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Volkswagen cuts jobs as demand for EVs plunges

53 points by Fervicus 3y ago

ppetty 3y ago
New car. Small car. Expensive car. And, electric car. I don’t think this is entirely an electric vehicle issue. Interest rates and high prices for small cars seems bad enough. If the specs were the same & it was gas even at a slightly lower price; I doubt VWs are hot sellers. I think this might be trust related too. It was smart for VW to pivot from previous fuel sources they gamed, but how much do you trust the specs now that they’re EVs?
bluenose69 3y ago
If the title had a "their" after the "for", it would make a bit more sense. Maybe people who want e-vehicles are just not interested in VW nowadays. VW once had quite a lot of brand loyalty, because they made good products and changed them incrementally, according to engineering decisions. That's not true now, with so many different styles being made available that it's hard to keep track, with odd finishing decisions (those horrid screens on the dashboard make it anything but a drivers' car). Heck, I saw a video of a test drive that talked about the gear shifter coming out of its attachment as the driver made an aggressive shift. I drove VWs for years, and I never one thought the gear shifter would come lose. It seems like MBAs are making decisions at VW, and not driving enthusiasts. Here's a thought for VW: electrify the car that made you so much money for so many years (the plain golf) and see what happens to your bottom line.
petee 3y ago
Is there really any surprise no one wants to pay $45000 for a compact car? What is the profit margin on EVs that its cheaper to not sell cars versus making them affordable and within reach of more customers? Edit: actually I can't tell if thats their cheapest car, VWs website sucks on mobile so I gave up. You'd think it'd be easy to just show the prices
- AniseAbyss 3y ago
  Volkswagen got big (it's in the name) with building affordable cars like the Beetle and the Golf. Compact fuel efficient cars that a nurse or teacher could afford.
  - bluedino 3y ago
    Your last sentence is interesting. Nurses make 2-3 times as much as (K-12) teachers in the USA
    - deaddodo 3y ago
      The comparison here is so vague as to be useless. There are 4 categories of nurse, and I can assure you that A) a CNA and RN (let alone an APRN) are very different jobs with different requirements and wage/salary brackets and that B) K-12 wages and requirements also vary drastically. A CNA (the second most common "nurse") most assuredly does not earn more than the average High School teacher, let alone one with any sort of seniority or departmental/administrative responsibilities. An APRN probably earns more than any blue collar field as it's a decidely high salaried white collar position.
      - bluedino 3y ago
        I have never heard of anyone referring to a CNA (certified nursing assistant) as a 'nurse' What most people mean by 'nurse' is an RN (registered nurse)
        deaddodo 3y ago
        > I have never heard of anyone referring to a CNA (certified nursing assistant) as a 'nurse' Because you represent 100%, or even a significant minority, of Americans. /s > What most people mean by 'nurse' is an RN (registered nurse) No, what you mean is that what most people encounter are RNs. The people that encounter CNAs almost definitely consider them nurses.
    - 3y ago
version_five 3y ago
Canada has given them an 11 figure subsidy to build EVs here... I wonder how that will play out if there is not the demand.
- tzs 3y ago
  The article is talking about demand in Germany, which fell because a subsidy for corporate buyers expired leading to a large drop in German corporate EV purchases. 70% of the EVs from a particular VW plant in Germany went to corporate buyers, so they are making cuts at that plant. It doesn't really have implications for other EV plants or other countries.
GenerWork 3y ago
Key part of the article: "But orders from corporate clients — which account for around 70% of the IDs built at the plant — have been plummeting since a federal subsidy for battery-powered company vehicles expired this month, one of the people said."
- ekianjo 3y ago
  [flagged]
cs702 3y ago
Correction: ...as demand for non-Tesla EVs plunges. Demand for Tesla EVs is... booming. Tesla sold 83% more cars in the most recent quarter than in the same quarter a year ago.[a] [a] https://digitalassets.tesla.com/tesla-contents/image/upload/IR/TSLA-Q2-2023-Update.pdf https://digitalassets.tesla.com/tesla-contents/image/upload/...
- bradly 3y ago
  The actual article has the following title for me: VW is cutting jobs at its German EV factory because demand is plunging The HN title is: Volkswagen cuts jobs as demand for EVs plunges Not sure why the difference but the article cites Tesla demand of one of the key reasons the demand "is plunging"
  - userbinator 3y ago
    Perhaps "as demand for its EVs plunges" would be more appropriate, if it fits within the title length limit.
- DoesntMatter22 3y ago
  Competition is coming for tesla rolls eyes
- bearjaws 3y ago
  They just cut the price on the model x and s. They have thousands of model ys with discounts on their website as they are waiting to be sold at a dealership. That not even including all the huge promotions on the model 3. I wouldn't say Tesla isn't at least slowing down based on their nearly 3 month old earnings report.
  - gambiting 3y ago
    And both model S and X have been completely discontinued in the UK due to the lack of interest. The only Tesla you can order here is a model 3, and it's got fierce competition from other brands.
ggm 3y ago
I wish there was a law to expose for all products the rate of profit, and the implicit and explicit subsidies. It's impossible to know how EV margins compare to e.g. a minivan or a golf classic ICE.
panick21_ 3y ago
