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Where will u pick up that Honda Monkey with 100L tank? …see how that is a non argument? Anyway, in the next 20 years, virtually all ICE vehicles need to go awa

by ant6n 3y ago

Where will u pick up that Honda Monkey with 100L tank? …see how that is a non argument? Anyway, in the next 20 years, virtually all ICE vehicles need to go away. There’s basically no option for them except perhaps e-fuels, but given the 5x energy use compared to EVs, they will have extremely limited scope.

jebarker 3y ago
> Anyway, in the next 20 years, virtually all ICE vehicles need to go away. Is this actually possible? i.e. are there actually enough resources and production capacity to replace all ICE vehicles on the road in two decades. I remember hearing Elon Musk suggest it'd take about double that.
- ThrowAway1922A 3y ago
  It’s completely impossible when you bring trains, planes, and boats into the conversation. It’s almost surely impossible to replace the global fleet of cars in that time too.
  - lambda 3y ago
    Don't forget walking, bicycles, e-bikes, electric motorcycles, working from home, buses, etc. Yes, we are behind schedule, and we can't get there just by replacing ICE cars one for one with electric cars, but there is plenty more we can do. Living in walkable neighborhoods. Demanding better infrastructure for more than just cars. Working from home if you have a desk job. And of course personal transport is only part of it. Electricity generation. Industrial precesses like steelmaking, and concrete will need to go carbon neutral as well. Electric cars will be part of it, though. Those infrastructure changes won't happen overnight, we need all possible options at our disposal, it's not either/or, it's "yes, and." But it can be done.
    - jebarker 3y ago
      From my narrow viewpoint in the US mountain west I think the future will look like increase in all those green technologies you mention alongside a legacy of ICE vehicles still in use. There are numerous reasons, some more valid than others, that will stop people transitioning away from ICE. So we'll need tech to counteract that effect. A complete transition to EV is naively optimistic in my opinion.
- adrianN 3y ago
  Given that cars rarely live longer than twenty years and we manage to increase the number of cars every year, I'd say it's very possible.
  - jebarker 3y ago
    The world isn't stopping buying ICE cars today though. It will be a gradual transition.
DwnVoteHoneyPot 3y ago
You can pick up a Honda Monkey with a 5L tank and get the same efficient fuel mileage as they did, just have to fill up more often.
- caseyohara 3y ago
  Actually much better fuel efficiency than they did because of the weight of all the fuel they were lugging around. They achieved 91 mpg. A stock 125cc Monkey is claimed to get 169 mpg, but actual user reports are closer to 120 mpg. https://www.fuelly.com/motorcycle/honda/monkey https://www.fuelly.com/motorcycle/honda/monkey
- ant6n 3y ago
  And you can use solar power for an EV (car, motorbike, train, …), just need to charge more often.
  - DwnVoteHoneyPot 3y ago
    You try going 4,183km to the top of Norway on solar.
ilyt 3y ago
> Where will u pick up that Honda Monkey with 100L tank? …see how that is a non argument? Yes, the lack of monkeys with 100L tank is not an argument; base model will get better fuel efficiency. > Anyway, in the next 20 years, virtually all ICE vehicles need to go away. Pretty sure monkey + the fuel for entirety of its lifetime would still produce less CO2 than EV over lifetime + whatever amount of solar panels and power storage needed to keep it powered.
- paulryanrogers 3y ago
  Don't be too sure. Solar panels can power more than just batteries of a vehicle. Regardless, public transit or a bicycle would be better than all of them
- nl 3y ago
  > Pretty sure monkey + the fuel for entirety of its lifetime would still produce less CO2 than EV over lifetime + whatever amount of solar panels and power storage needed to keep it powered. Doubtful for a similarly sized vehicle. For comparable sized cars, EVs are always better than the ICE equivalent including all production: https://climate.mit.edu/ask-mit/are-electric-vehicles-definitely-better-climate-gas-powered-cars https://climate.mit.edu/ask-mit/are-electric-vehicles-defini...
  - ant6n 3y ago
    Also, by 2050, effectively everything needs to be co2 neutral, that includes electricity generation and manufacturing.

by ant6n 3y ago

jebarker 3y ago

> Anyway, in the next 20 years, virtually all ICE vehicles need to go away. Is this actually possible? i.e. are there actually enough resources and production capacity to replace all ICE vehicles on the road in two decades. I remember hearing Elon Musk suggest it'd take about double that.

