11 ms·

When ever I see something like this I can’t help but wonder if it would have happened if EU and America hadn’t assassinated Gaddafi. I know that’s kind of a kne

When ever I see something like this I can’t help but wonder if it would have happened if EU and America hadn’t assassinated Gaddafi. I know that’s kind of a knee jerk reaction, but really what is happening in lybia now? What’s the plan? Protect the oil pipelines and just don’t look too close anymore?

_ph_ 3y ago
My impression is, that Libya is at least split into two major factions and as they are bound in their internal conflict there is no international politic any more. Which conveniently allowed the west to mostly forget about Libya. I saw a heartbreaking report about the disaster region yesterday. One interesting aspect were hints that this disaster might have stimulated more cooperation inside Libya. May be this is a starting point for sorting out their internal political problems. I would really wish it to the people of Libya.
- sokoloff 3y ago
  The US experienced a significant unifying force 22 years and 4 days ago. The effect was very clearly only temporary.
  - the-dude 3y ago
    It was still far too long.
  - csomar 3y ago
    Last time I visited the US, the TSA still exists. Pretty sure the effects have remained. Not sure about the "unifying force" fantasy though.
    - mrguyorama 3y ago
      9/11 didn't unify the USA, it was used as a cudgel to beat any defectors into submission.
      - sokoloff 3y ago
        I was in the US on Thursday September 6th and Thursday September 13th. From everything I observed in the days and weeks following, there was a massive increase in feelings and expressions of unity. (These were also temporary.)
jiofj 3y ago
Why is it a knee-jerk reaction to think that the NATO shouldn't meddle with the politics of other countries?
- totetsu 3y ago
  I mean that I haven’t kept up to date with the situation there, and I don’t know if in the past this region and this dam were administered any better or not. I’m just assuming that the NATO intervention and the fracturing of the country into civil wars is to blame here.
  - marsa 3y ago
    according to Derna's deputy mayor quoted in [1] "the dams have not been maintained since 2002", so it seems unlikely that NATO intervention is to blame (though that was my kneejerk assumption too). the situation in Libya post NATO intervention certainly contributed to the negligence, but it has been going on for years at that point. [1] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/12/infrastructure-in-libyas-derna-not-built-to-withstand-storm-deputy-mayor https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/12/infrastructure-in-l...
PedroBatista 3y ago
The "EU and America" didn't assassinate Gaddafi. If the "alternate reality" didn't already erased it, you may recall something called "Arab Spring". It's not like Gaddafi was in a stable position at the time, and even less likely he would skate the whole situation until today. Gaddafi was "assassinated" because there was a full-on civil war and the EU and America bombed the massive convoy he had sent to crush the rebellion in Benghazi and enforced a no-fly zone otherwise Gaddafi's planes would obliterate the rebel forces and the civilians living in those cities ( which started to happen, before the EU and US moved their asses ). Speaking of "assassinations", I don't think Gaddafi's forces would punish the offenders with only a slap on the wrist. Do I need to mention the shipping containers with bullet holes in the Sun at the desert full of prisoners? Everyone's "performance" has been bad, but why don't we talk about Syria/Russia dealings in Libya in the last ~5 years? which coincidentally have been the worse and more unstable years since the 2011 war? ( Not to mention the usual bottom feeders of doom that appear in these situations, ie. the Islamic State, Al-Qaeda and every other "entrepreneur" group funded by the bored Sheiks in the Arabian Peninsula?
- mcv 3y ago
  Exactly. If the EU and US hadn't stopped Gaddafi from killing his own people, the tragedy would also have been terrible. Worse than now? Better than now? Should they have known? It's impossible to say.
  - penneallagricia 3y ago
    If its impossible to say, then why intervene? If you can't prove that bombing will have net positive effects then why do it?
    - _Algernon_ 3y ago
      Is omniscience a prerequisite to reacting? Nothing would ever get done then.
      - penneallagricia 3y ago
csomar 3y ago
It's not clear. His son seemed to be heading, at the time, for a middle-east style re-construction of the country. He essentially replaced his father but the revolution didn't let anything materialize as it happened shortly after that. He still has significant support: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/12/2/libya-court-reinstates-gaddafis-son-as-presidential-candidate https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/12/2/libya-court-reinsta... > what is happening in lybia now? Nothing much. But a big problem of lack of governance is that critical infrastructure (like dams) gets neglected. > What’s the plan? No plans. > Protect the oil pipelines and just don’t look too close anymore? Clearly doesn't work but no one wanted this situation except for some people located across the Atlantic.
- weard_beard 3y ago
