22 ms·

I live in SF and spend a fair amount of time thinking about its poor 5-year economic outlook. It's not great, but I am curious how it compares to other metros?

I live in SF and spend a fair amount of time thinking about its poor 5-year economic outlook. It's not great, but I am curious how it compares to other metros? If I were to move from SF, wanted to live in a metro area, and was uncomfortable living in a very red state - where should I consider? Where is thriving? I have a good amount of friends in Portland, but Portland is adjacent SF in terms of poor economic recovery and it's not especially tech-focused. So, I think there's at least a bit more at play here. There's a seismic shift occurring with WFH, Starlink, etc. Yes, San Francisco is near the bottom of many post-Covid economic recovery lists, but are there other metros that are on sound financial footing if 30%+ of their populace chooses a more suburban/rural lifestyle?

CydeWeys 3y ago
Most cities don't seem to be having the same problem (it's almost uniquely SF that has this problem). NYC for example is booming.
- SeanAnderson 3y ago
  https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2022/06/16/which-metro-areas-have-fared-better-in-the-covid-19-rebound/ https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2022/06/16/which-m... I haven't scrutinized this heavily, but, at a glance, it appears that the best recovery for "Work Trips" is still down 13.2%, New York is down 26%, and the worst, SF, is down 32.7%. In no way do I see these numbers as booming - they all make me question how the cities are going to balance their books as commercial real estate gets devalued and undermines taxation. Is that the wrong way to be looking at things? (EDIT: these numbers are old, my bad!)
  - CydeWeys 3y ago
    Are you planning on owning commercial real estate? If not, why does this one particular metric matter? NYC is booming in all senses of the word that apply to the daily experience of your typical person living here. The streets are PACKED with people out and about having a good time at all hours of day and night, and rents are at record highs because so many people want to live here. So what if not everyone is commuting into the office 5 days a week anymore? Don't buy an office building and you'll be good.
    - electriclove 3y ago
      How do you get around? Are the subways safe for tourists, families, etc?
      - CydeWeys 3y ago
        I bike and walk most places, but I'm perfectly fine taking the subway for longer distances. Even that question itself sounds like it's out of the past from three decades ago.
    - SeanAnderson 3y ago
      No, I am not planning on owning commercial, but I am interested in avoiding having taxes raised on me to fill a budget deficit. Taxes on commercial real estate generate a significant amount of revenue, commercial rental agreements are usually ~5-7 years, and so, at least in SF, there is a looming wave of devaluations which has yet to be realized. The city already has an estimated 800M budget shortfall without assuming commercial real estate devalues by 50%. When that happens the only quick fix is to bleed money from the populace. If commercial buildings aren't being used in NY then this will also occur there.
      - CydeWeys 3y ago
        I think you're being too speculative here. If you're really trying to minimize paying taxes, then you should be moving to a state with no income tax, don't buy property there (because states with no income tax tend to make up for it with high property taxes), and don't live in a city because cities will have local taxes. But you move to NYC, you do so because NYC is awesome and living here is great. I wouldn't pay less taxes to live in the middle of nowhere.
        SeanAnderson 3y ago
        Yeah, I think you're right. Thanks for the feedback. :)
        sangnoir 3y ago
  - woodruffw 3y ago
    Those numbers are almost a year old; NYC is expecting a significant rise in tourists[1] and for business travel numbers to return to pre-pandemic levels[2]. To my annoyance, rent has continued to rise as well. [1]: https://www.thrillist.com/news/new-york/nyc-expects-61-million-tourists-2023 https://www.thrillist.com/news/new-york/nyc-expects-61-milli... [2]: https://www.cityguideny.com/article/summer-tourism-data-nyc-2022 https://www.cityguideny.com/article/summer-tourism-data-nyc-...
  - gnopgnip 3y ago
    Because of prop 13 how much does the value of commercial real estate effect taxation?
- warning26 3y ago
  Exactly; the tech companies in SF didn't have the backbone to require RTO like the finance firms in NYC did. The cities' respective recoveries show that the finance firms made the right call.
  - bubblethink 3y ago
    Right call for whom ? What's it got to do with backbone if it is just not in anyone (except landlords') interest to mandate RTO ?
    - warning26 3y ago
      I'd argue that people having to leave their house every day is better for society as a whole, even if it feels a bit inconvenient. Having everyone lock themselves inside and exclusively interact via video chat is not a good thing, IMO.
