4 ms·

A rough guess is that Elon will pick up Ilya, with a promise to really aim for safe AGI.

alecco 3y ago
I'm starting to suspect this was all orchestrated by Google. Win-win. Google has the hardware, the data, and the models. Google only lacks OpenAI's secret refining sauce. Getting back Ilya would be the best outcome for them.
mcmcmc 3y ago
Ah yes, Elon who famously keeps all his promises without needing a court order.
whyenot 3y ago
I apologize in advance for this snarky comment, but with Elon’s track record when it comes to safety at Twitter and Tesla, I would doubt his sincerity or follow-through on AI safety.
- trashtester 3y ago
  I suppose "safety" means different things to different people. Elon seems to be of the type that cares about existential risks. One reading of him, is that he sees both Tesla, Twitter and SpaceX as tools to mitigate what he sees as existential risks. In the case of Tesla, to accelerate the development of electric cars, in the case of Twitter, to reduce the probability of civil war and in the case of SpaceX to eventually have humanity (or our descendants) spread out enough that a single catastrophic event (like a meteor, gray goo or similar) doesn't wipe us out all at once. His detractors obviously will question both his motives and methods, but if we imagine he's acting out of good faith (whether or not he's wrong), his approach to AI fits the pattern, including his story about why he helped with the startup of OpenAI in the first place. From someone with an ex-risk approach to AI safety, the first concern is, to quote Ilya from the recent Alignment Workshop "As a bare minimum, let's make it so that if the tech does 'bad things', it's because of its operators, rather than due to some unexpected behavior". In other words, for someone concerned with existential risk, even intentional "bad use" such as using AI for killer robots at a large scale in war or for a dictator to use AI to suppress a population are secondary concerns. And it appears to me that Elon and Ilya both have this outlook, while Sam may be more concerned with shorter term social impacts.
optimalsolver 3y ago
Don't do it, Ilya.
appplication 3y ago
If Ilya’s problem with Sam was that he was acting out on his own and deviating from founding principles, he’s not going to have a good time under Elon.
- CSMastermind 3y ago
  From everything I can piece together the underlying problem is that Sam defunded Ilya's alignment research because they only have so much compute and they needed all of it to keep up with the demand for ChatGPT and the APIs, especially after dev day. Ilya losing access to the GPUs he needs to do his research so that the company can service a few more customers seemed like a fundamental betrayal to him and a sign that Sam was ignoring safety in order to grow marketshare. If Elon is able to promise him the resources he needs to do his research then I think it could work out.
  - dchichkov 3y ago
    More likely that the WorldCoin project is doing poorly. With crypto and NFTs going down it could be a house of cards. And in a need of an urgent injection of money.
    - spookthesunset 3y ago
      The worldcoin thing really bugs me too. Any time there is crypto, somebody is scamming somebody else. Worldcoin is no different in this regard.
      - capableweb 3y ago
        Did you figure out the motives behind Bitcoin too while doing your research?
        jazzyjackson 3y ago
        despite being invented for non-scam purposes, it turns out to be a productivity multipler for scammers more than anyone else. and also Bitcoin might be the exception that proves the rule - every other chain or token is managed by a few insiders taking get-rich-quick marks for a ride.

I'm starting to suspect this was all orchestrated by Google. Win-win. Google has the hardware, the data, and the models. Google only lacks OpenAI's secret refining sauce. Getting back Ilya would be the best outcome for them.

mcmcmc 3y ago

Ah yes, Elon who famously keeps all his promises without needing a court order.

whyenot 3y ago

I apologize in advance for this snarky comment, but with Elon’s track record when it comes to safety at Twitter and Tesla, I would doubt his sincerity or follow-through on AI safety.

trashtester 3y ago
I suppose "safety" means different things to different people. Elon seems to be of the type that cares about existential risks. One reading of him, is that he sees both Tesla, Twitter and SpaceX as tools to mitigate what he sees as existential risks. In the case of Tesla, to accelerate the development of electric cars, in the case of Twitter, to reduce the probability of civil war and in the case of SpaceX to eventually have humanity (or our descendants) spread out enough that a single catastrophic event (like a meteor, gray goo or similar) doesn't wipe us out all at once. His detractors obviously will question both his motives and methods, but if we imagine he's acting out of good faith (whether or not he's wrong), his approach to AI fits the pattern, including his story about why he helped with the startup of OpenAI in the first place. From someone with an ex-risk approach to AI safety, the first concern is, to quote Ilya from the recent Alignment Workshop "As a bare minimum, let's make it so that if the tech does 'bad things', it's because of its operators, rather than due to some unexpected behavior". In other words, for someone concerned with existential risk, even intentional "bad use" such as using AI for killer robots at a large scale in war or for a dictator to use AI to suppress a population are secondary concerns. And it appears to me that Elon and Ilya both have this outlook, while Sam may be more concerned with shorter term social impacts.

optimalsolver 3y ago

Don't do it, Ilya.

appplication 3y ago

If Ilya’s problem with Sam was that he was acting out on his own and deviating from founding principles, he’s not going to have a good time under Elon.

CSMastermind 3y ago
From everything I can piece together the underlying problem is that Sam defunded Ilya's alignment research because they only have so much compute and they needed all of it to keep up with the demand for ChatGPT and the APIs, especially after dev day. Ilya losing access to the GPUs he needs to do his research so that the company can service a few more customers seemed like a fundamental betrayal to him and a sign that Sam was ignoring safety in order to grow marketshare. If Elon is able to promise him the resources he needs to do his research then I think it could work out.
- dchichkov 3y ago
  More likely that the WorldCoin project is doing poorly. With crypto and NFTs going down it could be a house of cards. And in a need of an urgent injection of money.
  - spookthesunset 3y ago
    The worldcoin thing really bugs me too. Any time there is crypto, somebody is scamming somebody else. Worldcoin is no different in this regard.
    - capableweb 3y ago
      Did you figure out the motives behind Bitcoin too while doing your research?
      - jazzyjackson 3y ago
        despite being invented for non-scam purposes, it turns out to be a productivity multipler for scammers more than anyone else. and also Bitcoin might be the exception that proves the rule - every other chain or token is managed by a few insiders taking get-rich-quick marks for a ride.