what’s up.
- m3kw9 3y agoYou look at the comments here to see if it’s any different or getting rave reviews. Most model are crap, the new mistral one from yesterday seem to be pretty good. But most models are not very practical or useful for anything other than amusement right now. I imagine in a year we’d get close to gpt4 models locally and with low spec requirements where a 2 series NVidia card can run.
- taneq 3y agoIs almost like everything’s accelerating exponentially.