6 ms·

Either the man is suicidal or he has backing that has yet to be revealed. Also, being a mercenary, there's also the possibility he's been bought by a higher bid

by c420 3y ago

Either the man is suicidal or he has backing that has yet to be revealed. Also, being a mercenary, there's also the possibility he's been bought by a higher bidder.

SideburnsOfDoom 3y ago
Don't underestimate the possibility of someone making a big mistake. It would not even be the first Russian big mistake since they crossed the border into Ukraine thinking that they'd take Kyiv in 48 hours. Also, near-suicidal gambles look more appealing when someone has no better options.
msandford 3y ago
It could also be he's read the tea leaves of massive sanctions and figures the west would support a softer, friendlier Russian leader, whoever that is. Still probably suicidal doing that kind of thing on speculation.
- SideburnsOfDoom 3y ago
  > figures the west would support a softer, friendlier Russian leader, whoever that is. regardless of if that's true, Prigozhin is not that "softer, friendlier" guy. It's likely more internally focussed and not about us - don't make the mistake of thinking of the West as the main character here. More likely, it's about who would _Russia_ support, and reaching the opposite conclusion about what kind of leader they want.
- pessimizer 3y ago
  The problem is that he's the opposite of a softer friendlier Russian leader. He's a billionaire oligarch with a private army. Russia being taken over by Prigozhin would be a disaster even worse than ISIS rising from the destruction of Iraq.
  - msandford 3y ago
    Yeah that's my mistake. I'm not arguing he's going to appear that way by throwing a coup. I'm suggesting that lots of people act a way, and then they change for a job. If he wanted the leader of Russia job and had to act nicer to the west to keep it, well, that's a possibility.
andix 3y ago
Most rich people in Russia probably want the pre-2014 political situation back. Where they could make a lot of money, by exploitation of Russia and it's people, trade with the west without sanctions and spend their money there. The higher bidder may not be too hard to find.
- graymatters 3y ago
  There is no turning back the wheel of time. They understand it.
- jacknews 3y ago
  None of these people made their money on their own account, it was always at the very least with Putin's blessing, and kickbacks, but much of it entirely on putins's account - ie many of these russian billionaire oligarchs are essentially putin's senior managers.
GaggiX 3y ago
I think he's just seeking power.
hef19898 3y ago
Apparently, Ukrainian intel had contacts to Prigozhin like a month or so ago. Maybe he has beek turned after being, well, betrayed in Bakhmut. Timing this coup with the Ukrainian counter offensive is sure interesting so. Two take aways: The Russian invaison of Ukraine was among the most stupid ideas of the 21st century. And Ukraine is playing this whole thing incredibly well.
- moffkalast 3y ago
  If the CIA isn't at least partially behind this then their competence has been greatly exaggerated. I mean toppling regimes is like their whole thing.
  - microtonal 3y ago
    I think that would be extremely risky and therefore unlikely. If the CIA was behind this and this coup fails and it can be proven, it would legitimize the use of nukes following the Russian doctrine. That doesn't mean that Russia would use them, but it would be a significant escalation on the nuclear ladder. Also not something that is really in line with the signalling of the US, which shows acute awareness that everyone loses in a nuclear tit for tat. It's more likely that Prigozhin: wanted to topple military leadership, but Putin chose their side, so he has no other option to go after Putin; sees a window of opportunity to topple Putin and replace him; or is simply paid by a higher bidder.
    - andix 3y ago
      I think they have a lot of practice to do work without being seen.
    - pessimizer 3y ago
      I'm afraid that Russia could nuke Ukraine just to remove a front and focus all its attention on Wagner.
      - microtonal 3y ago
bsaul 3y ago
"Also, being a mercenary, there's also the possibility he's been bought by a higher bidder" The fact that this hasn't even come to my mind yet baffles me. It's such a logical explanation as to what has been going on between prigogine and the RU regime in the previous weeks... Imagine the scene : a conglomerate of ukranian mobsters, russian oligarchs, and CIA agents, around the table with Prigogine in a secret location in Dombass, nearby the front line, talking about the tag to put on Putin's head. I want Quentin Tarantino to shoot that scene !!
- 2-718-281-828 3y ago
  > The fact that this hasn't even come to my mind yet baffles me. same here. this options opens up an entire world of possibilities.
- belter 3y ago
  Watch for a 5 Billion Dollars newt line item, under "external projects", in the Pentagon next year budget...
- Zandikar 3y ago
