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China Stops Publishing Youth Unemployment Numbers Amid Faltering Economy

opyate 3y ago
Haven't read the article, because the website is broken for me (video popups, then redirect to page with lack of content). But, can someone please tell me if "faltering" here just means "slowed growth"? If so... Analysts talking about "slowing growth" as if it's a bad thing does my head in. It becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy, doesn't it? Step 1: analysts cry wolf and say growth is slowing. Step 2: them asses withdraw their investment. Step 3: growth now slows so much that it flips and goes the other way (negative growth / shrinkage)
tatrajim 3y ago
An ominous confirmation of a massive and growing problem. Will the pioneering efforts of Guangdong province to cajole d employed youth out to the countryside be emulated elsewhere?
jncfhnb 3y ago
Can’t imagine how awful it would be to go through the shitty Chinese education system only to not get a job. How quickly will the education ethos crumble if the narrative ceases to work?
- 2-718-281-828 3y ago
  well, if you happen to be in the us then i suggest you just leave your bubble and ask two youngsters and one of them will be able to answer the question.
  - jncfhnb 3y ago
    Two youngsters will be able to speak to the future state of Chinese education ethos?
    - 2-718-281-828 3y ago
      > Can’t imagine how awful it would be to go through the shitty Chinese education system only to not get a job
      - jncfhnb 3y ago
        That is, notably, not a question, but a statement of empathy.
- hotdogscout 3y ago
  WW3 would make that irrelevant.
  - sigstoat 3y ago
    going to be a rather unenthusiastic army if it is stocked with folks who thought they were getting cushy office jobs.
  - jncfhnb 3y ago
    I really don’t see China being dumb enough to risk Russia level sanctions. They will not send troops unless sufficient coercion and circumstance make western involvement unthinkable.
    - Tade0 3y ago
      They have very little experience in that and, what's more important, their armed forces exist mostly to keep their own population in line, as evidenced with the events at Tiananmen square.
      - jncfhnb 3y ago
        Pretty sure the purpose of their army is to be an army, like pretty much every army.
        mensetmanusman 3y ago
        They spend similar %GDP as the US does on military on their own internal security. Huge money sink.
- UncleOxidant 3y ago
  Already happening: https://www.thedailybeast.com/how-lying-flat-took-chinas-overworked-millennials-by-storm https://www.thedailybeast.com/how-lying-flat-took-chinas-ove...
  - toomuchtodo 3y ago
    Also: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/26/the-rise-of-bai-lan-why-chinas-frustrated-youth-are-ready-to-let-it-rot https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/26/the-rise-of-ba... https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/20/the-last-generation-young-chinese-people-vow-not-to-have-children https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/20/the-last-gener...
  - mindcandy 3y ago
    As an expert in Chinese culture after watching a single YouTube video... "Lying Flat" apparently is making a comeback. But, it is an old idea in China. A big theme is that skill and effort are not rewarded. Connections are. So, young people see most other people meagerly getting by after busting their ass from the moment they could walk and talk. But, they also see children of well-connected Party members living in luxury and excess as spoiled brats since birth. Another theme is that while it is hard to make good money, isn't hard to live very, very cheap in major Chinese cities if you cut down to bare minimalism. So, a lot of young people are apparently saving up for mini-retirements where they just drop out for a 2-3 years at a time, because why not?
- phyrex 3y ago
  Do you have any direct experience with the Chinese education system? Aside from the gaokao, which seems unnecessarily brutal to me, I have a fairly good impression of it.
  - seanmcdirmid 3y ago
    You start working hard for your degree at a young age. My wife began intensive drawing lessons in 4th grade, which culminated in admission to a high tier art university (CAFA) later on (she had to pass an art exam in addition to getting a decent score on the gaokao...). I don't know if it is wrong, I definitely see advantages in pushing kids to be there best, but obviously not all of them are going to come out on top (given a limited top).
  - lordnacho 3y ago
    I'd like to hear more?
jacquesm 3y ago
The Chinese economy is running on vapors and if it gets any worse they'll need a distraction.
- toomuchtodo 3y ago
  The right time to leave Taiwan is sometime between now and when the first shot is fired.
  - audunw 3y ago
