8 ms·

Personally, I think we are past the point of this being nothing. There have been multiple confirmations of at least something unexplained going on. Maybe all of

Personally, I think we are past the point of this being nothing. There have been multiple confirmations of at least something unexplained going on. Maybe all of them are wrong but honestly, that is more of an extraordinary claim than saying this is something interesting, just not a full on room temp superconductor.

marcosdumay 3y ago
It's not that extraordinary. When people rush to replicate an experiment, everybody with a positive result has something to publish very quickly, and everybody with a negative result need a lot more time to be certain of it. The kinds of results we are seeing are very hard to get by chance or due to bad experimental setup. But as a rule, we can't really differentiate a real thing from random noise in as little time as have passed.
- jseip 3y ago
  "It's not that extraordinary." How is that possibly true? LK-99 is already amongst the highest-temperature superconductors ever found (with that claim substantiated by at least two independent research teams as of this moment).
  - whimsicalism 3y ago
    I don't know if you work in this field, but you are putting way too much faith in what has been reported so far People are way, way overconfident. Most people in the field would not be willing to put it at >50% odds at this point.
    - eric_cc 3y ago
      > Most people in the field would not be willing to put it at >50% odds at this point. Do you have a source for this claim? It sounds like you just made it up.
      - scarmig 3y ago
        There's not going to be a poll on it or anything. But, for what it's worth, as both an LK-99 optimist and as someone who has worked in the field and who still talks to people in it, most people in it seem to put the chances well below 50%.
      - whimsicalism 3y ago
        Of course not, there hasn’t been some survey of materials scientists on LK-99. This is my impression given my familiarity with the field
  - marcosdumay 3y ago
    If you push it, all the diamagnetism videos people published about reproducing it could be created by some weird and unlikely distribution of ferromagnetism on the sample. Except for the one that nobody knows where it comes from, that could easily be a fabrication. That leaves the original, that is clearly diamagnetism, but still could be misleading in many ways. We don't know how many labs are working on replicating this. So we have no idea how unlikely mistakes we should expect to see.
- singularity2001 3y ago
  So having a very strong diamagnet isn't interesting or is there still reason to even doubt that part? Only one of the four labs that completed replication has claimed to have found diamagnetism, but how could that video be explained otherwise?
- bluGill 3y ago
  But that people have a positive result at all to publish is extraordinary. If this isn't a super conductor at this point that is probably even bigger than a superconductor - it means there is other physics we are not aware of to investigate. At this point I've changed to this is probably true, but I don't know how big it is. (if it is true but impossible to produce at industrial scale it is not revolutionary)
Analemma_ 3y ago
I understand why a lot of people think this, but I don't think we can say that with confidence yet. Cold fusion "replicated successfully" multiple times in the 80s too.
- nwiswell 3y ago
  There are now several authentic videos of bits of rock (lead apatite) appearing to do things around magnets that they have no business doing. Maybe there's a lot of smoke and no fire, but there's videographic evidence of something weird going on.
  - wahern 3y ago
    Unfortunately, we live in the age of TikTok. Videos on their own bring no more credibility than written text; they no longer evince a substantively greater investment of resources. I'm more inclined toward the cheerleading section of the LK-99 audience, but watching the videos I realized now is a perfect opportunity to apply recalibrated B.S. detectors.
    - drexlspivey 3y ago
      This doesnt pass the smell test. Why would multiple independent labs fake their videos? What’s the conspiracy here? There is no upside, we will know in a couple of weeks if it’s real or not.
      - ekianjo 3y ago
        > Why would multiple independent labs fake their videos Why would different newspapers spread hoaxes? Yet it happens...
        drexlspivey 3y ago
        newspapers get paid by the click
        3y ago
Affric 3y ago
Reading this paper they’re pretty restrained. They got zero resistance but didn’t get everything they were looking for. This material is fascinating and I love the interest and good debate it’s generating. Sometimes it feels like we missed so many golden ages but we might still get to experience something world changing before our eyes and understand what it means. Real technological progress and societal improvement breed optimism. This could be the start of something big. Even if it isn’t it reminds us why we are still searching for theorised technologies.

