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Land/space are limited. I live where most on HN would consider very rural - the closest town is 600 people and a town of 20,000 is about 30 minutes from me. Ev
by Auracle 3y ago
Land/space are limited. I live where most on HN would consider very rural - the closest town is 600 people and a town of 20,000 is about 30 minutes from me.
Even when I was buying a home back in 2011 there were basically no good plots of land for sale. What was there was about $10,000 an acre. I eventually got my house for $180,000 and it’s on 15 acres, meaning my 3,000 square foot house was basically only $30,000 when you account for the land price.
Obviously building vertically helps in cities, but that comes with its own costs as well.
It’s supply and demand and supply is limited by the surface area of the earth. In the short term countries could absolutely help themselves by limiting immigration. Population growth has outpaced new housing for the last 20 years in the US: https://usafacts.org/articles/population-growth-has-outpaced-home-construction-for-20-years/ https://usafacts.org/articles/population-growth-has-outpaced...
There were 2.7 million illegal border crossings in FY 2022: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna53517 https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna53517
1.6 million housing units were built in 2021: https://www.builderonline.com/data-analysis/housing-activity-in-2021-ends-on-strong-note_o#:~:text=An%20estimated%201%2C595%2C100%20housing%20units,of%20Housing%20and%20Urban%20Development https://www.builderonline.com/data-analysis/housing-activity....
Canada built 321,000 units of housing in 2021 but is in pace to have over 500,000 immigrants this year.
It’s unsustainable and people think you’re a racist for bringing it up so it never gets talked about.
- johnklos 3y agoIt's not racist for bringing it up - it's racist for blaming immigrants when it's the wealthy buying up and hoarding land and property, coupled with an out of control healthcare system, stagnant wages while corporate profits are huge, and lobbyists keeping politicians from meaningfully changing anything. I couldn't take you seriously, anyway. 2.7 million illegal border crossings have zero to do with 1.6 million housing units, but you're trying to imply that each of those illegal border crossings took a housing unit or something like that. Perhaps people on Facebook are that dumb.
- somewhat_drunk 3y ago>2.7 million illegal border crossings have zero to do with 1.6 million housing units Only if you assume all 2.7 million people are now homeless. Price is a function of supply and demand. Obviously, increasing the number of people within a system without commensurately increasing housing will result in upward pressure on housing prices. You could argue that the system-wide effect is minimal, but you would need data to do that, which you haven't provided.
- johnklos 3y ago[flagged]
- mech987987 3y agoYou two are talking past eachother. You did not address his argument.
- idopmstuff 3y ago> The issue is that the person to whom I responded was trying to imply that the number of illegal border crossings being larger than the number of new housing units is somehow a gotcha. It's not. It's not a "gotcha" - it's a significant amount of additional demand, which, given how supply and demand work, drives up prices. > You fail basic common sense, too. Does every household have one person? How many people per household affects the degree of the problem, but it doesn't mean the problem doesn't exist. If you have 2.7m people coming in and you assume that for this population you average five people to a household, that's still roughly 1/3 of the new housing units being generated that are needed to house them. That's an enormous increase in demand, which pushes housing costs up. To be clear, I think this is a problem of too little housing supply more than too much immigration (though I do oppose illegal immigration and have a strong preference for it ceasing entirely), but either way the problems suggested by the post that you're replying to are very clearly real.
- pydry 3y ago>Obviously, increasing the number of people within a system without commensurately increasing housing will result in upward pressure on housing prices. That was the explicit intent of prop 13. Triggering the NIMBYtastrophe and privatizing commensurate increases in rents and land values was an entirely deliberate and cynical wealth grab that drove millions into poverty in California. I get that we're supposed to be more angry at immigrants than Howard Jarvis and his friends though. Just as we're supposed to be upset at "AI taking jobs" rather than deliberate trade policy. Scapegoats have gotta goat.
- VoodooJuJu 3y agoJust know that the people endorsing mass importation of immigrants are the same ones hoarding property. They benefit directly from the cheap labor (even child-cheap labor [1]), from the depressed wages, and indirectly from the enlarged voter base of their political friends. When you deflect the conversation towards racism and related name-calling, you're acting as an agent on behalf of the lords, doing exactly what they want you to do [2]: flinging mud at other peasants, rather than at the lords themselves. I think one of the best ways to avoid being agentized by the elite class is to just be more skeptical in general, especially when you encounter emotional argumentation. Accusations of racism in particular is a huge red flag. This tactic is by design intended to shut down a discussion rather than engage with it. [1] https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2023/06/12/child-labor-is-on-the-rise https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2023/06/12/child-labor-is... [2] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28415546 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28415546 - It is far better for upper class to ensure that people discuss and focus on issues like gender and skin colour than the class differences. Hence, they ensured that this is the issue plebs would hear all over on the media and shift their attention from class divides to gender and skin colour.
