8 ms·

It's not ChatGPT what we should be putting in our forecasts, but its successors. And, from what I have been reading, our AI folk are coming with better performe

by dsign 3y ago

It's not ChatGPT what we should be putting in our forecasts, but its successors. And, from what I have been reading, our AI folk are coming with better performers all the time by chaining multiple neural networks, "making modular brains", so to speak. Any argument that starts by saying "ChatGPT is very bad at X, humans will always do X," is flawed IMO. So I think that any job that can be done by a non-human is up for grabs, but for the sake of the argument, let's restrict it to manual jobs where being human doesn't matter. For example, a kitchen clerk at a burger joint doesn't need to be human, as long as it does all the tasks it needs to do and doesn't put anybody in danger. A security guard at an airport can be a machine gun with wheels, it is more intimidating that way. Picking up coffee cherries from a coffee tree can be done by a machine which is smart enough. But assume that there are jobs "high in the ladder," for amazing engineers and creatives super-charged with AI powers. The problem is that not everybody can climb that ladder. And that's a problem we are already seeing. Right now, if you are highly qualified, you have no trouble getting a decent job. But if you are not, you are fighting for 10 USD/hour shifts somewhere. Imagine if 90% of those shifts are gone. Compound that with our social media (and AIs optimizing for engagement there in) making our kids a little dumber by stealing their attention for long periods of time. It doesn't look good.

