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Yet Biden is trying to run on how good the economy is. (No, I don't support Trump and I don't vote republican, not that in my state this would matter, but that
by light_hue_1 3y ago
Yet Biden is trying to run on how good the economy is. (No, I don't support Trump and I don't vote republican, not that in my state this would matter, but that doesn't mean any side is beyond criticism).
Salaries are falling. My academic salary has not kept up with inflation at all; we're all way behind. Childcare is obscenely expensive. Mortgage rates are through the roof and owning a house is beyond hope for many young people now.
Things are rough out there. I fear that people will give up democracy by voting for Trump just because the economy is so bad for many people.
- diob 3y agoMy plan is to just leave the US for somewhere with a real social safety net at some point. I don't believe the US can turn things around at this point, there's just too much "tech debt" so to speak.
- UncleOxidant 3y ago> My plan is to just leave the US for somewhere with a real social safety net at some point This is a lot easier said than done. Sure you could move to Canada (for example) but better do it before you get over a certain age and you have to demonstrate that you have a certain net worth. If a lot of Americans decide to start leaving that's only going to make it harder to emigrate to other places.
- nebula8804 3y agoLeaving the US is funny, its like a ex that won't stop calling and harassing you. The US wants its taxes first before any other country collects. If you try to permanently sever ties, its a long expensive process.
- latency-guy2 3y agoTax liability only matters for people who make tons of money. Further, chances are you are not going to Burma, and rather going to another western country, and in those cases you are going to a country that has a tax treatises/agreements with the US in some form. FEIE as an example is a deduction that currently goes for around the first ~$120k you earn, you also have your standard deduction. This only applies if you have spent at least 11 months in another country. Then there's housing, foreign tax credit, and so on. In reality, most expats who earn any sort of income pay $0 to US. The only requirement is that you file every year, like all citizens to the US. Double dipping, like you're alluding to pretty much does not happen much. Relinquishing citizenship has a fee of $2350 minimum attached to it, which is hefty, but if you're giving up your citizenship, chances are that the bill is paltry compared to your supposed other benefits.
- mus1cfl0w 3y agoYou’re right to some extent but are omitting the potentially hefty exit tax depending on your net worth/income, see https://www.greenbacktaxservices.com/knowledge-center/exit-taxes-us/# https://www.greenbacktaxservices.com/knowledge-center/exit-t...
- switchbak 3y agoGrass is always greener I suppose. I look at the real tax rate and earning potential of Americans vs Canadians, and it's tough to make a case for coming to Canada. I guess if you like maple syrup and curling.
- hotnfresh 3y agoCan confirm, I did not find my dream of keeping a high-paying-by-Canadian-standards US remote job and moving my family to Canada so we could pay taxes there, spend our money there, and my kids (they actually give you a boost on immigration score!) could grow up to contribute to the Canadian economy, to be achievable. I’d have had to find a Canadian employer first to have a chance, which would mean a 40-60% pay cut (and I ain’t making FAANG money) and probably giving up remote, on top of it. Getting in’s not easy, not sure how all the obviously-first-gen immigrants working as e.g. taxi drivers in Canada got in. All refugees, maybe? Spouse had a points-granting technical degree and landed a Canadian job in that field before immigrating? They’re secretly famous artists or brain surgeons (special immigration categories) and just moonlighting for fun? Unclear.
- booleandilemma 3y agoI wonder if the Canadian government is secretly planning for a mass influx of American refugees hopping the border at some point in the future. That would be kind of ironic.
- nebula8804 3y agoWhere would you go? Isn't inflation much worse in most of Western Europe? Money is probably pouring into the US dollar because of lost confidence in other currencies. If those countries don't turn things around eventually, then will the safety net even survive your lifetime? Does SE Asia have any safety net?
- astrange 3y agoNo, Asian countries have less of a safety net than the US even. They do have cheaper healthcare and housing. (But after you've bought the housing then you want it to become less cheap, of course.)
- tempsy 3y agoI think the general strategy is to build wealth in the US on a US salary and then move to a cheaper COL location elsewhere. Was in Europe this summer. Even if inflation is comparable or worse everything was still far cheaper than the US.
- nebula8804 3y agoTons of people did that before the pandemic and moved to cheap places like Portugal, Spain, and Italy. Now those places are expensive, they are still broke (so the safety net might still go away in your lifetime), but also now the locals are hopping mad that all these 'expats' are coming and driving up real estate prices.
