5 ms·

the pilot isn't the expensive kit, although the flight-hours to train them may be. Even an unmanned NGAD will probably cost ~500MM.

by lumost 3y ago

ethbr0 3y ago
The flight hours + HR costs. The key financial advantage of drones is that they don't need money to live after work, health insurance, or a pension plan. It's expensive to ask people to risk their lives for work. And specifically for forward deployment scenarios: they don't require human support infrastructure pushed forward, at great cost. Even in austere military terms, it's logistically expensive to keep a human alive on a random atoll in the Pacific. The aircraft:supportHumans ratio is a tyranny in that each of those supportHumans requires their own support.
- FirmwareBurner 3y ago
  >It's expensive to ask people to risk their lives for work. Unless you're in the Russian army.
  - deleted 3y ago
    [deleted]
  - ethbr0 3y ago
    The Russians are paying good-for-Russia bonuses to attract recruits, as well as giving anyone who fights or builds for the military in Ukraine veteran status.
    - smcl 3y ago
      They're promising good bonuses for signing up. There's a lot of complaints about people not actually getting what they've been promised.
    - FirmwareBurner 3y ago
      But will you survive to enjoy those beenfits?
- cabalamat 3y ago
  Also you can build a drone AI and cheaply deploy it to 1000 drones. Whereas each human pilot must be expensively trained.
gostsamo 3y ago
People can withstand only certain G-s of acceleration. Remove them, and you have a much more manueverable craft.
- worrycue 3y ago
  Manoeuvrability probably isn’t as useful as it used to be. Fighter jets used to need to keep their radar, in the nose of the aircraft, pointed at their target to keep the target lit up for the missile to find. At close enough range if you can out turn your opponent and get out of its radar, you can “break radar lock-on”. Today though, missiles have their own radar that works at close ranges but, if I’m right, still need guidance at long ranges. At close range, good luck out turning the much smaller faster missile. At long ranges you can’t really out turn anything. Not to mention that with modern jets like the F-35, I heard the pilots can track you with their helmets, with the aircraft having sensors all over the airframe effectively allowing the pilot to “see-through” the aircraft, and transmit your location via data link to an in-flight missile.
  - gostsamo 3y ago
    If the ai plane can fly higher and faster than the rocket or at least a human plane because it does not have to care about a human body, then you have scenarios where the rocket must be shot significantly closer to catch the plane. Not much into military stuff, but seems logical that more options create more margins for success. Savings on inner space, human training, and equipment are only a bonus.
    - lumost 3y ago
      In most modern aircraft, the aircraft over g's long before the human body. When aircraft are pushed to the limit in a combat situation, you'll hear the warning alarm blaring "over-g, over-g" as continued operation in that domain will either tear the wings off - or permanently degrade the airframe. The main advantage of a drone is expendability - sending a pilot to certain death is not something the military wants to do. However there are missions where risking a 300 MM drone on a 30% chance of destruction makes sense. A missile truck drone with an AESA radar could likely maintain a 4:1 kill ratio by simply flying further into enemy air defenses than a human pilot would. It doesn't matter if you lose the drone if it kills 4 other air defense targets worth 300MM.
hajile 3y ago
I believe drones are actually projected to be smaller and MUCH cheaper. We seem to be heading toward a plane with 1-2 people plus an AI that will cost $300M paired with 5-10 drones each costing around $30M. A real pilot nearby also reduces the efficiency of jamming to a large degree. The idea is that smaller drones are harder to see on radar, they cost less, and they require many more missiles to fully intercept than one large drone.

the pilot isn't the expensive kit, although the flight-hours to train them may be. Even an unmanned NGAD will probably cost ~500MM.

by lumost 3y ago

the pilot isn't the expensive kit, although the flight-hours to train them may be. Even an unmanned NGAD will probably cost ~500MM.

ethbr0 3y ago

The flight hours + HR costs. The key financial advantage of drones is that they don't need money to live after work, health insurance, or a pension plan. It's expensive to ask people to risk their lives for work. And specifically for forward deployment scenarios: they don't require human support infrastructure pushed forward, at great cost. Even in austere military terms, it's logistically expensive to keep a human alive on a random atoll in the Pacific. The aircraft:supportHumans ratio is a tyranny in that each of those supportHumans requires their own support.

FirmwareBurner 3y ago
>It's expensive to ask people to risk their lives for work. Unless you're in the Russian army.
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
- ethbr0 3y ago
  The Russians are paying good-for-Russia bonuses to attract recruits, as well as giving anyone who fights or builds for the military in Ukraine veteran status.
  - smcl 3y ago
    They're promising good bonuses for signing up. There's a lot of complaints about people not actually getting what they've been promised.
  - FirmwareBurner 3y ago
    But will you survive to enjoy those beenfits?
cabalamat 3y ago
Also you can build a drone AI and cheaply deploy it to 1000 drones. Whereas each human pilot must be expensively trained.

gostsamo 3y ago

People can withstand only certain G-s of acceleration. Remove them, and you have a much more manueverable craft.

worrycue 3y ago
Manoeuvrability probably isn’t as useful as it used to be. Fighter jets used to need to keep their radar, in the nose of the aircraft, pointed at their target to keep the target lit up for the missile to find. At close enough range if you can out turn your opponent and get out of its radar, you can “break radar lock-on”. Today though, missiles have their own radar that works at close ranges but, if I’m right, still need guidance at long ranges. At close range, good luck out turning the much smaller faster missile. At long ranges you can’t really out turn anything. Not to mention that with modern jets like the F-35, I heard the pilots can track you with their helmets, with the aircraft having sensors all over the airframe effectively allowing the pilot to “see-through” the aircraft, and transmit your location via data link to an in-flight missile.
- gostsamo 3y ago
  If the ai plane can fly higher and faster than the rocket or at least a human plane because it does not have to care about a human body, then you have scenarios where the rocket must be shot significantly closer to catch the plane. Not much into military stuff, but seems logical that more options create more margins for success. Savings on inner space, human training, and equipment are only a bonus.
  - lumost 3y ago
    In most modern aircraft, the aircraft over g's long before the human body. When aircraft are pushed to the limit in a combat situation, you'll hear the warning alarm blaring "over-g, over-g" as continued operation in that domain will either tear the wings off - or permanently degrade the airframe. The main advantage of a drone is expendability - sending a pilot to certain death is not something the military wants to do. However there are missions where risking a 300 MM drone on a 30% chance of destruction makes sense. A missile truck drone with an AESA radar could likely maintain a 4:1 kill ratio by simply flying further into enemy air defenses than a human pilot would. It doesn't matter if you lose the drone if it kills 4 other air defense targets worth 300MM.

hajile 3y ago

I believe drones are actually projected to be smaller and MUCH cheaper. We seem to be heading toward a plane with 1-2 people plus an AI that will cost $300M paired with 5-10 drones each costing around $30M. A real pilot nearby also reduces the efficiency of jamming to a large degree. The idea is that smaller drones are harder to see on radar, they cost less, and they require many more missiles to fully intercept than one large drone.