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Can any engineers in the field comment on whether the [very cool!] Waymo vs Cruise performance anecdotes being discussed here would have been the result of Goog

Can any engineers in the field comment on whether the [very cool!] Waymo vs Cruise performance anecdotes being discussed here would have been the result of Google's millimeter-level scanning of SF? Or is it just better algos only? Or both?

AustinDev 3y ago
Cruise vehicles have sufficient sensor payloads to produce a 'milimeter-level scanning of SF' with many fewer hours than they've been on the road there. I doubt that provides the biggest difference. It's all down the software at this point. Especially because they're not trying to do anything crazy like vision only.
- kbos87 3y ago
  We keep hearing this is crazy, but is there evidence to back that up? At this point with hundreds of thousands of Tesla vehicles logging millions of miles a month, I feel like we’d be hearing non-stop reports of destruction on the highways if it really is as crazy as the average HN reader has been led to believe.
  - trogdor 3y ago
    >with hundreds of thousands of Tesla vehicles logging millions of miles a month, I feel like we’d be hearing non-stop reports of destruction Why do you believe that Tesla vehicles are driving millions of miles a month on autopilot? I suspect that autopilot accounts for a vanishingly small percentage of Tesla miles-driven. Mostly because it sucks, but also because of how hard it is to not miss a nag on a long road trip, with the result that you are locked out of autopilot until your next stop. (Yes, even when paying attention to the road, with your hands on the wheel. Hell, autopilot locks you out if you exceed 85 mph for more than a few seconds by pressing the accelerator, such as when passing. This is true even in places where the speed limit is 85 mph, and the slower end of the flow of traffic is 95 mph.) I love the performance of my Model S Plaid. Autopilot, however, is a joke.
    - nohuck13 3y ago
      "This is true even in places where the speed limit is 85 mph, and the slower end of the flow of traffic is 95 mph." Where do you drive where the speed limit is 85 mph?
      - gambiting 3y ago
        Poland? 140km/h is the motorway speed limit. Admittedly there aren't that many Teslas here. But they are extremely popular in Germany and you see people drive them at silly speeds.
        shanti2001 3y ago
        [flagged]
        gambiting 3y ago
        >>no Care to expand?
        flohofwoe 3y ago
        "Extremely popular in Germany" is a bit of a stretch, from googling around, there are only around 40k Teslas out of 48 million cars overall in Germany (which is about 0.08%).
        gambiting 3y ago
        Well, yes - I think what I really meant was that they are extremely popular[among electric cars]. Whenever I drive through Germany and stop at an autohof all tesla chargers are always occupied, and you see quite a lot of them on the roads just driving around. But you're right, 40k is nothing in such a big country.
        BtM909 3y ago
        It's a bit of a stretch to just randomly drop some numbers... In the US in the last three Q's the marketshare of Tesla is 0,003868139%
  - Galaxeblaffer 3y ago
    the only reason we don't hear non-stop about destruction is that you're required to keep both hands on the wheel/yolk at ALL times while FSD is activated. comparing the current cameras on a Tesla to the human eye is just silly really, sure they cover 360 which is superior, but in almost any other way, the human eye is superior having better dynamic range, better contrast, better resolution and best of all, we have eye lids. if you would just sit down and think about it for 10 mins you'll realize that gimping your self driving car by using cameras only is just a very very silly proposition when we have all this cool tech like lidar essentially giving the car super powers.
