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For background, "geohot", is George Hotz, who's a known hacker / tech personality[0] This project fits the pattern of his previous projects: he gets excited ab
by thesausageking 3y ago
For background, "geohot", is George Hotz, who's a known hacker / tech personality[0]
This project fits the pattern of his previous projects: he gets excited about the currently hot thing in tech, makes his own knockoff version, generates a ton of buzz in the tech press for it, and then it fizzles out because he doesn't have the resources or attention span to actually make something at that scale.
In 2016, Tesla and self-driving cars led to his comma one project ("I could build a better vision system than Tesla autopilot in 3 months"). In 2020, Ethereum got hot and so he created "cheapETH". In 2022 it was Elon's Twitter, which led him to "fixing Twitter search". And in 2023 it's NVIDIA.
I'd love to see an alternative to CUDA / NVIDIA so I hope this one breaks the pattern, but I'd be very, very careful before giving him a deposit.
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Hotz https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Hotz
- normaldist 3y agoComma didn't fizzle out. https://twitter.com/comma_ai/status/1578517666632900608 https://twitter.com/comma_ai/status/1578517666632900608
- thesausageking 3y agoThey're slowing burning through their VC money trying to make a business out of the hobbyist market while Cruise and Waymo have fully autonomous cars deployed in SF and are scaling up.
- Retric 3y agoThe scale of investment is wildly different. $5.57M in actual revenue vs $18.1M raised isn’t that far from a viable product and positive ROI for their investors. Cruse and Waymo have invested billions, they need 10’s of billions in annual sales or their project is a failure.
- birken 3y agoAs a very happy user of Comma, I think it is reasonable to say the company is going to fail, but that ignores that the product they created is still awesome. Comma is light years better than any built-in driving assist in any non-Tesla car. And it's comparable to Tesla for far less money. The reason the company might fail is because their main thesis, being that car manufacturers would just license the self driving tech to somebody else (like Comma), never came about. Car manufacturers are just too conservative. It was a perfectly reasonable bet to make though. Unfortunately they ended up in the business of selling hardware and giving away software for free when they wanted to be in the business of selling software.
- porphyra 3y agoCar manufacturers ended up using Mobileye though...
- vippy 3y agoThat wasn't precisely by choice though, IIRC.
- snovv_crash 3y agoComma didn't exist yet.
- porphyra 3y agoNo, they are recently choosing to go with Mobileye too. For example: Porsche announces collaboration with Mobileye from a couple of weeks ago: https://newsroom.porsche.com/en/2023/company/porsche-mobileye-collaboration-automated-driver-assistance-functions-32250.html https://newsroom.porsche.com/en/2023/company/porsche-mobiley...
- justapassenger 3y ago> As a very happy user of Comma, I think it is reasonable to say the company is going to fail, but that ignores that the product they created is still awesome. Comma is light years better than any built-in driving assist in any non-Tesla car. And it's comparable to Tesla for far less money. I'm Comma user in one of my cars as well, and I do like it. But, when was last time you tried built-in driving assist in a Tesla-priced car? Tesla's driver assist is nothing special nowadays.
- sammywater 3y agoSo what? Dont the vast majority of companies that take VC funds.. burn through it before generating profit? George is courageous, inspiring, and highly intelligent. He stands for what he believes in. He stands up for himself and his beliefs, and talks back to powerful people. How many tries did it take to invent scalable electricity, or the light bulb? George Hotz is frikkin awesome
- bagavi 3y agoWaymo and Cruise have burnt through money like no one else. They want to make their own cars, thier own Ai chips/lidar, their own self driving tech. Delusional at best, malicious at worst. They made a hard SW problem into hard HW+SW problem. They are zombies unless some magic happens in the world of nn (which is not unlikely tbh) Whereas comma is taking the right approach of a nimble team, iterate fast and ship a working product (even if not L4-5), get cash flow, next milestone.
- Retric 3y agoCruise is part of GM, so saying they are going to make their own cars is hardly delusional.
- havercosine 3y agoI don't mind bit of skepticism. But let's see: Comma is actually used by people in their cars to achieve some degree of self driving. He actually shipped something that works! The idea is ambitious as well as commercially interesting: car manufacturers don't reinvent wheel for every component but rely on OEMs to help them out. This was a similar bet. That way it is wildly more successful than hundreds of other undifferentiated yet another social/lending/flavour of the season apps. It takes guts to put out such bold bets in writing. We've seen many (senior!) tech people sneer at George's at times naive optimism. I actually find the "how hard could be" attitude refreshing against "no no it is complicated you can't do that" gatekeeping. Because otherwise we will end up using big-tech for lack of alternative. It is not the critic who counts and all that..