Its funny how the EU is now 'investigating subsidies' in China. China has been building this sector for like 30 years. While Europeans were so proud of their diesel vehicles and how clean they were and the Germany companies endlessly talking about hydrogen and green fuels. While Europe has basically no resource extraction related to batteries or much of any battery refinement for most of that period. But now that this bears fruit for China the EU is like 'what what what, I though our brilliant hydrogen plan was gone work'.
- tooltalk 3y ago
  Its funny how the EU is now 'investigating subsidies' in China. There is nothing "new" here. The EU warned against China's "funny" NEV policies back in 2018 -- see the EU's WTO complaint WT/DS549, "China — Certain Measures on the Transfer of Technology." You could also tell that Biden's response (aka, the IRA, enacted in 2022) to clean energy was inspired by and modeled on China's "funny" NEV policies -- ensuring that no Chinese EV/battery company set their foot in the territory, or receive tax credit/subsides. The EU is at least playing by the book. China has been building this sector for like 30 years I wonder why forced tech transfer and other highly discriminatory/anti-competitive protectionist measures were necessary if China had so much time to build the sector. While Europe has basically no resource extraction related to batteries or much of any battery refinement for most of that period. The West wants clean energy, but doesn't want to get their hands dirty. As usual, they outsource all the dirty work of resource acquisition, mining, refining to the 3rd world -- let China pollute their land, air, water for clean energy!
  - panick21_ 3y ago
    Subsidizing some technology or another isn't new. The US electric car subsidies and other policies date back further then 2018. And Europe has plenty of subsidies for their car industry, with the car industry being politically powerful. > if China had so much time to build the sector. Because its not just about cars, its everything from mine to the battery. And their policies weren't that anti-competitive, European and US car makers made a lot of money in China for quite a while and they didn't transfer much EV technology. > let China pollute their land, air, water for clean energy! Or lets actually take responsibility for the policy we have and act accordingly.
rj45jackattack 3y ago
I'm sure current interest rates have nothing to do with it :/
- b112 3y ago
  That's a good point. Likely, rates have mostly peaked. There will potentially be downward pressure soon. On top of that, many cars are hard to get. Low production, backlogged demand. This means fewer deals on finance and lease rates. I remember 0% lease and finance rates, 15 years ago when the interest rate was this high, because car companies wanted to move product. But now they have no need, not with them unable to supply demand. So my point is, I decided to keep my current car longer. Rates matter.
  - Fervicus 3y ago
    > rates have mostly peaked What is this based on? I am not so sure if I believe that. Canada's inflation rate jumped to 4% last month (although a lot of that was apparently due to an increase in gasoline prices).
    - b112 3y ago
      It is not 4% per month, that is the yearly rate, as a current value. And it didn't "jump", it went up a tiny bit. Target inflation for the Bank of Canada is around 2% yearly. The bank did not increase rates the last round, and inflation is dramatically down from a year ago. It wants to ensure it doesn't over correct.
      - Fervicus 3y ago
        Fair points and I stand corrected in some of my wording. But that still doesn't explain why rates have "mostly peaked". It is equally possible that we are nowhere near the peak.
        b112 3y ago
        Many infatuationary pressures have eased. I could write a bunch of things here, but you'd get a better look if you googled on why the bank of canada has eased off a bit on rate increases. Of course, the future is an unknown, but inflation is about half what it was a year ago. Heck, there has been some talk of deflation! A lot of stuff peaked due to supply, and those prices could drop dramatically.
Nevermark 3y ago
It is always strange to see a large industry getting disrupted, in slow motion, in plain sight. The problem is, the leader of a new product direction has not just perfected the new tech, but identified and grown a new market segment and captured a new customer base. The followers not only have to catch up with technology, but find new market segments with latent customers for their version of the new technology. After the original company scooped up all the low hanging market fruit. That is a sneaky double whammy they don't plan for when they initially wait things out.
cf141q5325 3y ago
I am not so sure this is a bad thing. Electric vehicles still seem to be part of the same pattern of planed obsolesce and profitable waste production. Looking at the production and expected lifetime sustainability seems little more then an image from the marketing campaign. Not a surprise but maybe something worth mentioning given the hype.
- elif 3y ago
  My daily driver is over a decade old and has only ever entered a tire shop. It was the first generation of EV. When should I plan it's obsolescence? What is your experience with EV expiration that leads you to your conclusion? Please inform me in any form other than links to idle speculation by obviously biased parties like Motor Trend etc.
  - sitkack 3y ago
    Jesus cool down. You know modern car production produces junk that mostly will fall apart in 10 years. First generation of anything are overbuilt by modern mba product engineering practices. I have a 2011 Nissan Leaf that I hope to still be using in another 10 years.
  - sixstringtheory 3y ago
    How many miles are on it? City/hwy?
  - cf141q5325 3y ago