- tempsy 3y agoIt's more expensive but eating out is nothing like the US. Got 2 euro coffees and croissant combos in Spain all summer. Especially since tipping 20% is not expected.
- nebula8804 3y agoWhen I mean by "they are still broke" I meant governments that have to provide the safety nets. And what I meant by "expensive" was more things like real estate prices. Sorry for the confusion.
- jchonphoenix 3y agoRed/Blue politics aside, I'm fairly certain the inflationary issues you're seeing today can be root caused to loose fiscal policy from the Trump era. Biden inherited those issues and can be held accountable to fixing them, but not causing them.
- SkinTaco 3y ago"Red/Blue politics aside, I'm fairly certain it's actually completely red team's fault"
- Spivak 3y agoI think what they mean is "let's do this like a blameless postmortem" not "let's pretend that no one has ever done anything wrong." If we can't be like, "hey the current state of affairs can be traced back to X, Y, Z" without the implication that whoever did X, Y, Z is literally Satan then it's no wonder we never get anywhere.
- nonethewiser 3y agoA blameless post mortem that blames someone and doesn’t identify what actually went wrong?
- Spivak 3y agoLook, it's a two sentence comment, you're reading the blame into it. Saying that Mark pushed the change that caused the outage isn't blaming Mark. Saying that Trump (the original author, doing his best) thought that looser fiscal policy was a good idea and that Biden (the current maintainer) has to be the one to course correct due to unforeseen consequences isn't blame unless you take it as such.
- astrange 3y agoIt's caused by there being a pandemic and a war.
- 3y ago
- Mountain_Skies 3y agoHow is others voting for someone you happen to dislike giving up on democracy?
- chpatrick 3y agoBecause the guy tried to overturn the election and stage a coup when he lost. That's not very democratic.
- anonymouswacker 3y ago[flagged]
- xyzelement 3y ago//I fear that people will give up democracy by voting for Trump I am struggling to parse that sentence. Isn't people voting for whom they want the definition of democracy. Separate from how you feel about the choice that's made.
- pianoben 3y agoI understand GP as describing disillusioned people making a knowing, democratic, choice to elect someone who they believe will smash the system.
- light_hue_1 3y agoExactly. It's really hard to swallow being told that everything is great, when your lived experience is that it is obviously not great; seriously declining really. People will eventually vote for anyone who is willing to bring chaos.
- hotnfresh 3y agoI believe they’re expecting the reader to make the connection between voting for someone who’s tried to subvert the democratic process and is likely to again, and giving up on democracy. It’s very common for the person who ends a democracy to be elected to the position that lets them do it, and to be in-fact very popular when they do it.
- jayd16 3y agoThe rates are meant to curb inflation but obviously both hurt in their own way. In your mind, what policy is Biden not pursuing that he should be?
- standardUser 3y agoI don't think you're wrong about perceptions, but by virtually every fact-based metric the economy is doing fucking great. The inflation spike has been a setback, but it's a minor blip compared to the 70's (and overdue considering how low inflation was for 20 years). The long-term trend of housing costs sucks, but it pre-dates the last few administrations and most of the blame should fall on local governments.
- UncleOxidant 3y agoWe had essentially been exporting inflation to places like China for about 30 years until 2018 or so. As soon as our free trade policies changed under the previous admin it was clear that we were in for some inflation. Throw in covid and this is the result - the choice was either let the economy fall into another great depression or send checks out to people. We kind of did the latter. I think the inflation we're experiencing now is better than the alternative.
- patrick451 3y agoThat's a false dichotomy. We could have done nothing and the economy would have been. Sending people checks was only excused because of an inexcusable shutdown.
- light_hue_1 3y agoIt's not just a perception. I can tell you that every family that I know in my department, unless they're independently wealthy, is seriously hurting compared to any time in the past decade. That includes faculty and students. Metrics don't include many things. For example, the fact that your ability to buy a house has fallen dramatically. Or the fact that rents in my city have gone up 25%+ in the past 3 years and now graduate students have to share 1 bedroom homes (they use curtains to separate out the living room). Or that the cost of childcare has skyrocketed to the point where it's far higher than a mortgage.
- astrange 3y agoHome ownership is looking normal if you include places outside large cities, but those cities are where the grad students and media are. https://www.redfin.com/news/gen-z-millennial-homeownership-rate-home-purchases/ https://www.redfin.com/news/gen-z-millennial-homeownership-r...
