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but the great famine was very much man(Mao)-made... of course the economic boom was a great achievement, but it's different from what you're suggesting I think.

by moelf 3y ago

balder1991 3y ago
Also loosely related, the Homo Deus book has a chapter about how humans conquered technically what it classifies as the major challenges that we attributed to gods, including hunger, plagues, and war. It mentions that nowadays, if any of these things cause human destruction it is a political thing and someone somewhere wants that to happen.
- onlyrealcuzzo 3y ago
  Technologically, what do we have that stops famines from happening? Like, are we really immune from some mega drought occuring somewhere that mostly depends on rainfall? Or is that just extremely unlikely to happen, especially at a large scale?
  - MattGaiser 3y ago
    A lot of this probably depends on who "we" refers to. I would imagine that many regions are not immune to a mega drought. For the West specifically, wealthier nations can kind of just export the shortage by paying more for supplies that would go elsewhere. The West also feeds most of its crops to animals, so that is an area for relatively easy reduction in an emergency. 67% of what is grown in the USA is animal food. But that proportion is dramatically lower in places like India. https://www.vox.com/2014/8/21/6053187/cropland-map-food-fuel-animal-feed https://www.vox.com/2014/8/21/6053187/cropland-map-food-fuel...
  - kickout 3y ago
    No we are not immune. At all
  - thriftwy 3y ago
    We can now buy grain in bulk and ship it anywhere through the world.
  - cubefox 3y ago
    There are theories which say that nuclear war, due to firestorms in cities transporting soot into the upper atmosphere, would lead to nuclear winter, which would lead to a global famine: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/pMsnCieusmYqGW26W/how-bad-would-nuclear-winter-caused-by-a-us-russia-nuclear https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/pMsnCieusmYqGW26W/... However, the papers which predict such scenarios have been criticized as being too pessimistic: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jnDibtfvWNHLucf4D/actually-all-nuclear-famine-papers-are-bunk https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jnDibtfvWNHLucf4D/actually-a...
  - retrac 3y ago
    We can move food around. Famines historically tended to be regional; bad climate, or natural or man-made disaster, devastating food production in an area. Before the 19th century moving enough food from another region, or even from another continent to address that local shortfall, was much more challenging. If the 1930s American dustbowl had happened to a densely populated non-industrial society, it would probably have been one of the worst famines in history. Agricultural yields fell by like 50% for several years in the affected region. But they just brought in food from California and Saskatchewan. It was still a disaster, of course. The Russian famine of 1921 was one of the first times industrial societies really mobilized in that way. At the peak grain grown in the USA and donated to the USSR was feeding about 1 in 10 Russians during the famine. One of the largest logistics operations in history up to that point. It's why Herbert Hoover was nominated for the Nobel peace prize five times.
  - nradov 3y ago
    Famines are primarily a political problem, not a technological problem. Our technology has improved agricultural productivity and distribution efficiency, but that doesn't matter when men with guns are stealing food from starving people.
    - fragmede 3y ago
      is it even that blatant? it's in shipping containers that aren't going to be released to the starving because of this simple concept known as paying for things.
      - nradov 3y ago
        It often is that blatant. Even when international donors send free food it often ends up getting seized by government forces or militant groups.
- satysin 3y ago
  This was the first thing that popped into my head too as I read Homo Deus a few months ago. A very accessible book for all. I recommend it. It’s not perfect but it’s a good, easy read compared to other books touching on the same subjects.
retrac 3y ago
It was greatly worsened by Mao's policies. But a famine would have happened anyway. There's no alternate history where different government policy in China could have completely averted the famine of 1960. It was a very poor year agriculturally. There had been famine in China previously in 1942 (1 million dead), 1936 (5 million dead), 1929 (5 million dead), 1906 (25 million dead), 1877 (10 million dead), and millions dead from starvation during the Taiping rebellion of the 1860s. Arguably, quite a few of them were man-made, or at least man-aggravated from warfare. This is not intended as apologia for Mao. His policies likely resulted in several million more deaths than might have otherwise happened. I just want to show that famine was routine in preindustrial agricultural societies.
- oatmeal1 3y ago
  > His policies likely resulted in several million more deaths than might have otherwise happened. Perhaps more than several million when estimates are between 15 and 55 million dead.
  - dmix 3y ago
    Just imagine all the coffins / mass burials during COVID and times that by thousands. Must have devastated whole communities and scared them for life.
    - loeg 3y ago
      Mass burials during Covid? I think you might be misremembering.
      - jaynetics 3y ago
        https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52241221 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52241221
        Dylan16807 3y ago
        > which has been used for more than 150 years by city officials as a mass burial site for those with no next-of-kin, or families who cannot afford funerals. Interesting. Good to know and also not the impression I got from just "mass burials". > Normally, about 25 bodies a week are interred on the island, according to the Associated Press news agency. But burial operations have increased from one day a week to five days a week, with around 24 burials each day > It is not clear how many of the dead have no next-of-kin or could not afford a funeral. That's a pretty important question to answer. Any idea? And that was early enough in understanding COVID that it would make sense to do this kind of small mass burial with hazmat suits even if the death rate was unchanged.

