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Retirement savings simulator
- julienreszka 3y agoWhy can't I put planned death at 130
- oleganza 3y agoBecause after 100 misery grows regardless of amount of cash on hand.
- shrimp_emoji 3y agoYep, your cells are programmed to retire by that age or nearby regardless. :p
- ryanianian 3y agoYou also cannot indicate that you have more than a million in savings. That is not an unreasonable number near the end of a working career, even for non-high-net-worth people.
- sgjohnson 3y agoWhy can’t I put planned death before the retirement age?
- faewjpofiajwifa 3y agoWhy are there so many arbitrary limits on all the inputs here? Alternative sites: https://engaging-data.com/fire-calculator/ https://engaging-data.com/fire-calculator/ https://engaging-data.com/will-money-last-retire-early/ https://engaging-data.com/will-money-last-retire-early/
- eli 3y agohttps://ficalc.app https://ficalc.app
- LVB 3y agohttps://www.cfiresim.com https://www.cfiresim.com
- readthenotes1 3y agoI'm not sure why this was downvoted as it is a very easy to use site. It helped me retire early (along with fire calc)
- wing-_-nuts 3y agoYeah, odd. Can't retire before 50. Can't save more than 100k / yr, can't have more than 1M in savings. Pretty much excluded most of the FIRE community
- notacoward 3y agoExcluded me twice. It almost seems like it's set up to allow only inputs that lead to a "you're screwed" result. Bit of an agenda, perhaps?
- footy 3y agofwiw, I (not a member of the FIRE community) added my real life inputs and did not get a "you're screwed" result.
- api 3y agoI have doubts about the survival of retirement as an institution. Fundamentally they're rooted in the fact that population growth is peaking and must peak because the Earth is not infinite. You can argue about when it peaks and how high it can go, but it must peak at some point. (Edit: Humans going to the Moon or Mars don't count. People could do that but the distances are significant enough that those are going to be mostly separate economies. They will not impact Earth's economy very much.) Population growth is the fundamental driver of GDP growth. Growth can still happen in other ways via innovation and efficiency improvements but without population growth it's going to be in the low single digits. Without significant growth, retirement just can't work. Savings can't compound enough. Taxing the rich won't provide enough and taxing the middle class will kill the economy and make the problem worse. Lastly retirement is really an institution that was born in an age when people did not live as long (on average) and work was much more physically punishing. I could certainly see a kind of semi-retirement where a person dips out of high-pressure work in favor of lower pressure intellectual work that can be completed on a looser time frame. A lifetime of experience could probably be leveraged to provide valuable insight or work on high-value niche problems in specific domains, and that can be fairly lucrative and is often very amenable to remote part-time employment. But regardless of things like that, this is a recipe for pretty significant social conflict. Young people already resent "boomers" for burdening them with cost via not just taxes but squatting on all the real estate and rigging the system to increase its value to fund their retirement. This will get worse, not better.
- alkonaut 3y agoWhy would retirement become impossible? Because humans would become unable to work 50 years and in that time save up money for another 20?
- willcipriano 3y agoYou can't now due to inflation (and inflation is higher than the gamed CPI). Those dollars you earn at the beginning will be worth pennies when you go to spend them. If you had a home you can offset this, but younger people aren't getting on the property ladder anymore due to, you guessed it, inflation. Our money isn't a durable store of value since the gold standard was abandoned, you used to be able to make up for it by investing but the line can't go up forever.
- thanatos519 3y agoThe answer is at https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/ https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/
- xnx 3y agoIf people already voluntarily live in Phoenix, climate change will be manageable for most in the US.
- yellow_lead 3y ago[flagged]
- p-a_58213 3y ago[flagged]
- hotpotamus 3y agoI didn't realize we were bumping up on the record high again. I have to say that when I look at that chart, it is hard to believe that anything matters anymore anyway, so I suppose it's fair not to worry about retirement.
- mcv 3y agoEverything matters. I don't understand why it's so hard to change anything. That's the frustrating part.
- fsloth 3y agoThe cynical person in me thinks it's because most predictions place the worst outcomes to the poorest countries on the globe, while those with highest economic impact will be affected much less. There isn't a super massive incentive to change things very fast. Also, we can't cut oil use cold turkey, as literally our whole civilization runs on it, including food production.
