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Two-thirds of North America at risk of energy shortages during extreme demand [pdf]
- toomuchtodo 3y agoTLDR more batteries (to firm renewables), renewables (to overproduce), and streamline ISO interconnect processes https://www.utilitydive.com/news/grid-interconnection-queue-berkeley-lab-lbnl-watt-coalition-wind-solar-renewables/647287/ https://www.utilitydive.com/news/grid-interconnection-queue-... > The total capacity of energy projects in U.S. interconnection queues grew 40% year-over-year in 2022, with more than 1,350 GW of generation and 680 GW of storage waiting for approval to connect, according to a new report from the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. https://emp.lbl.gov/sites/default/files/queued_up_2022_04-06-2023.pdf https://emp.lbl.gov/sites/default/files/queued_up_2022_04-06... https://electrek.co/2023/04/19/tesla-reports-massive-increase-energy-storage-deployment-thanks-megafactory/ https://electrek.co/2023/04/19/tesla-reports-massive-increas...
- 0cf8612b2e1e 3y agoFrom my quick skim of the site, it was unclear to me the timing of the queue. Do projects sit in there for 90 days or three years before approval? Once approved, the project still has to be built, correct? Is there a resource that lists plants which are actively expanding? That seems like a more useful short term metric to understand new capacity, because items in the queue may never be constructed.
- Wohlf 3y agoIt's both, a small project with grid capacity nearby can be approved quickly but larger projects without nearby capacity can take years to get resolved.
- snarf21 3y agoWhile listening to a recent NPR podcast about green energy, the claimed that there were projects proposed for green energy that in sum would be larger than todays complete US generation from all sources. The main problems are around interconnect and upgrading infrastructure. Lines and transformers are built to a certain capacity and connecting all these new projects could cause failures and blackouts. BEFORE you can even get approved, there has (historically) been a multi-year study required to validate everything. They are now doing them in groups of projects of 50 or more. However, then the estimates are for what would be needed for ALL 50 projects which is clearly overkill as they won't all pan out. There is money in the Inflation Reduction Act to help upgrade the infrastructure and expedite the process but it is a trickle when we need more. The other approach is to just hook things up and wait until something breaks. Then the supplier would have to limit their capacity until they paid for increased carrying capacity. All said, this seems to indicate that infrastructure is the main bottleneck.
- PopAlongKid 3y agoContrary to this report, I've seen multiple predictions[0] that due to a generous amount of hydro generation available after the winter storms, California should have adequate supply this summer. [0]https://www.publicpower.org/periodical/article/eia-forecasts-72-rise-hydropower-generation-california https://www.publicpower.org/periodical/article/eia-forecasts... "An abundance of hydro also means grid operators can be a bit less reliant on electricity from out-of-state sources. "[1] [1]https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2023-01-18/california-rain-snow-could-boost-hydropower-good-news-for-power-grid https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2023-01-18/california...
- MortimerDukePhD 3y agoIs this the same California that is perpetually plagued by drought?
- cronix 3y agoThey don't really have anything to do with each other other than both dealing with "power." Your report is talking about total capacity/generation due to having average stock of hydro and the linked report is talking about usage during "extreme demand" periods. It doesn't matter how much generating capacity you have if you can't transmit all of it to where it's needed when all AC's are on full blast and everyone is charging their cars and everyone is cooking on electric stoves, or need to totally cut it off to large areas to prevent forest/wild fires during these extreme demand periods, which is when it's hottest. Blackouts/brownouts will still continue, and even be planned for, even with excess hydro. Infrastructure/delivery goes way beyond just raw generation.
- jyu 3y agoSolar + battery wall is looking better and better.
- throwbadubadu 3y agoFor some it's the cause of all the troubles, for others a solution; ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
- jyu 3y agoThe problem is unreliable access to power. The same solution solves many problems: monies.
- ok_dad 3y agoDon’t get the Tesla power wall, it’s more locked down than anything else in the market. Get a system you control with an API you can access, not proprietary crap. Like locked down OSes and hardware, locked down distributed energy resources will be the next place where you’ll lose your access to your devices due to corporate greed. The data and API access for DERs are like GOLD today. If you don’t control them, someone else will, and poorly. No company I’ve seen today is competent enough to scale to what’s going to be needed in the future. They’re all focused on cloud stuff, but at the scale energy works at and the compute necessary to efficiently use future energy systems, we’re going to need to switch to a distributed system on the edge, at the generation and load sites. Edit: I’m in HN slow mode for some reason, likely that the fascists aren’t my fan today and have been flagging all my comments, so here’s my reply: Sorry, no, but I mostly deal with commercial products. I know of the power wall only because my friend got them and they kinda suck. Tesla sometimes fucks up control, too, draining the battery for their own use to make money on their VPP. I suggest asking directly to the sales people if you will have full, free access to your telemetry in bulk to download and that you have API access to the whole system. Those are the two most important factors.
- bqmjjx0kac 3y agoDo you have any recommendations?
- 99_00 3y agoInstead of investing in nuclear we wasted decades investing in solar and wind. Well, it wasn't a waste for the companies and countries who profited and their lobbyists.