but the great famine was very much man(Mao)-made... of course the economic boom was a great achievement, but it's different from what you're suggesting I think.

by moelf 3y ago

but the great famine was very much man(Mao)-made... of course the economic boom was a great achievement, but it's different from what you're suggesting I think.

balder1991 3y ago

Also loosely related, the Homo Deus book has a chapter about how humans conquered technically what it classifies as the major challenges that we attributed to gods, including hunger, plagues, and war. It mentions that nowadays, if any of these things cause human destruction it is a political thing and someone somewhere wants that to happen.

onlyrealcuzzo 3y ago
Technologically, what do we have that stops famines from happening? Like, are we really immune from some mega drought occuring somewhere that mostly depends on rainfall? Or is that just extremely unlikely to happen, especially at a large scale?
- MattGaiser 3y ago
  A lot of this probably depends on who "we" refers to. I would imagine that many regions are not immune to a mega drought. For the West specifically, wealthier nations can kind of just export the shortage by paying more for supplies that would go elsewhere. The West also feeds most of its crops to animals, so that is an area for relatively easy reduction in an emergency. 67% of what is grown in the USA is animal food. But that proportion is dramatically lower in places like India. https://www.vox.com/2014/8/21/6053187/cropland-map-food-fuel-animal-feed https://www.vox.com/2014/8/21/6053187/cropland-map-food-fuel...
- kickout 3y ago
  No we are not immune. At all
- thriftwy 3y ago
  We can now buy grain in bulk and ship it anywhere through the world.
- cubefox 3y ago
  There are theories which say that nuclear war, due to firestorms in cities transporting soot into the upper atmosphere, would lead to nuclear winter, which would lead to a global famine: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/pMsnCieusmYqGW26W/how-bad-would-nuclear-winter-caused-by-a-us-russia-nuclear https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/pMsnCieusmYqGW26W/... However, the papers which predict such scenarios have been criticized as being too pessimistic: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jnDibtfvWNHLucf4D/actually-all-nuclear-famine-papers-are-bunk https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jnDibtfvWNHLucf4D/actually-a...
- retrac 3y ago
  We can move food around. Famines historically tended to be regional; bad climate, or natural or man-made disaster, devastating food production in an area. Before the 19th century moving enough food from another region, or even from another continent to address that local shortfall, was much more challenging. If the 1930s American dustbowl had happened to a densely populated non-industrial society, it would probably have been one of the worst famines in history. Agricultural yields fell by like 50% for several years in the affected region. But they just brought in food from California and Saskatchewan. It was still a disaster, of course. The Russian famine of 1921 was one of the first times industrial societies really mobilized in that way. At the peak grain grown in the USA and donated to the USSR was feeding about 1 in 10 Russians during the famine. One of the largest logistics operations in history up to that point. It's why Herbert Hoover was nominated for the Nobel peace prize five times.
- nradov 3y ago
  Famines are primarily a political problem, not a technological problem. Our technology has improved agricultural productivity and distribution efficiency, but that doesn't matter when men with guns are stealing food from starving people.
  - fragmede 3y ago
    is it even that blatant? it's in shipping containers that aren't going to be released to the starving because of this simple concept known as paying for things.
    - nradov 3y ago
      It often is that blatant. Even when international donors send free food it often ends up getting seized by government forces or militant groups.
satysin 3y ago
This was the first thing that popped into my head too as I read Homo Deus a few months ago. A very accessible book for all. I recommend it. It’s not perfect but it’s a good, easy read compared to other books touching on the same subjects.

retrac 3y ago

It was greatly worsened by Mao's policies. But a famine would have happened anyway. There's no alternate history where different government policy in China could have completely averted the famine of 1960. It was a very poor year agriculturally. There had been famine in China previously in 1942 (1 million dead), 1936 (5 million dead), 1929 (5 million dead), 1906 (25 million dead), 1877 (10 million dead), and millions dead from starvation during the Taiping rebellion of the 1860s. Arguably, quite a few of them were man-made, or at least man-aggravated from warfare. This is not intended as apologia for Mao. His policies likely resulted in several million more deaths than might have otherwise happened. I just want to show that famine was routine in preindustrial agricultural societies.

oatmeal1 3y ago
> His policies likely resulted in several million more deaths than might have otherwise happened. Perhaps more than several million when estimates are between 15 and 55 million dead.
- dmix 3y ago
  Just imagine all the coffins / mass burials during COVID and times that by thousands. Must have devastated whole communities and scared them for life.
  - loeg 3y ago
    Mass burials during Covid? I think you might be misremembering.
    - jaynetics 3y ago
      https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52241221 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52241221
      - Dylan16807 3y ago
        > which has been used for more than 150 years by city officials as a mass burial site for those with no next-of-kin, or families who cannot afford funerals. Interesting. Good to know and also not the impression I got from just "mass burials". > Normally, about 25 bodies a week are interred on the island, according to the Associated Press news agency. But burial operations have increased from one day a week to five days a week, with around 24 burials each day > It is not clear how many of the dead have no next-of-kin or could not afford a funeral. That's a pretty important question to answer. Any idea? And that was early enough in understanding COVID that it would make sense to do this kind of small mass burial with hazmat suits even if the death rate was unchanged.