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Well there is GDP PPP and nominal and metrics never changed. China has surpassed U.S. in PPP GDP around 2017 and might at some far away future point around it's

Well there is GDP PPP and nominal and metrics never changed. China has surpassed U.S. in PPP GDP around 2017 and might at some far away future point around it's historical peak (10-20 years away), get up to 2x the U.S. level, but it might never reach U.S. nominal level (currently 67% of it), or if it does, only briefly and marginally so. None of those metrics has "changed". It's just two different ways of measuring it: PPP defines intrinsic economic power/amount of goods consumed, nominal defines power on world markets/purchasing ability. We produce and consume in national prices that are different (and PPP factor corrects for that difference), but we trade in nominal dollars.

peterfirefly 3y ago
If you trust the official Chinese GDP figures. Big if. Very big if. (All countries seem to do some overcounting but not by 100-400%.)
- anovikov 3y ago
  I'd say their figures are weird. In some industries, output is truly astounding, making up 60-95% of worldwide total, and that is entirely verifiable and believable. In others, we see obvious lies. No one can really find out the truth, and some attempts to get to the truth only harm reputation of the one trying (like The Economist's own attempt to do it by measuring changes in night illumination, that was incredibly flawed and drew a lot of criticism - https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2022/09/29/a-study-of-lights-at-night-suggests-dictators-lie-about-economic-growth https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2022/09/29/a-study-...)
  - seanmcdirmid 3y ago
    There was always that guy who was barred from trading in Hong Kong in 2016 because they claimed Evergrande was cooking its books [1]. Safe to say that snooping around China’s economy for real information isn’t going to be appreciated at all. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Left https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Left
    - peterfirefly 3y ago
      I don't understand why Caixin can be so relatively open as it is. I also don't understand how Michael Pettis can get away with saying the things he says.

peterfirefly 3y ago

If you trust the official Chinese GDP figures. Big if. Very big if. (All countries seem to do some overcounting but not by 100-400%.)

anovikov 3y ago
I'd say their figures are weird. In some industries, output is truly astounding, making up 60-95% of worldwide total, and that is entirely verifiable and believable. In others, we see obvious lies. No one can really find out the truth, and some attempts to get to the truth only harm reputation of the one trying (like The Economist's own attempt to do it by measuring changes in night illumination, that was incredibly flawed and drew a lot of criticism - https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2022/09/29/a-study-of-lights-at-night-suggests-dictators-lie-about-economic-growth https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2022/09/29/a-study-...)
- seanmcdirmid 3y ago
  There was always that guy who was barred from trading in Hong Kong in 2016 because they claimed Evergrande was cooking its books [1]. Safe to say that snooping around China’s economy for real information isn’t going to be appreciated at all. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Left https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Left
  - peterfirefly 3y ago
    I don't understand why Caixin can be so relatively open as it is. I also don't understand how Michael Pettis can get away with saying the things he says.