- colpabar 3y ago> It's not racist for bringing it up - it's racist for blaming immigrants when it's the wealthy buying up and hoarding land and property Is it racist to blame the wealthy buying up and hoarding land and property and funding the politicians that let them do it, while also pushing for more immigration? I don't really think the comment was blaming immigrants, it was blaming immigration, and it's honestly really hard for me to wrap my head around the idea that adding more people to a place that already doesn't have enough housing for people won't make the problem worse.
- Auracle 3y agoI'm not "blaming immigrants." That's exactly the attitude I'm talking about when I say you're called racist. I'm blaming our governments for allowing and/or encouraging it. It's completely insane to open the floodgates when housing prices are through the roof. I don't understand how you could think millions of people coming over here couldn't affect the supply side of supply and demand, but considering your list of grievances I think it's pretty clear where you lie on the political spectrum and couldn't possibly blame immigration for anything. Point me towards where people are "hoarding" property. Rental units don't count as they still contribute to the housing supply. Wages have also been depressed for a long time by immigrant labor, from illegal immigration to H1Bs. Healthcare costs are, again, increased by (illegal) immigration. Illegal immigrants can go to the ER, get treated for free, and we're all stuck with the costs. None of these are the only causes, but it's a contributing factor and one side of the political spectrum won't acknowledge it and the other pretends to while still allowing it for big businesses' sake.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- timcavel 3y ago[dead]
- Matheus28 3y agoBlaming immigration on how much we aren’t building is a mental gymnastic I haven’t seen before. Besides, those immigrants are the ones building those houses.
- henry2023 3y agoNot only they build those houses. They don't get to own them. Hard to imagine an undocumented immigrant having spare 250k cash for a downpayment. OP comment is a joke.
- mantas 3y agoLegal immigrants and illegal migrants have to live somewhere too. Even if they don't have $$$, they still put pressure on the system from the bottom. And it bubbles up throughout the real estate pyramid.
- Auracle 3y agoI guess they all just live in the woods then. News to me. People taking up rental units still take up supply. If landlords are having a hard time renting out their units, they aren't going to increase their prices.
- bheadmaster 3y agoIf immigration is an order of magnitude higher than natality, it's fair to say it's a relevant factor. I don't think that's shifting blame, only pointing out that without immigration, there might be more homes built than new people born.
- ralfd 3y agoThat is not what the parent said and you put words in his mouth. Immigration is not the reason too few housing is build, but it is the reason demand outstrips the limited capacity to build more. The opposite is for example happening in Japan which has with a stagnant/declining population a relaxed housing market.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- codedokode 3y ago> supply is limited by the surface area of the earth But US is not a small country, how can there be not enough land?
- occamrazor 3y agoThere is plenty of land, but not where most people want to live.
- Auracle 3y agoIt's all taken at this point in many areas. My parents could afford a 60 acre lot (again, in a rural area) on a construction worker and school bus driver's salary. My wife is an accountant and I'm a programmer/photographer and the best we could afford is worse house on a lot 1/4 the size. There literally aren't lots that size around anymore. Usually when one goes up for sale a developer will buy it. Sure, there's farmland in the area - but the farmers are using that.
- itake 3y agoDo you think two working parents factors into this? My coworker's families have annual income over $1m/yr, b/c both mom and dad work. In previous generations, with only one parent working, it is almost impossible to compete.
- vineyardmike 3y agoThis is actually well documented. There has been a notable increase in prices couples with an increase in women working (instead of staying home). It’s not a 1:1 increase of price to household income, but it’s well documented, and geographically correlated to rate of double-income households.
- toomuchtodo 3y agohttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Two-Income_Trap https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Two-Income_Trap
- itake 3y agoThe wiki summary suggest rising costs causes both parents to work, but my postulation is the opposite: two family working causes rising costs: Women wanting to work has caused families to have more disposable income, causing inflation for everyone.
- tqi 3y ago> There were 2.7 million illegal border crossings in FY 2022: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna53517 https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna53517 > It’s unsustainable and people think you’re a racist for bringing it up so it never gets talked about. Not to mention 3.7M live births in the US last year - and I know for a fact not a single one of those freeloaders has a job.
- tonymillion 3y agoDon’t forget about all those lazy old people who aren’t contributing and just taking up space… usually too much space (an old couple in a 3 bedroom house)
- lph 3y ago...and the same folks who rail against immigration can often be found lamenting the low national birth rate. It makes one suspect their complaint isn't with the rate of population growth, but with its hue.
- ToDougie 3y agowow this really made me think
- Auracle 3y agoFirst off, immigrants tend to have more children. Second, if we're already at a deficit how does it make sense to throw more fuel on the fire?
- dragonwriter 3y ago> First off, immigrants tend to have more children First, undocumented migrants intercepted at the border by CBP (which is what your source counts) are particularly unlikely to have more children in the United States. Second, the CBP report your source is based on counts encounters, not people, and notes “The large number of expulsions during the pandemic has contributed to a higher-than-usual number of migrants making multiple border crossing attempts, which means that total encounters somewhat overstate the number of unique individuals arriving at the border.”