  Because it takes more than money and the word of the top man to successfully turn around and attack your own homeland. Yes, they're mercenaries, but they're largely Russian mercenaries, subject to much of the same propaganda. Prigozhin's people don't just blindly follow. Granted, Russia did a lot of the convincing for them it seems with lack of support and alleged friendly fire incidents, but still. The reason this wasn't really an option on the proverbial table is because things had to get bad enough first for Russia/it's mercs to even acknowledge that table existed. Afterall, keep in mind who these people are, and how many countless and considerable, merited justification the western powers sitting at that table have to drag their ass to court and/or a firing line. Keep in mind, dropping fat stacks on said table doesn't mean much to a Russian in Russia in the current climate if those stacks are American dollars (and the recipient wishes to remain within the Russian sphere of influence, and promises of payment upon completion are less compelling than cash that can be spent upfront to pay for a coup for example). And it might be hard for foreign powers to come up with enough rubles that would both be worth it and wouldn't throw up a lot of red flags before hand. Now, if anyone can do it, it's the alleged shadowy figures we're alluding to here, but the ultimate point is that such a thing is not something that happens quick, or easy, or when things are going "good" for the people you're trying to turn traitor. The reality is this hasn't happened because it's a whole lot more complicated than simply showing up with enough cash in your pocket, because even that alone is a huge undertaking all thing considered. For the record I don't necessarily think this is the primary impetus for the coup, but I'd be shocked if there weren't very serious powers making serious efforts to achieve something like this, and as a result, likely had non-trivial influence here. I highly doubt it's as simple as Wagner just getting bought out though. If anything I'd say this as much opportunism and initiative by Prigozhin himself as it as any foreign powers work. EDIT: Think I had a stroke typing this originally, cleaned up all the typos, sorry.
dreen 3y ago
Most likely his ass was literally on fire, and doing or not doing this had the same risk
Ralfp 3y ago
He’s not a mercenary. His old nickname was „Putin’s cook”, because he ran the restaurant over 20 years ago that Putin ate at once and found liking to him. Since then this guy was one of Putins favorite oligarchs. The state gave him money which he used to start more companies, eventually developing state within state. One of his conpanies was major catering provider for Russian government, administration, schools and the army. He runs dozens of companies, including media companies running paper and internet press. He is also known to be behind part of russian propaganda and public opinion influence operation in western internet. It was noted that some hyper-active polish-speaking twitter accounts that were famously anti-ukraine have gone silent in last two days - the suspection is that those belonged to his troll farms that Kremlin has seized. Wagner group was his latest enterprise and fighting wars around the world made him even richer, but he is not a mercenary. He is an oligarch who got too powerful and Kremlin is now trying to strike him down. He’s a brigand turned convenience store clerk who by some means took control on whole network of those stores which led him open his own restaurant and then Putin elevated into oligarch because he though that his debt to him will make him forever loyal.
- 36364949thrw 3y ago
  Russia never emerged from feudalism. It played at communism and it is now playing as a federation, but it remains essentially a feudalist political environment. I mean, sending Chechens to Rostov to put down a mutiny -- any old sultan would relate. Russia's prestige has been fatally damaged. This is not a world leading nation, Global South has likely noted. But it is worrying that this turn of events increases the likelihood of runway escalations on various fronts.
victorbjorklund 3y ago
Could also be the fact that he has been pushing against the regime for months and he realised (or maybe even got intel) that kremlin will try to get rid of him. And if the choice is between a guaranteed fall from a window or a hail marry coup with a 10% chance of some kind of success it doesnt look as crazy.
- hdjjhhvvhga 3y ago
  OK this explains his motives. But what about his army? These are thousands of soldiers who know exactly the risk they take - so they probably need a high level of confidence to pull that off.
pixelesque 3y ago
More likely he saw the writing on the wall (or an open window!), given PMCs like Wagner have a deadline of signing contracts to become more integrated in the Russian army command on 1st July, and with most of Wagner having just pulled out of Bakhmut, this was a small window of opportunity with most Russian forces otherwise engaged in Ukraine. He was possibly thinking he was also being set up as a fall guy...
- gpderetta 3y ago
  It can be both. He might have sensed that he was losing Putin favor and decided to defect.
brucethemoose2 3y ago
The MoD asked Wagner to turn over their forces, and Prigozhin has been very critical. Technically his mercenery corp is illegal in Russia. I think its the opposite: Prigozhin fears for his life. He is dead if he ”surrenders," but he has a slim chance to live if he defies the Russian military. My impression from Russian journalists is that this is a theme in Russia.
- chasd00 3y ago
  I've heard that theory too and it makes sense. Prigozhin is a dead man and he knows it, a coup attempt at least has a > 0 percent chance of his survival. Signing the contract means he falls out of a window in 24 months tops.

by c420 3y ago

Either the man is suicidal or he has backing that has yet to be revealed. Also, being a mercenary, there's also the possibility he's been bought by a higher bidder.