    Thanks for the feedback, thats great to hear. I was referencing the battery production and lifetime. As well as the reasonable to expect overall lifetime and repair ability. How many decades do you expect to use it? Given what goes into these batteries and the inability to recycle the components, sustainable is quite questionable. This is a stop gap that only solves a very specific metric, fossil fuels. There is also an economic incentive to sell more stuff to a limited numbers of customers. Thats visible with most products, its just market forces so i dont expect EV to magically withstand that. We likely need actually more sustainable (as in designed for) but that goes counter to market forces. edit: To give examples for the general trend, i have two saws from the same maker, the newer one with a difficult to replicate plastic clip holding the sawblade. Defect controller board for mid-bikes would officially mean replacing the motor. Printers and phones dont need to be mentioned. Given fiduciary responsibility to their shareholders you cant expect much else. New models are designed and need to be sold. Thats problematic given the materials used.
makeitdouble 3y ago
> At the same time, Volkswagen is following Tesla, BMW AG and others in exporting an EV from lower-cost China to Europe. Its Cupra brand has announced plans to produce the Tavascan SUV at a factory in Anhui. Built on the same hardware and software platforms as the ID series, the model is due to hit the European market in 2024. So, once again the only country to manufacture cutting edge technology goods at scale and at a reasonable cost ends up being China. The geopolitical landscape when China's EV domination fully expends will be something else entirely...
drumhead 3y ago
The EU will do what they did when the Japanese car industry was about to crush it, they'll slap tariffs on Chinese EV imports to protect Thier domestic industry until they're in a position to be competitive.
- oblio 3y ago
  > The EU will do what they did when the Japanese car industry was about to crush it, they'll slap tariffs on Chinese EV imports to protect Thier domestic industry until they're in a position to be competitive. Yes, the US would never, ever... Oh, wait! They did: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voluntary_export_restraint#1981_Automobile_VER https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voluntary_export_restraint#198... https://www.jec.senate.gov/reports/99th%20Congress/The%20Legacy%20of%20the%20Japanese%20Voluntary%20Export%20Restraints%20(1362).pdf https://www.jec.senate.gov/reports/99th%20Congress/The%20Leg...
vsskanth 3y ago
Demand for (VW) EVs plunges. It's important to note that their EVs have been universally panned with reviewers straight up recommending NOT to buy VW EVs due to all the software bugs
surfingdino 3y ago
EVs are a hard sell. Range anxiety is not an issue, but the charging infrastructure is. The cost is also too high for the average buyer at this time.
- pornel 3y ago
  Germany has a very good charging infrastructure. Fastned and Ionity networks are along all major routes, and have tons of 300kW chargers.
- yieldcrv 3y ago
  yeah everything non-Tesla is a complete non-starter for me until they actually use the harmonized charging network, so I guess the 2025 models? Tesla models are a somewhat starter, too few options in look and then the price and its a weird quagmire, the people that can afford to live in dense high cost of livings cities are the exact target audience for EV’s but have the most perplexing and inconvenient charging arrangements, while suburban homeowners are like “I just slow charge everynight to an AC outlet in my garage, you’ll never notice the range, its not an issue bro” completely oblivious about the problem then once the harmonized charging network takes off, its not even clear if the electric grid can handle it, which isnt my problem for sure, but funny to think about. solve this issue and the next one comes quickly
  - surfingdino 3y ago
    There is another problem--multi-level parking operators are banning EVs on the grounds of safety and weight.
  - thatfrenchguy 3y ago
    This is not an issue in Europe fwiw, all cars use CCS2 there. In most european cities you probably have a parking garage if you have a car (and sure you have to deal with the HOA), street parking is an absolute nightmare there.
    - yieldcrv 3y ago
bilsbie 3y ago
Range and price still holding me back. I’d love to own one otherwise.
- sircastor 3y ago
  I’d encourage you to log your actual driving for a week or two, along with how long your vehicle sits idle. Most range anxiety (IMO) is a supposed of opportunity cost rather than actual risk. Like companies assuming piracy is equal to a lost sale. It might be true in some cases, but not all. Also, most late model EVs offer a couple hundred miles on a single charge.
  - axpy 3y ago
    That and also most people want the biggest battery for road trip and stuffs but fail to realize that the bigger battery only help you on the first leg of the trip as once you need to stop, you are limited by charging speed and not the battery size. When I bough mine, the dealer obviously was pushing for the big battery but after looking at longer trip planning in ABRP, I realize that the difference between the big and small battery was basically a few minutes for a 6h trip.
holoduke 3y ago
Who is buying a new car these days anyway? Maybe the older generation who are living in their cheap paid off homes. But i dont know anyone below 50 who ever bought a new car. 50k for a small refrigerator? Compared to a 10 year old bigger car for 15k with similar operating costs and no hassle.
- paulryanrogers 3y ago
  Having mostly owned 10+yo cars, there is a significant repair cost that randomly recurs. And the frequency trends upward with the car age.
- User23 3y ago
  I bought a new car in April of 2020 and it was a screaming deal. Paid 3k under MSRP for a prestige trim and the total price was in the 20s. Maybe your friends just don't know a buying opportunity when it comes around?
