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Great, practical advice. I do think however that by 2030, UBI will be the norm in many wealthy countries, and thus more people will be able to pursue their pass

Great, practical advice. I do think however that by 2030, UBI will be the norm in many wealthy countries, and thus more people will be able to pursue their passions rather than having to sell their soul as dayjobbers to make money for corporations and rich people.

hguant 3y ago
In 7 years? I think the current crop of pilot tests for UBI are set to finish up in 7 years. No way meaningful UBI gets well enough established in 7 years to be considered "a norm." UBI is this generation's fusion - it's going to be 10 years away until the late 2070s, if at all.
- lotsofpulp 3y ago
  I have yet to see a pilot test for UBI even begin. Which country’s people are all (universal) receiving an income? The whole thing makes no sense if everyone is not getting it.
  - barbazoo 3y ago
    > I have yet to see a pilot test for UBI even begin. Pilots have been done all over the place [0] [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_basic_income_pilots https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_basic_income_pilots
    - lotsofpulp 3y ago
      It cannot be piloted without an entire country being subject to it. The whole point is that ALL the lowest income workers (janitors/fruit pickers/nursing home workers/etc) can quit their job, causing a massive re-pricing of labor and re-allocation of labor. It would cause lots of things to increase in price that are currently priced low simply because someone's parents happened to be from a poorer country that did not speak English, and so on and so forth. Without that, the benefits of UBI can never be observed.
      - barbazoo 3y ago
        > It cannot be piloted without an entire country being subject to it. I mean, that's you changing the definition of what a pilot is. Have you looked into how they were conducted in those countries and how they determine success/failure?
        lotsofpulp 3y ago
        I do not need to look into how they were conducted. Universal is a condition of universal basic income, without which the dynamics of the labor market cannot change, and hence the benefits cannot be observed. Only once all the lowest paid workers (who ostensibly are doing their job because they have no other option) can drop their jobs and negotiate better compensation can the effects of UBI be seen.
- JSavageOne 3y ago
  Completely disagree. In 5 years AI will be so advanced that most humans will be economically irrelevant and unable to compete, forcing governments to implement UBI to avoid societal collapse. By 2030 I would be willing to be money that UBI or something resembling UBI will be the norm in most advanced wealthy countries.
dragonwriter 3y ago
> I do think however that by 2030, UBI will be the norm in many wealthy countries, and thus more people will be able to pursue their passions rather than having to sell their soul as dayjobbers to make money for corporations and rich people. 2030 is much too soon for UBI to be an established norm, and even more much to soon for economies to support it at a level which would radically change this dynamic rather than just mitigating perverse incentives that exist at the edges of means-tested poverty support programs.
eastbound 3y ago
UBI is a bane because it kills meritocracy. The reason most people are successful is because they risk a lot if they weren’t. Surprise: Stress is a factor of excellence. You say it yourself: If UBI is introduced, then none of the hard jobs gets done.
- saagarjha 3y ago
  Even within software there are a lot of excellent projects created by financially secure people. Clearly at least some people do enjoy doing hard work without being threatened for their livelihood.
  - tayo42 3y ago
    I interpreted hard work to mean dishwashing, landscaping, janitor in an elementary school etc...
- dragonwriter 3y ago
  > UBI is a bane because it kills meritocracy. UBI enables meritocracy, it doesn’t kill it.
  - tomcam 3y ago
    What if most people paying taxes now opt for UBI instead?
    - e_i_pi_2 3y ago
      The "U" part means everyone would get it, so you don't have to opt for it, and everyone would still pay taxes Another way to think of it is as a negative income tax - as a simple example the equation could be ((income * 0.2) - 20000), so if you make no money you get 20k, if you make 100k you pay no taxes and get nothing, if you make 200k you owe 20. This is using a flat tax rate for simplicity but then everyone get taxes 20% and everyone gets 20k. It's similar to public school - everyone pays for it and everyone gets it, but the purpose is to ensure it's there for people that wouldn't be able to afford it privately.
nradov 3y ago
There's no way UBI will become the norm. I'm certainly not willing to pay higher taxes so that other people can pursue their passions. They can get a job like the rest of us.
- lotsofpulp 3y ago
  The point of UBI is that it is universal, so you also would be getting the basic income, so presumably, you can also pursue your "passions".
  - nradov 3y ago
    Under any conceivable UBI proposal I would receive less additional income than I pay in higher taxes. So no thanks. People who want to pursue their passions can find other sources of funding instead of my taxes. I will certainly vote against any UBI scheme.
    - lotsofpulp 3y ago
      Of course, the whole purpose of UBI is to provide a floor for quality of life by reducing the wealth gap. Therefore, everyone on the higher end, whether deserved or not, have to be brought lower.
- barbazoo 3y ago
  A.k.a "I'm miserable so others should be, too".
  - nradov 3y ago
    Who is miserable? Not me. Being forced to pay higher taxes so that others can goof around creating crappy art would make me miserable, though.
- JSavageOne 3y ago
  In 5-10 years most humans will be economically obsolete because AI will be vastly superior, making UBI inevitable to avoid societal collapse. At that point it will be funny to look back at the arrogance of statements like this.
beepbooptheory 3y ago
I think you might be underestimating the fantastic power of the market to adjust. Once this UBI hits, every single landlord will have the same idea..
- JSavageOne 3y ago
  UBI would ideally be funded by a land value tax (see Henry George's "citizen's dividend")

hguant 3y ago

In 7 years? I think the current crop of pilot tests for UBI are set to finish up in 7 years. No way meaningful UBI gets well enough established in 7 years to be considered "a norm." UBI is this generation's fusion - it's going to be 10 years away until the late 2070s, if at all.