      - dumbotron 3y ago
        > Having everyone lock themselves inside and exclusively interact via video chat is not a good thing, IMO. Sounds like a Black Mirror episode.
  - Ancalagon 3y ago
    Is "backbone" the new moniker for "iron fist"?
  - surgical_fire 3y ago
    lol people would just move jobs to keep working remote. That's the beauty of working in tech. There's a lot of companies to move over to. Finance is a lot more restricted.
    - CydeWeys 3y ago
      And, interestingly enough, an increasing number of people have moved to NYC to work remotely from here. Living in NYC is a legitimate attraction in its own right, and is appealing to a lot of people even if they're not working here.
- jeffbee 3y ago
  This problem is not at all unique to SF. According to Cushman & Wakefield, Austin has 23% vacant offices, Manhattan has 23%, Brooklyn 24%, and SF has 25%, same as Minneapolis and Chicago, while Houston has 26% vacant. https://www.cushmanwakefield.com/en/united-states/insights/us-marketbeats/us-office-marketbeat-reports https://www.cushmanwakefield.com/en/united-states/insights/u...
  - CydeWeys 3y ago
    Unless you are the owner/lessor of commercial real estate, why does this matter? NYC is happening these days, even if not everyone is going back to the office every day. They're still here in their homes (which are renting out for record high rates) and going about their daily lives in the city, which is absolutely packed.
    - jeffbee 3y ago
      But downtown SF has always been like a scene out of "Night of the Comet" compared to NY.
      - CydeWeys 3y ago
        Look, I'm not gonna argue with you that NYC has always been better than SF (it obviously has), but post-pandemic now the difference is even more stark. NYC's economy is much more diverse than SF's, and also has much more housing within city limits, to the point that it hasn't suffered nearly as much from the pandemic, and indeed right now is booming whereas SF is withering.
        alephnerd 3y ago
        Ehn, SF is returning to its pre-2010 roots (heck, even the population in SF has fallen to the same level as it was in the 2000s). The entire sofrware+hardware industry before the 2010s was south of Redwood Shores and the biotech industry was always situated in northern San Mateo County. Before the 2010s, SF was primarily a hub for the Northern California legal+investment banking industries, both of which cratered during the GFC. There's a reason why "FiDi" is called that - SF used to be the Wall Street of the West until the GFC, and most private sector white collar jobs in the city back then were legal and finance related.
- RC_ITR 3y ago
  The problem everyone seems to miss is that SF is one of the few places that had a recession due to COVID (not necessarily a GDP recessions, but definitely a weak businesses closed en masse recession) and a lot of other places (illogically) boomed during COVID. Given recent history (Phoenix MSA’s 2011 GDP was lower than 2007 GDP, whereas SF never went below 2007 levels), it’s not unreasonable to think that other cities are simply in artificial bubbles from the $3tn that was given to consumers over the past 3 years.
  - foobiekr 3y ago
    The recession was caused by fake tech startups built on ZIRP policies running into IPO difficulties after a bunch of them dumped on the market.
imbnwa 3y ago
Chicago?
- SeanAnderson 3y ago
  Down 22.7% in Work Trips to its metro area compared to SF's 32%. It's possible that it's less dependent on the foot traffic, though.
- halfmatthalfcat 3y ago
  I think Chicago and IL are slept on in general but have a lot of long term positives. IL (thanks to Pritzker and a post-Magidan House) is starting to shore up fiscally, Lake Michigan (for both recreation and water supply) and a decent public transit system make it very appealing.
- bblpeter 3y ago
  [flagged]
- ok_coo 3y ago
  Chicago is a good choice but a lot of people wouldn't be able to tolerate the winter. It can be brutal to get through. The bonus on the other side of it is that the summers are amazing with all of the public beaches and summer events going on.
- wenc 3y ago
  Chicago is a great city. Cold climate, warm people, actual downtown with actual transit, great food, great diversity, affordable, actual amenities and great intellectual life. The cold climate isn’t too different from Toronto (and no it’s really not that windy).
  - gautamcgoel 3y ago
    Fun fact: Chicago became known as the windy city due to the "long-winded" speeches it's politicians were giving.
