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Texas officials warn of rolling blackouts to ease strain on power grid
- catchnear4321 3y ago> …if temperatures plummet again…
- WendyTheWillow 3y agoYeah I was confused; I live near Texas and the temperature has not gotten very cold yet, so the idea that blackouts were already in the table was a briefly alarming thought. But of course, it’s just a headline…
- adventured 3y agoNot just a headline, the article is from the Dailymail, one of the most garbage publications in Britain. It's equivalent to linking to an article on Breitbart or TMZ in terms of trashiness. The sole reason it made it to the front page so quickly is HN has an irrational obsession with the powergrid in Texas due to the politics involved.
- zelda420 3y agoThis exactly the same as 2021 when the state lost mass power. I personally lost it for 4 days.
- WendyTheWillow 3y ago“This” makes it look like blackouts are imminent; they are not.
- larrydag 3y agoThat's a big "if". The cold temperatures in Texas in 2021 was the first such experience in nearly 70 years. It was a very, very extreme condition. https://www.dallasnews.com/news/weather/2021/02/16/thousands-still-without-power-as-north-texas-reaches-record-low-temperature/ https://www.dallasnews.com/news/weather/2021/02/16/thousands...
- Retric 3y agoIt was the most extreme event but hardly the only such event. “In 2011, Texas was hit by the Groundhog Day blizzard between February 1 and 5, resulting in rolling blackouts across more than 75% of the state.” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Texas_power_crisis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Texas_power_crisis
- throw555chip 3y agoWe lived here in 2011, I don't recall any major issues with power that we experienced or what was reported on in any news broadcast. The only thing about weather I remember for 2011 was the excessively hot summer.
- Retric 3y agoIt got coverage at the time here’s one story in the middle of it: https://www.texastribune.org/2011/02/03/the-rolling-chain-of-events-behind-texas-blackouts/ https://www.texastribune.org/2011/02/03/the-rolling-chain-of... Here’s a deep dive if you want the nitty gritty details: https://www.nerc.com/pa/rrm/ea/Pages/February-2011-Southwest-Cold-Weather-Event.aspx https://www.nerc.com/pa/rrm/ea/Pages/February-2011-Southwest...
- vel0city 3y agoThe 2011 storm was absolutely nothing like the 2021 storm.
- Retric 3y ago2011 was a large scale snowstorm in Texas resulting in rolling blackouts for 5 days. It was very slightly less severe which meant people got power restored in the middle of it thus mitigating most issues, but 2021 only happened because they didn’t actually fix any of the issues revealed in 2021. https://www.nerc.com/pa/rrm/ea/Pages/February-2011-Southwest-Cold-Weather-Event.aspx https://www.nerc.com/pa/rrm/ea/Pages/February-2011-Southwest...
- Waterluvian 3y agoThe headline makes it sound like the rolling blackouts killed 200 people. But I think that implies 100% of the people who died during the cold snap died specifically due to that. I suspect it’s a much smaller nonzero value. Not to imply some sort of opinion on the matter other than my dislike of this kind of slanted writing.
- wyldfire 3y ago> But I think that implies 100% of the people who died during the cold snap died specifically due to that In fact, many more than 246 people died during this time. The 246 number from Winter Storm Uri, published by Texas Department of State Health Services is significantly undercounting the deaths during the storm which can be attributed to the storm. The number from DSHS is decomposed as - "148 as 'direct,' 92 as 'indirect' and six as 'possible,'" https://www.texastribune.org/2022/01/02/texas-winter-storm-final-death-toll-246/ https://www.texastribune.org/2022/01/02/texas-winter-storm-f... Buzzfeed suggests that the deaths are closer to 700. Buzzfeed provides code to substantiate their claims on the data - https://buzzfeednews.github.io/2021-05-tx-winter-storm-deaths/ https://buzzfeednews.github.io/2021-05-tx-winter-storm-death... https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/peteraldhous/texas-winter-storm-power-outage-death-toll https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/peteraldhous/texas-wint...
