6 ms·

Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone (2007)

70 points by shadowtree 3y ago

simulosius 3y ago
That definitely didn't age very well.
drewbeck 3y ago
So tasty. And useful, to remind us what “smart” “sober” commentary looks like in tech — mostly negative, mostly missing the mark. > What Apple risks here is its reputation as a hot company that can do no wrong. If it's smart it will call the iPhone a "reference design" and pass it to some suckers to build with someone else's marketing budget. Then it can wash its hands of any marketplace failures.
zipster90 3y ago
My first thought before I clicked this was "I bet Dvorak wrote this" and whaddaya know...
- kmeisthax 3y ago
  John C. Dvorak is the Jim Kramer of technology journalism.
  - harry8 3y ago
    Oh come on now that's not fair. No matter how utterly woeful and corrupt tech journalism had been (and horrific is the adjective I'd use) drawing parallels to Jim Kramer is just unseemly.
- 2muchcoffeeman 3y ago
  Thanks for clicking through and TOFTT. Sometimes opinions are wrong in hindsight but they could have been totally logical at the time. But that guy. This is not really worth then.
i386 3y ago
John C. Dvorak is famous for bad takes. But if you’re alluding to Apple Vision being successful because he was an iPhone naysayer, you’re wrong. Reality doesn’t work that way. The jury is still out on VR and it changes little when Apple enters the market at that price point and there’s not a killer problem for it.
- mjamesaustin 3y ago
  Many analysts and pundits aren't acting like the jury's still out, though. Similarly to the iPhone, many who haven't touched it are reporting it DOA, even as some people are leaving actual demos with intensely positive reviews.
  - i386 3y ago
    The iPhone solved an incredibly useful problem because it put the internet in your pocket. No one has a “computer room” at home. What is the problem that the vision solves? I can watch TV on a huge screen in my living room? I already have a large screen in my living room. It’s like stuff I can already easily do but with extra steps and a $3500 US price tag.
    - rado 3y ago
      It's the next step in Apple's consistent strategy to diminish the physical device and enhance its services (computing). iMac: where did the computer go? Vision: there is no TV, but the TV watching experience is great.
    - dharmab 3y ago
      I have both a media room and work computer room. My parents have two computer rooms. My sister want a room when she can get a house. Many of my friends have dedicated rooms for computers.
    - geon 3y ago
      The keynote was certainly weird. It seems they imagine it being used to run regular 2d apps.
chrgy 3y ago
People who are crazy enough that think they can change the world are only the ones who do, so when Steve Jobs has to deal with these non-sense so he never said what he is working on, he focused on shipping great products: "There is no likelihood that Apple can be successful in a business this competitive. Even in the business where it is a clear pioneer, the personal computer, it had to compete with Microsoft and can only sustain a 5% market share."
- ttul 3y ago
  "Innovation distinguishes between a leader and a follower." - Steve Jobs.
  - amelius 3y ago
    He was more a religious leader than anything else.
wenc 3y ago
I love contrarian takes but I don’t love uninformed cynical takes not backed up by data or experience, especially the kind we’ve been seeing the past few days with Apple Vision Pro. (John C Dvorak was also commenting about the unreleased iPhone at the time of writing) Reality is the best teacher and cynics (as opposed to honest critics) are best disregarded and downvoted. When unsure, I remind myself it’s best to reserve judgement and see how things play out and not overgeneralize from my own limited preferences. I tell myself that I am one small speck in the market — i do not represent the market. Because even if cynics turn out to be right, their reasons for being right are random and we learn nothing from them. In financial market for instance it’s not enough to be right (it’s a coin toss) but to have the right reasons for being right.
- henrikschroder 3y ago
  > but I don’t love uninformed cynical takes not backed up by data or experience Here's some data: When the iPhone was introduced, the global mobile phone market moved over a billion devices a year. The iPhone solved very real problems that people were having, and delivered a device that did everything better than the competition. They put a real browser in the thing, removing the need for WAP and other shitty technologies for consuming content on mobile. They got the form factor and keyboard right. It was expensive, but not 10x more expensive. The iPhone replaced a device that everyone was already willingly carrying around in their pockets, and had been carrying around for over a decade at that point. The global VR headset market moved 20 million devices last year. For most people, VR headsets are a gimmick, a novelty, they bought one, tried it, put it on a shelf. People aren't carrying one around, people aren't using it as their main computing interface, people aren't throwing away their monitors or TVs or gaming consoles. If someone has a VR headset, it's a non-essential plaything. The Apple Vision is ~10x as expensive, in a market that's 1/50th of what the mobile phone market was in 2007, and it's still not solving obvious pain points that are stopping people from getting a VR headset. What problems does it solve? What device does it replace? > When unsure, I remind myself it’s best to reserve judgement and see how things play out and not overgeneralize from my own limited preferences. I tell myself that I am one small speck in the market — i do not represent the market. "God^H^H^HApple moves in mysterious ways, it's best not to question The Lord!" Come on. Apple Vision entering the VR market is fundamentally different from the iPhone entering the mobile phone market, which is why posts like this, trying to make Apple Vision criticism equivalent to iPhone criticism, are completely wrong.