    If you want to leave Taiwan in the case China invades, the right time is when China makes actual preperations for an invasion. For China to execute an invasion, or even just a blockade, requires a lot of preperations that will be easily visible on satellite images. It'd be easier to see coming that Russias invasion of Ukraine, and if you remember the US told us with near certainty that Russia was going to invade just before they did. Most people with insight into Taiwan-China relations consider a blockade the likely first move. Perhaps even the only viable one. Considering the number of US citizens living/working in Taiwan, they'd probably escalate slowly in a way that would signal foreigners that they should leave the island. If no US citizens is hurt in the first strike, there's a chance US won't bother getting involved. But if China, without any warning, just lobs some missiles at major cities, and US citizens gets killed, what do you think the result would be? Seriously, we've been through this before the last time DPP was in power. The moment KMT was elected the aggressions stopped. If you look deeper at their signs of aggression, it becomes clear they're mostly for show. To keep DPP and its voter just scared enough to not make major moves towards formal independence. You know when you should actually get worried? When China starts to pick small winnable fights aimed towards training their military in real conflicts. They have zero practical experience. The PLAs last real fight was their skirmish with Vietnam that they lost with great humiliation. They need to escalate gradually to weed out issues caused by corruption and complacency. And Russia has now shown that even that might not be enough when it comes to the final big conflict. The problem for China here is that they have no viable small neighbors to pick at. Maybe Kinmen and Matsu islands, or some of Taiwans tiny remote islands with military bases. But that's very risky because it'd likely make people think they've triggered a full conflict with Taiwan which would trigger a rapid arms build-up in Taiwan along with possible crippling sanctions against China. Ideally they'd pick a fight somewhere else to make people think they're not yet focused on Taiwan. Like Russia with Georgia and Syria. China's viable strategy for taking Taiwan is just a giant contradiction: they need to go straight for Taiwans main island in a surprise attack in a way that minimizes the chance of US involment to have a remotely decent chance of success. But that excludes the possibility of gaining real practical experience they desperately need for that very same invasion, and it maximizes the risk of collateral damage to innocent US citizens.
s1artibartfast 3y ago
Here is a better article from NYT with a chart of the numbers: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/15/business/china-youth-unemployment.html https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/15/business/china-youth-unem...
- hoppyhoppy2 3y ago
  Gift Article link: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/15/business/china-youth-unemployment.html?unlocked_article_code=QiOWz82jjCNcOgx6d4j5upl_len5purw-UEkY6yM98DijVSjHMmcjW5tZxTHYmvEEcXdJyypoBpQvC0zyzjY-VEe1R9onlkZFzJIYi3N-QNuToq2IlusUqONNQpI56vNZBZ1AF8KdWpb0aY4OOG9-YmhSi2qMmYLMcgZT98bg1aUueTxGOn0XDXzuQxtmDpxNhKjUgCUOO0DVVvHqeiJ2LRKHvD7j5J2QaZmUSrf0nJG9y0j2yMrDtXTs2CAaEa4vcrmMuChZoA9-FEG9rvMsB3E_332m1ovQqggQAUwQVRue90OP6gfhxW-__UkCbRhtm9gyvB0DpSNzVN4JHfESgdIKw&smid=url-share https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/15/business/china-youth-unem...
deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
Sol- 3y ago
Isn't it in the US's interest to some degree to have a stable China rather than desperate and poor? Currently the course seems to be escalation on the economic side, with ever stricter sanctions and so on. Not to say that China doesn't have agency to correct its own mistakes or that their internal problems are on the US. Certainly a lot of their problems are on them and self-inflicted, from what I've read. But I still feel an escalatory mood from us in the west as well, which makes me uneasy. (I'm also of course aware that Chinese hardliners are very dangerous and seem to want to escalate and may want to deflect from their mistakes with Taiwan and so on. Not minimizing this, but this is nothing we can control.)
- godelski 3y ago
  > Isn't it in the US's interest to some degree to have a stable China rather than desperate and poor? Yeah, it is. That's what the last 50 years have been. Globalization is a lot of things, good and bad. We accept university students from around the world and have the top universities (ironic considering our pre-college education). The advantage to us (US) isn't just brain drain, but that those that return are vessels wherein we export our culture too[0] (the reverse happens too btw, but pressure is lower and thus tends to be more selective). Exporting labor and manufacturing isn't just about making products cheaper. This also helps poorer countries grow and escape poverty (name me a largely prosperous country who is not a significant player in the global market?). Growth (under capitalist theory) happens through the exchange of goods and services, not to be confused with money which is just the proxy for that. China's rapid growth and status today __could not__ have happened without the global market's export of labor and manufacturing to them. The issue is we all get trapped in our local thinking. We have our own agendas, want to be competitive, and due to this forget how we actually got here and how the underlying mechanisms work. Sure, there was greed and selfish behaviors operating under these systems, but there was also charity and selflessness. You can find whichever one you are looking for, and that part is key. But