4 ms·

Weird story. I'm a decent card player and have an interest in systems. I always want to know how something interesting works. I ended up making friends with a

by sudsy7 3y ago

Weird story. I'm a decent card player and have an interest in systems. I always want to know how something interesting works. I ended up making friends with a guy who was an expert advantage player, someone who knew how to flip the odds at casinos in his favor. Never did anything illegal, but plenty of things the casinos wouldn't like you doing if they knew you were doing it, and they're watching. To keep our profile low we'd travel to different places. It looks bad to win too much too many times. Casinos notice. Between travel and off times we'd end up talking a lot about a lot of things. He was always diving into odd subjects. One of them was Flat Earth. At first it was just curiosity about a peculiar subculture. We'd discuss how stupid it was, but we'd also note where they made points we couldn't deny. I won't say I've swallowed the whole pancake but I've taken a few bites. I'm not going to get into it here and this is an alt account because it's a topic that generates a lot of hostility from some. But I have made a lot of friends in the FE community. They're the new people I tend to relate to the best without a known shared background. It's not the FE that's attractive, it's that they're people who put very little value on social conformity and thus can be honest in a way that "fit ins" can't. I don't wear FE tee shirts or proselytize. It's just a thing I keep to myself and don't trouble anyone with. JADP.

schwartzworld 3y ago
> but plenty of things the casinos wouldn't like you doing if they knew you were doing it Most of the time casinos are quite happy for you to attempt whatever system you think you have, card counting or whatever. Most people are bad at it, and even if you're good, you can't actually "flip" the odds as much as nudge them slightly into your favor. You figure out when you're a _little_ more likely to win and increase your bets by an order of magnitude. If you've done it right (and you probably haven't) and the casino hasn't neutralized your advantage by tweaking the game rules, you will still lose those larger bets a good percentage of the time. Casinos are quite happy to let you do this, because the average joe doesn't even have the bankroll sit through 3 shoes hoping for a chance to 10x his bet. At a $15 minimum bet table, you could lose $500 in a single shoe, no problem. They'll let you count to your little heart's content, and then when your count is finally advantageous, you'll up your bet to $150/hand and that's when they'll shut you down.
- sudsy7 3y ago
  Card counting is the thing everyone knows about. A good counter is getting a 1-2% advantage and is under lots of heat. If the table is paying 6:5 on blackjack instead of 3:2 like more are becoming it kills your entire edige. We were doing stuff in the 8-12% range. It is far more advanced than CC and almost never discussed online. Every casino game has a vulnerability, even slots. Advantage play is not free money, it's a job. You need skills, a bank roll, and to put in a lot of hours in casinos.
  - matteoraso 3y ago
    >We were doing stuff in the 8-12% range. If there was a legal way of achieving that kind of edge, casinos would know about it. That kind of gain is incredibly noticeable if you're watching the gambler, which the casino is absolutely doing. >Every casino game has a vulnerability, even slots. This is even more alarming. Slots aren't a skill-based game, they're RNG machines with a mean EV that's substantially lower than any other game in the casino. The only possible strategy that I can think of for slots (besides breaking into the machine and changing the RNG) is to hunt down slot machines that award an accumulative jackpot and play them when you calculate that the EV is positive. Even then, this is a rare circumstance and your gains would be small.
    - sudsy7 3y ago
      Yes, the more creative and rare the exploit the better it pays, and good ones do provide 10%+ advantage. Good card players have lots of ways to gain advantages. http://www.cardplayer.com/poker-news/25107-poker-legend-phil-ivey-settles-10-1-million-lawsuit-with-borgata http://www.cardplayer.com/poker-news/25107-poker-legend-phil...
      - matteoraso 3y ago
        Did you read the article? He was sued for using an illegal technique and had his assets seized. Like I said, no legal technique will give you the edge that you're talking about. Also, very few decks will have consistent manufacturer flaws nowadays.
peheje 3y ago
I empathize deeply with this perspective. The individuals I most cherish interacting with are those who entertain unconventional topics, indulging in initial exploration before forming judgments. With them, I can freely brainstorm and bounce off "out there" ideas. They don't just echo my thoughts, but they also refrain from instantly dismissing concepts deemed controversial. Ideally, they'd subtly express their genuine beliefs, even if skeptical, without overt dismissal. No I'm not into FE.
- sudsy7 3y ago