outside1234 3y ago
[flagged]
deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
josu 3y ago
>In fact it's gone so far that it's in the process of consolidation with probably two players dominating everything, Nokia Corp. and Motorola Inc. Even the closing sentence is funny; consolidated into bankruptcy. But hey, at least the article is consistent in getting everything wrong.
- pornel 3y ago
  He's probably a decent analyst, and intentionally writes the exact opposite for clicks. It's hard to be so wrong 100% of the time.
westurner 3y ago
Competitors at the time included Nokia (Symbian OS), Palm, Windows Mobile, Blackberry, OpenMoko, and Android; but not Apple Newton OS (1987-1998). Cisco IOS (for network gear) was created in the 1980s. It was possible to run Linux on the 1st gen iPod (2001). IIRC the Archos Jukebox also had a 2.5" drive enclosure with audio (and then video on a color LCD) decoding.
russellbeattie 3y ago
I joined Nokia in 2008 about a year after the iPhone launch, and even at that late date, the general consensus was that it wasn't a big deal and/or just an American thing, similar to Japan's i-mode. For those of us who knew what a leap ahead it was - the capacitive touch screen alone changed everything, let alone the usability and functionality like the physical mute switch - it was an uphill battle to convince decision makers how much of a paradigm shift it was. In fact my first boss, the CTO based in Palo Alto where I worked - had a boardroom showdown about it and lost, resigning immediately after. Dvorak wasn't the only one with his head stuck in the sand. A lot of actual industry players just couldn't get it either. Blackberry for example. The most amazing thing to me, honestly, is how quickly Google shifted gears. Android first launched with an emulator that looked exactly like the Nokia E71, Symbian phone with the exact same UX. I posted a video of it on Vimeo back then [1] (it's still there!!!). Within the year they had turned 90° and copied the iPhone in almost every way. That's Silicon Valley flexibility and drive which Nokia and other established mobile companies just couldn't match. 1. https://vimeo.com/384481 https://vimeo.com/384481
brandonmenc 3y ago
Before you get mad, understand that John C. Dvorak does it just for the clicks: https://youtu.be/gOHzHVF-4Mg https://youtu.be/gOHzHVF-4Mg
- babbledabbler 3y ago
  ...and still getting clicks 16 years later. Respect.
holoduke 3y ago
Off topic, but this site has literally 6 advertising blocks in the article and still it asks for a subscription. I am running a multi million user platform, but in no way i need to have such a destructive monetization model. My users would flee. My platform would die quickly.
mistersquid 3y ago
John C. Dvorak is an admitted anti-Apple troll who went all in on click-bait to drive advertising revenue: a pioneer, if you will. [0] Eventually, he pissed of his editorship about 5G advertorial and was fired. [1] [2] [0] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NMQv0j29WHA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NMQv0j29WHA [1] https://web.archive.org/web/20181007013846/https://medium.com/@dvorak/5g-got-me-fired-ce407e584c4a https://web.archive.org/web/20181007013846/https://medium.co... [2] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18157869 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18157869
gtop3 3y ago
> Now compare that effort and overlay the mobile handset business. This is not an emerging business. In fact it's gone so far that it's in the process of consolidation with probably two players dominating everything, Nokia Corp and Motorola I've never seen someone be so right and so wrong at the same time.
m3kw9 3y ago
Imagine seeing his on investment portfolio if he makes dumbazz predictions like that
notJim 3y ago
> On February 19, 1984, in an article in The San Francisco Examiner, Dvorak listed the mouse as one of many reasons Apple Inc.'s Macintosh computer might not be successful: "The Macintosh uses an experimental pointing device called a ‘mouse’. There is no evidence that people want to use these things." Incredible. From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_C._Dvorak https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_C._Dvorak
indymike 3y ago
This one was not John Dvorak's best predictions, and he really should have seen this one coming. The PC was a general purpose device that replaced a whole office full of fairly expensive specialty devices (word processor, fax, teletype, calculator, intercom system, etc...). iPhone was no different. General purpose that could replace a bunch of expensive specialty devices (anyone else have a PDA, phone, music player, camera, GPS, etc...) at a personal level. It was obvious iPhone would succeed and it was equally obvious that Android was running the Wintel play and Apple was playing the Apple play with iPhone.
elpool2 3y ago
In 2007 the question was "can Apple compete with other cell phone makers". The market for cell phones (even smart phones) was already well established, but Dvorak here says the iphone "will be passé within 3 months". What he didn't know is that Apple had made something far better than all the competition. Now, with AR/VR I think the skeptics aren't saying Apple's product won't be good, but that even if it's the best product in the category there's still just not much of a market for it.