  Why be cryptic? We all know it’s the French we’re talking about.
  - mhalberstram 3y ago
    Something that might be relevant: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alleged_Libyan_financing_in_the_2007_French_presidential_election https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alleged_Libyan_financing_in_th...
mschuster91 3y ago
> When ever I see something like this I can’t help but wonder if it would have happened if EU and America hadn’t assassinated Gaddafi. Gaddafi would have died sooner or later anyway, and he was a kleptocrat like all other dictators were and are. > but really what is happening in lybia now? What’s the plan? Protect the oil pipelines and just don’t look too close anymore? What would be needed is an intervention force that takes over the entire country and stabilizes it similar to the current setup in Bosnia and Kosovo - the warlords are in a stalemate. The problem is, NATO is too busy with Ukraine (and even that engagement is sadly controversial enough despite there being no troops involved), the US wants to focus on China, Europe can't be arsed to actually do anything (not that we could, we can't even supply Ukraine without seriously endangering the capabilities of our own armies), the French are even more reviled than Islamists are in Africa (see the recent putsches), the African Union is more of a paper tiger that's additionally focusing on the before-mentioned putsches, and China doesn't care as it's not part of their New Belt Road. And even assuming that there would be someone interested in intervening in that shitshow, they won't get the UNSC mandate required for that, as either Russia or the US will veto such an operation. The only way that any troops will deal with Libya is when Islamists make a resurgence because that is about the only threat that neither the US, Russia nor China really want to be able to rise.
- Majromax 3y ago
  > What would be needed is an intervention force that takes over the entire country and stabilizes it An occupation force is not tenable in the modern era. Per a Washington Post article from 2004[1], the post-WW2 occupation of Germany had an initial force ratio of one occupying soldier per 40 civilians. At that level, occupying forces could assume direct command of civil structures, without needing to sign deals with the least-bad bandits or warlords in waiting to act on our behalf. Per Wikipedia, Libya's current population is a bit above 7 million. With a similar force ratio, that means an occupying force would require 175,000 soldiers. A Fermi estimate of cost is $100k/yr/soldier ($10k doesn't pay for salary, $1m is implausibly large), giving an occupation cost of $17.5bn/yr[2] before any special funding like (re)building major infrastructure projects. This kind of cost is insupportable in a modern democracy, where voters will rightly ask why 'we' should bother. Libya was not and is not an existential threat like WW2-era Germany, and we're not in the imperial/colonial era where occupying forces could loot the country to pay for its own occupation. [1] -- https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/opinions/2004/05/09/a-proven-formula-for-how-many-troops-we-need/5c6dbfc9-33f8-4648-bd07-40d244a1daa4/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/opinions/2004/05/09/a... [2] -- This is also why meaningful intervention in Haiti will not happen, if you believe the calling-for-intervention reports that civil government has more or less collapsed in that nation.
misja111 3y ago
> .. if EU and America hadn’t assassinated Gaddafi Gaddafi was assassinated by his own people. America and a few European countries gave military support to the rebels after Gaddafi had started trying to violently suppress the rebellion of his people, that is true. If they wouldn't have done that, he might have succeeded in murdering enough of his people to stay in power, who knows.
- f6v 3y ago
  Rebellions aren’t good just because they’re rebellions.
- polski-g 3y ago
  Abraham Lincoln violently suppressed a rebellion of his people.
flohofwoe 3y ago
I don't remember the EU or America assassinating Gaddafi, only that he was killed by his own people Mussolini-style.
- Ygg2 3y ago
  Rocket that blew his convoy came from NATO bombers saying they weren't behind it is asinine.
  - edgyquant 3y ago
    He wasn’t killed by rockets
    - zen_1 3y ago
      You weren't killed by the push, you were killed by the oncoming train. Big difference.
    - Ygg2 3y ago
      Sure, and when I hire an assassin I don't kill the target, I just provide the monetary support. Still makes me a killer. Even worse if I crush someone's leg to let assassin do its job.
- postsantum 3y ago
  I don't remember people being the cause of Gaddafi's assassination. There were bullets and knives actually
erfgh 3y ago
I envy you guys. It is so easy to live under the "America is to blame for everything, even floods" mentality. Everything is so easily and readily explained.
tokai 3y ago
[flagged]
segmondy 3y ago
These dams haven't been maintained since 2002. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/13/why-did-dernas-dams-break-when-storm-daniel-hit-libya https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/13/why-did-dernas-dams...
- r00fus 3y ago
  If a working government existed (ie, before the US/EU destroyed a functioning one in the 2010s) then they might have been able to fix it in the past 10 years.