- jdgoesmarching 3y agoI’m not sure why people struggle to believe that extended power losses can result in deaths. Knowing how much Texas wanted to shove this under the rug, I’d expect extreme underreporting.
- jeffbee 3y agoNever thought I'd see a "did they die of freezing, or WITH freezing?" take. Truly the worst discourse.
- dpkirchner 3y agoI don't think they actually struggle, I think they want to be seen as struggling (virtue signaling) to try to make some point they're afraid to come out and just say.
- peepeepoopoo49 3y ago[flagged]
- pixelpoet 3y ago12 minute old account off to a great start! Remember, this guy votes.
- peepeepoopoo50 3y ago[flagged]
- ChrisClark 3y agoYou might want to join us back in reality, and stop believing everything you see on Fox News. :D
- Izkata 3y agoDon't know about the needles, but the poop thing is real in San Francisco: https://www.arcgis.com/apps/View/index.html?appid=b6fab720912642b6aedafdb02a76d2a4 https://www.arcgis.com/apps/View/index.html?appid=b6fab72091... (Zoom in on the big icons to see the individual instances reported)
- dang 3y agoPlease don't respond to a bad comment by breaking the site guidelines yourself. That only makes things worse. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
- Izkata 3y agoCalifornia does it in the summer due to heat, so kind of, and also the opposite.
- WillPostForFood 3y agoThe article is not reading the report correctly. It isn't saying there is x% chance of rolling blackouts. It isn't trying to predict the weather in December in January. It is a series of models, not a predictions. The root issue is coal and natural gas plants being retired. At 8am solar is not generating much, so if a winter storm knocks down wind again, there isn't enough production to meet morning demand. Full report here: https://www.ercot.com/files/docs/2023/10/02/Winter-2023-24-Capacity-Scarcity-Risk-Assessment.pdf https://www.ercot.com/files/docs/2023/10/02/Winter-2023-24-C... In winter, peak demands typically occur before sunrise and after sunset, when solar generation is not available to serve those peaks (except for a negligible amount), making the system dependent on wind generation and dispatchable Resource availability to serve the peak demands. [...] The ERCOT Region has also experienced a large increase in the number of thermal units that are planned to be indefinitely mothballed by the start of the 2023-24 winter Peak Load Season or will operate under a summer-only availability schedule.
- Retric 3y agoThe concern is several days of blackouts not just temporary ones at peak demand. A 2 hour long power outage isn’t that big a deal, but it gets worse for every additional hour. 2021: “More than 4.5 million homes and businesses were left without power,[9][10][11][12] some for several days. At least 246 people were killed directly or indirectly,[3] with some estimates as high as 702 killed as a result of the crisis.” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Texas_power_crisis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Texas_power_crisis “In 2011, Texas was hit by the Groundhog Day blizzard between February 1 and 5, resulting in rolling blackouts across more than 75% of the state.”
- 38 3y agoDallas here. It was honestly pretty scary. Had a night with no power and it was 4 degrees outside. Finally on the second day I was able to get a hotel room, after searching the entire previous day without luck.
- WillPostForFood 3y agoYes, that is a concern that you might have if you read the incorrect statements in the article. The article says: Now ERCOT has warned there is a 14.4 percent chance it will need to employ controlled outages in December, with the estimate rising to 16.8 percent in January. That's not what the report says. The report runs various models, and in one of the models, there is a 14% chance. That model is based on weather and production assumptions, but does not assign a probability to those assumptions.
- chollida1 3y agowell bitcoin miners will again be the winners of this. https://www.texasmonthly.com/news-politics/texas-bitcoin-miner-riot-31-million-energy-credits/#:~:text=On%20the%20bright%20side%3A%20the,for%20through%20our%20electric%20bills https://www.texasmonthly.com/news-politics/texas-bitcoin-min....
- mock-possum 3y agoObscene.
- Pingk 3y agoDoes it count as a national emergency if it starts to happen every year or two? At what point do we accept that energy companies will always neglect their infrastructure and the government has to actually invest in fixing it?