70 points by shadowtree 3y ago

That definitely didn't age very well.

So tasty. And useful, to remind us what “smart” “sober” commentary looks like in tech — mostly negative, mostly missing the mark. > What Apple risks here is its reputation as a hot company that can do no wrong. If it's smart it will call the iPhone a "reference design" and pass it to some suckers to build with someone else's marketing budget. Then it can wash its hands of any marketplace failures.

zipster90 3y ago

My first thought before I clicked this was "I bet Dvorak wrote this" and whaddaya know...

kmeisthax 3y ago
John C. Dvorak is the Jim Kramer of technology journalism.
- harry8 3y ago
  Oh come on now that's not fair. No matter how utterly woeful and corrupt tech journalism had been (and horrific is the adjective I'd use) drawing parallels to Jim Kramer is just unseemly.
2muchcoffeeman 3y ago
Thanks for clicking through and TOFTT. Sometimes opinions are wrong in hindsight but they could have been totally logical at the time. But that guy. This is not really worth then.

i386 3y ago

John C. Dvorak is famous for bad takes. But if you’re alluding to Apple Vision being successful because he was an iPhone naysayer, you’re wrong. Reality doesn’t work that way. The jury is still out on VR and it changes little when Apple enters the market at that price point and there’s not a killer problem for it.

mjamesaustin 3y ago
Many analysts and pundits aren't acting like the jury's still out, though. Similarly to the iPhone, many who haven't touched it are reporting it DOA, even as some people are leaving actual demos with intensely positive reviews.
- i386 3y ago
  The iPhone solved an incredibly useful problem because it put the internet in your pocket. No one has a “computer room” at home. What is the problem that the vision solves? I can watch TV on a huge screen in my living room? I already have a large screen in my living room. It’s like stuff I can already easily do but with extra steps and a $3500 US price tag.
  - rado 3y ago
    It's the next step in Apple's consistent strategy to diminish the physical device and enhance its services (computing). iMac: where did the computer go? Vision: there is no TV, but the TV watching experience is great.
  - dharmab 3y ago
    I have both a media room and work computer room. My parents have two computer rooms. My sister want a room when she can get a house. Many of my friends have dedicated rooms for computers.
  - geon 3y ago
    The keynote was certainly weird. It seems they imagine it being used to run regular 2d apps.