now China is rising to be an economic rival of the US, not a economic ally. Were it the latter, I'd wager we'd outwardly be congratulating China on its success (as we had in the years past, and in some sense still do), but behind close doors be competitive. Similar to how the best of friends can also be the fiercest of rivals. Competition is not inherently malicious. But give where we're at, there's two perspectives (realistically more, I'm simplifying) that one can take that are both equally valid and mostly true (they need not contradict). On one hand you can see China as acting as someone who bites the hand that feeds it. China of today would not exist without the west and especially the US. But on the other hand you can see China rising to power despite the US's dominance, that the west was handing over scraps which can be seen as taking advantage of China. Certainly the West in some respect has taken advantage of them, but also China did not need to play in the global market and _could_ have (idk, who does) without the "scraps"/"funding" that the West gave to it. Of course the US is nervous about a rival, they would be even if friendly. They should be. But if allies I think we would have been better able to focus on our own faults rather than pointing fear (no country is perfect. All have growth. Growth is more difficult when you're at the top. e.g. it is harder to obtain new knowledge through research than reading a book). But that's not the China we see. And maybe that's also the US's fault in some sense. There are many players and it is never one entity performing all actions. Even bad trades have to be accepted unless you can make a good argument that a gun is placed to their head (is a bad trade still "bad" if you'd be worse off without it? Fairness is a very tough subject that's incredibly complex. Way more than we give credit to). So I'll make a plea. Let's remember that a rising tide rises all ships. That all our countries can prosper through __healthy__ competition. We are able to rise to a post scarce utopian world __if__ and __ONLY IF__ we, the people of our countries, want to make that happen. They have to convince us that we are enemies. But I remind you, the difference between you and me is smaller than between us and our respective leaders. People may be dumb, but a person is smart. People may be mean, but a person and community are kind. Do not miss the trees for the forest, and make sure that you don't escalate any fires. Every decision made in this world starts with something small. Every complex object is built from simple small instructions that simply compound and grow over time and scale. Do not confuse yourself thinking that "I am only one," for you are one and each one is important to this machine built through chaos. Chaos means a small perturbation can have a large change in outcome. Remember that power. You may not be able to control the seas, but you can build a damn and you can build a harbor. Those too have large effects, even if you don't see it. Remember that your ideas are infectious. Like a virus (meme) they capture others. If you like an idea, you have the choice to be a spreader, even a superspreader. The power of social media gives us that capacity, but nature doesn't care which virus wins. People may not be able to choose which virus wins, but you, a person, does. We're only 6 degrees from one another. A pyramid scheme's failure is our advantage. But fear and lies are unbounded in simplicity, while truth is not. This is our disadvantage. == So that is our choice moving forward, and I want everyone to think about this very carefully: == the decisions we are making __now__ will dictate if we go to war and THOUSANDS or even MILLIONS of people die. ON BOTH SIDES. Friends, families, loved ones. Our countrymen as well as just dang old human beings. Each life is precious. It is a negative sum game. Not just for lives, but economics and prosperity. Pillaging may make you stronger, but the world benefits from two healthy competitors more than it benefits from one. You didn't add anything to the world, you only took something away (your rival). We can stop adding fuel to the flames now. We __have__ to stop adding now, because the more we add, the harder it is to remove. It compounds. It already has compounded a lot. But unless we have a time machine, then the best moment to act is now. This is my virus, and I hope it infects. That is our choice: utopia or (a chance at) "winning" [0] China has been very successful circumventing this. Deng took great risk when doing this. Not just re-encouraging the creation of an intellectual group, which they had just dismantled only a decade prior during Red August. But there is a reason you'll find Chinese students tend to self-isolate much more than students from other countries, even when those countries have a relatively large local community (e.g. Indians). That insulary nature is encouraged to depress cultural exchange.
1024core 3y ago
And you know what governments do when unemployment in this demographic becomes too high? Start wars. Expect some ratcheting up of tensions with Taiwan, India, Japan, etc. Followed by picking on a perceived weak adversary and a short conflict.
- amai 3y ago