- dukeyukey 3y ago> Canada built 321,000 units of housing in 2021 but is in pace to have over 500,000 immigrants this year. That sounds about right? Most housing units will house 2-3 people, and a lot will house quite a few more. Obv this excludes natural population growth, but Canada's fertility rate is lower than most of Europe, and one of the lowest in the Western world, so that's probably not a problem.
- Auracle 3y agoClearly it's not about right. If supply and demand stay the same, prices should stay the same apart from inflation.
- dukeyukey 3y agoThe pandemic warped things a bit, but Canadian house prices have been tumbling down over the last year or so. Interest rates are probably a big part of that, but the UK is raising at roughly the same rates and prices aren't falling nearly as fast.
- 3pt14159 3y ago> but that comes with its own costs as well. So does having a large plot of land to every single driver on the road driving past you. Even if it doesn't really show up in a municipal budget or in a mortgage payment, it's still very expensive to drive past a farm that is wide and not deep, but most people, most of the time don't want deep lots for aesthetic reasons, and even if you make deep lots taxi-cab geometry will get you anyway if the whole area is residential land anyway. When it comes to residential land that is outside of environmentally protected zones, my position is simple. Allow land owners to build two or three houses. One primary one (6 bedrooms, say) and up to two smaller ones (2 bedrooms each) or one smaller one and one general use building (a workshop or many car garage). That way the frontage is used, we get housing stock for poorer families and we intermix ages and income levels in a way that is socially beneficial, since it's a lot harder to turn a blind eye to the problems of the lower-middle class if they're literally living on the same property that you own. Plus it gives a way (for families that want it) for grandparents to live on the same land as their grandchildren without always being in the hair of their kids. Super win-win if both parents work and can rely on the grandparents for after-school hours. Plus it makes extended family gatherings more feasible as enough of a chunk of the family is nearby in the first place.
- thatfrenchguy 3y ago> It’s unsustainable and people think you’re a racist for bringing it up so it never gets talked about. Yeah what's unsustainable is you living on 15 acres, we can build housing for everyone. > Canada built 321,000 units of housing in 2021 but is in pace to have over 500,000 immigrants this year. Given, unlike you, they need to be considered productive by the government to move to Canada, why would they not be allowed to be here?
- Auracle 3y ago> Yeah what's unsustainable is you living on 15 acres, we can build housing for everyone. Heaven forbid I live on 1/4 of the land that my parents had even though I have a far greater income. I guess I shouldn't have bought the place? Or I should somehow subdivide the lot even though it's quite narrow and hilly/forested? Fuck nature, I guess. > Given, unlike you, they need to be considered productive by the government to move to Canada, why would they not be allowed to be here? That was literally the point of my post, but because you didn't seem to get it: because that amount might be so high as to drive housing costs further up when people are already struggling to rent/buy a home. A government should serve its own people, first and foremost. If that means immigration helps them (as it absolutely can) - great! If it means that too much immigration instead hurts their citizens, it should be dialed back.
- thatfrenchguy 3y ago> It’s unsustainable and people think you’re a racist for bringing it up so it never gets talked about. Yeah what's unsustainable for the planet is you living on 15 acres in a 3000 sqft detached house, we can build housing for everyone. > Canada built 321,000 units of housing in 2021 but is in pace to have over 500,000 immigrants this year. Given, unlike you, they need to be considered productive by the government to move to Canada, why would they not be allowed to be here?
- Auracle 3y agoThere are plenty of plots of land that are turned into dense developments in the area. Maybe someday someone will buy up my property along with my neighbors and do just that - it happened down the road not too long ago. Not everywhere should be a suburban hellscape. For what it's worth my parent's lot where I grew up was 60 acres. Now there's no way you'd be able to buy something like that unless you were super patient and had ridiculous sums of money for the area. Again, there's less land for how many people there are. What should I do? Plop more houses on my lot just to increase the housing supply?
- api 3y agoIt's either racist or just clueless to blame immigrants when the housing units being built are not sufficient for domestic population growth. There is no way to make housing affordable without building a lot more of it, and most American cities could become significantly more dense without nearing the density of cities in Asia. There is no housing availability crisis in rural and small town America, though obviously everyone can't have 15 acres. There are small towns across the US that would love some population growth and have plenty of housing available. The problem is that jobs are concentrated in cities with housing shortages.
- Auracle 3y agoAgain, I'm not blaming immigrants. I'm blaming immigration policy. There's a difference. And yes, there is a way to make housing more affordable without building more of it. That's the entire point of my post. Supply and demand has two sides. There is absolutely a housing price crisis in at least some of rural America. My wife's brother has been looking for a house for years but everything he can find in his price range as a teacher (which are paid OK in MN) is a complete dump. This is in town, which in our area means it's the cheapest housing.