- mcv 3y ago
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- not_your_vase 3y agoWhy do you think that I will live till pensioner age? Based on my date and location of birth, I'm lucky if I kick around for another decade or so (and I will be still very, very far from retirement)
- imgabe 3y agoWhy? Were you born in Chernobyl in 1986 or something?
- not_your_vase 3y agoYou are creepily close. One of these details is bulls-eye, and the other not far off.
- trashtester 3y agoThe trenches are way more dangerous than the radiation, though.
- wing-_-nuts 3y agoPoor guy is living STALKER
- nailer 3y agoI'm not sure why anyone thinks they'd be able to 'retire' in a world where most people will never afford a house and will thus need to pay a landlord forever if they want to live somewhere near a major city. We have four options: - get rich - stay working forever - kill ourselves - move to the woods
- swader999 3y agoWorking on my urban foraging skills. It's hard and not fun.
- barelyauser 3y agoMy plan is pretty straightforward: - keep healthy - increase ownership of capital - achieve age escape velocity
- wonderwonder 3y agoCant even retire if you own your home outright. Still got to pay property tax
- pc86 3y agoAssuming social security exists 30/40/50 years from now, unless you live in one of a half dozen most expensive areas in the country, SS is several times more than your property tax liability.
- wonderwonder 3y ago
- BizarreByte 3y agoProvided I never sell my house I can't create a scenario in this where my retirement doesn't work out. If I have to rent though? It's a very different situation.
- yodsanklai 3y agoDid you consider scenarios with high inflation and high housing tax...
- wincy 3y agoAt least where I live the elderly can’t lose their house from failure to pay housing taxes.
- pc86 3y agoThis sounds good in theory but what are the options? 1. You can forgive the taxes in which case everyone else in the tax jurisdiction just pays this person's taxes indirectly. 2. You can lien the property and pass the bill on to the estate, in which case you're either having the heirs pay the taxes (and late fees, and interest) with extra steps, or if no heirs the buyer pays less for the property and the end result is basically #1.
- positr0n 3y agoI don’t see how a lien is the same as #1. Say retired couple owns a $500k home and can't pay $5k/yr property tax. They will live for 10 more years. With no lien, they are forced to sell and buy a cheaper $450k house, using the equity to pay property taxes. When they die, heirs get $450k. With the lien, in 10 years the estate sells the house and the heirs receive $450k after paying the back taxes. Obviously this is simplifying a lot, but I don't think the rest of society is being shortchanged by the lien mechanism. Except in the case where the unpaid taxes exceeds the value of the house.
- dahfizz 3y agoInflation highly favors those who own a house. Their mortgage payment is fixed, your rent payment goes up every year.
- swader999 3y agoDecent title.
- swozey 3y agoHow many of you have boomer parents that ruined their retirement planning and now you're paying for their rent/nursing homes? I spend $1800/mo on my 70yo mothers rent. Disgusts me. I'm also paying $3100/mo for my own rent. I don't think I'll ever be able to buy another house after selling mine in 2019. Even votes against her own interests. I'm putting my own retirement in jeopardy because of her failure to be responsible. I'm not even 40. My uncle pays his mothers nursing home, but he's 65 and she's well into her 80s. Another thing that shouldn't have to be paid for by someone else.
- reaperman 3y agoI submit without comment/intent: “Filial Responsibility Laws”: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Filial_responsibility_laws https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Filial_responsibility_laws
- swozey 3y agoI'm in CO, I have no legal filial responsibility outside of wanting my mother to not be homeless.
- reaperman 3y agoI’ve always been curious how it works across state boundaries. What if the child is in Pennsylvania and the parent is in Colorado? The reverse?
- swozey 3y agoYeah I'm not sure. I only heard that term recently and it shocked me that it was a thing. I immediately ran to see if it was a thing in CO. There's some lawsuit going on in PA where a guy who works a pretty normal income job, I think maybe he was a restaurant owner or manager. Anyway, IIRC his entire family except mother lives in Italy or somewhere overseas. He's the only one in the USA. He's being sued by her nursing home for $93k in back rent. IIRC he's lost every appeal. He had not a single thing to do with her nursing home contracts. He definitely made under 100k, I think 40-60k. I don't see it in this article and I'm too tired to dig around. https://hh-law.com/blogs/supplemental-hh-law-blogs/pa-filial-responsibility-law-are-you-your-mothers-keeper/ https://hh-law.com/blogs/supplemental-hh-law-blogs/pa-filial...