marcosdumay 3y ago

It's not that extraordinary. When people rush to replicate an experiment, everybody with a positive result has something to publish very quickly, and everybody with a negative result need a lot more time to be certain of it. The kinds of results we are seeing are very hard to get by chance or due to bad experimental setup. But as a rule, we can't really differentiate a real thing from random noise in as little time as have passed.

jseip 3y ago
"It's not that extraordinary." How is that possibly true? LK-99 is already amongst the highest-temperature superconductors ever found (with that claim substantiated by at least two independent research teams as of this moment).
- whimsicalism 3y ago
  I don't know if you work in this field, but you are putting way too much faith in what has been reported so far People are way, way overconfident. Most people in the field would not be willing to put it at >50% odds at this point.
  - eric_cc 3y ago
    > Most people in the field would not be willing to put it at >50% odds at this point. Do you have a source for this claim? It sounds like you just made it up.
    - scarmig 3y ago
      There's not going to be a poll on it or anything. But, for what it's worth, as both an LK-99 optimist and as someone who has worked in the field and who still talks to people in it, most people in it seem to put the chances well below 50%.
    - whimsicalism 3y ago
      Of course not, there hasn’t been some survey of materials scientists on LK-99. This is my impression given my familiarity with the field
- marcosdumay 3y ago
  If you push it, all the diamagnetism videos people published about reproducing it could be created by some weird and unlikely distribution of ferromagnetism on the sample. Except for the one that nobody knows where it comes from, that could easily be a fabrication. That leaves the original, that is clearly diamagnetism, but still could be misleading in many ways. We don't know how many labs are working on replicating this. So we have no idea how unlikely mistakes we should expect to see.
singularity2001 3y ago
So having a very strong diamagnet isn't interesting or is there still reason to even doubt that part? Only one of the four labs that completed replication has claimed to have found diamagnetism, but how could that video be explained otherwise?
bluGill 3y ago
But that people have a positive result at all to publish is extraordinary. If this isn't a super conductor at this point that is probably even bigger than a superconductor - it means there is other physics we are not aware of to investigate. At this point I've changed to this is probably true, but I don't know how big it is. (if it is true but impossible to produce at industrial scale it is not revolutionary)

Analemma_ 3y ago

I understand why a lot of people think this, but I don't think we can say that with confidence yet. Cold fusion "replicated successfully" multiple times in the 80s too.

nwiswell 3y ago
There are now several authentic videos of bits of rock (lead apatite) appearing to do things around magnets that they have no business doing. Maybe there's a lot of smoke and no fire, but there's videographic evidence of something weird going on.
- wahern 3y ago
  Unfortunately, we live in the age of TikTok. Videos on their own bring no more credibility than written text; they no longer evince a substantively greater investment of resources. I'm more inclined toward the cheerleading section of the LK-99 audience, but watching the videos I realized now is a perfect opportunity to apply recalibrated B.S. detectors.
  - drexlspivey 3y ago
    This doesnt pass the smell test. Why would multiple independent labs fake their videos? What’s the conspiracy here? There is no upside, we will know in a couple of weeks if it’s real or not.
    - ekianjo 3y ago
      > Why would multiple independent labs fake their videos Why would different newspapers spread hoaxes? Yet it happens...
      - drexlspivey 3y ago
        newspapers get paid by the click
      - 3y ago

Affric 3y ago

Reading this paper they’re pretty restrained. They got zero resistance but didn’t get everything they were looking for. This material is fascinating and I love the interest and good debate it’s generating. Sometimes it feels like we missed so many golden ages but we might still get to experience something world changing before our eyes and understand what it means. Real technological progress and societal improvement breed optimism. This could be the start of something big. Even if it isn’t it reminds us why we are still searching for theorised technologies.