- ryandrake 3y agoSeems like a great deal for the electric companies. Profits go right into their pockets while taxpayers take care of those pesky costs. All they have to do is fail to do the one thing they’re actually asked to do and convince the public that that constitutes an emergency.
- Drakim 3y agoI wonder if laws could be passed demanding a certain uptime, with very hefty fines on failure. Want to be an electric company? Sure thing boss, but that entails obligations akin to taxi companies needing their cars to be safe to drive on public roads.
- jncfhnb 3y agoRegulators generally have discretion to impose fines and penalties as they wish
- bradknowles 3y agoUnless they're owned by the companies they're supposed to be regulating.
- jncfhnb 3y agoThey’re not
- Pingk 3y agoI should have worded my comment better. I don't like the "privatise the profits, socialise the losses" culture we've made. If they want government assistance, that means government regulation. If they don't, they don't.
- Tempest1981 3y agoI assume the Tesla factory in Austin has backup power. Any extra to help their neighbors if approved by the government?
- rezonant 3y ago[flagged]
- FredPret 3y agoMusk Derangement Syndrome
- toomuchtodo 3y agohttps://www.tesla.com/support/energy/virtual-power-plant/tesla-electric https://www.tesla.com/support/energy/virtual-power-plant/tes... (Tesla Electric Virtual Power Plant Beta with ERCOT) https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-03-08/tesla-is-plugging-a-secret-mega-battery-into-the-texas-grid https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-03-08/tesla-is-... | https://archive.is/xU9Kg https://archive.is/xU9Kg | https://www.angleton.tx.us/DocumentCenter/View/3793/Gambit-Energy-Storage-Park-FAQ?bidId= https://www.angleton.tx.us/DocumentCenter/View/3793/Gambit-E... (Gambit Energy black start installation near Houston) https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/images/figure_6_01_c.png https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/images/figure_6_01_c... (EIA monthly; draw attention to gray circles in Texas, those are battery installs in pipeline over the next year, sourced from https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/ https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/) (Tesla utility scale storage manufacturing has a 2 year backlog with a target of 40GWh/year of production) Tangentially (because there is always nuance): Texas has 100GW of solar, 50GW of batteries, and 20GW of wind in its interconnect queue. This is more than double current fossil gas generation capacity (66GW), and would add to the existing 37GW of wind generation and 18GW of solar generation. Not all projects in a queue will be built, but much of it will. ElectricityMaps.com zone data: https://app.electricitymaps.com/zone/US-TEX-ERCO https://app.electricitymaps.com/zone/US-TEX-ERCO ERCOT Nov 2023 Fact Sheet: https://www.ercot.com/files/docs/2022/02/08/ERCOT_Fact_Sheet.pdf https://www.ercot.com/files/docs/2022/02/08/ERCOT_Fact_Sheet... Terabase Energy robotic assist for deploying utility scale solar (to give an idea of how quickly solar can be deployed with state of the art techniques): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oj2zdQYXGNE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oj2zdQYXGNE
- kacetdotdev 3y agoTexas isn't part of either national grid because they wanted to dodge regulations that would prevent this. It's time to join the national grid. Also, Centerpoint, one of the main distributors, pays their CEO $40 million a year... All while we might have rolling blackouts because we can't winterize our infrastructure.
- onlyrealcuzzo 3y agoIt would probably cost $20B to winterize the Texas grid... $40M isn't really going to move the needle. It does seem excessive for a CEO of a regional distributor - though the PG&E CEO made $51M in 2021.
- kacetdotdev 3y ago[flagged]
- macromaniac 3y ago>Now ERCOT has warned there is a 14.4 percent chance it will need to employ controlled outages in December, with the estimate rising to 16.8 percent in January. No, it said that if we had the exact same disaster storm THEN we would then have a 14.4% chance of a rolling blackout at 8am. The odds of this storm could be 2% for all we know. Heres the report: https://www.ercot.com/files/docs/2023/10/10/MORA_December2023_v2.pdf https://www.ercot.com/files/docs/2023/10/10/MORA_December202... I assume our odds are better due to the winterization we put in. https://www.ercot.com/news/release/2022-01-18-final-winterization-report https://www.ercot.com/news/release/2022-01-18-final-winteriz...