  - dagw 3y ago
    I bought a new car in April of 2020 2020 hardly counts as "these days"
  - micah94 3y ago
    Same. Buying a car is a significant purchase for me and I only do it when I'm able to get a deal and mainly buy used. 2020 was ridiculous. I basically named my price.
  - oblio 3y ago
    Yeah, try that in 2023 and get back to me.
- MrZander 3y ago
  The past few years have been some of the historically best times ever for buying new cars. Used cars are crazy expensive right now[1] [1] https://www.motor1.com/news/688040/used-cars-more-expensive-2019-study/ https://www.motor1.com/news/688040/used-cars-more-expensive-...
siffland 3y ago
Working in Tech, I love a lot about electric cars. I just have a few issues I cannot seem to overcome (this is a personal ME thing about EV's and some new gas vehicles, your mileage may vary....pun intended). All new cars spy on you (well most do), but EV's are completely software driven and seem to be more intrusive. I want a car I can connect to the internet when I want to for updates and that is it. I also want android auto and the apple one for my wife, I do not want a proprietary (Tesla) entertainment system. I want right to repair. It is my car if I spend that much on it, I want to do to it whatever I want. I want all the equipment in the car to work when i purchase it and no monthly fees (I get it for XM Radio, I am talking like seat heaters and such). For some reason it also irritates me Tesla can increase mileage with a flip of a switch (Like they were going to do in Florida for a hurricane a while back). So you are telling me they could of been build with smaller batteries and save money and the environment, but they were not so you could have a software upgrade (or was that a monthly payment as well). Also the fact Tesla can remote disable my vehicle, and purchased upgrades do not transfer to the new owner. I can probably go on and on with my whining, but that is why i still have 2 gas guzzlers and a motorcycle (newest vehicle is 2008, 2005 Honda van has 270,000 miles on it). They are paid for an yes a little maintenance here and there but that is not enough to make me spend $30k + on an electric vehicle.
- dzhiurgis 3y ago
  > I also want android auto and the apple one for my wife, I do not want a proprietary (Tesla) entertainment system. Having used Carplay recently after few months in Tesla I couldn't believe how crap it was. Can't pinch and zoom map, can't use maps on your phone while you navigate (how do I add additional stop without using screen), it wouldn't connect about 10% of drives. Overall UX is feels about a decade behind - a bit like OEM systems before Carplay.
  - lotsoweiners 3y ago
    Yeah I completely agree with you and I’ve never driven any Tesla. CarPlay is an extension of your phone and somewhere between an Apple Watch and an iPhone. There are so many situations I experience where if CarPlay had like 10% functionality it would feel like a must have game changer. Instead it just feels like a pretty good maps UI (regardless of which maps platform you use) with an ok but severely limited music UI.
Bud 3y ago
[dead]
jeremiahbuckley 3y ago
Considering how many times our 5yo VW has been in the shop for major system breaks, I wouldn’t want to get a whole-new-drivetrain VW without massive warranty protection. We have a 15yo Toyota that’s been in the shop far less. Plus, (a) reviews for the electric VW aren’t impressed, (b) [charging] network matters, (c) pay the VW “premium” for first-gen tech? Seems like a poor bet.
wolverine876 3y ago
The corporate news is the same story, over and over: Cut 5-15% of workforce because of the 'economy'. Meanwhile the economy keeps doing well, so people are making money. I suspect there's another reason for the cuts, but the following is just BS. I'm hoping someone knows something substantive - a paper, a book, a term for it, etc.: I often see a new management philosophy of hyper-aggression and disdain for all but money, treating labor (and nursing home patients, healthcare patients, journalism, students, etc.) as commodities to squeeze rather than contributors (and human beings and social goods) to value; treating profit as an outcome of squeezing every dollar/euro possible from everything rather than innovating productivity for society. No, it hasn't always been that way; remember Silicon Valley leaders treating their employees with respect, with flat hierarchies, 20% time dedicated to personal projects, etc etc.
- ianai 3y ago
  US has had decades of thumping the mantra “MBAs are the smartest people on earth, just give them whatever they want and they'll solve all problems.” (edit-this was at the highest levels of government.) That idea has come home to roost. Lo and behold, those MBAs think non-MBAs are dime a dozen (even phds) and smart people are all in management. (They also thought computers and automation would eventually make every non-management position obsolete or commoditized.) The law long ago turned on workers largely too. HR takes managements side unless the manager is literally breaking the law and the worker has an airtight case with evidence and especially witnesses. So to be an employee means you need an understanding of the law on par with an entire HR department or learn to always say “yes.”
  - listenallyall 3y ago
    I think you are misplacing blame in this situation. Electric cars really are not in high demand among the American public. MBA-types, looking at straight economic viability, would never have supported EVs as far as we have. No, it's been massive support from government, primarily, in the form of price subsidies, fuel economy minimums that have forced many gasoline models to be discontinued, gasoline taxes, and unending messaging and pressure about climate change that has artificially created demand. The first wave of people already own EVs, subsidies are ending, further demand is drying up.