_ph_ 3y ago

My impression is, that Libya is at least split into two major factions and as they are bound in their internal conflict there is no international politic any more. Which conveniently allowed the west to mostly forget about Libya. I saw a heartbreaking report about the disaster region yesterday. One interesting aspect were hints that this disaster might have stimulated more cooperation inside Libya. May be this is a starting point for sorting out their internal political problems. I would really wish it to the people of Libya.

sokoloff 3y ago
The US experienced a significant unifying force 22 years and 4 days ago. The effect was very clearly only temporary.
- the-dude 3y ago
  It was still far too long.
- csomar 3y ago
  Last time I visited the US, the TSA still exists. Pretty sure the effects have remained. Not sure about the "unifying force" fantasy though.
  - mrguyorama 3y ago
    9/11 didn't unify the USA, it was used as a cudgel to beat any defectors into submission.
    - sokoloff 3y ago
      I was in the US on Thursday September 6th and Thursday September 13th. From everything I observed in the days and weeks following, there was a massive increase in feelings and expressions of unity. (These were also temporary.)

jiofj 3y ago

Why is it a knee-jerk reaction to think that the NATO shouldn't meddle with the politics of other countries?

totetsu 3y ago
I mean that I haven’t kept up to date with the situation there, and I don’t know if in the past this region and this dam were administered any better or not. I’m just assuming that the NATO intervention and the fracturing of the country into civil wars is to blame here.
- marsa 3y ago
  according to Derna's deputy mayor quoted in [1] "the dams have not been maintained since 2002", so it seems unlikely that NATO intervention is to blame (though that was my kneejerk assumption too). the situation in Libya post NATO intervention certainly contributed to the negligence, but it has been going on for years at that point. [1] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/12/infrastructure-in-libyas-derna-not-built-to-withstand-storm-deputy-mayor https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/12/infrastructure-in-l...

PedroBatista 3y ago

The "EU and America" didn't assassinate Gaddafi. If the "alternate reality" didn't already erased it, you may recall something called "Arab Spring". It's not like Gaddafi was in a stable position at the time, and even less likely he would skate the whole situation until today. Gaddafi was "assassinated" because there was a full-on civil war and the EU and America bombed the massive convoy he had sent to crush the rebellion in Benghazi and enforced a no-fly zone otherwise Gaddafi's planes would obliterate the rebel forces and the civilians living in those cities ( which started to happen, before the EU and US moved their asses ). Speaking of "assassinations", I don't think Gaddafi's forces would punish the offenders with only a slap on the wrist. Do I need to mention the shipping containers with bullet holes in the Sun at the desert full of prisoners? Everyone's "performance" has been bad, but why don't we talk about Syria/Russia dealings in Libya in the last ~5 years? which coincidentally have been the worse and more unstable years since the 2011 war? ( Not to mention the usual bottom feeders of doom that appear in these situations, ie. the Islamic State, Al-Qaeda and every other "entrepreneur" group funded by the bored Sheiks in the Arabian Peninsula?

mcv 3y ago
Exactly. If the EU and US hadn't stopped Gaddafi from killing his own people, the tragedy would also have been terrible. Worse than now? Better than now? Should they have known? It's impossible to say.
- penneallagricia 3y ago
  If its impossible to say, then why intervene? If you can't prove that bombing will have net positive effects then why do it?
  - _Algernon_ 3y ago
    Is omniscience a prerequisite to reacting? Nothing would ever get done then.
    - penneallagricia 3y ago

csomar 3y ago

It's not clear. His son seemed to be heading, at the time, for a middle-east style re-construction of the country. He essentially replaced his father but the revolution didn't let anything materialize as it happened shortly after that. He still has significant support: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/12/2/libya-court-reinstates-gaddafis-son-as-presidential-candidate https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/12/2/libya-court-reinsta... > what is happening in lybia now? Nothing much. But a big problem of lack of governance is that critical infrastructure (like dams) gets neglected. > What’s the plan? No plans. > Protect the oil pipelines and just don’t look too close anymore? Clearly doesn't work but no one wanted this situation except for some people located across the Atlantic.