    - kbos87 3y ago
      If FSD drivers were having to constantly intervene because the car couldn’t accurately map obstacles, we’d be hearing a lot more about it. I drive with FSD all the time - I could give you a list of things it needs to improve on, but not a single one has anything to do with its accuracy of understanding its surroundings.
      - space_fountain 3y ago
        I do see stories about FSD seemingly trying to drive into obstacles fairly often. It’s true that it does see most obstacles, but most is not good enough for this.
      - bumby 3y ago
        >not a single one has anything to do with its accuracy of understanding its surroundings. This has been my gripe for a long time. I feel like many in tech have conflated two problems. With current software the problem of perception (ie "understanding its surroundings") is largely solved*, but this shouldn't be conflated with the much more difficult problem of self-driving. *for sure, there have been issues with perception. A glaring example is the Uber fatality in AZ.
        kbos87 3y ago
        This exactly. Reading the comments and understanding the huge gap between perception and reality of FSD is eye opening. There are a lot of armchair experts here who wouldn’t be caught dead driving a Tesla but are so confident in their understanding of its strengths, weaknesses, and the underlying reasons.
jprete 3y ago
I’d think better algorithms. A detailed scan of a city’s streets and layout is obsolete before it’s completed. A driver (bot or not) needs very good reactions to bad situations observed in the field. And ideally a good sense for when a situation is one step from trouble. As a driver, if I can’t see through a bus then I’m going to assume a crazy pedestrian is waiting to jump in front of me. (A lot of drivers are quite bad frankly and don’t do most of the stuff you’d want someone to do if they’re directing a one-ton blunt weapon around town at 35mph.)
- giantg2 3y ago
  "A lot of drivers are quite bad frankly and don’t do most of the stuff you’d want" I'd say 90% of driving is good/safe driving is mental, with at least half of that bening based on the decision making capability. Yet our tests are mostly focused on physical ability with a small amount of memorizing a subset of the rules.
  - solardev 3y ago
    I wish we put our drivers in driving sims the way pilots have to accrue flight sim hours.
    - rrr_oh_man 3y ago
      Pilots (at least to get the PPL) train at least around 40-60 hours on a live aircraft before flying solo. That's more rigorous, yet very close in principle to what we have in place to obtain a driver's permit, I'd argue.
      - daveguy 3y ago
        I certainly didn't have 40-60 hours in a car before I got my license. Much less learning permit.
        rrr_oh_man 3y ago
        In Germany it’s 28 theory lessons, at least 12 practical lessons (including night driving and Autobahn), 1 multiple choice exam, 1 practical exam to get your driver’s license. Additionally, you need to successfully attend a full-day first aid course. The multiple choice and practical exams are not done by the school, but by an accredited / governmental institution. Each have a ~30% failure rate. Counting 1 lesson unit as 45 minutes it’s definitely not quite as rigorous as a PPL, but certainly in the same spirit, I’d argue.
amelius 3y ago
It's the sensors and Lidar.

