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> Between 2010 and 2022, China’s GDP more than doubled, overtaking that of the U.S I’m confused - I don’t see evidence that China’s GDP has overtaken the US’s

> Between 2010 and 2022, China’s GDP more than doubled, overtaking that of the U.S I’m confused - I don’t see evidence that China’s GDP has overtaken the US’s at any point in time.

wordpad25 3y ago
It has I remember it being a big deal But because they have so many more people average standard of life is still much lower
- glitchc 3y ago
  This is fake news, China's GDP has never overtaken the US. It's coming close though and may in the future, but that's not the same thing, and the future has yet to happen.
  - Retric 3y ago
    Not fake news fake, by PPP China easily beats the US based on IMF, World Bank, and CIA estimates. The US is ahead in nominal GDP, but currency controls distort those numbers so they aren’t particularly meaningful. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nomi... PPP is relevant when you want to look at say military budgets or the relative costs of infrastructure projects. Nominal GDP is more relevant for things like government debt.
    - berserk1010 3y ago
      PPP is a stupid metric, especially in a country like China, with tofu dreg buildings, gutter oil, fake food, gym membership that could expire overnight with business and gym equipments disappearing overnight, electric cars that catch on fire and explode, etc. Yes, all these things are real and googleable
      - pokepim 3y ago
        [dead]
      - gruez 3y ago
        There are actual issues with comparing PPP numbers[1], but "tofu dreg buildings, gutter oil, fake food, [...]" isn't one of them. [1] specifically that on the world market, it doesn't really matter what the value of your goods PPP adjusted is. In the end buyers only care about the absolute value of the goods. The fact that it was made in China (and therefore gets a PPP adjustment up) is irrelevant.
      - halJordan 3y ago
        Ok, gdp by ppp is also googleable. So why are people saying its fake news. It's also quite a useful metric when you need to understand what, say, the Chinese military budget buys.
        gruez 3y ago
        >So why are people saying its fake news. It's "fake news" insofar as playing fast and loose with definitions. "GDP" without any qualifiers means nominal GDP, not PPP adjusted GDP. It'd be like claiming the unemployment rate is 6.7% (U-6 rate) when most people agree that "unemployment" refers to the U-3 rate, which currently sits at 3.6%.
        Retric 3y ago
        PPP doesn’t produce a different GDP number it’s a different approximation of the same thing. Few people complain about historic GDP in constant dollars which is really a PPP adjustment.
        gruez 3y ago
        You can make the same argument about u-3 vs u-6 unemployment
        3y ago
    - TS89 3y ago
      China is 4x the population of the US. According to the OECD data, the US ranks #1 in mean PPP household disposable income at $62,300. China doesn't even crack the top 35. For PPP Median dispoable income, US ranks #2 at $46,600 (barely below #1 luxembourg), China ranks 42 at $4,900. So in median terms an American somehow has 9.5X more disposable income than vs a Chinese person. Source; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disposable_household_and_per_capita_income https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disposable_household_and_per_c... I don't really see the GDP PPP per capita as relevant, it's based on so many assumptions. The average American has way, way more money to burn when they travel for example vs the average Chinese person. The US dollar is the world's reserve currency. There's 0 chance of China taking over the US in this role (population may shrink by half by 2060), I don't see the party that values control over all else ever allowing a free floating currency, and the concept of a bric currency is a joke, like expecting China and India to put aside their differences and make a common currency with an independent central bank... yeah right.
      - deleted 3y ago
        [deleted]
      - Retric 3y ago
        There’s a lot of different measurements of that are useful on different contexts. PPP is the same adjustment as listing historic GDP in constant dollars. If you want to living standards you might want: Per capita GDP (nominal), Per capita GDP in constant dollars, Nominal per capita GDP PPP (nominal), Per capita GDP PPP in constant dollars. Per capital GDP PPP in constant dollars is the most useful for living standards but nominal numbers are more appropriate when looking at debt loads etc etc.
    - csomar 3y ago
      This reminds of the Biden administration changing the definition of recession because it suddenly doesn't fit their narrative. Everyone here is getting upset at a metric for the exact same reason. It is a random metric but it is one and it is measuring something.
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
mempko 3y ago
It has overtaken by PPP not GDP. By GDP is only a couple years from now.
- wincy 3y ago
  If it keeps going up. There’s a good chance it’s going to decline, and by 2030 China (probably sooner) will be in economic freefall. They just don’t have the demographics to sustain economic growth.
  - hippoSquid 3y ago
    China has 1.4B people with a GDP per capita 1/6 as high as the US. There isn't any reason to think the average Chinese person will permanently keep producing 1/6th as much value as the average American. Chinese GDP growth is still about double the US at the moment. By the 2030s the US national debt will reach about $50T. Interest payments could be up to $2T per year if rates stay high. That would be unsustainable. The US would have to either cut government expenses or increase inflation to deal with the debt, both of which would hurt GDP. Both countries probably have negative outlooks in the short/medium term but I wouldn't bet against China simply due to their much larger population. Their population could start decreasing and aging but they will continue to have vastly more working age adults than the US for a long time to come.
    - logicchains 3y ago
      >There isn't any reason to think the average Chinese person will permanently keep producing 1/6th as much value as the average American It's entirely possible given how the current Chinese government has forsaken its previous commitment to economic liberalisation and is moving towards more and more state control of the economy. If it moved close enough to the approach of Maoist China (or current North Korea), it could go decades without seeing any meaningful growth in GDP per capita, much as North Korea doesn't see any significant GDP growth.
      - TapWaterBandit 3y ago