SideburnsOfDoom 3y ago

Don't underestimate the possibility of someone making a big mistake. It would not even be the first Russian big mistake since they crossed the border into Ukraine thinking that they'd take Kyiv in 48 hours. Also, near-suicidal gambles look more appealing when someone has no better options.

msandford 3y ago

It could also be he's read the tea leaves of massive sanctions and figures the west would support a softer, friendlier Russian leader, whoever that is. Still probably suicidal doing that kind of thing on speculation.

SideburnsOfDoom 3y ago
> figures the west would support a softer, friendlier Russian leader, whoever that is. regardless of if that's true, Prigozhin is not that "softer, friendlier" guy. It's likely more internally focussed and not about us - don't make the mistake of thinking of the West as the main character here. More likely, it's about who would _Russia_ support, and reaching the opposite conclusion about what kind of leader they want.
pessimizer 3y ago
The problem is that he's the opposite of a softer friendlier Russian leader. He's a billionaire oligarch with a private army. Russia being taken over by Prigozhin would be a disaster even worse than ISIS rising from the destruction of Iraq.
- msandford 3y ago
  Yeah that's my mistake. I'm not arguing he's going to appear that way by throwing a coup. I'm suggesting that lots of people act a way, and then they change for a job. If he wanted the leader of Russia job and had to act nicer to the west to keep it, well, that's a possibility.

andix 3y ago

Most rich people in Russia probably want the pre-2014 political situation back. Where they could make a lot of money, by exploitation of Russia and it's people, trade with the west without sanctions and spend their money there. The higher bidder may not be too hard to find.

graymatters 3y ago
There is no turning back the wheel of time. They understand it.
jacknews 3y ago
None of these people made their money on their own account, it was always at the very least with Putin's blessing, and kickbacks, but much of it entirely on putins's account - ie many of these russian billionaire oligarchs are essentially putin's senior managers.

GaggiX 3y ago

I think he's just seeking power.

hef19898 3y ago

Apparently, Ukrainian intel had contacts to Prigozhin like a month or so ago. Maybe he has beek turned after being, well, betrayed in Bakhmut. Timing this coup with the Ukrainian counter offensive is sure interesting so. Two take aways: The Russian invaison of Ukraine was among the most stupid ideas of the 21st century. And Ukraine is playing this whole thing incredibly well.

moffkalast 3y ago
If the CIA isn't at least partially behind this then their competence has been greatly exaggerated. I mean toppling regimes is like their whole thing.
- microtonal 3y ago
  I think that would be extremely risky and therefore unlikely. If the CIA was behind this and this coup fails and it can be proven, it would legitimize the use of nukes following the Russian doctrine. That doesn't mean that Russia would use them, but it would be a significant escalation on the nuclear ladder. Also not something that is really in line with the signalling of the US, which shows acute awareness that everyone loses in a nuclear tit for tat. It's more likely that Prigozhin: wanted to topple military leadership, but Putin chose their side, so he has no other option to go after Putin; sees a window of opportunity to topple Putin and replace him; or is simply paid by a higher bidder.
  - andix 3y ago
    I think they have a lot of practice to do work without being seen.
  - pessimizer 3y ago
    I'm afraid that Russia could nuke Ukraine just to remove a front and focus all its attention on Wagner.
    - microtonal 3y ago

bsaul 3y ago

"Also, being a mercenary, there's also the possibility he's been bought by a higher bidder" The fact that this hasn't even come to my mind yet baffles me. It's such a logical explanation as to what has been going on between prigogine and the RU regime in the previous weeks... Imagine the scene : a conglomerate of ukranian mobsters, russian oligarchs, and CIA agents, around the table with Prigogine in a secret location in Dombass, nearby the front line, talking about the tag to put on Putin's head. I want Quentin Tarantino to shoot that scene !!