- voisin 3y agoAre the people dying unhoused, or is insulation really bad such that people can’t add blankets and thick clothing to stay warm enough to survive?
- fellowniusmonk 3y agoInsulation is that bad. Yes. Whether in Turkey or Texas corrupt deregulation is a killer. I live on a main street in East Austin that had one of the longest contiguous power outages, ~72 hours, there was no cell service and no power (except verizon which would allow old school MAP SMS messages to go through irregularly), no ambulances, a friend had covid at the time and her o2 sats dropped below 80 and they still wouldn't send anyone. The roads were iced over and slick, I moved to Texas as an adult from a cold weather region and it's just a different environment here in terms of failure to maintain roads and the freeze/thaw cycle that makes roads insanely slick with re-frozen water. The local children's hospital had doctors shitting in buckets in the halls. All over the city water mains were broken, apartment complexes and homes flooded, power lines down. My part of town is a combination of multi-million dollar homes owned by tech people such as myself and homes built in the 40s and 50s with no insulation. On day 2 my wife made a big pot of soup with distilled water we had on hand because water pressure in the city was low and they advised not to run water. Our gas was still on (others also lost gas) and we opened the windows in the kitchen so we wouldn't poison ourselves, we carted the soup around the neighborhood, it was a complete horror show. We met one elderly man who started panicking after he realized we had no power and weren't the authorities and there was no timelines and no mobilization for aid, we were just at the mercy of the weather, he had had no communication with anyone and had been huddled in bed freezing, unable to draw blood to check his insulin because he was too cold so he had been randomly injecting himself with insulin. A complete breakdown of public services with 0 communication in and out and zero official presence. I have been in third world countries after monsoons and disasters and often there is a sense that at least someone is paying attention or bringing aid, this was a complete breakdown of government and infrastructure, I have never seen anything like it and I also lived through the 100yr flood in Nashville as well. Austin was just a bunch of housed and employed people quietly dying because our government is anti-humanist. At least we have warming centers now.
- lopkeny12ko 3y agoThe article didn't specify, so I checked current temperatures. It's 16 degrees celsius in Dallas right now. Many countries (and even local USA states) would laugh at someone who even describes that as "cold." Why does this constitute a state of emergency? What is going on in Texas?
- nateglims 3y agoThe Texas grid is independently managed and has very little capacity over interconnects to Mexico or the other US grids. This has previously been presented as a way to avoid federal regulation. This prevents them from drawing excess power from regions unaffected by unusual cold or other events.
- onetimeuse92304 3y agoIt constitutes a state of emergency in Texas because Texas is not ready to deal with this. There is no infrastructure at all. People do not know how to deal with cold. And most importantly, buildings are not designed to deal with it. So normally, this wouldn't be a huge deal. People would just pull out space heaters they use once in a decade. Unfortunately Texas does not have that ability either because the grid has not been maintained and expanded to meet the demand. And here is the crux of the problem.
- cosmic_quanta 3y agoAccording to the article, blackouts are _forecasted_ for December and January. I don't get the sense that this is about the weather today
- moribvndvs 3y agoThey are forecasting a 14% chance of needing to use them in December and 16% in January, not actively doing them right this second.
- vel0city 3y agoA 14% and 16% chance if another massive storm hits.
- Animats 3y agoHas anything been done to winterize the Texas natural gas system? Natural gas comes out of the ground with water in it, and is piped around wet until it reaches a processing plant that removes water.[1] Everything upstream of water-removal is vulnerable to frozen water.[2] So, where freezing is a possibility, water removal needs to be near the wells, or it's possible to accept some freeze shutdowns and use more downstream storage. Texas used to have a climate where that wasn't a problem. This is all well understood. There are plenty of natural gas operations in cold climates. So how is Texas doing on improving their system? [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glycol_dehydration https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glycol_dehydration [2] https://www.theverge.com/2021/2/17/22287130/texas-natural-gas-production-power-outages-frozen https://www.theverge.com/2021/2/17/22287130/texas-natural-ga...