> Between 2010 and 2022, China’s GDP more than doubled, overtaking that of the U.S I’m confused - I don’t see evidence that China’s GDP has overtaken the US’s at any point in time.

wordpad25 3y ago

It has I remember it being a big deal But because they have so many more people average standard of life is still much lower

glitchc 3y ago
This is fake news, China's GDP has never overtaken the US. It's coming close though and may in the future, but that's not the same thing, and the future has yet to happen.
- Retric 3y ago
  Not fake news fake, by PPP China easily beats the US based on IMF, World Bank, and CIA estimates. The US is ahead in nominal GDP, but currency controls distort those numbers so they aren’t particularly meaningful. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nomi... PPP is relevant when you want to look at say military budgets or the relative costs of infrastructure projects. Nominal GDP is more relevant for things like government debt.
  - berserk1010 3y ago
    PPP is a stupid metric, especially in a country like China, with tofu dreg buildings, gutter oil, fake food, gym membership that could expire overnight with business and gym equipments disappearing overnight, electric cars that catch on fire and explode, etc. Yes, all these things are real and googleable
    - pokepim 3y ago
      [dead]
    - gruez 3y ago
      There are actual issues with comparing PPP numbers[1], but "tofu dreg buildings, gutter oil, fake food, [...]" isn't one of them. [1] specifically that on the world market, it doesn't really matter what the value of your goods PPP adjusted is. In the end buyers only care about the absolute value of the goods. The fact that it was made in China (and therefore gets a PPP adjustment up) is irrelevant.
    - halJordan 3y ago
      Ok, gdp by ppp is also googleable. So why are people saying its fake news. It's also quite a useful metric when you need to understand what, say, the Chinese military budget buys.
      - gruez 3y ago
        >So why are people saying its fake news. It's "fake news" insofar as playing fast and loose with definitions. "GDP" without any qualifiers means nominal GDP, not PPP adjusted GDP. It'd be like claiming the unemployment rate is 6.7% (U-6 rate) when most people agree that "unemployment" refers to the U-3 rate, which currently sits at 3.6%.
        Retric 3y ago
        PPP doesn’t produce a different GDP number it’s a different approximation of the same thing. Few people complain about historic GDP in constant dollars which is really a PPP adjustment.
        gruez 3y ago
        You can make the same argument about u-3 vs u-6 unemployment
        3y ago
  - TS89 3y ago
    China is 4x the population of the US. According to the OECD data, the US ranks #1 in mean PPP household disposable income at $62,300. China doesn't even crack the top 35. For PPP Median dispoable income, US ranks #2 at $46,600 (barely below #1 luxembourg), China ranks 42 at $4,900. So in median terms an American somehow has 9.5X more disposable income than vs a Chinese person. Source; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disposable_household_and_per_capita_income https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disposable_household_and_per_c... I don't really see the GDP PPP per capita as relevant, it's based on so many assumptions. The average American has way, way more money to burn when they travel for example vs the average Chinese person. The US dollar is the world's reserve currency. There's 0 chance of China taking over the US in this role (population may shrink by half by 2060), I don't see the party that values control over all else ever allowing a free floating currency, and the concept of a bric currency is a joke, like expecting China and India to put aside their differences and make a common currency with an independent central bank... yeah right.
    - deleted 3y ago
      [deleted]
    - Retric 3y ago
      There’s a lot of different measurements of that are useful on different contexts. PPP is the same adjustment as listing historic GDP in constant dollars. If you want to living standards you might want: Per capita GDP (nominal), Per capita GDP in constant dollars, Nominal per capita GDP PPP (nominal), Per capita GDP PPP in constant dollars. Per capital GDP PPP in constant dollars is the most useful for living standards but nominal numbers are more appropriate when looking at debt loads etc etc.
  - csomar 3y ago
    This reminds of the Biden administration changing the definition of recession because it suddenly doesn't fit their narrative. Everyone here is getting upset at a metric for the exact same reason. It is a random metric but it is one and it is measuring something.
deleted 3y ago
[deleted]

mempko 3y ago

It has overtaken by PPP not GDP. By GDP is only a couple years from now.

wincy 3y ago
If it keeps going up. There’s a good chance it’s going to decline, and by 2030 China (probably sooner) will be in economic freefall. They just don’t have the demographics to sustain economic growth.
- hippoSquid 3y ago
  China has 1.4B people with a GDP per capita 1/6 as high as the US. There isn't any reason to think the average Chinese person will permanently keep producing 1/6th as much value as the average American. Chinese GDP growth is still about double the US at the moment. By the 2030s the US national debt will reach about $50T. Interest payments could be up to $2T per year if rates stay high. That would be unsustainable. The US would have to either cut government expenses or increase inflation to deal with the debt, both of which would hurt GDP. Both countries probably have negative outlooks in the short/medium term but I wouldn't bet against China simply due to their much larger population. Their population could start decreasing and aging but they will continue to have vastly more working age adults than the US for a long time to come.
  - logicchains 3y ago
    >There isn't any reason to think the average Chinese person will permanently keep producing 1/6th as much value as the average American It's entirely possible given how the current Chinese government has forsaken its previous commitment to economic liberalisation and is moving towards more and more state control of the economy. If it moved close enough to the approach of Maoist China (or current North Korea), it could go decades without seeing any meaningful growth in GDP per capita, much as North Korea doesn't see any significant GDP growth.
    - TapWaterBandit 3y ago