TapWaterBandit 3y ago
I'd be quite surprised if AI (as we've seen so far) threatens manual jobs as these have already been under quite intense pressures to automate for well over a century. The low-hanging fruit IMO are most likely to be anything that is done entirely via/inside a computer. Because interacting in the digital world is much less of an issue than having to deal with digital + physical world like manual jobs do. That's not to say it will take all computer jobs but those intuitively seem like they will be the easiest for computer-based AI to do. Something like working in a kitchen is a long way off (or at least will require a redesign of kitchens from the ground up or humanoid robotics that are effective, reliable, and reasonably cheap). Whereas if your job is already entirely done via computer with little real world engagement, then it will be much easier for AI.
- FeepingCreature 3y ago
  An autonomous robot cleaning the dishes on its own in an unfamiliar kitchen without breaking anything: how many years? What's your bet?
  - TapWaterBandit 3y ago
    So you mean like something you can wheel in and install or a humanoid style robot you could use in any kitchen? Cause in theory you're just talking about a dishwasher lol. If you mean a robot that could clean in any kitchen without breaking anything, I'd say at least 20 years. As in you could move it from kitchen to kitchen with no install needs. I suppose another way to look at it is this: how many businesses use robot cleaners to vacuum/mop their floors? Because as far as I can tell that is already solved (basically) but it isn't done because the cost/benefit/efficacy just doesn't add up. What do you think?
    - js8 3y ago
      I can imagine a "box", say 1x1x2 meters, that you get in your home, it will have a plexiglass on it, and inside, it will have several AI-controlled arms, and you will be able to command it to fix anything in that space. Not really sure about cooking, but you could ask for example to fix your trousers, or repair a notebook, or make a fitting for water tap, and so on, and it would autonomously do it (it would ask to order some tools and materials and you would bring them to it). These could also be modular so that they could repair themselves in a limited way. There would also be a larger "boxes" available for fixing larger things. For example, your washing machine broke up, you put it into the "communal" box that is like 6x6 meters, and inside it, it will repair it. Or you could have a communal box that works like a kitchen (but IMHO the biggest problem with AI kitchen is that we cannot easily automate the human taste and smell).
      - FeepingCreature 3y ago
        I find bipedal robots more plausible. Our living spaces are configured for humans; ultimately, something that looks like a human will be best suited to navigate them.
spaceman_2020 3y ago
It has the potential to devastate economies like mine (India) where the entire middle class was built on outsourced tech labor. I can’t see how Infosys and TCS can keep employing 500k people when this tech matures within 5-10 years.
autopilot23 3y ago
A machine gun on wheels, really? Hope it doesn't accidently shoot one of those amazing super-charged engineers and creatives.
danmaz74 3y ago
"A security guard at an airport can be a a machine gun on wheels" - are you serious? That is a job which is 99.99% about understanding human intentions in confusing and ambiguous situations, and where making a mistake will literally kill people. It's the last job you want to automate with "AI".
- raincole 3y ago
  It's a very good example to understand how "AI evangelists" think. Anyone with even slightest common senes would immediately understands why it's a bad idea, but AI evangelists just can't.
  - ido 3y ago
    We had a whole series of films (RoboCop) warning us about exactly this particular Torment Nexus[0] [0] https://twitter.com/alexblechman/status/1457842724128833538 https://twitter.com/alexblechman/status/1457842724128833538
    - staz 3y ago
      non twitter link https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/torment-nexus https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/torment-nexus
  - amoss 3y ago
    So AI evangelism is a role that is ripe for disruption by ChatGPT.
    - gpderetta 3y ago
      What if it already was and AIs are evangelizing for themselves?
  - digitalengineer 3y ago
    It's also very... American to not think mention the absurdity of machine guns at airports, even in the hands of humans. Even if lethal force is required, would you want a security person (not a trained policeman) to "start blasting" and spraying bullets with a machine-gun?
lazystar 3y ago
"as long as" three simple words that are key here. as long as nothing changes, the algorithms that look to the past to predict the future will remain accurate. as long as.
littlestymaar 3y ago
> but for the sake of the argument, let's restrict it to manual jobs where being human doesn't matter. This is the biggest misconception about AI and automation: manual jobs will be the last to be automated, because making robots (which is specialized hardware) is much, much more expensive than making software. That's why our 70s dreams about robots haven't materialized, despite Japan going all in on robots, and why Besos aims to “algorithmically control workers' body”. > It doesn't look good. Having machines do work isn't a problem in itself, in fact that's what the industrial revolution was about, the problem is power and whealth grab by a minority of people owning the means of productions…
verve_rat 3y ago
> A security guard at an airport can be a machine gun with wheels, it is more intimidating that way. Jesus. Fucking. H. Christ. RoboCop (1987) should be required watching before anyone is allowed to touch AI.
- thumbuddy 3y ago
  I love how RoboCop is this extremist satire against capitalism, authoritarianism, rogue technology, etc and we are actually living in a timeline where millions of citizens are plotting their way to be the bad guys in it. Millions of others are desperately trying to recreate the matrix. We're really in for it.
esskay 3y ago
> A security guard at an airport can be a machine gun with wheels, it is more intimidating that way. Out of all the dumb things people could suggest AI for this is without a doubt the dumbest.
- moffkalast 3y ago
  I agree it's a complete waste of opportunity to not make them look like B1 battle droids. I mean seriously, did they even think this over?
- thumbuddy 3y ago
  I've heard worse... Not to downplay it, but yea this is one of the more "out of touch" concepts.
worrycue 3y ago
> But assume that there are jobs "high in the ladder," for amazing engineers and creatives super-charged with AI powers. IMHO such jobs won’t exist. Once AI have reach AGI level there is nothing that a human can do that the AI can’t. Might as well just add more AI. Frankly, what scares me is everyone rushing to advance AI but no one seem to be putting any effort into figuring out what to do about society once humans can no longer trade labor for money.
- ChatGTP 3y ago
  I think if they happened, and we live, which probably isn’t likely, everything will be cheap ?
  - worrycue 3y ago
    But where would the average person get money. No matter how cheap, if you have no money at all you can't pay.
- brightlancer 3y ago
  > Frankly, what scares me is everyone rushing to advance AI but no one seem to be putting any effort into figuring out what to do about society once humans can no longer trade labor for money. Folks pay for handcrafted items today, even when there are cheaper and better mass-manufactured items available. No matter how advanced AI is, humans will pay for things to be done by other humans.
- reustle 3y ago
  > but no one seem to be putting any effort into figuring out what to do about society once humans can no longer trade labor for money. Sam Altman himself spent quite some time on the idea of basic income (2016) https://www.businessinsider.com/inside-y-combinators-basic-income-project-2016-6 https://www.businessinsider.com/inside-y-combinators-basic-i...
scott_w 3y ago
> A security guard at an airport can be a machine gun with wheels, it is more intimidating that way. I think the last thing airports want is for their passengers to be more stressed than they already are.
deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
mchaver 3y ago
I'm not saying things are great now, but I am starting to understand the position of some cultures that have a "it's better to die out than change in a particular direction" attitude.
ChatGTP 3y ago
When I read your post it makes me think the best course of action for most people is to go set fire to the data centers and reclaim their ability to make some cash. Was that intentional ?
ChatGTP 3y ago
What would an economy like the one you describe look like in practice? What would be the use of an AI picking coffee beans if there is no one with a job to buy the coffee beans? There is an unresolved issue here for sure. Unless the machines are self-sustaining, there's not going to be much use for multi-billion dollar data-centers and millions of dollars in electricity bills and expensive robots if there is absolutely zero need for anyone to be using these systems. Tesla has robots making cars, ok, who has a job therefore money to buy a car? Many, many of those who are out of work from the Tesla factory will no longer participate in the economy, and that Robot cop at the airport? That will be pretty lonely once people stop flying for their profession, which would be a large customer base for air travel. A shock this big to the economy could happen quite quick and it would be fairly devastating. I love to think about all this and play with thought experiments, we have very litte clue where this is going. I actually think Robots are more of a human problem than we realize. AI systems probably have, much, much less need for robots than biological species because we actually heavily depend on manipulating the environment for survival.
- wnkrshm 3y ago
  Maybe it's like in the free-to-play video game business: Having one whale (person who spends more on the product) outweighs having lots of smaller customers. The IMO dystopian move is to just let the AI employ humans as 'hands' for subsistence.
- lawrenceyan 3y ago
  This is where a method for distribution like basic income comes in as a companion to capitalism / AI.
lebuffon 3y ago
Robocop... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=REC-ZYWL1to https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=REC-ZYWL1to