- kulahan 3y agoaccording to "RRC", which I guess is TX's regulatory commission for energy, winterizing is being done aggressively[1], as of Jan '22: >About 98% of the facilities visited had been winterized. The remaining 2% or so were in the process of winterizing at the time when RRC visited them in the last few months. [1]https://www.rrc.texas.gov/news/011922-natural-gas-winterization/ https://www.rrc.texas.gov/news/011922-natural-gas-winterizat...
- vel0city 3y agoRRC = Railroad Commission, which is the top level of government in charge of a lot of energy things.
- pests 3y agoPlot line in the show The Son starting Piercce Brosnan. A plot line in loved getting a family member appointed to the railroad commission to control oil distribution.
- fbdab103 3y agoNot sure I take the RRC's word for things. Of the new winterization standards, gas suppliers did not have requirements to do anything. From [0] >Analyses after Uri revealed that a lack of winterization in the electric and gas sectors was a critical cause of systemwide failure. The Texas legislature enacted new winterization requirements for electricity generators. But it did not do the same for natural gas producers, which provide fuel to about 40% of Texas power plants and weren’t able to deliver during the storm. > Since then, Texas saw significant drops in natural gas production during winter cold snaps in January and February 2022. As happened during Uri, production at many gas wells was halted because water and other liquids that come to the surface with the natural gas froze when they hit a frozen wellhead, creating an ice dam and stopping the flow of gas into pipelines. >...(jumping to 2022 Christmas cold snap) >Additionally, Texas natural gas production is estimated to have fallen by almost 20 percent on Dec. 23 from the week before, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance. [0] https://theconversation.com/two-years-after-its-historic-deep-freeze-texas-is-increasingly-vulnerable-to-cold-snaps-and-there-are-more-solutions-than-just-building-power-plants-198494 https://theconversation.com/two-years-after-its-historic-dee...
- adrianmonk 3y agoTexan here. Some things to know about this general topic: (1) After the huge power outages in February 2021, state government promised various improvements (weatherization, etc.) would be made. Trust in them is low, but it's true that in the next winter (2022), we didn't have any significant power outages. We also didn't have such extreme cold weather, though. (2) The state's population has increased rapidly in the last decade, and construction of power plants has not kept pace. This is one of the main reasons for the outages. (3) Because of (2), price volatility has been crazy. Investors have added quite a lot of battery storage to the grid recently hoping to capitalize on this volatility. (It's buy low, store, sell high.) We had record demand this last summer because the insane heat wave, and the batteries helped us ride that out with no significant outages[1]. (4) Texas has a big budget surplus, and in the recent election, there were several propositions of the form "should Texas spend X billion dollars on Y?" One of them was Proposition 7, which creates a $10 billion fund for the grid, mainly power generation. It passed[2]. Basically only fossil fuel plants are eligible, and true to form for Texas government, they did not mention that on the ballot. In my own opinion, since it will take time to build more generation, we are probably not in great shape for the next few years, but there does seem to be deliberate action that should move us in the direction of reliability. When it comes to renewability and climate change, the state doesn't seem to care about that, but at least (through dumb luck) we are getting some grid battery storage as a consolation prize. (I support efforts to fight climate change, so I'm trying to find a silver lining here.) --- [1] https://www.utilitydive.com/news/battery-storage-texas-reliability-grid-benefits/695982/ https://www.utilitydive.com/news/battery-storage-texas-relia... [2] https://www.reuters.com/world/us/texans-pass-amendment-that-aims-enhance-electric-grid-reliability-2023-11-08/ https://www.reuters.com/world/us/texans-pass-amendment-that-...
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- 404mm 3y agoRe:1 our 2022 winter was nothing like 2021. Imo that statement is just not fair. Also worth noting that we came close to rolling outages twice this summer.