  Russia didn’t attack Ukraine because of unemployment numbers. They attacked right at the moment when the oil price reached 100 dollar per barrel. All the Russian government needed are customers buying their oil and gas to pay for the war. They give a shit about their own people and the same is true for China. China will attack if they feel like they have enough reserves and their customers are so dependent on China, that they cannot sanction the regime, even when it starts a war.
tibbydudeza 3y ago
Does China have a form of social security system ???.
- seanmcdirmid 3y ago
  yes. You pay into it if you work in China (even as a foreigner, though they cut you a check for what you paid in when you leave).
wnc3141 3y ago
Anyone knowledgeable with an opinion on whether China has a mismatch between relatively high college attainment while remaining manufacturing oriented economy? In reference to this article: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/01/china-graduates-jobs-market-youth-unemployment https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/01/china-graduate...
- astrange 3y ago
  Is China a manufacturing oriented economy? For export yes, but domestically they're overdependent on real estate because it's the only thing people believe you can invest in.
- dirtyid 3y ago
  This is pretty much all there is too it. East Asian culture bias towards scholarship. PRC academic reforms increased tertiary enrollment from single digits to 60%, which at PRC scale is currently ~10m new grads a year, with ~9x bias towards STEM (~5M/yr) / S&E vs US. Meanwhile culture looks down on bluecollar work, new gen wants to credentials to push paper in air conditioned offices, like almost every where else. And they are willing to wait - PRC (especially urban) has one of highest house hold savings rate in world for stay at home kids to fuck around. Until they can't, hence broad unemployment ~5%. Hence youth unemployment eventually resolved - people resign to do work they don't want to - again like almost everywhere else. Last/next few years PRC society has been/is dealing with academic inflation that west has been dealing with decades prior. Society is eventually going to have to recalibrate expectations while state elevates prestige of blue collar / vocational work, which is happening. More broadly, the talent mismatch / demographics layer PRC currently dealing with: 1. manufacturing / skilled blue collar shortage - TLDR is qualified (prodominantly) migrant workers are aging out, or accumulated enough wealth to chill in their houses bought in 3rd / 4th tier cities and finally ditch migrant life. 2a. PRC tertiary graduation rate is still working off early 2000s cohorts of 12M+ births per year vs current 9+. It's simply a stupid fucking amount of new high skilled jobs to create. (Urban) youth unemployment stats being pulled because we're in graduate season of one of the largest tertiary cohorts into slower post covid economy and unemployment likely to reach 40%+. Which btw counts 18-24yr actively looking so realistically 10-12M out of 33M (urban) youths entering workforce (total urban youth 96m), total youth including rural (~150m). 2b. Now consider at PRC scale of current ~12m new graduates (tertiary + skilled programs), even with 50% youth unemployment, that's 6m new youths entering workforce. For reference US adds ~2M youth job around summer. This is why west should be fucking terrified PRC youth unemployment is only 20%. Or 40%. Or 50%. That and PRC unemployment is 5%, meaning most youths end up working anyway, because that's life, when you have to work, you work. Add on fact that employement in strategic sectors that directly competes with advanced economies are doing fine. TLDR is PRC is broadly leading the talent gap game. The more important point from above is understand is current high % of youth unemployment is symptom of everything WORKING MOSTLY ACCORDING TO PLAN. PRC demographers / family planning goal was for resources/education to focus on cohorts of 1-2 kid house holds to build up PRC skilled talent workforce (currently still ~25% vs 60/70/80% of advanced economies). The goal was always to absolutely SPAM the shit out of high skilled talent production for next phase of PRC development beyond manufacturing. But customary to PRC, everything state focus on = excess overcapacity. So the problem is having too MUCH talent, which is different than having too LITTLE. More specifically having too much stubborn talent. All those credentialled PRC unemployed youths are qualified to work in fairly well compensated factory jobs, but won't because they don't want to. Reverse is not true, west has generally skilled talent shortage, that humanities major can't work in a semi factory because they stimply can't. IMO this is a problem will largely sort itself out, because PRC has surplus youths with access to work they can do but won't do out of pride. And by an large, the cultural system ( live at home) supports it, i.e. PRC parents especially wealthier urban are fine with their kids fuckarounditis at home sending out resumes instead of working that temporary menial job. Which is a very different problem than most of west having surplus jobs that their youths can't fill. Also helps not having 5+ figure student loan debt or car/rent expenses that force youths in some societies too work.
nine_zeros 3y ago
Looks like my management. Hide reality. Celebrate some random BS that is meaningless.