chrgy 3y ago

People who are crazy enough that think they can change the world are only the ones who do, so when Steve Jobs has to deal with these non-sense so he never said what he is working on, he focused on shipping great products: "There is no likelihood that Apple can be successful in a business this competitive. Even in the business where it is a clear pioneer, the personal computer, it had to compete with Microsoft and can only sustain a 5% market share."

ttul 3y ago
"Innovation distinguishes between a leader and a follower." - Steve Jobs.
- amelius 3y ago
  He was more a religious leader than anything else.

wenc 3y ago

I love contrarian takes but I don’t love uninformed cynical takes not backed up by data or experience, especially the kind we’ve been seeing the past few days with Apple Vision Pro. (John C Dvorak was also commenting about the unreleased iPhone at the time of writing) Reality is the best teacher and cynics (as opposed to honest critics) are best disregarded and downvoted. When unsure, I remind myself it’s best to reserve judgement and see how things play out and not overgeneralize from my own limited preferences. I tell myself that I am one small speck in the market — i do not represent the market. Because even if cynics turn out to be right, their reasons for being right are random and we learn nothing from them. In financial market for instance it’s not enough to be right (it’s a coin toss) but to have the right reasons for being right.

henrikschroder 3y ago
> but I don’t love uninformed cynical takes not backed up by data or experience Here's some data: When the iPhone was introduced, the global mobile phone market moved over a billion devices a year. The iPhone solved very real problems that people were having, and delivered a device that did everything better than the competition. They put a real browser in the thing, removing the need for WAP and other shitty technologies for consuming content on mobile. They got the form factor and keyboard right. It was expensive, but not 10x more expensive. The iPhone replaced a device that everyone was already willingly carrying around in their pockets, and had been carrying around for over a decade at that point. The global VR headset market moved 20 million devices last year. For most people, VR headsets are a gimmick, a novelty, they bought one, tried it, put it on a shelf. People aren't carrying one around, people aren't using it as their main computing interface, people aren't throwing away their monitors or TVs or gaming consoles. If someone has a VR headset, it's a non-essential plaything. The Apple Vision is ~10x as expensive, in a market that's 1/50th of what the mobile phone market was in 2007, and it's still not solving obvious pain points that are stopping people from getting a VR headset. What problems does it solve? What device does it replace? > When unsure, I remind myself it’s best to reserve judgement and see how things play out and not overgeneralize from my own limited preferences. I tell myself that I am one small speck in the market — i do not represent the market. "God^H^H^HApple moves in mysterious ways, it's best not to question The Lord!" Come on. Apple Vision entering the VR market is fundamentally different from the iPhone entering the mobile phone market, which is why posts like this, trying to make Apple Vision criticism equivalent to iPhone criticism, are completely wrong.

outside1234 3y ago

[flagged]

deleted 3y ago

[deleted]

josu 3y ago

>In fact it's gone so far that it's in the process of consolidation with probably two players dominating everything, Nokia Corp. and Motorola Inc. Even the closing sentence is funny; consolidated into bankruptcy. But hey, at least the article is consistent in getting everything wrong.

pornel 3y ago
He's probably a decent analyst, and intentionally writes the exact opposite for clicks. It's hard to be so wrong 100% of the time.

westurner 3y ago

Competitors at the time included Nokia (Symbian OS), Palm, Windows Mobile, Blackberry, OpenMoko, and Android; but not Apple Newton OS (1987-1998). Cisco IOS (for network gear) was created in the 1980s. It was possible to run Linux on the 1st gen iPod (2001). IIRC the Archos Jukebox also had a 2.5" drive enclosure with audio (and then video on a color LCD) decoding.