  I'm not sure about FE, but the "we're spinning right now at 1000mph" disintegrates under any reasonable interrogation. For example, consider you're looking at a disk shaped cloud 10 miles above that is 20 miles long from the center. If you're on Earth spinning below it at 1000mph you would be looking back at the cloud in less than 2 minutes. So how do clouds linger above us on a fast spinning earth? May not be a convincing question for some, but it's made me think.
  - rexpop 3y ago
    The cloud is suspended in a fluid that is also spinning. The atmosphere is an ocean we live at the bottom of, and where it makes contact with the earth friction between the fluid and the solid conveys inertia from the solid to the fluid. Inertia is likewise conveyed, by friction, up the viscous column of atmosphere. It is the same principle by which stirring your coffee causes the entire contents of the cup to swirl, and not just that touched immediately by the surface of the spoon.
    - sudsy7 3y ago
      OK, so if you take a sphere spinning on its axis and put it in a spherical aquarium I could see it all spinning together. But what I don't see is how that works in an atmosphere which is mostly near the earth's surface. It seems like you would lose a lot of energy as you entered the stratosphere because the air density increasingly falls, there's less room for friction to cohere the atmosphere. High clouds should be less effected which would make them appear to move much faster than low clouds. Is there a good source somewhere on how this works that takes this into account? The stuff I've seen just assumes its own model and works backwards.
tenacious_tuna 3y ago
> It's not the FE that's attractive, it's that they're people who put very little value on social conformity and thus can be honest in a way that "fit ins" can't. There's a marvelous video [1] that Dan Olsen of Folding Ideas did as a deep dive into the community of Flat Earth and how it manages to survive. The TL;DW (though it really is worth the watch) is that people both want and need community, and all communities have ways of signaling that you belong to them. Sometimes it's language, sometimes it's clothes, sometimes it's behaviors--the "qualifications" vary wildly by group, but in many cases from the outside the exhibited behaviors of a group (e.g., believing in flat earth) don't jive with the rest of the perceived individual (e.g., scientifically literate) until you factor in that the behaviors don't have to matter beyond ensuring membership to a group. A whole lot of things make a lot more sense to me when seen through that lens, including a lot of organized religion. People just want to belong, and often the "price of entry" is inconsequential vs. the payoff of belonging somewhere. Thanks for sharing your story. It helps me to understand the "Why" of some of these things, and helps me feel more connected to my fellow beings. [1]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JTfhYyTuT44 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JTfhYyTuT44
- slim 3y ago
  so it's a cult. where believing in wacky things is a rite you have to accomplish to prove your commitment to the community. the wackier, the stronger is the bond
  - tenacious_tuna 3y ago
    > so it's a cult Sure, I'd call flat earth a cult, but I'd say the say of most organized religions too, but I was deliberately avoiding putting OP on the defensive by using labels with such strong connotations. My point was more that this effect is common across ALL human groups--it's the defining factor of what a group IS, and it's useful to remember when people's behavior doesn't otherwise make sense. I think the same dynamics are true of most political movements, or things like astrology. Yes, by the definition of "saying weird stuff to prove your membership", they all sound like cults, but the point is that in a lot of cases it doesn't matter, and it isn't useful to make inferences about the person behind the statement (e.g. "believes in flat earth" == "totally scientifically illiterate") without also considering the groupthink pressures. I say that more as a "know thy enemy" kinda thing--so often I've tried arguing with people in these groups and made no progress and came out more confused than when I went in because I was missing the factor that many people don't hold those beliefs tightly, or those who do hold it to access the social benefits, so coming at their position from a purely logical perspective is unlikely to change their minds or epistemology--and that's doubly true if you put them on the defensive by calling them a cultist out of the gate.
tacostakohashi 3y ago
I've also noticed that people rally and gather together around various forms of controversial/bullshit topics. That's what religions, cults, anti-vaxxers, qanon, UFO stuff, moon landing hoax, flat earth, etc all are, and for all their faults they are welcoming towards quirky / non-mainstream people, and they hang out together and network, have events, etc. Unfortunately, there isn't really an equivalent community / network for spherical earth "believers", atheists, and other such boring, uncontroversial topics. Sometimes it's tempting to feign support for some of these things, just to hook into the community.