Haven't read the article, because the website is broken for me (video popups, then redirect to page with lack of content). But, can someone please tell me if "faltering" here just means "slowed growth"? If so... Analysts talking about "slowing growth" as if it's a bad thing does my head in. It becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy, doesn't it? Step 1: analysts cry wolf and say growth is slowing. Step 2: them asses withdraw their investment. Step 3: growth now slows so much that it flips and goes the other way (negative growth / shrinkage)

tatrajim 3y ago

An ominous confirmation of a massive and growing problem. Will the pioneering efforts of Guangdong province to cajole d employed youth out to the countryside be emulated elsewhere?

jncfhnb 3y ago

Can’t imagine how awful it would be to go through the shitty Chinese education system only to not get a job. How quickly will the education ethos crumble if the narrative ceases to work?

2-718-281-828 3y ago
well, if you happen to be in the us then i suggest you just leave your bubble and ask two youngsters and one of them will be able to answer the question.
- jncfhnb 3y ago
  Two youngsters will be able to speak to the future state of Chinese education ethos?
  - 2-718-281-828 3y ago
    > Can’t imagine how awful it would be to go through the shitty Chinese education system only to not get a job
    - jncfhnb 3y ago
      That is, notably, not a question, but a statement of empathy.
hotdogscout 3y ago
WW3 would make that irrelevant.
- sigstoat 3y ago
  going to be a rather unenthusiastic army if it is stocked with folks who thought they were getting cushy office jobs.
- jncfhnb 3y ago
  I really don’t see China being dumb enough to risk Russia level sanctions. They will not send troops unless sufficient coercion and circumstance make western involvement unthinkable.
  - Tade0 3y ago
    They have very little experience in that and, what's more important, their armed forces exist mostly to keep their own population in line, as evidenced with the events at Tiananmen square.
    - jncfhnb 3y ago
      Pretty sure the purpose of their army is to be an army, like pretty much every army.
      - mensetmanusman 3y ago
        They spend similar %GDP as the US does on military on their own internal security. Huge money sink.
UncleOxidant 3y ago
Already happening: https://www.thedailybeast.com/how-lying-flat-took-chinas-overworked-millennials-by-storm https://www.thedailybeast.com/how-lying-flat-took-chinas-ove...
- toomuchtodo 3y ago
  Also: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/26/the-rise-of-bai-lan-why-chinas-frustrated-youth-are-ready-to-let-it-rot https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/26/the-rise-of-ba... https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/20/the-last-generation-young-chinese-people-vow-not-to-have-children https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/20/the-last-gener...
- mindcandy 3y ago
  As an expert in Chinese culture after watching a single YouTube video... "Lying Flat" apparently is making a comeback. But, it is an old idea in China. A big theme is that skill and effort are not rewarded. Connections are. So, young people see most other people meagerly getting by after busting their ass from the moment they could walk and talk. But, they also see children of well-connected Party members living in luxury and excess as spoiled brats since birth. Another theme is that while it is hard to make good money, isn't hard to live very, very cheap in major Chinese cities if you cut down to bare minimalism. So, a lot of young people are apparently saving up for mini-retirements where they just drop out for a 2-3 years at a time, because why not?
phyrex 3y ago
Do you have any direct experience with the Chinese education system? Aside from the gaokao, which seems unnecessarily brutal to me, I have a fairly good impression of it.
- seanmcdirmid 3y ago
  You start working hard for your degree at a young age. My wife began intensive drawing lessons in 4th grade, which culminated in admission to a high tier art university (CAFA) later on (she had to pass an art exam in addition to getting a decent score on the gaokao...). I don't know if it is wrong, I definitely see advantages in pushing kids to be there best, but obviously not all of them are going to come out on top (given a limited top).
- lordnacho 3y ago
  I'd like to hear more?

jacquesm 3y ago

The Chinese economy is running on vapors and if it gets any worse they'll need a distraction.