- ic_fly2 3y agoLike to add some context. The 2021 event cost north of 200billion USD and killed people. A similar event, even half the magnitude, is likely, and very bad. It is also an active policy decision by Texas. This would be easily fixed by integrating into the national grid and applying some supervision to the utilities. Texas, it’s people through it’s politicians, chose this situation.
- fbdab103 3y agoTying into the national grid makes sense, but that does not strike me as an easy project. Would likely take years and many tens/hundreds of millions of dollars to get meaningful interconnects established. Plus whatever Texas->Federal code upgrades would have to come along the way.
- giantrobot 3y agoTens to hundreds of millions is less than the estimated $200 billion in damages, at least it was when I was in school. Seems like a bargain compared to even $50 billion in damages.
- bloomingeek 3y agoSadly, this is a true statement. The citizens of Texas are getting what they voted for. Even if my state offered to help with electricity, which it did in 2021, it isn't allowed because the state of Texas outlawed the help, saying: "Federal tax-dollar help, we don't need no stupid Federal tax-dollar help!" (sorry, went Blazing Saddles.) People died and the gov said it would never happen again, then made practically no changes to grid. Supposedly, the policy was created to keep the energy groups from more fed regs and taxes. In the mean time, it's roll the dice with the weather forecast and peoples lives.
- denton-scratch 3y ago> don't need no stupid Isn't that "I don't need no steenkeeng badge", from The Treasure Of The Sierra Madre? (I don't know Blazing Saddles).
- destitude 3y ago"wind turbines froze solid"... what kind of crappy misleading statement is that? Tell that to ND who has a lot of wind turbines and gets to -40F air temp or lower. Problem is the entire deregulated energy sector in TX who doesn't want to spend a dime on cold weather prevention.
- rawgabbit 3y agoThey also don't want to people to know the problem was self-inflicted to a significant extent. Many of the natural gas producers said they lost electricity so they couldn't operate. [1] Oil and natural gas systems must have power to operate in all weather conditions. Without electricity to power these operations, the wells and production facilities will not operate. No amount of insulation, flow additives or equipment housing will overcome a sustained loss of power. Oil and natural gas facilities regularly operate in a wide range of severe weather conditions, but cannot operate when they don’t have power. Loss of power was the biggest factor in natural gas production issues during Winter Storm Uri in February. When electricity supplies became short, ONCOR began rolling blackouts. If they had known who the natural gas producers were, they would have not denied electricity to them. [2] That meant that Oncor, which delivers power to the Permian Basin — the state’s most productive oil and natural gas basin — had unwittingly shut off some of the state’s power supply when it followed orders to begin the outages...simply because natural gas companies failed to fill out a form or didn’t know the form existed, company executives, regulators and experts said. If the natural gas producers didn't have electricity pulled out from them, the worst would have been avoided. [2] “In my opinion, if we had kept the supply [of natural gas] on, we would’ve had minor disruptions,” James Cisarik, chairman of the Texas Energy Reliability Council, told legislators. “[Texas] has all the assets, we just have to make sure we evaluate every link in that chain to keep it going.” [1] https://www.txoga.org/policy-issues/winterready/ https://www.txoga.org/policy-issues/winterready/ [2] https://www.texastribune.org/2021/03/18/texas-winter-storm-blackouts-paperwork/ https://www.texastribune.org/2021/03/18/texas-winter-storm-b...
- MrGuts 3y ago[flagged]
- CrzyLngPwd 3y ago[flagged]
- gustavus 3y agoI'm just saying that the same thing is happening in California with expectations of rolling blackouts... So maybe the problem is less about unregulated vs state controlled grid and is a deeper issue with multiple confounding factors.
- fellowniusmonk 3y agoSometimes a stack trace is complex, sometimes simples. The Texas case is simple. I'm sure that we'd experience complex failures as well if we could ever get around to fixing the simple ones.
- manicennui 3y agoTexas is another laughable example of the pseudo libertarian fantasy. Also this week: https://www.newsweek.com/texas-least-free-state-personal-freedom-index-1846236 https://www.newsweek.com/texas-least-free-state-personal-fre...