- mordae 3y agoExtreme heat events tend to go hand in hand with great solar yields. So actually building some solar power plants would be a sensible thing to do. But that would probably need some involvement from public sector and US public sector has been systematically dismantled since Reagan at least. I am not saying it's not happening elsewhere, but I sure am glad that it's not going to be me and my family who's gonna eventually reclaim the public sector at the cost of watering the democracy tree. Sorry for the irony. Have a nice day from EU.
- quickthrower2 3y agoHow does that work out? If it is a clear sunny day, how does more heat cause more electricity production in a given panel. Or does warming give us more cloudfree days?
- shagie 3y agohttps://www.bostonsolar.us/solar-blog-resource-center/blog/how-do-temperature-and-shade-affect-solar-panel-efficiency/ https://www.bostonsolar.us/solar-blog-resource-center/blog/h... > Many of our customers in Massachusetts want to know exactly how changes in heat can affect solar panel performance. Solar panels are generally tested at about 77°F and are rated to perform at peak efficiency between 59°F and 95°F. However, solar panels may get as hot as 149°F during the summer. When the surface temperature of your solar panels gets this high, solar panel efficiency can decline somewhat. > ... > For example, the temperature coefficient of LG NeON® 2 solar panels is -0.38% per one degree Celsius. This means that for every one degree Celsius above 25°C, the maximum efficiency of an LG NeON® 2 solar panel will decrease by 0.38%. Conversely, for every one degree Celsius below 25°C, the maximum efficiency of that solar panel will increase by 0.38%. (Yes — cooler, sunny weather is best for your solar panels and can help offset any decreased efficiency in the summer.) --- https://greentumble.com/effect-of-temperature-on-solar-panel-efficiency https://greentumble.com/effect-of-temperature-on-solar-panel... > According to the manufacture standards, 25 °C or 77 °F temperature indicates the peak of the optimum temperature range of photovoltaic solar panels. It is when solar photovoltaic cells are able to absorb sunlight with maximum efficiency and when we can expect them to perform the best. > ... > For example, if your solar panels have a coefficient of minus 0.4 percent, their output on hot days will drop nearly twice that much compared to the output of a panel with a coefficient of only minus 0.2 percent per one degree Celsius. > White or light-colored roofing also helps to lower the temperature around your panels, since these colors reflect sunlight more and do not get heated up like dark roofing. > While above mentioned points involve passive cooling methods, some people opt even for active cooling systems. --- Extreme heat days, while they tend to be sunny often have poorer performance for solar while the demand for power (AC) goes up.
- mordae 3y agoSounds nice. Rich ones will get panels and batteries, poor ones... Well, the usual. It's a nice symptom of investments to the public infrastructure lagging.
- jillesvangurp 3y agoThey'll get batteries and solar too eventually. Prices of these things will come down over time. And grids will adapt to incentivize people to have them as that is cheaper than building a lot of new plants and infrastructure. Virtual plants are much cheaper for them and can be used to balance the grid.
- londons_explore 3y agoAnd yet, me with my tiny gasoline generator has absolutely no incentive to use it at times of peak demand. When any market gives no incentive for most participants to resolve any supply/demand imbalance, then shortages are sure to happen from time to time. Electricity isn't even a market where people can 'panic buy' like toilet paper.
- isoprophlex 3y agoI have a dynamic pricing contract, prices are generally around or slightly below fixed market rates, but when it's sunny or windy I get power for free, or better. Got paid to charge my car today. I like it, because it makes me more mindful of the e-grid (also free power) So, it is possible to have some force changing consumer behavior. It all depends on sane legislation, allowing a system like this to exist.
- the_third_wave 3y agoWe have a dynamic (hourly rates) contract as well and well and we sometimes see negative electricity prices. This does not mean electricity ends up being free since there is also the transmission charge, energy tax, renewable energy surcharge and value added tax on all of these to pay. Do you actually get paid to use power, i.e. do you not have to pay any of the mentioned charges?
- 0cf8612b2e1e 3y agoIf they do get 100% free, this continually reraises a question of mine: outside of crypto mining, is there anything a consumer can do to capture benefit from free electricity? Low efficiency synthesis of ethanol, hydrogen, carbon capture, desalination, precious mineral enrichment from seawater? With net metering rates tanking, I would love to see some way to productively capture spare juice. The duck curve is not going anywhere.
- londons_explore 3y agoIf in a cold climate, heat the earth under your house. Then, that earth slowly gives its heat back to you over the coming months (soil is quite a poor thermal conductor, so the heat hangs around underground for a really long time) Obscenely powerful heaters are rather cheap. Assuming prices only go negative pretty rarely, you really want 100 kilowatts or more of heaters under your house to get as much free power as possible.
- sb057 3y agoStrictly speaking, 100% of any energy network faces shortages during extreme demand.
- rossdavidh 3y agoI was thinking something similar. You're saying 1/3 of North America is at no risk of energy shortage even during extreme demand? I find that hard to believe.
- more_corn 3y agoIf only there were a way for every home and business to generate electricity locally as a sort of decentralized power grid, like by putting some sort of low-carbon powerplant on their roof.