toomuchtodo 3y ago
The right time to leave Taiwan is sometime between now and when the first shot is fired.
- audunw 3y ago
  If you want to leave Taiwan in the case China invades, the right time is when China makes actual preperations for an invasion. For China to execute an invasion, or even just a blockade, requires a lot of preperations that will be easily visible on satellite images. It'd be easier to see coming that Russias invasion of Ukraine, and if you remember the US told us with near certainty that Russia was going to invade just before they did. Most people with insight into Taiwan-China relations consider a blockade the likely first move. Perhaps even the only viable one. Considering the number of US citizens living/working in Taiwan, they'd probably escalate slowly in a way that would signal foreigners that they should leave the island. If no US citizens is hurt in the first strike, there's a chance US won't bother getting involved. But if China, without any warning, just lobs some missiles at major cities, and US citizens gets killed, what do you think the result would be? Seriously, we've been through this before the last time DPP was in power. The moment KMT was elected the aggressions stopped. If you look deeper at their signs of aggression, it becomes clear they're mostly for show. To keep DPP and its voter just scared enough to not make major moves towards formal independence. You know when you should actually get worried? When China starts to pick small winnable fights aimed towards training their military in real conflicts. They have zero practical experience. The PLAs last real fight was their skirmish with Vietnam that they lost with great humiliation. They need to escalate gradually to weed out issues caused by corruption and complacency. And Russia has now shown that even that might not be enough when it comes to the final big conflict. The problem for China here is that they have no viable small neighbors to pick at. Maybe Kinmen and Matsu islands, or some of Taiwans tiny remote islands with military bases. But that's very risky because it'd likely make people think they've triggered a full conflict with Taiwan which would trigger a rapid arms build-up in Taiwan along with possible crippling sanctions against China. Ideally they'd pick a fight somewhere else to make people think they're not yet focused on Taiwan. Like Russia with Georgia and Syria. China's viable strategy for taking Taiwan is just a giant contradiction: they need to go straight for Taiwans main island in a surprise attack in a way that minimizes the chance of US involment to have a remotely decent chance of success. But that excludes the possibility of gaining real practical experience they desperately need for that very same invasion, and it maximizes the risk of collateral damage to innocent US citizens.

s1artibartfast 3y ago

Here is a better article from NYT with a chart of the numbers: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/15/business/china-youth-unemployment.html https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/15/business/china-youth-unem...

hoppyhoppy2 3y ago
Gift Article link: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/15/business/china-youth-unemployment.html?unlocked_article_code=QiOWz82jjCNcOgx6d4j5upl_len5purw-UEkY6yM98DijVSjHMmcjW5tZxTHYmvEEcXdJyypoBpQvC0zyzjY-VEe1R9onlkZFzJIYi3N-QNuToq2IlusUqONNQpI56vNZBZ1AF8KdWpb0aY4OOG9-YmhSi2qMmYLMcgZT98bg1aUueTxGOn0XDXzuQxtmDpxNhKjUgCUOO0DVVvHqeiJ2LRKHvD7j5J2QaZmUSrf0nJG9y0j2yMrDtXTs2CAaEa4vcrmMuChZoA9-FEG9rvMsB3E_332m1ovQqggQAUwQVRue90OP6gfhxW-__UkCbRhtm9gyvB0DpSNzVN4JHfESgdIKw&smid=url-share https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/15/business/china-youth-unem...

deleted 3y ago

[deleted]

Sol- 3y ago

Isn't it in the US's interest to some degree to have a stable China rather than desperate and poor? Currently the course seems to be escalation on the economic side, with ever stricter sanctions and so on. Not to say that China doesn't have agency to correct its own mistakes or that their internal problems are on the US. Certainly a lot of their problems are on them and self-inflicted, from what I've read. But I still feel an escalatory mood from us in the west as well, which makes me uneasy. (I'm also of course aware that Chinese hardliners are very dangerous and seem to want to escalate and may want to deflect from their mistakes with Taiwan and so on. Not minimizing this, but this is nothing we can control.)