- mensetmanusman 3y agoIf you are 40, you are one of about 5 people supporting those retired. When you are retired, there will be about 2 people supporting you.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- rwmj 3y agoThese are the numbers that matter, although there are wildcards like someone inventing a "Robot & Frank"-style affordable robot that can look after the elderly.
- pc86 3y agoThese numbers only matter if you plan on subsisting entirely off of social security in retirement, which even if you are maxing out your SS taxes every year and plan on living a minimum-wage level existence in retirement, is almost impossible mathematically. If you're under 40 (maybe even 50), wrapping social security income into your retirement calculations is a fool's errand. I'm in my 30's and basically treating it as play money. If it's there I might use it to help buy a car or something in my 80s, but I'm assuming I'll get approximately $0 for everything I've paid in supporting today's retirees.
- jewayne 3y agoSocial Security is a pay-as-you-go system. Meaning it can and will pay out some level of benefits as long as there is the political will to do so. SS catastrophism is all about undermining that political will, and bringing about a self-fulfilling prophecy of collapse, to the benefit of the very wealthiest in this country. Don't buy it. Don't spread it.
- lotsofpulp 3y ago> Meaning it can and will pay out some level of benefits as long as there is the political will to do so This is trivial. But “some level of benefits” could theoretically mean using all of the nations’s productivity to support the elderly. The pertinent question is what level of wealth transfer will the working populations tolerate, especially if the current workers believe they will be getting less when it is their turn to receive.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- emddudley 3y agoThis simulation looks like it assumes that your investments stop growth upon retirement, as if you'd move them all to cash. Makes it seem like your savings won't last as long.
- badcppdev 3y agoI think this is brilliant although obviously would need a lot of work to be actually useful. My 'funny' observation is that the misery line stays at zero as long as you have money... that doesn't really match my knowledge of the ageing process. I think misery goes up at a gradual rate from age... 25?
- GoatOfAplomb 3y agoFor a quick visualization, I like Rich, Broke, or Dead (https://engaging-data.com/will-money-last-retire-early/ https://engaging-data.com/will-money-last-retire-early/) For in-depth planning, I like ficalc.app, and cfiresim.com is good, too.
- bgirard 3y ago'Rich, Broke, or Dead' made me realize that I was more likely to die early into retirement then I was to run out of money. In my case that made me realize that I'm not using my 30s effectively. I really like this visualization.
- MuffinFlavored 3y agoAs somebody in a similar situation, with this new information/perspective, what are you going to do about it? Quit your job and have unlimited free time for hobbies/travel/no responsibilities other than significant other/your own health/children (optional)?
- bgirard 3y agoHonestly just balancing the Life in WLB a lot more heavily. I think quitting work is too extreme for my situation and not beneficial if your friends are working. For me it means work less extra hours, not getting upset over set back at works, passing up on less invitations from my friends, being less hyper-frugal/cheap, etc...
- MuffinFlavored 3y ago> passing up on less invitations from my friends This is obviously a personal anecdote and ultra variable-dependent but my entire elementary school -> middle school -> high school friendbase hang out exclusively in Discord playing video games/watching sporting events digitally instead of in person. I wonder how widespread this is.
- lotsofpulp 3y ago
- verzali 3y agoAm I right that this doesn't include state pensions or social security? Not sure how it works in America, but in Europe it would at least reduce the amount you need to withdraw each year.
- MuffinFlavored 3y agoHow many people here under 35 would really stop working if they had $1.5m-$2m? With the recent bout of inflation/concerns about government's ability to maintain debt-to-GDP ratio + interest payments, I'd be worried that you're pretty much forced to constantly be worried about having to return to the workforce in some capacity (part time) eventually. Working 20-30 hours a week in whatever industry it takes to make an extra $40k-$50k/yr to get by doesn't sound so bad. There's something too daunting about the concept of "stop working, instead of seeing your net worth go up, you see it go backwards as you start to pull it/spend it during your otherwise prime earning years" I just can't convince myself is realistic for me (and maybe others) to actually pull off. Talk about online is one thing, but actually do/pull off?