- rvz 3y ago> Cruise and Waymo have fully autonomous cars deployed in SF and are scaling up. Is that it? SF only? After billions invested? There is a laundry list of those that tried and failed especially with burning an insurmountable amount of VC money even with billions of their own money. Lyft: Scrapped and sold their self-driving project. [0] Uber: Scrapped their robot-taxi project and sold it off. [1] Zoox: Once valued at $3BN, acquired by Amazon for $1BN after nearly going bankrupt and is still using specialised cars for self driving only in SF. [2] Cruise: Acquired by GM and still using specialised cars for self driving in SF [3] Drive.ai: Ran out of money and almost bankrupt and acquired by Apple. [4] No where to be found on the roads. Waymo: Same situation as Cruise, but Google keeping them alive. Comma has lasted longer than these over-valued companies and is already in lots of consumer grade vehicles beyond SF today and not in specialised cars and taxis unlike Cruise and Waymo who are still stuck in SF [5]. [0] https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/04/26/business/stock-market-today https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/04/26/business/stock-marke... [1] https://www.npr.org/2020/12/08/944337751/uber-sells-its-autonomous-vehicle-research-division https://www.npr.org/2020/12/08/944337751/uber-sells-its-auto... [2] https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/26/amazon-buys-self-driving-technology-company-zoox.html https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/26/amazon-buys-self-driving-tec... [3] https://fortune.com/2016/03/11/gm-buying-self-driving-tech-startup-for-more-than-1-billion/ https://fortune.com/2016/03/11/gm-buying-self-driving-tech-s... [4] https://techcrunch.com/2019/06/25/self-driving-startup-drive-ai-is-closing-down/ https://techcrunch.com/2019/06/25/self-driving-startup-drive... [5] https://techcrunch.com/2023/05/18/cruise-waymo-near-approval-to-charge-for-24-7-robotaxis-in-san-francisco/ https://techcrunch.com/2023/05/18/cruise-waymo-near-approval...
- pankajdoharey 3y agoComma's hypothesis could be correct and its licensing is also very flexible, if they do succeed in making an android equivalent of SDC(self driving), they will be used by all these car manufacturers eventually.
- chpatrick 3y agoAnyone can call a Waymo robo-taxi right now in Phoenix and it works really well. It's a modified electric Jaguar. That's a pretty big difference from the others.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- YOJ 3y agoare you trolling? comma is the only profitable company you mentioned while its the opposite for way and cruise, both of which are not scalable.
- 93po 3y ago> both of which are not scalable which is the critical element everyone is in denial about, even to the point of saying Tesla has a long way to catch up.
- YOJ 3y agothere are just 3 possible options: 1. They are living in a sf USA big city centric bubble. 2. They are very easily influenced by marketing. 3. They are just trolling. Comma is a product you can buy all code is opensource. All others is just a service, where people could theoretically just be diving remote and they sell it as self driving.
- 93po 3y ago4. they're in the "everything Elon is evil" bubble and refuse to entertain any challenges to this belief
- stoniejohnson 3y agoYou're creating a false narrative man. Him creating tinygrad makes sense given he created a self-driving car company which leverages deep learning (and now uses tinygrad in prod, go figure). It's not like he decided to hop from self-driving cars to 'AI' because fads changed.
- sangnoir 3y agoThe same self-driving company he left? His "Amazing Journey" post[1] for Comma was illuminating; once a company is "[...] no longer a race car, [but] a boat" GeoHot is likely to bounce. I like AMD as much as the next guy, but I don't want to rely the software being provided by a personality who only really gets excited by working on new projects before the "wild success" stage (if we can call it that for Comma) 1. https://geohot.github.io//blog/jekyll/update/2022/10/29/the-heroes-journey.html https://geohot.github.io//blog/jekyll/update/2022/10/29/the-...
- textadventure 3y agoHe is still a part of Comma, as far as it seems, he is just by his own admission not the best guy to lead a company that got big enough for him and which needs certain stability and adhere to certain bureaucracy if you will. In some way, I think it's rather admirable that someone knows when to move aside and let others take the lead.
- herval 3y agohow big is it?
- foooobaba 3y agoHe has been working on tinygrad since atleast 2021. https://geohot.github.io/blog/jekyll/update/2021/06/13/a-breakdown-of-ai-chip-companies.html https://geohot.github.io/blog/jekyll/update/2021/06/13/a-bre...