godelski 3y ago
> Isn't it in the US's interest to some degree to have a stable China rather than desperate and poor? Yeah, it is. That's what the last 50 years have been. Globalization is a lot of things, good and bad. We accept university students from around the world and have the top universities (ironic considering our pre-college education). The advantage to us (US) isn't just brain drain, but that those that return are vessels wherein we export our culture too[0] (the reverse happens too btw, but pressure is lower and thus tends to be more selective). Exporting labor and manufacturing isn't just about making products cheaper. This also helps poorer countries grow and escape poverty (name me a largely prosperous country who is not a significant player in the global market?). Growth (under capitalist theory) happens through the exchange of goods and services, not to be confused with money which is just the proxy for that. China's rapid growth and status today __could not__ have happened without the global market's export of labor and manufacturing to them. The issue is we all get trapped in our local thinking. We have our own agendas, want to be competitive, and due to this forget how we actually got here and how the underlying mechanisms work. Sure, there was greed and selfish behaviors operating under these systems, but there was also charity and selflessness. You can find whichever one you are looking for, and that part is key. But now China is rising to be an economic rival of the US, not a economic ally. Were it the latter, I'd wager we'd outwardly be congratulating China on its success (as we had in the years past, and in some sense still do), but behind close doors be competitive. Similar to how the best of friends can also be the fiercest of rivals. Competition is not inherently malicious. But give where we're at, there's two perspectives (realistically more, I'm simplifying) that one can take that are both equally valid and mostly true (they need not contradict). On one hand you can see China as acting as someone who bites the hand that feeds it. China of today would not exist without the west and especially the US. But on the other hand you can see China rising to power despite the US's dominance, that the west was handing over scraps which can be seen as taking advantage of China. Certainly the West in some respect has taken advantage of them, but also China did not need to play in the global market and _could_ have (idk, who does) without the "scraps"/"funding" that the West gave to it. Of course the US is nervous about a rival, they would be even if friendly. They should be. But if allies I think we would have been better able to focus on our own faults rather than pointing fear (no country is perfect. All have growth. Growth is more difficult when you're at the top. e.g. it is harder to obtain new knowledge through research than reading a book). But that's not the China we see. And maybe that's also the US's fault in some sense. There are many players and it is never one entity performing all actions. Even bad trades have to be accepted unless you can make a good argument that a gun is placed to their head (is a bad trade still "bad" if you'd be worse off without it? Fairness is a very tough subject that's incredibly complex. Way more than we give credit to). So I'll make a plea. Let's remember that a rising tide rises all ships. That all our countries can prosper through __healthy__ competition. We are able to rise to a post scarce utopian world __if__ and __ONLY IF__ we, the people of our countries, want to make that happen. They have to convince us that we are enemies. But I remind you, the difference between you and me is smaller than between us and our respective leaders. People may be dumb, but a person is smart. People may be mean, but a person and community are kind. Do not miss the trees for the forest, and make sure that you don't escalate any fires. Every decision made in this world starts with something small. Every complex object is built from simple small instructions that simply compound and grow over time and scale. Do not confuse yourself thinking that "I am only one," for you are one and each one is important to this machine built through chaos. Chaos means a small perturbation can have a large change in outcome. Remember that power. You may not be able to control the seas, but you can build a damn and you can build a harbor. Those too have large effects, even if you don't see it. Remember that your ideas are infectious. Like a virus (meme) they capture others. If you like an idea, you have the choice to be a spreader, even a superspreader. The power of social media gives us that capacity, but nature doesn't care which virus wins. People may not be able to choose which virus wins, but you, a person, does. We're only 6 degrees from one another. A pyramid scheme's failure is our advantage. But fear and lies are unbounded in simplicity, while truth is not. This is our disadvantage. == So that is our choice moving forward, and I want everyone to think about this very carefully: == the decisions we are making __now__ will dictate if we go to war and THOUSANDS or even MILLIONS of people die. ON BOTH SIDES. Friends, families, loved ones. Our countrymen as well as just dang old human beings. Each life is precious. It is a negative sum game. Not just for lives, but economics and prosperity. Pillaging may make you stronger, but the world benefits from two healthy competitors more than it benefits from one. You didn't add anything to the world, you only took something away (your rival). We can stop adding fuel to the flames now. We __have__ to stop adding now, because the more we add, the harder it is to remove. It compounds. It already has compounded a lot. But unless we have a time machine, then the best moment to act is now. This is my virus, and I hope it infects. That is our choice: utopia or (a chance at) "winning" [0] China has been very successful circumventing this. Deng took great risk when doing this. Not just re-encouraging the creation of an intellectual group, which they had just dismantled only a decade prior during Red August. But there is a reason you'll find Chinese students tend to self-isolate much more than students from other countries, even when those countries have a relatively large local community (e.g. Indians). That insulary nature is encouraged to depress cultural exchange.