- giantg2 3y agoYeah, I hope to "retire" at 50. Then find some part time job that's lower stress.
- MuffinFlavored 3y agoI don't know what your job/jobs/current culture/past cultures have been like. Obviously every job will have some problems but... being unhappy 40 hours a week+ and then thinking about your job on/off when you step away/not being able to disconnect seems like an "inefficient" way to use your "precious 20s-30s-40s-50s", especially if you could operate at a lower-stress level (less politics, less people being mean/rude, etc.) But... it's just a cruel side effect of needing to afford to live, right? Plain and simple?
- UtopiaPunk 3y ago"you're pretty much forced to constantly be worried..." This is a feature of capitalism, not a bug. Capitalists benefit by having a large pool of laborers desperate to sell their labor.
- pc86 3y agoIf your net worth starts decreasing when you retire you retired a decade too early. I know "I want to spend just enough in retirement that my last check bounces" is a funny joke and all but you have no idea how long you'll live, and no financial advisor worth the paper their business card is printed on would suggest you spend more than your investments earn in retirement.
- screye 3y agoAs old people stay healthier, there will be an increasing market of old-people-for-old-people services. Social media & the instant global marketplace have made a lot of new part-time-careers possible. There's doom and gloom around the end of human labor and the advent of AI/Automation/AGI (call it what you will). But, people's taste ossifies in early-adulthood. Our generation, once old, is going to crave experiences from a pre-AI world, and the only ones with the ability to deliver on it will be fellow millennials. In my experience, a lot of the FIRE folks are driven by paranoia and a *lack of fulfillment in their present life.* ____________________ I've been fortunate enough to have hit my limits of hedonism. A 5 star hotel relaxes me just as well as a shack. An honest meal is fulfilling irrespective of the Michelin stars to its name. My people welcome me whether I bring chocolate or not; and our conversations are just as warm over lemonade as it may be over fancy whisky. The hedonistic treadmill is infinite. It's cliche, but all good wisdom sounds like cliche. If you stop looking, you'll find yourself knee deep like low-tide on a beach. A pursuit, your people, health, a roof and a warm meal. FIRE gives you time, money and access to those 5 things that matter. But, in the absence of them, no amount of $$ FIRE $$ is going to make you happy. The first world has solved most of its issues. However, we tie happiness to owning more material belongings than our peers. In that case, FIRE will not be promised release It will merely be a moving goal post on the horizon, that keeps you going through an unfulfilling present.
- LeifCarrotson 3y agoParanoia and a lack of...what?
- screye 3y agocorrected it sorry.
- namdnay 3y agothere's a bug - in this simulation, investment interest suddenly stops at retirement age. there's no reason for that
- HDThoreaun 3y agoYep this site is totally worthless I think because of this massive bug
- marapuru 3y agoThe thing with these types of calculators for me is that I always need to do more calculations to figure out yearly spendings etc. Figure out what type of investments i have and the percentages etc. They trigger me in a negative way.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- ryandrake 3y agoNot only that, but they always require you to predict the future: When are you planning to retire? "I don't know, that's why I'm here!" When are you planning to die? "For real??" At what rate will your investments grow forever? "Let me check my crystal ball." What will your retirement expenses be? [......] These calculators always just do the simple part (the math). The part that all of us could type into Excel in 10 minutes. Not much value there.
- ghusto 3y agoWhat's retirement?
- mikewarot 3y agoThe shift away from a defined benefits program has effectively killed the idea of retirement. The theoretical possibility of better results under careful management of the individual is eclipsed by the fact that most transactions in the market are "high frequency", which effectively front-runs the market. It's the same effect as stealing from savers with 0% prime interest rates. It's all a transfer of wealth to the top 0.1%. Why do we do this to young people? It's horrible. The only reason I'm not homeless now is that my spouse managed to be in very small fraction of the workforce that still offered a pension. 401ks go in the blink of an eye if you're disabled and out of the workforce too soon.
- dave333 3y agoMy brother in law died last year and left about $2M in his will. He and my sister who died earlier spent their entire married life in a small house they paid $4000 for in 1970. They had no children and ended up with no way to spend the money. In fact I think the most pleasure he must have had was the sweet revenge he must have felt by cutting me out of his will!