weard_beard 3y ago
Why be cryptic? We all know it’s the French we’re talking about.
- mhalberstram 3y ago
  Something that might be relevant: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alleged_Libyan_financing_in_the_2007_French_presidential_election https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alleged_Libyan_financing_in_th...

mschuster91 3y ago

> When ever I see something like this I can’t help but wonder if it would have happened if EU and America hadn’t assassinated Gaddafi. Gaddafi would have died sooner or later anyway, and he was a kleptocrat like all other dictators were and are. > but really what is happening in lybia now? What’s the plan? Protect the oil pipelines and just don’t look too close anymore? What would be needed is an intervention force that takes over the entire country and stabilizes it similar to the current setup in Bosnia and Kosovo - the warlords are in a stalemate. The problem is, NATO is too busy with Ukraine (and even that engagement is sadly controversial enough despite there being no troops involved), the US wants to focus on China, Europe can't be arsed to actually do anything (not that we could, we can't even supply Ukraine without seriously endangering the capabilities of our own armies), the French are even more reviled than Islamists are in Africa (see the recent putsches), the African Union is more of a paper tiger that's additionally focusing on the before-mentioned putsches, and China doesn't care as it's not part of their New Belt Road. And even assuming that there would be someone interested in intervening in that shitshow, they won't get the UNSC mandate required for that, as either Russia or the US will veto such an operation. The only way that any troops will deal with Libya is when Islamists make a resurgence because that is about the only threat that neither the US, Russia nor China really want to be able to rise.

Majromax 3y ago
> What would be needed is an intervention force that takes over the entire country and stabilizes it An occupation force is not tenable in the modern era. Per a Washington Post article from 2004[1], the post-WW2 occupation of Germany had an initial force ratio of one occupying soldier per 40 civilians. At that level, occupying forces could assume direct command of civil structures, without needing to sign deals with the least-bad bandits or warlords in waiting to act on our behalf. Per Wikipedia, Libya's current population is a bit above 7 million. With a similar force ratio, that means an occupying force would require 175,000 soldiers. A Fermi estimate of cost is $100k/yr/soldier ($10k doesn't pay for salary, $1m is implausibly large), giving an occupation cost of $17.5bn/yr[2] before any special funding like (re)building major infrastructure projects. This kind of cost is insupportable in a modern democracy, where voters will rightly ask why 'we' should bother. Libya was not and is not an existential threat like WW2-era Germany, and we're not in the imperial/colonial era where occupying forces could loot the country to pay for its own occupation. [1] -- https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/opinions/2004/05/09/a-proven-formula-for-how-many-troops-we-need/5c6dbfc9-33f8-4648-bd07-40d244a1daa4/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/opinions/2004/05/09/a... [2] -- This is also why meaningful intervention in Haiti will not happen, if you believe the calling-for-intervention reports that civil government has more or less collapsed in that nation.

misja111 3y ago

> .. if EU and America hadn’t assassinated Gaddafi Gaddafi was assassinated by his own people. America and a few European countries gave military support to the rebels after Gaddafi had started trying to violently suppress the rebellion of his people, that is true. If they wouldn't have done that, he might have succeeded in murdering enough of his people to stay in power, who knows.

f6v 3y ago
Rebellions aren’t good just because they’re rebellions.
polski-g 3y ago
Abraham Lincoln violently suppressed a rebellion of his people.

flohofwoe 3y ago

I don't remember the EU or America assassinating Gaddafi, only that he was killed by his own people Mussolini-style.

Ygg2 3y ago
Rocket that blew his convoy came from NATO bombers saying they weren't behind it is asinine.
- edgyquant 3y ago
  He wasn’t killed by rockets
  - zen_1 3y ago
    You weren't killed by the push, you were killed by the oncoming train. Big difference.
  - Ygg2 3y ago
    Sure, and when I hire an assassin I don't kill the target, I just provide the monetary support. Still makes me a killer. Even worse if I crush someone's leg to let assassin do its job.
postsantum 3y ago
I don't remember people being the cause of Gaddafi's assassination. There were bullets and knives actually

erfgh 3y ago

I envy you guys. It is so easy to live under the "America is to blame for everything, even floods" mentality. Everything is so easily and readily explained.

tokai 3y ago

[flagged]

segmondy 3y ago

These dams haven't been maintained since 2002. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/13/why-did-dernas-dams-break-when-storm-daniel-hit-libya https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/13/why-did-dernas-dams...

r00fus 3y ago
If a working government existed (ie, before the US/EU destroyed a functioning one in the 2010s) then they might have been able to fix it in the past 10 years.