53 points by Fervicus 3y ago

New car. Small car. Expensive car. And, electric car. I don’t think this is entirely an electric vehicle issue. Interest rates and high prices for small cars seems bad enough. If the specs were the same & it was gas even at a slightly lower price; I doubt VWs are hot sellers. I think this might be trust related too. It was smart for VW to pivot from previous fuel sources they gamed, but how much do you trust the specs now that they’re EVs?

bluenose69 3y ago

If the title had a "their" after the "for", it would make a bit more sense. Maybe people who want e-vehicles are just not interested in VW nowadays. VW once had quite a lot of brand loyalty, because they made good products and changed them incrementally, according to engineering decisions. That's not true now, with so many different styles being made available that it's hard to keep track, with odd finishing decisions (those horrid screens on the dashboard make it anything but a drivers' car). Heck, I saw a video of a test drive that talked about the gear shifter coming out of its attachment as the driver made an aggressive shift. I drove VWs for years, and I never one thought the gear shifter would come lose. It seems like MBAs are making decisions at VW, and not driving enthusiasts. Here's a thought for VW: electrify the car that made you so much money for so many years (the plain golf) and see what happens to your bottom line.

petee 3y ago

Is there really any surprise no one wants to pay $45000 for a compact car? What is the profit margin on EVs that its cheaper to not sell cars versus making them affordable and within reach of more customers? Edit: actually I can't tell if thats their cheapest car, VWs website sucks on mobile so I gave up. You'd think it'd be easy to just show the prices

AniseAbyss 3y ago
Volkswagen got big (it's in the name) with building affordable cars like the Beetle and the Golf. Compact fuel efficient cars that a nurse or teacher could afford.
- bluedino 3y ago
  Your last sentence is interesting. Nurses make 2-3 times as much as (K-12) teachers in the USA
  - deaddodo 3y ago
    The comparison here is so vague as to be useless. There are 4 categories of nurse, and I can assure you that A) a CNA and RN (let alone an APRN) are very different jobs with different requirements and wage/salary brackets and that B) K-12 wages and requirements also vary drastically. A CNA (the second most common "nurse") most assuredly does not earn more than the average High School teacher, let alone one with any sort of seniority or departmental/administrative responsibilities. An APRN probably earns more than any blue collar field as it's a decidely high salaried white collar position.
    - bluedino 3y ago
      I have never heard of anyone referring to a CNA (certified nursing assistant) as a 'nurse' What most people mean by 'nurse' is an RN (registered nurse)
      - deaddodo 3y ago
        > I have never heard of anyone referring to a CNA (certified nursing assistant) as a 'nurse' Because you represent 100%, or even a significant minority, of Americans. /s > What most people mean by 'nurse' is an RN (registered nurse) No, what you mean is that what most people encounter are RNs. The people that encounter CNAs almost definitely consider them nurses.
  - 3y ago

version_five 3y ago

Canada has given them an 11 figure subsidy to build EVs here... I wonder how that will play out if there is not the demand.

tzs 3y ago
The article is talking about demand in Germany, which fell because a subsidy for corporate buyers expired leading to a large drop in German corporate EV purchases. 70% of the EVs from a particular VW plant in Germany went to corporate buyers, so they are making cuts at that plant. It doesn't really have implications for other EV plants or other countries.

GenerWork 3y ago

Key part of the article: "But orders from corporate clients — which account for around 70% of the IDs built at the plant — have been plummeting since a federal subsidy for battery-powered company vehicles expired this month, one of the people said."

ekianjo 3y ago
[flagged]

cs702 3y ago

Correction: ...as demand for non-Tesla EVs plunges. Demand for Tesla EVs is... booming. Tesla sold 83% more cars in the most recent quarter than in the same quarter a year ago.[a] [a] https://digitalassets.tesla.com/tesla-contents/image/upload/IR/TSLA-Q2-2023-Update.pdf https://digitalassets.tesla.com/tesla-contents/image/upload/...

bradly 3y ago
The actual article has the following title for me: VW is cutting jobs at its German EV factory because demand is plunging The HN title is: Volkswagen cuts jobs as demand for EVs plunges Not sure why the difference but the article cites Tesla demand of one of the key reasons the demand "is plunging"
- userbinator 3y ago
  Perhaps "as demand for its EVs plunges" would be more appropriate, if it fits within the title length limit.
DoesntMatter22 3y ago
Competition is coming for tesla rolls eyes
bearjaws 3y ago
They just cut the price on the model x and s. They have thousands of model ys with discounts on their website as they are waiting to be sold at a dealership. That not even including all the huge promotions on the model 3. I wouldn't say Tesla isn't at least slowing down based on their nearly 3 month old earnings report.
- gambiting 3y ago
  And both model S and X have been completely discontinued in the UK due to the lack of interest. The only Tesla you can order here is a model 3, and it's got fierce competition from other brands.