by dsign 3y ago

TapWaterBandit 3y ago

I'd be quite surprised if AI (as we've seen so far) threatens manual jobs as these have already been under quite intense pressures to automate for well over a century. The low-hanging fruit IMO are most likely to be anything that is done entirely via/inside a computer. Because interacting in the digital world is much less of an issue than having to deal with digital + physical world like manual jobs do. That's not to say it will take all computer jobs but those intuitively seem like they will be the easiest for computer-based AI to do. Something like working in a kitchen is a long way off (or at least will require a redesign of kitchens from the ground up or humanoid robotics that are effective, reliable, and reasonably cheap). Whereas if your job is already entirely done via computer with little real world engagement, then it will be much easier for AI.

FeepingCreature 3y ago
An autonomous robot cleaning the dishes on its own in an unfamiliar kitchen without breaking anything: how many years? What's your bet?
- TapWaterBandit 3y ago
  So you mean like something you can wheel in and install or a humanoid style robot you could use in any kitchen? Cause in theory you're just talking about a dishwasher lol. If you mean a robot that could clean in any kitchen without breaking anything, I'd say at least 20 years. As in you could move it from kitchen to kitchen with no install needs. I suppose another way to look at it is this: how many businesses use robot cleaners to vacuum/mop their floors? Because as far as I can tell that is already solved (basically) but it isn't done because the cost/benefit/efficacy just doesn't add up. What do you think?
  - js8 3y ago
    I can imagine a "box", say 1x1x2 meters, that you get in your home, it will have a plexiglass on it, and inside, it will have several AI-controlled arms, and you will be able to command it to fix anything in that space. Not really sure about cooking, but you could ask for example to fix your trousers, or repair a notebook, or make a fitting for water tap, and so on, and it would autonomously do it (it would ask to order some tools and materials and you would bring them to it). These could also be modular so that they could repair themselves in a limited way. There would also be a larger "boxes" available for fixing larger things. For example, your washing machine broke up, you put it into the "communal" box that is like 6x6 meters, and inside it, it will repair it. Or you could have a communal box that works like a kitchen (but IMHO the biggest problem with AI kitchen is that we cannot easily automate the human taste and smell).
    - FeepingCreature 3y ago
      I find bipedal robots more plausible. Our living spaces are configured for humans; ultimately, something that looks like a human will be best suited to navigate them.

spaceman_2020 3y ago

It has the potential to devastate economies like mine (India) where the entire middle class was built on outsourced tech labor. I can’t see how Infosys and TCS can keep employing 500k people when this tech matures within 5-10 years.

autopilot23 3y ago

A machine gun on wheels, really? Hope it doesn't accidently shoot one of those amazing super-charged engineers and creatives.

danmaz74 3y ago

"A security guard at an airport can be a a machine gun on wheels" - are you serious? That is a job which is 99.99% about understanding human intentions in confusing and ambiguous situations, and where making a mistake will literally kill people. It's the last job you want to automate with "AI".

raincole 3y ago
It's a very good example to understand how "AI evangelists" think. Anyone with even slightest common senes would immediately understands why it's a bad idea, but AI evangelists just can't.
- ido 3y ago
  We had a whole series of films (RoboCop) warning us about exactly this particular Torment Nexus[0] [0] https://twitter.com/alexblechman/status/1457842724128833538 https://twitter.com/alexblechman/status/1457842724128833538
  - staz 3y ago
    non twitter link https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/torment-nexus https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/torment-nexus
- amoss 3y ago
  So AI evangelism is a role that is ripe for disruption by ChatGPT.
  - gpderetta 3y ago
    What if it already was and AIs are evangelizing for themselves?
- digitalengineer 3y ago
  It's also very... American to not think mention the absurdity of machine guns at airports, even in the hands of humans. Even if lethal force is required, would you want a security person (not a trained policeman) to "start blasting" and spraying bullets with a machine-gun?

lazystar 3y ago

"as long as" three simple words that are key here. as long as nothing changes, the algorithms that look to the past to predict the future will remain accurate. as long as.