ThrowAway1922A 3y ago
It’s completely impossible when you bring trains, planes, and boats into the conversation. It’s almost surely impossible to replace the global fleet of cars in that time too.
- lambda 3y ago
  Don't forget walking, bicycles, e-bikes, electric motorcycles, working from home, buses, etc. Yes, we are behind schedule, and we can't get there just by replacing ICE cars one for one with electric cars, but there is plenty more we can do. Living in walkable neighborhoods. Demanding better infrastructure for more than just cars. Working from home if you have a desk job. And of course personal transport is only part of it. Electricity generation. Industrial precesses like steelmaking, and concrete will need to go carbon neutral as well. Electric cars will be part of it, though. Those infrastructure changes won't happen overnight, we need all possible options at our disposal, it's not either/or, it's "yes, and." But it can be done.
  - jebarker 3y ago
    From my narrow viewpoint in the US mountain west I think the future will look like increase in all those green technologies you mention alongside a legacy of ICE vehicles still in use. There are numerous reasons, some more valid than others, that will stop people transitioning away from ICE. So we'll need tech to counteract that effect. A complete transition to EV is naively optimistic in my opinion.
adrianN 3y ago
Given that cars rarely live longer than twenty years and we manage to increase the number of cars every year, I'd say it's very possible.
- jebarker 3y ago
  The world isn't stopping buying ICE cars today though. It will be a gradual transition.

DwnVoteHoneyPot 3y ago

You can pick up a Honda Monkey with a 5L tank and get the same efficient fuel mileage as they did, just have to fill up more often.

caseyohara 3y ago
Actually much better fuel efficiency than they did because of the weight of all the fuel they were lugging around. They achieved 91 mpg. A stock 125cc Monkey is claimed to get 169 mpg, but actual user reports are closer to 120 mpg. https://www.fuelly.com/motorcycle/honda/monkey https://www.fuelly.com/motorcycle/honda/monkey
ant6n 3y ago
And you can use solar power for an EV (car, motorbike, train, …), just need to charge more often.
- DwnVoteHoneyPot 3y ago
  You try going 4,183km to the top of Norway on solar.

ilyt 3y ago

> Where will u pick up that Honda Monkey with 100L tank? …see how that is a non argument? Yes, the lack of monkeys with 100L tank is not an argument; base model will get better fuel efficiency. > Anyway, in the next 20 years, virtually all ICE vehicles need to go away. Pretty sure monkey + the fuel for entirety of its lifetime would still produce less CO2 than EV over lifetime + whatever amount of solar panels and power storage needed to keep it powered.

paulryanrogers 3y ago
Don't be too sure. Solar panels can power more than just batteries of a vehicle. Regardless, public transit or a bicycle would be better than all of them
nl 3y ago
> Pretty sure monkey + the fuel for entirety of its lifetime would still produce less CO2 than EV over lifetime + whatever amount of solar panels and power storage needed to keep it powered. Doubtful for a similarly sized vehicle. For comparable sized cars, EVs are always better than the ICE equivalent including all production: https://climate.mit.edu/ask-mit/are-electric-vehicles-definitely-better-climate-gas-powered-cars https://climate.mit.edu/ask-mit/are-electric-vehicles-defini...
- ant6n 3y ago
  Also, by 2050, effectively everything needs to be co2 neutral, that includes electricity generation and manufacturing.