by sudsy7 3y ago

schwartzworld 3y ago

> but plenty of things the casinos wouldn't like you doing if they knew you were doing it Most of the time casinos are quite happy for you to attempt whatever system you think you have, card counting or whatever. Most people are bad at it, and even if you're good, you can't actually "flip" the odds as much as nudge them slightly into your favor. You figure out when you're a _little_ more likely to win and increase your bets by an order of magnitude. If you've done it right (and you probably haven't) and the casino hasn't neutralized your advantage by tweaking the game rules, you will still lose those larger bets a good percentage of the time. Casinos are quite happy to let you do this, because the average joe doesn't even have the bankroll sit through 3 shoes hoping for a chance to 10x his bet. At a $15 minimum bet table, you could lose $500 in a single shoe, no problem. They'll let you count to your little heart's content, and then when your count is finally advantageous, you'll up your bet to $150/hand and that's when they'll shut you down.

sudsy7 3y ago
Card counting is the thing everyone knows about. A good counter is getting a 1-2% advantage and is under lots of heat. If the table is paying 6:5 on blackjack instead of 3:2 like more are becoming it kills your entire edige. We were doing stuff in the 8-12% range. It is far more advanced than CC and almost never discussed online. Every casino game has a vulnerability, even slots. Advantage play is not free money, it's a job. You need skills, a bank roll, and to put in a lot of hours in casinos.
- matteoraso 3y ago
  >We were doing stuff in the 8-12% range. If there was a legal way of achieving that kind of edge, casinos would know about it. That kind of gain is incredibly noticeable if you're watching the gambler, which the casino is absolutely doing. >Every casino game has a vulnerability, even slots. This is even more alarming. Slots aren't a skill-based game, they're RNG machines with a mean EV that's substantially lower than any other game in the casino. The only possible strategy that I can think of for slots (besides breaking into the machine and changing the RNG) is to hunt down slot machines that award an accumulative jackpot and play them when you calculate that the EV is positive. Even then, this is a rare circumstance and your gains would be small.
  - sudsy7 3y ago
    Yes, the more creative and rare the exploit the better it pays, and good ones do provide 10%+ advantage. Good card players have lots of ways to gain advantages. http://www.cardplayer.com/poker-news/25107-poker-legend-phil-ivey-settles-10-1-million-lawsuit-with-borgata http://www.cardplayer.com/poker-news/25107-poker-legend-phil...
    - matteoraso 3y ago
      Did you read the article? He was sued for using an illegal technique and had his assets seized. Like I said, no legal technique will give you the edge that you're talking about. Also, very few decks will have consistent manufacturer flaws nowadays.

peheje 3y ago

I empathize deeply with this perspective. The individuals I most cherish interacting with are those who entertain unconventional topics, indulging in initial exploration before forming judgments. With them, I can freely brainstorm and bounce off "out there" ideas. They don't just echo my thoughts, but they also refrain from instantly dismissing concepts deemed controversial. Ideally, they'd subtly express their genuine beliefs, even if skeptical, without overt dismissal. No I'm not into FE.