ggm 3y ago

I wish there was a law to expose for all products the rate of profit, and the implicit and explicit subsidies. It's impossible to know how EV margins compare to e.g. a minivan or a golf classic ICE.

panick21_ 3y ago

Its funny how the EU is now 'investigating subsidies' in China. China has been building this sector for like 30 years. While Europeans were so proud of their diesel vehicles and how clean they were and the Germany companies endlessly talking about hydrogen and green fuels. While Europe has basically no resource extraction related to batteries or much of any battery refinement for most of that period. But now that this bears fruit for China the EU is like 'what what what, I though our brilliant hydrogen plan was gone work'.

tooltalk 3y ago
Its funny how the EU is now 'investigating subsidies' in China. There is nothing "new" here. The EU warned against China's "funny" NEV policies back in 2018 -- see the EU's WTO complaint WT/DS549, "China — Certain Measures on the Transfer of Technology." You could also tell that Biden's response (aka, the IRA, enacted in 2022) to clean energy was inspired by and modeled on China's "funny" NEV policies -- ensuring that no Chinese EV/battery company set their foot in the territory, or receive tax credit/subsides. The EU is at least playing by the book. China has been building this sector for like 30 years I wonder why forced tech transfer and other highly discriminatory/anti-competitive protectionist measures were necessary if China had so much time to build the sector. While Europe has basically no resource extraction related to batteries or much of any battery refinement for most of that period. The West wants clean energy, but doesn't want to get their hands dirty. As usual, they outsource all the dirty work of resource acquisition, mining, refining to the 3rd world -- let China pollute their land, air, water for clean energy!
- panick21_ 3y ago
  Subsidizing some technology or another isn't new. The US electric car subsidies and other policies date back further then 2018. And Europe has plenty of subsidies for their car industry, with the car industry being politically powerful. > if China had so much time to build the sector. Because its not just about cars, its everything from mine to the battery. And their policies weren't that anti-competitive, European and US car makers made a lot of money in China for quite a while and they didn't transfer much EV technology. > let China pollute their land, air, water for clean energy! Or lets actually take responsibility for the policy we have and act accordingly.

rj45jackattack 3y ago

I'm sure current interest rates have nothing to do with it :/

b112 3y ago
That's a good point. Likely, rates have mostly peaked. There will potentially be downward pressure soon. On top of that, many cars are hard to get. Low production, backlogged demand. This means fewer deals on finance and lease rates. I remember 0% lease and finance rates, 15 years ago when the interest rate was this high, because car companies wanted to move product. But now they have no need, not with them unable to supply demand. So my point is, I decided to keep my current car longer. Rates matter.
- Fervicus 3y ago
  > rates have mostly peaked What is this based on? I am not so sure if I believe that. Canada's inflation rate jumped to 4% last month (although a lot of that was apparently due to an increase in gasoline prices).
  - b112 3y ago
    It is not 4% per month, that is the yearly rate, as a current value. And it didn't "jump", it went up a tiny bit. Target inflation for the Bank of Canada is around 2% yearly. The bank did not increase rates the last round, and inflation is dramatically down from a year ago. It wants to ensure it doesn't over correct.
    - Fervicus 3y ago
      Fair points and I stand corrected in some of my wording. But that still doesn't explain why rates have "mostly peaked". It is equally possible that we are nowhere near the peak.
      - b112 3y ago
        Many infatuationary pressures have eased. I could write a bunch of things here, but you'd get a better look if you googled on why the bank of canada has eased off a bit on rate increases. Of course, the future is an unknown, but inflation is about half what it was a year ago. Heck, there has been some talk of deflation! A lot of stuff peaked due to supply, and those prices could drop dramatically.

Nevermark 3y ago

It is always strange to see a large industry getting disrupted, in slow motion, in plain sight. The problem is, the leader of a new product direction has not just perfected the new tech, but identified and grown a new market segment and captured a new customer base. The followers not only have to catch up with technology, but find new market segments with latent customers for their version of the new technology. After the original company scooped up all the low hanging market fruit. That is a sneaky double whammy they don't plan for when they initially wait things out.

cf141q5325 3y ago

I am not so sure this is a bad thing. Electric vehicles still seem to be part of the same pattern of planed obsolesce and profitable waste production. Looking at the production and expected lifetime sustainability seems little more then an image from the marketing campaign. Not a surprise but maybe something worth mentioning given the hype.