russellbeattie 3y ago

I joined Nokia in 2008 about a year after the iPhone launch, and even at that late date, the general consensus was that it wasn't a big deal and/or just an American thing, similar to Japan's i-mode. For those of us who knew what a leap ahead it was - the capacitive touch screen alone changed everything, let alone the usability and functionality like the physical mute switch - it was an uphill battle to convince decision makers how much of a paradigm shift it was. In fact my first boss, the CTO based in Palo Alto where I worked - had a boardroom showdown about it and lost, resigning immediately after. Dvorak wasn't the only one with his head stuck in the sand. A lot of actual industry players just couldn't get it either. Blackberry for example. The most amazing thing to me, honestly, is how quickly Google shifted gears. Android first launched with an emulator that looked exactly like the Nokia E71, Symbian phone with the exact same UX. I posted a video of it on Vimeo back then [1] (it's still there!!!). Within the year they had turned 90° and copied the iPhone in almost every way. That's Silicon Valley flexibility and drive which Nokia and other established mobile companies just couldn't match. 1. https://vimeo.com/384481 https://vimeo.com/384481

brandonmenc 3y ago

Before you get mad, understand that John C. Dvorak does it just for the clicks: https://youtu.be/gOHzHVF-4Mg https://youtu.be/gOHzHVF-4Mg

babbledabbler 3y ago
...and still getting clicks 16 years later. Respect.

holoduke 3y ago

Off topic, but this site has literally 6 advertising blocks in the article and still it asks for a subscription. I am running a multi million user platform, but in no way i need to have such a destructive monetization model. My users would flee. My platform would die quickly.

mistersquid 3y ago

John C. Dvorak is an admitted anti-Apple troll who went all in on click-bait to drive advertising revenue: a pioneer, if you will. [0] Eventually, he pissed of his editorship about 5G advertorial and was fired. [1] [2] [0] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NMQv0j29WHA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NMQv0j29WHA [1] https://web.archive.org/web/20181007013846/https://medium.com/@dvorak/5g-got-me-fired-ce407e584c4a https://web.archive.org/web/20181007013846/https://medium.co... [2] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18157869 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18157869

gtop3 3y ago

> Now compare that effort and overlay the mobile handset business. This is not an emerging business. In fact it's gone so far that it's in the process of consolidation with probably two players dominating everything, Nokia Corp and Motorola I've never seen someone be so right and so wrong at the same time.

m3kw9 3y ago

Imagine seeing his on investment portfolio if he makes dumbazz predictions like that

notJim 3y ago

> On February 19, 1984, in an article in The San Francisco Examiner, Dvorak listed the mouse as one of many reasons Apple Inc.'s Macintosh computer might not be successful: "The Macintosh uses an experimental pointing device called a ‘mouse’. There is no evidence that people want to use these things." Incredible. From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_C._Dvorak https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_C._Dvorak

indymike 3y ago

This one was not John Dvorak's best predictions, and he really should have seen this one coming. The PC was a general purpose device that replaced a whole office full of fairly expensive specialty devices (word processor, fax, teletype, calculator, intercom system, etc...). iPhone was no different. General purpose that could replace a bunch of expensive specialty devices (anyone else have a PDA, phone, music player, camera, GPS, etc...) at a personal level. It was obvious iPhone would succeed and it was equally obvious that Android was running the Wintel play and Apple was playing the Apple play with iPhone.

elpool2 3y ago

In 2007 the question was "can Apple compete with other cell phone makers". The market for cell phones (even smart phones) was already well established, but Dvorak here says the iphone "will be passé within 3 months". What he didn't know is that Apple had made something far better than all the competition. Now, with AR/VR I think the skeptics aren't saying Apple's product won't be good, but that even if it's the best product in the category there's still just not much of a market for it.