lotsofpulp 3y ago
I have yet to see a pilot test for UBI even begin. Which country’s people are all (universal) receiving an income? The whole thing makes no sense if everyone is not getting it.
- barbazoo 3y ago
  > I have yet to see a pilot test for UBI even begin. Pilots have been done all over the place [0] [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_basic_income_pilots https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_basic_income_pilots
  - lotsofpulp 3y ago
    It cannot be piloted without an entire country being subject to it. The whole point is that ALL the lowest income workers (janitors/fruit pickers/nursing home workers/etc) can quit their job, causing a massive re-pricing of labor and re-allocation of labor. It would cause lots of things to increase in price that are currently priced low simply because someone's parents happened to be from a poorer country that did not speak English, and so on and so forth. Without that, the benefits of UBI can never be observed.
    - barbazoo 3y ago
      > It cannot be piloted without an entire country being subject to it. I mean, that's you changing the definition of what a pilot is. Have you looked into how they were conducted in those countries and how they determine success/failure?
      - lotsofpulp 3y ago
        I do not need to look into how they were conducted. Universal is a condition of universal basic income, without which the dynamics of the labor market cannot change, and hence the benefits cannot be observed. Only once all the lowest paid workers (who ostensibly are doing their job because they have no other option) can drop their jobs and negotiate better compensation can the effects of UBI be seen.
JSavageOne 3y ago
Completely disagree. In 5 years AI will be so advanced that most humans will be economically irrelevant and unable to compete, forcing governments to implement UBI to avoid societal collapse. By 2030 I would be willing to be money that UBI or something resembling UBI will be the norm in most advanced wealthy countries.

dragonwriter 3y ago

> I do think however that by 2030, UBI will be the norm in many wealthy countries, and thus more people will be able to pursue their passions rather than having to sell their soul as dayjobbers to make money for corporations and rich people. 2030 is much too soon for UBI to be an established norm, and even more much to soon for economies to support it at a level which would radically change this dynamic rather than just mitigating perverse incentives that exist at the edges of means-tested poverty support programs.

eastbound 3y ago

UBI is a bane because it kills meritocracy. The reason most people are successful is because they risk a lot if they weren’t. Surprise: Stress is a factor of excellence. You say it yourself: If UBI is introduced, then none of the hard jobs gets done.

saagarjha 3y ago
Even within software there are a lot of excellent projects created by financially secure people. Clearly at least some people do enjoy doing hard work without being threatened for their livelihood.
- tayo42 3y ago
  I interpreted hard work to mean dishwashing, landscaping, janitor in an elementary school etc...
dragonwriter 3y ago
> UBI is a bane because it kills meritocracy. UBI enables meritocracy, it doesn’t kill it.
- tomcam 3y ago
  What if most people paying taxes now opt for UBI instead?
  - e_i_pi_2 3y ago
    The "U" part means everyone would get it, so you don't have to opt for it, and everyone would still pay taxes Another way to think of it is as a negative income tax - as a simple example the equation could be ((income * 0.2) - 20000), so if you make no money you get 20k, if you make 100k you pay no taxes and get nothing, if you make 200k you owe 20. This is using a flat tax rate for simplicity but then everyone get taxes 20% and everyone gets 20k. It's similar to public school - everyone pays for it and everyone gets it, but the purpose is to ensure it's there for people that wouldn't be able to afford it privately.

nradov 3y ago

There's no way UBI will become the norm. I'm certainly not willing to pay higher taxes so that other people can pursue their passions. They can get a job like the rest of us.

lotsofpulp 3y ago
The point of UBI is that it is universal, so you also would be getting the basic income, so presumably, you can also pursue your "passions".
- nradov 3y ago
  Under any conceivable UBI proposal I would receive less additional income than I pay in higher taxes. So no thanks. People who want to pursue their passions can find other sources of funding instead of my taxes. I will certainly vote against any UBI scheme.
  - lotsofpulp 3y ago
    Of course, the whole purpose of UBI is to provide a floor for quality of life by reducing the wealth gap. Therefore, everyone on the higher end, whether deserved or not, have to be brought lower.
barbazoo 3y ago
A.k.a "I'm miserable so others should be, too".
- nradov 3y ago
  Who is miserable? Not me. Being forced to pay higher taxes so that others can goof around creating crappy art would make me miserable, though.
JSavageOne 3y ago
In 5-10 years most humans will be economically obsolete because AI will be vastly superior, making UBI inevitable to avoid societal collapse. At that point it will be funny to look back at the arrogance of statements like this.

beepbooptheory 3y ago

I think you might be underestimating the fantastic power of the market to adjust. Once this UBI hits, every single landlord will have the same idea..

JSavageOne 3y ago
UBI would ideally be funded by a land value tax (see Henry George's "citizen's dividend")