sudsy7 3y ago
I'm not sure about FE, but the "we're spinning right now at 1000mph" disintegrates under any reasonable interrogation. For example, consider you're looking at a disk shaped cloud 10 miles above that is 20 miles long from the center. If you're on Earth spinning below it at 1000mph you would be looking back at the cloud in less than 2 minutes. So how do clouds linger above us on a fast spinning earth? May not be a convincing question for some, but it's made me think.
- rexpop 3y ago
  The cloud is suspended in a fluid that is also spinning. The atmosphere is an ocean we live at the bottom of, and where it makes contact with the earth friction between the fluid and the solid conveys inertia from the solid to the fluid. Inertia is likewise conveyed, by friction, up the viscous column of atmosphere. It is the same principle by which stirring your coffee causes the entire contents of the cup to swirl, and not just that touched immediately by the surface of the spoon.
  - sudsy7 3y ago
    OK, so if you take a sphere spinning on its axis and put it in a spherical aquarium I could see it all spinning together. But what I don't see is how that works in an atmosphere which is mostly near the earth's surface. It seems like you would lose a lot of energy as you entered the stratosphere because the air density increasingly falls, there's less room for friction to cohere the atmosphere. High clouds should be less effected which would make them appear to move much faster than low clouds. Is there a good source somewhere on how this works that takes this into account? The stuff I've seen just assumes its own model and works backwards.

tenacious_tuna 3y ago

> It's not the FE that's attractive, it's that they're people who put very little value on social conformity and thus can be honest in a way that "fit ins" can't. There's a marvelous video [1] that Dan Olsen of Folding Ideas did as a deep dive into the community of Flat Earth and how it manages to survive. The TL;DW (though it really is worth the watch) is that people both want and need community, and all communities have ways of signaling that you belong to them. Sometimes it's language, sometimes it's clothes, sometimes it's behaviors--the "qualifications" vary wildly by group, but in many cases from the outside the exhibited behaviors of a group (e.g., believing in flat earth) don't jive with the rest of the perceived individual (e.g., scientifically literate) until you factor in that the behaviors don't have to matter beyond ensuring membership to a group. A whole lot of things make a lot more sense to me when seen through that lens, including a lot of organized religion. People just want to belong, and often the "price of entry" is inconsequential vs. the payoff of belonging somewhere. Thanks for sharing your story. It helps me to understand the "Why" of some of these things, and helps me feel more connected to my fellow beings. [1]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JTfhYyTuT44 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JTfhYyTuT44

slim 3y ago
so it's a cult. where believing in wacky things is a rite you have to accomplish to prove your commitment to the community. the wackier, the stronger is the bond
- tenacious_tuna 3y ago
  > so it's a cult Sure, I'd call flat earth a cult, but I'd say the say of most organized religions too, but I was deliberately avoiding putting OP on the defensive by using labels with such strong connotations. My point was more that this effect is common across ALL human groups--it's the defining factor of what a group IS, and it's useful to remember when people's behavior doesn't otherwise make sense. I think the same dynamics are true of most political movements, or things like astrology. Yes, by the definition of "saying weird stuff to prove your membership", they all sound like cults, but the point is that in a lot of cases it doesn't matter, and it isn't useful to make inferences about the person behind the statement (e.g. "believes in flat earth" == "totally scientifically illiterate") without also considering the groupthink pressures. I say that more as a "know thy enemy" kinda thing--so often I've tried arguing with people in these groups and made no progress and came out more confused than when I went in because I was missing the factor that many people don't hold those beliefs tightly, or those who do hold it to access the social benefits, so coming at their position from a purely logical perspective is unlikely to change their minds or epistemology--and that's doubly true if you put them on the defensive by calling them a cultist out of the gate.

tacostakohashi 3y ago

I've also noticed that people rally and gather together around various forms of controversial/bullshit topics. That's what religions, cults, anti-vaxxers, qanon, UFO stuff, moon landing hoax, flat earth, etc all are, and for all their faults they are welcoming towards quirky / non-mainstream people, and they hang out together and network, have events, etc. Unfortunately, there isn't really an equivalent community / network for spherical earth "believers", atheists, and other such boring, uncontroversial topics. Sometimes it's tempting to feign support for some of these things, just to hook into the community.