- rr808 3y agoHow is that going to help heat my house in my cold snowy Winters?
- HyperSane 3y agoHow did decentralization become such a religion?
- ThatPlayer 3y agoAnd then what if we built it bigger for better economy of scale by hooking up all the generators and all the consumers in an area together? We could share different methods of generation! Maybe someone has a hydro generator instead of completely relying on solar that stops working when it gets dark. We could have a bigger, more efficient gas generator instead of multiple smaller individual gas generators.
- mortify 3y agoSure. I can do that now. The math works out so that I'll break even on the expense in 25 years even when I include government incentives... right about the end of life for the solar cells. If I lived closer to the equator, my break even point would be sooner, but right now for many people it's a huge up-front outlay for zero benefit.
- crooked-v 3y agoThe link doesn't mention it, but ERCOT (the Texas grid) is the one most at risk here, because state law specifically forbids linking it to other regional power grids so that the state can avoid federal laws regulating utility companies. The other grids are all connected to their neighbors, which can help compensate for issues by transferring power between them.
- MichaelBurge 3y agoConnecting to a larger system seems like it would reduce your risk on average, but increase systemic risk. Perhaps a coordinated terrorist attack would cause a power outage across the entire country except Texas, making it more appealing?
- coliveira 3y agoFollowing this logic they should disconnect each municipality, so if one goes dow the rest can continue operating...
- andrewnicolalde 3y agoIf that were feasible and comparably efficient (which I doubt), then yes, I imagine they ought to!
- rapjr9 3y agoThis is what microgrids are: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microgrid https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microgrid If solar on rooftops (with batteries or EV connections) became really widespread in the US it may make some sense to be able to isolate communities from the rest of the grid to localize failures. Utilities would probably hate it but it could be really resistant to disruption.
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- cogman10 3y ago
- sacnoradhq 3y agoI'm glad ERCOT added 4 GW of renewable generation capacity, but that doesn't translate into regional or localized energy reserves. Distributed energy storage relieves transmission grid capacity. Without enough grid capacity, consumption can't be fulfilled even with infinite generation capacity. The challenge is in deploying safe and efficient distributed energy storage, also realizing there are domestic terrorists who aren't above shooting holes in transformer fins.
- ronnier 3y agoGo off grid now while you can to get grandfathered in before they make it illegal to go off grid. When the people with money go off grid and stop paying in and the grid starts to collapse from lack of funds… expect laws forcing you to pay back in regardless. Just a baseless conspiracy theory :-)
- pat2man 3y agoIf you go off grid but still have a grid connection that you can use any time you want, you should still pay in. All the transition equipment is still needed. Full off grid should probably not have to pay anything. But if something breaks you are on your own.
- Scoundreller 3y agoI'm in a multi-residential building, and like 50-75% of my bill is what I have to pay whether I use anything or not. (Helps that it's well insulated and that hot water is central. hvac is not, but due to good insulation, hardly gets used except in summer)
- HyperSane 3y agoI'm in the same boat. Since I like it cooler than my neighbors do in the winter I almost never need to actually use the heater.
- flagrant_taco 3y ago100%, I'm in the process of taking a tiny house fully off grid and part of that is planning my own backups. I'd never expect the power company to help if/when I cancel my service completely.
- HyperSane 3y ago" I'm in the process of taking a tiny house fully off grid" Why?
- nahnahg 3y ago[dead]
- throwawaaarrgh 3y agoIt's all privately owned. Nothing we can do about it.
- rgmerk 3y agoInteresting statistic: the American power grid has, on average, 475 minutes of outage time annually. The German grid has 12.7 minutes. Rather than rich people spending squillions on propane generators, how about spending less and fixing your damn grid? https://www.construction-physics.com/p/the-birth-of-the-grid https://www.construction-physics.com/p/the-birth-of-the-grid
- paulcole 3y agoI wonder how the numbers compare if you look at a chunk of 4% of the US w/ no natural disasters? Ah, if you click through to the actual stat you’ll see that without “Major Events” (whatever those are), the US goes down to 125 minutes per year.
- trobertson 3y agoWhich is still a full order of magnitude worse than the German numbers. Blaming nature for our shit infrastructure is only going to harm ourselves.
- rgmerk 3y agoThis. I’d also point out that Germany has its share of wild weather, including floods and storms. And yet they keep their grid up a lot more reliably than the US.
- rcme 3y agoGermany has some floods, but nothing like a hurricane or tornado. I only spent 2 years in Germany, but even a typical summer thunderstorm in the NE US seemed worse than in Germany.
- paulcole 3y agoIf Japan had 1.2 minutes of outages a year would you say Germany had shit infrastructure? No because 12 minutes is great and not really worth improving on. 2 hours per year without power per year is probably fine. A year is a long time.
- gtani 3y agoRelevant but only one set of constraints among many: after an epic winter snowfall, water level has hit 2 years ago at Lake Powell and only last year's level at Mead... https://powell.uslakes.info/Level/ https://powell.uslakes.info/Level/ https://mead.uslakes.info/Level/ https://mead.uslakes.info/Level/