elif 3y ago
My daily driver is over a decade old and has only ever entered a tire shop. It was the first generation of EV. When should I plan it's obsolescence? What is your experience with EV expiration that leads you to your conclusion? Please inform me in any form other than links to idle speculation by obviously biased parties like Motor Trend etc.
- sitkack 3y ago
  Jesus cool down. You know modern car production produces junk that mostly will fall apart in 10 years. First generation of anything are overbuilt by modern mba product engineering practices. I have a 2011 Nissan Leaf that I hope to still be using in another 10 years.
- sixstringtheory 3y ago
  How many miles are on it? City/hwy?
- cf141q5325 3y ago
  Thanks for the feedback, thats great to hear. I was referencing the battery production and lifetime. As well as the reasonable to expect overall lifetime and repair ability. How many decades do you expect to use it? Given what goes into these batteries and the inability to recycle the components, sustainable is quite questionable. This is a stop gap that only solves a very specific metric, fossil fuels. There is also an economic incentive to sell more stuff to a limited numbers of customers. Thats visible with most products, its just market forces so i dont expect EV to magically withstand that. We likely need actually more sustainable (as in designed for) but that goes counter to market forces. edit: To give examples for the general trend, i have two saws from the same maker, the newer one with a difficult to replicate plastic clip holding the sawblade. Defect controller board for mid-bikes would officially mean replacing the motor. Printers and phones dont need to be mentioned. Given fiduciary responsibility to their shareholders you cant expect much else. New models are designed and need to be sold. Thats problematic given the materials used.

makeitdouble 3y ago

> At the same time, Volkswagen is following Tesla, BMW AG and others in exporting an EV from lower-cost China to Europe. Its Cupra brand has announced plans to produce the Tavascan SUV at a factory in Anhui. Built on the same hardware and software platforms as the ID series, the model is due to hit the European market in 2024. So, once again the only country to manufacture cutting edge technology goods at scale and at a reasonable cost ends up being China. The geopolitical landscape when China's EV domination fully expends will be something else entirely...

drumhead 3y ago

The EU will do what they did when the Japanese car industry was about to crush it, they'll slap tariffs on Chinese EV imports to protect Thier domestic industry until they're in a position to be competitive.

oblio 3y ago
> The EU will do what they did when the Japanese car industry was about to crush it, they'll slap tariffs on Chinese EV imports to protect Thier domestic industry until they're in a position to be competitive. Yes, the US would never, ever... Oh, wait! They did: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voluntary_export_restraint#1981_Automobile_VER https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voluntary_export_restraint#198... https://www.jec.senate.gov/reports/99th%20Congress/The%20Legacy%20of%20the%20Japanese%20Voluntary%20Export%20Restraints%20(1362).pdf https://www.jec.senate.gov/reports/99th%20Congress/The%20Leg...

vsskanth 3y ago

Demand for (VW) EVs plunges. It's important to note that their EVs have been universally panned with reviewers straight up recommending NOT to buy VW EVs due to all the software bugs

surfingdino 3y ago

EVs are a hard sell. Range anxiety is not an issue, but the charging infrastructure is. The cost is also too high for the average buyer at this time.

pornel 3y ago
Germany has a very good charging infrastructure. Fastned and Ionity networks are along all major routes, and have tons of 300kW chargers.
yieldcrv 3y ago
yeah everything non-Tesla is a complete non-starter for me until they actually use the harmonized charging network, so I guess the 2025 models? Tesla models are a somewhat starter, too few options in look and then the price and its a weird quagmire, the people that can afford to live in dense high cost of livings cities are the exact target audience for EV’s but have the most perplexing and inconvenient charging arrangements, while suburban homeowners are like “I just slow charge everynight to an AC outlet in my garage, you’ll never notice the range, its not an issue bro” completely oblivious about the problem then once the harmonized charging network takes off, its not even clear if the electric grid can handle it, which isnt my problem for sure, but funny to think about. solve this issue and the next one comes quickly
- surfingdino 3y ago
  There is another problem--multi-level parking operators are banning EVs on the grounds of safety and weight.
- thatfrenchguy 3y ago
  This is not an issue in Europe fwiw, all cars use CCS2 there. In most european cities you probably have a parking garage if you have a car (and sure you have to deal with the HOA), street parking is an absolute nightmare there.
  - yieldcrv 3y ago

bilsbie 3y ago

Range and price still holding me back. I’d love to own one otherwise.

sircastor 3y ago
I’d encourage you to log your actual driving for a week or two, along with how long your vehicle sits idle. Most range anxiety (IMO) is a supposed of opportunity cost rather than actual risk. Like companies assuming piracy is equal to a lost sale. It might be true in some cases, but not all. Also, most late model EVs offer a couple hundred miles on a single charge.
- axpy 3y ago
  That and also most people want the biggest battery for road trip and stuffs but fail to realize that the bigger battery only help you on the first leg of the trip as once you need to stop, you are limited by charging speed and not the battery size. When I bough mine, the dealer obviously was pushing for the big battery but after looking at longer trip planning in ABRP, I realize that the difference between the big and small battery was basically a few minutes for a 6h trip.

holoduke 3y ago

Who is buying a new car these days anyway? Maybe the older generation who are living in their cheap paid off homes. But i dont know anyone below 50 who ever bought a new car. 50k for a small refrigerator? Compared to a 10 year old bigger car for 15k with similar operating costs and no hassle.