TechBro8615 3y ago
I've learned that I prefer mini-metro areas with population on the order of 250k people... you get most of the upsides of a city without many of the downsides, while also retaining advantages of smaller areas like more green spaces and lower cost of living.
- brianwawok 3y ago
  That is where I moved to Chicago from ;) I can do most things I want to do. My max drive is like 15 minutes. And if I need Chicago for like their airport.. meh, 2 hour drive. About the same as my old 7 mile subway ride while I lived in the city.
- vikingerik 3y ago
  Yup, that's the sweet spot. Richmond VA is a great example of such a mid sized city - housing is affordable, traffic is manageable, and it's big enough to have things to do and find like-minded hobbyists.
  - actionablefiber 3y ago
    DC is it for me. I don't want to own a car or drive, I want to ride a bike or take the train everywhere I go, and DC has the infrastructure to support that lifestyle.
  - drewg123 3y ago
    The downside of Richmond is that you get to add an extra ~2 hours to most trips to the west coast. Either by the need to change planes in ATL/CLT/ORD/etc, or by having to drive to DCA/IAD to take a direct flight.
    - robszumski 3y ago
      RIC is getting more direct flights as volume picks up. Breeze flies to SFO direct, but its not super regular and apparently they cancel them last minute (yikes!).
mc32 3y ago
San Diego perhaps?
- latchkey 3y ago
  In terms of density, San Diego is like a stretched out San Francisco. The best places to live are along the coastline and an ocean view is very expensive. My tiny condo, with a view, has a higher cost per sq. foot than $3m victorians in San Francisco. But you're right, at this point, I'd still rather be in SD than SF.
  - kylehotchkiss 3y ago
    Are you downtown? I can't think of any tiny condo that costs that much anywhere else.
    - latchkey 3y ago
      $1,762 per sqft. No, I'm at the beach.
- kylehotchkiss 3y ago
  +1 for San Diego. It's small enough you can be familiar with most of the neighborhoods and still big enough there's always an interesting event or new restaurant to check out. Apple has expansion plans in the region. The military/larger federal government presence is sort of nice, I sense that plus the large tourism numbers helps keep SD away from the extreme end of California politics. The weather is a huge plus, and I anticipate the city will handle global warming a little better than other regions. The county has made a lot of good decisions with water management too, from keeping the reservoirs full to supplying almost 10% of the water supply from a desal plant. I disagree that the coastline is the only "nice" place to get a house, the ocean is pretty accessible from most parts of the city due to the highway designs. Of course, there's issues with homelessness, retail theft, poor public transit, expensive housing. But it all seems a little more tame to me than the same issues in LA/SF/Seattle.
  - 3y ago
eatbitseveryday 3y ago
Living in big cities within "red" states is not like living in the state itself outside the city, other than you are all affected by the same state laws (unless the latter is the main concern). Atlanta GA, Austin TX, etc. are all "blue in a sea of red" as they say. Lived in the former myself for many years. Yes you're affected by state laws, but most of the folks in large cities are going to be less like the stereotype associated with the state.
- no_wizard 3y ago
  I share one thought about this, which is I don't want my tax dollars supporting red state policies, in essence, and I wonder if OP feels the same way
  - bblpeter 3y ago
    [flagged]
    - halfmatthalfcat 3y ago
      You mean states like Texas where schools and malls definitely aren’t being shot up?
      - bblpeter 3y ago
        You mean like SF where there’s no looting?
        dang 3y ago
        We've banned this account for repeatedly posting unsubstantive and/or flamebait comments to HN. Please don't create accounts to break HN's rules with. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
    - lwelyk 3y ago
      please don't post obvious bait on HN. The recent wave of legislation being passed is obviously nothing related to crime. https://apnews.com/article/desantis-florida-dont-say-gay-ban-684ed25a303f83208a89c556543183cb https://apnews.com/article/desantis-florida-dont-say-gay-ban...
jntvjnvutnuvt 3y ago
Miami is booming but I do fear the Californian migrants there will just turn it into another San Francisco in due time.
- paulryanrogers 3y ago
  In what way(s)?
- tempsy 3y ago
  It's booming in the sense that wealthy people are buying up property. That isn't the same as being a new hub for a lot of business creation and frankly haven't seen a lot of evidence established companies are eager to make it into a new hub or that there's a bunch of growing startups there with real traction.
