4 ms·

Besides the reasons people have already stated on why recent start-ups failed, it seems to me that the world recently has at the same time become more complex

by mihaic 3y ago

Besides the reasons people have already stated on why recent start-ups failed, it seems to me that the world recently has at the same time become more complex AND also simpler: the complexity that each individual company/employee needs to handle has increased, while everyone seems to be engaging in the same types of complexity (every company uses a Slack, GSuite, driving online ads somehow, etc). The economy is tight, requirements from customers are high and there are fewer niches. Any worthwhile product in these conditions (at least in tech) needs a lot of baking time, which actually only a company with pre-existing cash-flow can afford. Unless VC actually develop some patience on returns, I can't see much innovation happening in the next few years.

gareth_untether 3y ago
I suspect there’s going to be a lot of low hanging fruit with AR apps over the next couple of years thanks to Apple.
- jcadam 3y ago
  What's the AR equivalent of a 'fart app'?
  - amelius 3y ago
    Using AI to make everybody around you lose their clothes?
    - deleted 3y ago
      [deleted]
    - thot_experiment 3y ago
      zero percent chance tim apple/zark will allow this, 100% chance the first mass market headset that you actually own will have this
  - masfuerte 3y ago
    X-ray specs.
  - mattbrewsbytes 3y ago
    I think you're onto it... its an AR fart app, lets you put on a $3500 Apple iHead or whatever its called, open the app and point to someone and hear fart noises and see gas clouds appear around them. You get more points if you can hold your laughter in with the cameras watching your face. Eye roll to post your score on social media with clips of all the victims. Multi-player: you and a friend walk around in public wearing your iHead playing together trying to get each other to laugh.
  - lesuorac 3y ago
    Adds a visual fart cloud when the microphone detects a toot.
  - polio 3y ago
    A spatial game where you can drop virtual turds on sidewalks and spread your virtual feces on walls. These are persistent and shared, so you can see the art that other people have wrought.
  - AstralStorm 3y ago
    Snapchat style filter to replace faces with silly things.
epicureanideal 3y ago
> the complexity that each individual company/employee needs to handle has increased Also regulation has massively increased. There are tons of laws you might accidentally break as an early startup without even knowing it, and there are tons of laws that restrict entry into the marketplace through a high legal compliance burden. Imagine trying to create Facebook today. With 3 employees and a few hundred users, what's your anti-CSAM strategy? What are the laws about who is responsible if some ends up on your platform, and how you need to handle it? Ask your $500 per hour lawyer. I'll wait. Imagine trying to create Paypal today. Oh, wait, you need something like a million or more dollars to even operate. https://www.amazon.com/Captured-Economy-Powerful-Themselves-Inequality-ebook/dp/B075KJ1JFQ https://www.amazon.com/Captured-Economy-Powerful-Themselves-...
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
- ivan_gammel 3y ago
  >Imagine trying to create Facebook today. With 3 employees and a few hundred users, what's your anti-CSAM strategy? Two options: launch on unregulated market first or just ignore* compliance until risks for customers are high enough. *do not mention it in written form, just have some paperwork that work is in progress.
  - epicureanideal 3y ago
    > ignore* compliance And what are the consequences if something goes wrong? Does the executive team go to prison? Usually doesn't happen to the well-connected, but what if you're not well-connected? Personally, I wish the laws were rational, and scaled according to the size of a business, rather than relying on the whims of prosecutorial discretion. Random theory: if the law creates many risks even for people who are trying to be moral, risk-averse people will be less likely to start businesses. More businesses will then be started by people who disregard risk, and also selects for a disproportionate number of people with serious psychological issues (although still a small percentage, but higher than the general population). What kind of filter do you have, when people starting certain businesses need to be comfortable rolling the dice on a 1% or 5% chance of going to prison for no intentional reason, and a chance at a pile of cash if that doesn't happen? It sounds like it selects for the same psychology as criminals. > launch on unregulated market first There are fewer and fewer of those all the time, and the ones that remain are in smaller and smaller, less profitable niches. So that technically opportunities exist, but as a practical matter fewer and fewer people are able to ascend the success ladder.

by mihaic 3y ago

gareth_untether 3y ago

I suspect there’s going to be a lot of low hanging fruit with AR apps over the next couple of years thanks to Apple.

jcadam 3y ago
What's the AR equivalent of a 'fart app'?
- amelius 3y ago
  Using AI to make everybody around you lose their clothes?
  - deleted 3y ago
    [deleted]
  - thot_experiment 3y ago
    zero percent chance tim apple/zark will allow this, 100% chance the first mass market headset that you actually own will have this
- masfuerte 3y ago
  X-ray specs.
- mattbrewsbytes 3y ago
  I think you're onto it... its an AR fart app, lets you put on a $3500 Apple iHead or whatever its called, open the app and point to someone and hear fart noises and see gas clouds appear around them. You get more points if you can hold your laughter in with the cameras watching your face. Eye roll to post your score on social media with clips of all the victims. Multi-player: you and a friend walk around in public wearing your iHead playing together trying to get each other to laugh.
- lesuorac 3y ago
  Adds a visual fart cloud when the microphone detects a toot.
- polio 3y ago
  A spatial game where you can drop virtual turds on sidewalks and spread your virtual feces on walls. These are persistent and shared, so you can see the art that other people have wrought.
- AstralStorm 3y ago
  Snapchat style filter to replace faces with silly things.

epicureanideal 3y ago

> the complexity that each individual company/employee needs to handle has increased Also regulation has massively increased. There are tons of laws you might accidentally break as an early startup without even knowing it, and there are tons of laws that restrict entry into the marketplace through a high legal compliance burden. Imagine trying to create Facebook today. With 3 employees and a few hundred users, what's your anti-CSAM strategy? What are the laws about who is responsible if some ends up on your platform, and how you need to handle it? Ask your $500 per hour lawyer. I'll wait. Imagine trying to create Paypal today. Oh, wait, you need something like a million or more dollars to even operate. https://www.amazon.com/Captured-Economy-Powerful-Themselves-Inequality-ebook/dp/B075KJ1JFQ https://www.amazon.com/Captured-Economy-Powerful-Themselves-...

deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
ivan_gammel 3y ago
>Imagine trying to create Facebook today. With 3 employees and a few hundred users, what's your anti-CSAM strategy? Two options: launch on unregulated market first or just ignore* compliance until risks for customers are high enough. *do not mention it in written form, just have some paperwork that work is in progress.
- epicureanideal 3y ago
  > ignore* compliance And what are the consequences if something goes wrong? Does the executive team go to prison? Usually doesn't happen to the well-connected, but what if you're not well-connected? Personally, I wish the laws were rational, and scaled according to the size of a business, rather than relying on the whims of prosecutorial discretion. Random theory: if the law creates many risks even for people who are trying to be moral, risk-averse people will be less likely to start businesses. More businesses will then be started by people who disregard risk, and also selects for a disproportionate number of people with serious psychological issues (although still a small percentage, but higher than the general population). What kind of filter do you have, when people starting certain businesses need to be comfortable rolling the dice on a 1% or 5% chance of going to prison for no intentional reason, and a chance at a pile of cash if that doesn't happen? It sounds like it selects for the same psychology as criminals. > launch on unregulated market first There are fewer and fewer of those all the time, and the ones that remain are in smaller and smaller, less profitable niches. So that technically opportunities exist, but as a practical matter fewer and fewer people are able to ascend the success ladder.