paulryanrogers 3y ago
Having mostly owned 10+yo cars, there is a significant repair cost that randomly recurs. And the frequency trends upward with the car age.
User23 3y ago
I bought a new car in April of 2020 and it was a screaming deal. Paid 3k under MSRP for a prestige trim and the total price was in the 20s. Maybe your friends just don't know a buying opportunity when it comes around?
- dagw 3y ago
  I bought a new car in April of 2020 2020 hardly counts as "these days"
- micah94 3y ago
  Same. Buying a car is a significant purchase for me and I only do it when I'm able to get a deal and mainly buy used. 2020 was ridiculous. I basically named my price.
- oblio 3y ago
  Yeah, try that in 2023 and get back to me.
MrZander 3y ago
The past few years have been some of the historically best times ever for buying new cars. Used cars are crazy expensive right now[1] [1] https://www.motor1.com/news/688040/used-cars-more-expensive-2019-study/ https://www.motor1.com/news/688040/used-cars-more-expensive-...

siffland 3y ago

Working in Tech, I love a lot about electric cars. I just have a few issues I cannot seem to overcome (this is a personal ME thing about EV's and some new gas vehicles, your mileage may vary....pun intended). All new cars spy on you (well most do), but EV's are completely software driven and seem to be more intrusive. I want a car I can connect to the internet when I want to for updates and that is it. I also want android auto and the apple one for my wife, I do not want a proprietary (Tesla) entertainment system. I want right to repair. It is my car if I spend that much on it, I want to do to it whatever I want. I want all the equipment in the car to work when i purchase it and no monthly fees (I get it for XM Radio, I am talking like seat heaters and such). For some reason it also irritates me Tesla can increase mileage with a flip of a switch (Like they were going to do in Florida for a hurricane a while back). So you are telling me they could of been build with smaller batteries and save money and the environment, but they were not so you could have a software upgrade (or was that a monthly payment as well). Also the fact Tesla can remote disable my vehicle, and purchased upgrades do not transfer to the new owner. I can probably go on and on with my whining, but that is why i still have 2 gas guzzlers and a motorcycle (newest vehicle is 2008, 2005 Honda van has 270,000 miles on it). They are paid for an yes a little maintenance here and there but that is not enough to make me spend $30k + on an electric vehicle.

dzhiurgis 3y ago
> I also want android auto and the apple one for my wife, I do not want a proprietary (Tesla) entertainment system. Having used Carplay recently after few months in Tesla I couldn't believe how crap it was. Can't pinch and zoom map, can't use maps on your phone while you navigate (how do I add additional stop without using screen), it wouldn't connect about 10% of drives. Overall UX is feels about a decade behind - a bit like OEM systems before Carplay.
- lotsoweiners 3y ago
  Yeah I completely agree with you and I’ve never driven any Tesla. CarPlay is an extension of your phone and somewhere between an Apple Watch and an iPhone. There are so many situations I experience where if CarPlay had like 10% functionality it would feel like a must have game changer. Instead it just feels like a pretty good maps UI (regardless of which maps platform you use) with an ok but severely limited music UI.

Bud 3y ago

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jeremiahbuckley 3y ago

Considering how many times our 5yo VW has been in the shop for major system breaks, I wouldn’t want to get a whole-new-drivetrain VW without massive warranty protection. We have a 15yo Toyota that’s been in the shop far less. Plus, (a) reviews for the electric VW aren’t impressed, (b) [charging] network matters, (c) pay the VW “premium” for first-gen tech? Seems like a poor bet.

wolverine876 3y ago

The corporate news is the same story, over and over: Cut 5-15% of workforce because of the 'economy'. Meanwhile the economy keeps doing well, so people are making money. I suspect there's another reason for the cuts, but the following is just BS. I'm hoping someone knows something substantive - a paper, a book, a term for it, etc.: I often see a new management philosophy of hyper-aggression and disdain for all but money, treating labor (and nursing home patients, healthcare patients, journalism, students, etc.) as commodities to squeeze rather than contributors (and human beings and social goods) to value; treating profit as an outcome of squeezing every dollar/euro possible from everything rather than innovating productivity for society. No, it hasn't always been that way; remember Silicon Valley leaders treating their employees with respect, with flat hierarchies, 20% time dedicated to personal projects, etc etc.

ianai 3y ago
US has had decades of thumping the mantra “MBAs are the smartest people on earth, just give them whatever they want and they'll solve all problems.” (edit-this was at the highest levels of government.) That idea has come home to roost. Lo and behold, those MBAs think non-MBAs are dime a dozen (even phds) and smart people are all in management. (They also thought computers and automation would eventually make every non-management position obsolete or commoditized.) The law long ago turned on workers largely too. HR takes managements side unless the manager is literally breaking the law and the worker has an airtight case with evidence and especially witnesses. So to be an employee means you need an understanding of the law on par with an entire HR department or learn to always say “yes.”
- listenallyall 3y ago
  I think you are misplacing blame in this situation. Electric cars really are not in high demand among the American public. MBA-types, looking at straight economic viability, would never have supported EVs as far as we have. No, it's been massive support from government, primarily, in the form of price subsidies, fuel economy minimums that have forced many gasoline models to be discontinued, gasoline taxes, and unending messaging and pressure about climate change that has artificially created demand. The first wave of people already own EVs, subsidies are ending, further demand is drying up.