AustinDev 3y ago

Cruise vehicles have sufficient sensor payloads to produce a 'milimeter-level scanning of SF' with many fewer hours than they've been on the road there. I doubt that provides the biggest difference. It's all down the software at this point. Especially because they're not trying to do anything crazy like vision only.

kbos87 3y ago
We keep hearing this is crazy, but is there evidence to back that up? At this point with hundreds of thousands of Tesla vehicles logging millions of miles a month, I feel like we’d be hearing non-stop reports of destruction on the highways if it really is as crazy as the average HN reader has been led to believe.
- trogdor 3y ago
  >with hundreds of thousands of Tesla vehicles logging millions of miles a month, I feel like we’d be hearing non-stop reports of destruction Why do you believe that Tesla vehicles are driving millions of miles a month on autopilot? I suspect that autopilot accounts for a vanishingly small percentage of Tesla miles-driven. Mostly because it sucks, but also because of how hard it is to not miss a nag on a long road trip, with the result that you are locked out of autopilot until your next stop. (Yes, even when paying attention to the road, with your hands on the wheel. Hell, autopilot locks you out if you exceed 85 mph for more than a few seconds by pressing the accelerator, such as when passing. This is true even in places where the speed limit is 85 mph, and the slower end of the flow of traffic is 95 mph.) I love the performance of my Model S Plaid. Autopilot, however, is a joke.
  - nohuck13 3y ago
    "This is true even in places where the speed limit is 85 mph, and the slower end of the flow of traffic is 95 mph." Where do you drive where the speed limit is 85 mph?
    - gambiting 3y ago
      Poland? 140km/h is the motorway speed limit. Admittedly there aren't that many Teslas here. But they are extremely popular in Germany and you see people drive them at silly speeds.
      - shanti2001 3y ago
        [flagged]
        gambiting 3y ago
        >>no Care to expand?
      - flohofwoe 3y ago
        "Extremely popular in Germany" is a bit of a stretch, from googling around, there are only around 40k Teslas out of 48 million cars overall in Germany (which is about 0.08%).
        gambiting 3y ago
        Well, yes - I think what I really meant was that they are extremely popular[among electric cars]. Whenever I drive through Germany and stop at an autohof all tesla chargers are always occupied, and you see quite a lot of them on the roads just driving around. But you're right, 40k is nothing in such a big country.
        BtM909 3y ago
        It's a bit of a stretch to just randomly drop some numbers... In the US in the last three Q's the marketshare of Tesla is 0,003868139%
- Galaxeblaffer 3y ago
  the only reason we don't hear non-stop about destruction is that you're required to keep both hands on the wheel/yolk at ALL times while FSD is activated. comparing the current cameras on a Tesla to the human eye is just silly really, sure they cover 360 which is superior, but in almost any other way, the human eye is superior having better dynamic range, better contrast, better resolution and best of all, we have eye lids. if you would just sit down and think about it for 10 mins you'll realize that gimping your self driving car by using cameras only is just a very very silly proposition when we have all this cool tech like lidar essentially giving the car super powers.
  - kbos87 3y ago
    If FSD drivers were having to constantly intervene because the car couldn’t accurately map obstacles, we’d be hearing a lot more about it. I drive with FSD all the time - I could give you a list of things it needs to improve on, but not a single one has anything to do with its accuracy of understanding its surroundings.
    - space_fountain 3y ago
      I do see stories about FSD seemingly trying to drive into obstacles fairly often. It’s true that it does see most obstacles, but most is not good enough for this.
    - bumby 3y ago
      >not a single one has anything to do with its accuracy of understanding its surroundings. This has been my gripe for a long time. I feel like many in tech have conflated two problems. With current software the problem of perception (ie "understanding its surroundings") is largely solved*, but this shouldn't be conflated with the much more difficult problem of self-driving. *for sure, there have been issues with perception. A glaring example is the Uber fatality in AZ.
      - kbos87 3y ago
        This exactly. Reading the comments and understanding the huge gap between perception and reality of FSD is eye opening. There are a lot of armchair experts here who wouldn’t be caught dead driving a Tesla but are so confident in their understanding of its strengths, weaknesses, and the underlying reasons.

jprete 3y ago

I’d think better algorithms. A detailed scan of a city’s streets and layout is obsolete before it’s completed. A driver (bot or not) needs very good reactions to bad situations observed in the field. And ideally a good sense for when a situation is one step from trouble. As a driver, if I can’t see through a bus then I’m going to assume a crazy pedestrian is waiting to jump in front of me. (A lot of drivers are quite bad frankly and don’t do most of the stuff you’d want someone to do if they’re directing a one-ton blunt weapon around town at 35mph.)

giantg2 3y ago
"A lot of drivers are quite bad frankly and don’t do most of the stuff you’d want" I'd say 90% of driving is good/safe driving is mental, with at least half of that bening based on the decision making capability. Yet our tests are mostly focused on physical ability with a small amount of memorizing a subset of the rules.
- solardev 3y ago
  I wish we put our drivers in driving sims the way pilots have to accrue flight sim hours.
  - rrr_oh_man 3y ago
    Pilots (at least to get the PPL) train at least around 40-60 hours on a live aircraft before flying solo. That's more rigorous, yet very close in principle to what we have in place to obtain a driver's permit, I'd argue.
    - daveguy 3y ago
      I certainly didn't have 40-60 hours in a car before I got my license. Much less learning permit.
      - rrr_oh_man 3y ago
        In Germany it’s 28 theory lessons, at least 12 practical lessons (including night driving and Autobahn), 1 multiple choice exam, 1 practical exam to get your driver’s license. Additionally, you need to successfully attend a full-day first aid course. The multiple choice and practical exams are not done by the school, but by an accredited / governmental institution. Each have a ~30% failure rate. Counting 1 lesson unit as 45 minutes it’s definitely not quite as rigorous as a PPL, but certainly in the same spirit, I’d argue.

amelius 3y ago

It's the sensors and Lidar.