- fastball 3y agoAI was already red hot in 2021, so not sure that detracts from OP's point. I know it seems like ages ago at the current pace, but ya gotta remember that GPT-3 was released in mid-2020.
- codetrotter 3y ago> GPT-3 was released in mid-2020 But not to everyone. I would argue that it was not until around December 2022 that the world at large got the opportunity to begin really using AI directly. With ChatGPT.
- xpose2000 3y agoTo me this is fair criticism. I was thinking the same thing. However, the world does need a viable competitor to Nvidia in AI. AI is not going anywhere. This is not a fad like some of the others mentioned but more likely than not where the next decade of innovation is built on.
- TheAceOfHearts 3y agoMy opinion of geohot definitely dropped after he started tweeting how easy it would be to fix Twitter, and then he started soliciting free work. He obviously underestimated the difficulty of shipping a feature across web and mobile. Hacking a prototype is trivial. Making it work well for all platforms, fully accessible, and across all supported languages is a bigger hurdle. It just gave me the impression that he thought frontend development was trivial and he'd just be able to hack it out in a day.
- anonymoushn 3y agoTwitter doesn't work well and isn't accessible so we needn't burden every product change with these additional concerns.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- godelski 3y agoFor me it was when he said that the cardinality of integers is the same as real numbers. Then I saw his twitter and all the politics and crazy stuff about QM.
- krick 3y ago> the cardinality of integers is the same as real numbers That's definitely more outrageous than saying that frontend is trivial. Whatever, I never took him seriously anyway.
- GauntletWizard 3y agoIsn't that just a trivial misunderstanding of Hilbert's Hotel? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hilbert%27s_paradox_of_the_Grand_Hotel https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hilbert%27s_paradox_of_the_Gra...
- godelski 3y ago
- randyrand 3y agoBut....Comma still exists, and they launched the 3rd version of their hardware.
- Ninjinka 3y agocomma hasn't "fizzled out", it's in active development and drives me to work.
- vippy 3y agoThis is the George Hotz MO: I trust him to create a lot less than I trust him to optimize, and I trust him with optimization only in a very narrow technical sense. "Optimizing" Twitter by reducing headcount to 50, regardless of the social or revenue consequences, is actually stupid. Optimizing a whole mess of software that exists between your tensor and the hardware is a decent idea.
- georgehotz 3y agoFor reference, comma released a new version of openpilot today, and we now sell comma threes. https://blog.comma.ai/092release/ https://blog.comma.ai/092release/
- djd20 3y agoCongrats! Just read up on thr taco bell drive. Great achievment! https://blog.comma.ai/taco-bell/ https://blog.comma.ai/taco-bell/
- sidcool 3y agoAre you really George Hotz?
- penguin_booze 3y agoTres commas: https://youtu.be/2XxwhMcUjYU https://youtu.be/2XxwhMcUjYU?
- effingwewt 3y agoFirst thing I thought of too, talk about life imitating art. I hadn't laughed so hard in a long time.
- penguin_booze 3y agoNot gonna lie: I watched the 'best of' Bachman and Hanneman immediately after I posted it!
- ncr100 3y agoCongratulations, sincerely. I'm glad that the company exists. I'm glad that smaller car manufacturers were exploring integrating the self-driving software, too. And, from a celebrity media perspective, I think your engagement at Twitter was underreported especially in gossip mongering pseudo serious technology fan sites like this one. It was an interesting shift for you, as you mature out of your first big startup into kind of a journeyman phase, in my view. (Tasting different experiences.) Something that is relatable to large numbers of us.
- yellow_lead 3y agoSome of the highlights from the Twitter saga: 1. Soliciting others to do his work - and offering internships to others that can help, in a kind of internship MLM (He was an intern at the time). 2. Complaining about how Twitter doesn't run on his laptop
- baby 3y agoDid comma actually tank? I was under the impression that they actually had a good product and were really honest about it too.
- YOJ 3y agothat is indeed still the case, the comment is just false. comma just released support for ford cars aswel. and open pilot got rated the best self driving tool above Tesla by consumer reports
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- ohashi 3y agoDid he fix Twitter yet?
- prepend 3y agoThat’s funny, I remember blackra1n and it was pretty clever.
- andrewmcwatters 3y agoThis is a pretty disingenuous take on a guy working with others to create solutions in spaces where there is literally no other comparable competitor. What kind of comment is this on a site that used to be called Startup News? Even if that doesn’t resonate with you, isn’t what he’s talking about pure hacker ethos anyway?