- jmrm 3y agoThis is a western-wide situation, or at least we have the same problems in Europe, point by point.
- UncleOxidant 3y ago> Mortgage rates are through the roof relative to where they were 3 or 4 years ago they've gone up a lot. But historically, the average mortage rate has always been around 7 to 7.5% - right around where we are now. Mortgage rates seem to be reverting to mean - they'll probably overshoot a bit before they start moving back down. > owning a house is beyond hope for many young people now. Yes, prices are still way too high. This is largely due to the dearth of home building during the 2008-2014 period (great recession and aftermath). We need a lot more units built and quickly. Neither party is addressing the supply problem. Also, it's not an exclusively US problem - it's a problem in most of the developed economies of the world.
- light_hue_1 3y ago> relative to where they were 3 or 4 years ago they've gone up a lot. But historically People keep saying this. (I'm sorry, my negative reaction is definitely not your fault, I've just heard this a lot) It's getting really annoying :) If I could buy a house for what it cost in 2005 in my city I would gladly buy one at 7%. But housing is now 2.5x the cost. A 500k house at its peak in 2005 is now around 1.5M. > Yes, prices are still way too high. This is largely due to the dearth of home building during the 2008-2014 period (great recession and aftermath). We need a lot more units built and quickly. Neither party is addressing the supply problem. Also, it's not an exclusively US problem - it's a problem in most of the developed economies of the world. I don't agree that this is the cause. We haven't been building enough housing for a long time. The problem is that the US has a crazy system. Mortgages are not assumable. Nor are they portable. And they're locked in for 30 years. I don't know of any other country that has this combination of factors. That just leaves people feeling trapped and unable to move whenever rates go up. This is a policy decision that Congress and the President actively make to not free up mortgages and make them all assumable and portable. That would relax the housing market. If we're going to wait for building to catch up to fix the situation, well, it won't.
- UncleOxidant 3y ago> Mortgages are not assumable. Nor are they portable. And they're locked in for 30 years. I don't know of any other country that has this combination of factors. That just leaves people feeling trapped and unable to move whenever rates go up. It's true that people with a 3% mortgage do not want to move now if they don't absolutely have to and this is impacting supply. however... > This is a policy decision that Congress and the President actively make to not free up mortgages and make them all assumable and portable. I don't think they have the power to do this (and I'm not sure I want them to have that kind of power). You want the President and/or congress to tear up all existing mortgage agreements? That's a massive amount of power you want to hand over to the government.Maybe they could mandate that mortgages going forward be assumable with some legislation, but it would take a while for that to have an effect. > I don't know of any other country that has this combination of factors. As I understand it, in a lot of other countries (like the UK) mortgages are essentially ARMs - the rates adjust with prevailing interest rates.
- seanmcdirmid 3y agoAll of that was happening before Biden took office. Inflation for the last 10 years has been nuts, but we were slowly boiling frogs until the more recent supply crunch.
- astrange 3y agoThere wasn't any significant inflation even at zero interest rates until 2019. It was sometimes negative.
- seanmcdirmid 3y agoThat isn’t true at all. The fed was playing funky games with how they were measuring inflation, sure, but all of us living in the real world definitely could tell prices were rising.
- astrange 3y agoWhat's funny about the crank websites like Shadowstats that claim to give the real inflation rate is, they never raise their prices. If it was true that the stats were fake, you could get rich in the bond market with TIPS arbitrage, so why not try it?
- seanmcdirmid 3y agoBond rates had been less than inflation for a long time before interest rates rose. But yes, a lot of people made money getting cheap loans with interest rates below or close to inflation. It’s one of the main reasons we are in our current mess.
- booleandilemma 3y agowill give up democracy by voting Some strong cognitive dissonance going on in your comment, friend.
- mint2 3y agoInflation this time is in a big part due to corporate profits - unions and regulations are needed to give workers a fighting chance at bargaining power
- nrdvana 3y agoIt's important to remember that the pandemic and supply chain mess affected all countries fairly badly, and the US is handling it better than a majority of them. So, even though things are not good, it shows a fair amount of skill in returning the US economy to a healthy place. The other thing unfair to Biden is that Trump got credit for the unsustainable surge in stock prices after the giant republican tax cut, so it looks bad for everyone's savings as the stock settles back to a normal level.