1024core 3y ago

And you know what governments do when unemployment in this demographic becomes too high? Start wars. Expect some ratcheting up of tensions with Taiwan, India, Japan, etc. Followed by picking on a perceived weak adversary and a short conflict.

amai 3y ago
Russia didn’t attack Ukraine because of unemployment numbers. They attacked right at the moment when the oil price reached 100 dollar per barrel. All the Russian government needed are customers buying their oil and gas to pay for the war. They give a shit about their own people and the same is true for China. China will attack if they feel like they have enough reserves and their customers are so dependent on China, that they cannot sanction the regime, even when it starts a war.

tibbydudeza 3y ago

Does China have a form of social security system ???.

seanmcdirmid 3y ago
yes. You pay into it if you work in China (even as a foreigner, though they cut you a check for what you paid in when you leave).

wnc3141 3y ago

Anyone knowledgeable with an opinion on whether China has a mismatch between relatively high college attainment while remaining manufacturing oriented economy? In reference to this article: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/01/china-graduates-jobs-market-youth-unemployment https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/01/china-graduate...

astrange 3y ago
Is China a manufacturing oriented economy? For export yes, but domestically they're overdependent on real estate because it's the only thing people believe you can invest in.
dirtyid 3y ago
This is pretty much all there is too it. East Asian culture bias towards scholarship. PRC academic reforms increased tertiary enrollment from single digits to 60%, which at PRC scale is currently ~10m new grads a year, with ~9x bias towards STEM (~5M/yr) / S&E vs US. Meanwhile culture looks down on bluecollar work, new gen wants to credentials to push paper in air conditioned offices, like almost every where else. And they are willing to wait - PRC (especially urban) has one of highest house hold savings rate in world for stay at home kids to fuck around. Until they can't, hence broad unemployment ~5%. Hence youth unemployment eventually resolved - people resign to do work they don't want to - again like almost everywhere else. Last/next few years PRC society has been/is dealing with academic inflation that west has been dealing with decades prior. Society is eventually going to have to recalibrate expectations while state elevates prestige of blue collar / vocational work, which is happening. More broadly, the talent mismatch / demographics layer PRC currently dealing with: 1. manufacturing / skilled blue collar shortage - TLDR is qualified (prodominantly) migrant workers are aging out, or accumulated enough wealth to chill in their houses bought in 3rd / 4th tier cities and finally ditch migrant life. 2a. PRC tertiary graduation rate is still working off early 2000s cohorts of 12M+ births per year vs current 9+. It's simply a stupid fucking amount of new high skilled jobs to create. (Urban) youth unemployment stats being pulled because we're in graduate season of one of the largest tertiary cohorts into slower post covid economy and unemployment likely to reach 40%+. Which btw counts 18-24yr actively looking so realistically 10-12M out of 33M (urban) youths entering workforce (total urban youth 96m), total youth including rural (~150m). 2b. Now consider at PRC scale of current ~12m new graduates (tertiary + skilled programs), even with 50% youth unemployment, that's 6m new youths entering workforce. For reference US adds ~2M youth job around summer. This is why west should be fucking terrified PRC youth unemployment is only 20%. Or 40%. Or 50%. That and PRC unemployment is 5%, meaning most youths end up working anyway, because that's life, when you have to work, you work. Add on fact that employement in strategic sectors that directly competes with advanced economies are doing fine. TLDR is PRC is broadly leading the talent gap game. The more important point from above is understand is current high % of youth unemployment is symptom of everything WORKING MOSTLY ACCORDING TO PLAN. PRC demographers / family planning goal was for resources/education to focus on cohorts of 1-2 kid house holds to build up PRC skilled talent workforce (currently still ~25% vs 60/70/80% of advanced economies). The goal was always to absolutely SPAM the shit out of high skilled talent production for next phase of PRC development beyond manufacturing. But customary to PRC, everything state focus on = excess overcapacity. So the problem is having too MUCH talent, which is different than having too LITTLE. More specifically having too much stubborn talent. All those credentialled PRC unemployed youths are qualified to work in fairly well compensated factory jobs, but won't because they don't want to. Reverse is not true, west has generally skilled talent shortage, that humanities major can't work in a semi factory because they stimply can't. IMO this is a problem will largely sort itself out, because PRC has surplus youths with access to work they can do but won't do out of pride. And by an large, the cultural system ( live at home) supports it, i.e. PRC parents especially wealthier urban are fine with their kids fuckarounditis at home sending out resumes instead of working that temporary menial job. Which is a very different problem than most of west having surplus jobs that their youths can't fill. Also helps not having 5+ figure student loan debt or car/rent expenses that force youths in some societies too work.

nine_zeros 3y ago

Looks like my management. Hide reality. Celebrate some random BS that is meaningless.