2-718-281-828 3y ago
> The fact that this hasn't even come to my mind yet baffles me. same here. this options opens up an entire world of possibilities.
belter 3y ago
Watch for a 5 Billion Dollars newt line item, under "external projects", in the Pentagon next year budget...
Zandikar 3y ago
Because it takes more than money and the word of the top man to successfully turn around and attack your own homeland. Yes, they're mercenaries, but they're largely Russian mercenaries, subject to much of the same propaganda. Prigozhin's people don't just blindly follow. Granted, Russia did a lot of the convincing for them it seems with lack of support and alleged friendly fire incidents, but still. The reason this wasn't really an option on the proverbial table is because things had to get bad enough first for Russia/it's mercs to even acknowledge that table existed. Afterall, keep in mind who these people are, and how many countless and considerable, merited justification the western powers sitting at that table have to drag their ass to court and/or a firing line. Keep in mind, dropping fat stacks on said table doesn't mean much to a Russian in Russia in the current climate if those stacks are American dollars (and the recipient wishes to remain within the Russian sphere of influence, and promises of payment upon completion are less compelling than cash that can be spent upfront to pay for a coup for example). And it might be hard for foreign powers to come up with enough rubles that would both be worth it and wouldn't throw up a lot of red flags before hand. Now, if anyone can do it, it's the alleged shadowy figures we're alluding to here, but the ultimate point is that such a thing is not something that happens quick, or easy, or when things are going "good" for the people you're trying to turn traitor. The reality is this hasn't happened because it's a whole lot more complicated than simply showing up with enough cash in your pocket, because even that alone is a huge undertaking all thing considered. For the record I don't necessarily think this is the primary impetus for the coup, but I'd be shocked if there weren't very serious powers making serious efforts to achieve something like this, and as a result, likely had non-trivial influence here. I highly doubt it's as simple as Wagner just getting bought out though. If anything I'd say this as much opportunism and initiative by Prigozhin himself as it as any foreign powers work. EDIT: Think I had a stroke typing this originally, cleaned up all the typos, sorry.

dreen 3y ago

Most likely his ass was literally on fire, and doing or not doing this had the same risk

Ralfp 3y ago

He’s not a mercenary. His old nickname was „Putin’s cook”, because he ran the restaurant over 20 years ago that Putin ate at once and found liking to him. Since then this guy was one of Putins favorite oligarchs. The state gave him money which he used to start more companies, eventually developing state within state. One of his conpanies was major catering provider for Russian government, administration, schools and the army. He runs dozens of companies, including media companies running paper and internet press. He is also known to be behind part of russian propaganda and public opinion influence operation in western internet. It was noted that some hyper-active polish-speaking twitter accounts that were famously anti-ukraine have gone silent in last two days - the suspection is that those belonged to his troll farms that Kremlin has seized. Wagner group was his latest enterprise and fighting wars around the world made him even richer, but he is not a mercenary. He is an oligarch who got too powerful and Kremlin is now trying to strike him down. He’s a brigand turned convenience store clerk who by some means took control on whole network of those stores which led him open his own restaurant and then Putin elevated into oligarch because he though that his debt to him will make him forever loyal.

36364949thrw 3y ago
Russia never emerged from feudalism. It played at communism and it is now playing as a federation, but it remains essentially a feudalist political environment. I mean, sending Chechens to Rostov to put down a mutiny -- any old sultan would relate. Russia's prestige has been fatally damaged. This is not a world leading nation, Global South has likely noted. But it is worrying that this turn of events increases the likelihood of runway escalations on various fronts.

victorbjorklund 3y ago

Could also be the fact that he has been pushing against the regime for months and he realised (or maybe even got intel) that kremlin will try to get rid of him. And if the choice is between a guaranteed fall from a window or a hail marry coup with a 10% chance of some kind of success it doesnt look as crazy.

hdjjhhvvhga 3y ago
OK this explains his motives. But what about his army? These are thousands of soldiers who know exactly the risk they take - so they probably need a high level of confidence to pull that off.

pixelesque 3y ago

More likely he saw the writing on the wall (or an open window!), given PMCs like Wagner have a deadline of signing contracts to become more integrated in the Russian army command on 1st July, and with most of Wagner having just pulled out of Bakhmut, this was a small window of opportunity with most Russian forces otherwise engaged in Ukraine. He was possibly thinking he was also being set up as a fall guy...

gpderetta 3y ago
It can be both. He might have sensed that he was losing Putin favor and decided to defect.

brucethemoose2 3y ago

The MoD asked Wagner to turn over their forces, and Prigozhin has been very critical. Technically his mercenery corp is illegal in Russia. I think its the opposite: Prigozhin fears for his life. He is dead if he ”surrenders," but he has a slim chance to live if he defies the Russian military. My impression from Russian journalists is that this is a theme in Russia.

chasd00 3y ago
I've heard that theory too and it makes sense. Prigozhin is a dead man and he knows it, a coup attempt at least has a > 0 percent chance of his survival. Signing the contract means he falls out of a window in 24 months tops.