littlestymaar 3y ago

> but for the sake of the argument, let's restrict it to manual jobs where being human doesn't matter. This is the biggest misconception about AI and automation: manual jobs will be the last to be automated, because making robots (which is specialized hardware) is much, much more expensive than making software. That's why our 70s dreams about robots haven't materialized, despite Japan going all in on robots, and why Besos aims to “algorithmically control workers' body”. > It doesn't look good. Having machines do work isn't a problem in itself, in fact that's what the industrial revolution was about, the problem is power and whealth grab by a minority of people owning the means of productions…

verve_rat 3y ago

> A security guard at an airport can be a machine gun with wheels, it is more intimidating that way. Jesus. Fucking. H. Christ. RoboCop (1987) should be required watching before anyone is allowed to touch AI.

thumbuddy 3y ago
I love how RoboCop is this extremist satire against capitalism, authoritarianism, rogue technology, etc and we are actually living in a timeline where millions of citizens are plotting their way to be the bad guys in it. Millions of others are desperately trying to recreate the matrix. We're really in for it.

esskay 3y ago

> A security guard at an airport can be a machine gun with wheels, it is more intimidating that way. Out of all the dumb things people could suggest AI for this is without a doubt the dumbest.

moffkalast 3y ago
I agree it's a complete waste of opportunity to not make them look like B1 battle droids. I mean seriously, did they even think this over?
thumbuddy 3y ago
I've heard worse... Not to downplay it, but yea this is one of the more "out of touch" concepts.

worrycue 3y ago

> But assume that there are jobs "high in the ladder," for amazing engineers and creatives super-charged with AI powers. IMHO such jobs won’t exist. Once AI have reach AGI level there is nothing that a human can do that the AI can’t. Might as well just add more AI. Frankly, what scares me is everyone rushing to advance AI but no one seem to be putting any effort into figuring out what to do about society once humans can no longer trade labor for money.

ChatGTP 3y ago
I think if they happened, and we live, which probably isn’t likely, everything will be cheap ?
- worrycue 3y ago
  But where would the average person get money. No matter how cheap, if you have no money at all you can't pay.
brightlancer 3y ago
> Frankly, what scares me is everyone rushing to advance AI but no one seem to be putting any effort into figuring out what to do about society once humans can no longer trade labor for money. Folks pay for handcrafted items today, even when there are cheaper and better mass-manufactured items available. No matter how advanced AI is, humans will pay for things to be done by other humans.
reustle 3y ago
> but no one seem to be putting any effort into figuring out what to do about society once humans can no longer trade labor for money. Sam Altman himself spent quite some time on the idea of basic income (2016) https://www.businessinsider.com/inside-y-combinators-basic-income-project-2016-6 https://www.businessinsider.com/inside-y-combinators-basic-i...

scott_w 3y ago

> A security guard at an airport can be a machine gun with wheels, it is more intimidating that way. I think the last thing airports want is for their passengers to be more stressed than they already are.

deleted 3y ago

[deleted]

mchaver 3y ago

I'm not saying things are great now, but I am starting to understand the position of some cultures that have a "it's better to die out than change in a particular direction" attitude.

ChatGTP 3y ago

When I read your post it makes me think the best course of action for most people is to go set fire to the data centers and reclaim their ability to make some cash. Was that intentional ?

ChatGTP 3y ago

What would an economy like the one you describe look like in practice? What would be the use of an AI picking coffee beans if there is no one with a job to buy the coffee beans? There is an unresolved issue here for sure. Unless the machines are self-sustaining, there's not going to be much use for multi-billion dollar data-centers and millions of dollars in electricity bills and expensive robots if there is absolutely zero need for anyone to be using these systems. Tesla has robots making cars, ok, who has a job therefore money to buy a car? Many, many of those who are out of work from the Tesla factory will no longer participate in the economy, and that Robot cop at the airport? That will be pretty lonely once people stop flying for their profession, which would be a large customer base for air travel. A shock this big to the economy could happen quite quick and it would be fairly devastating. I love to think about all this and play with thought experiments, we have very litte clue where this is going. I actually think Robots are more of a human problem than we realize. AI systems probably have, much, much less need for robots than biological species because we actually heavily depend on manipulating the environment for survival.

wnkrshm 3y ago
Maybe it's like in the free-to-play video game business: Having one whale (person who spends more on the product) outweighs having lots of smaller customers. The IMO dystopian move is to just let the AI employ humans as 'hands' for subsistence.
lawrenceyan 3y ago
This is where a method for distribution like basic income comes in as a companion to capitalism / AI.

lebuffon 3y ago

Robocop... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=REC-ZYWL1to https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=REC-ZYWL1to