  - jntvjnvutnuvt 3y ago
    Miami is the fastest growing tech hub in America [1]. Citadel is moving to Miami from Chicago and Guggenheim is about to do the same. [1] https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2023/04/12/silicon-valley-bay-area-tech/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2023/04/12/silicon...
    - alephnerd 3y ago
      The Chicago to Miami move is primarily an income tax avoidance scheme common in the HFT industry within Illinois, especially after the state instituted a 5% income tax after the IL budget crisis in 2017-18.
- MrMan 3y ago
  [dead]
TuringNYC 3y ago
I can only offer anecdotes, but: 1. NYC is booming IMHO 2. Pre-pandemic, there was barely room to walk on the sidewalks in many parts of NYC, now it is better (presumably as people come in 2x a week, not 5x). Some subways have seats now, but many are still standing-room-only. 3. For the last 8yrs pre-pandemic, I used to go to SF/SV 4x to 5x a year for work/conferences...My last Cali trip (cancelled) was literally April 2020 for NVIDIA GTC...I havent been in Cali since 2020. Most has been replaced with Zoom, some has gone to other cities.
- tempsy 3y ago
  A "booming" NYC is not necessarily a purely positive thing. SF and NYC used to be fairly comparable as far as cost of living goes but now renting in SF is comparable to a dozen other metros (eg. $3k for a 1 bed, under $4k for a 2 bed) but in NYC it's a now an absurdly expensive outlier eg. $5k+ for a 1 bed in a convenient area in Manhattan or Brooklyn. Beyond that eating out/going out/uber+taxis all seemed much more expensive in NYC than SF when I visited last month.
  - woodruffw 3y ago
    NYC is indeed absurdly expensive (and getting worse), but: you're being taken for a ride if someone is trying to rent you a 1BR for $5K. I live in a convenient (and "cool") area and pay less than a third of that. The only 1BRs that I'm aware of that go for anywhere close to that are "luxury" rentals, which tend to be worse anyways (newer construction means thinner walls, etc.).
    - tempsy 3y ago
      You're suggesting paying $1600/mo for your own place is a really good area of NYC is more the norm than paying $5k? That's simply untrue. Average 1 beds on Zumper for all of Manhattan is $4k. In more central areas downtown it's absolutely going to be more right now. https://www.zumper.com/rent-research/manhattan-ny https://www.zumper.com/rent-research/manhattan-ny And if you rent something that requires a brokers fee then that's another ~2 months of rent you're paying on your initial lease.
bblpeter 3y ago
[flagged]
caycep 3y ago
LA...albeit housing is still expensive. The other thing is...SF downtown at least in real estate is having a downturn, but I have to imagine, the region in and of itself isn't doing too badly.
kibwen 3y ago
Not all industries will be equally impacted by WFH. SF is being gutted because the only equipment a programmer needs is a computer. If you're looking for a healthy metro area that will weather the WFH realignment, look for one whose primary industries require equipment that you can't pick up at Best Buy. Things like healthcare, biotech, and research universities (just to name a few) will still require butts in seats. Off the top of my head, Boston, Pittsburgh, Cleveland will be fine. NYC might be impacted because of the finance industry, but it's also plenty diversified. (Furthermore, in the long term SF will be fine because the geography and climate is beautiful, and people will always be clamoring to live there regardless of industry, in the same way people desire to live in Honolulu. But it's in for a rough time in the near term as the tech industry diasporizes.)
- dumbotron 3y ago
  > SF is being gutted because the only equipment a programmer needs is a computer I think that's only half of it. The other half is a lot of people were only in SF for the money. When given the opportunity to leave and make the same money, they did.
bityard 3y ago
Personal politics, IMO, is not a good reason to avoid living in certain areas. I'm a liberal-leaning moderate but many of my favorite people (friends and family) are conservative, and many of my hobbies tend to be populated mainly by the conservative demographic. You'll always find people here and there who won't give you the time of day if you're not on Team Blue or Team Red, but my take on it is, if I can't make friends with people who hold beliefs different from my own, then maybe I'm the asshole. That said, if it really matters that much to you, you'll find plenty of swing states with mid-sized cities in the Midwest. Upsides are low cost of living, 20 minutes from the center of the city to cornfields. Downsides are you can't go too far north if you don't like cold winters. No area is thriving right now thanks to the recession, but it sounds like you are aiming for remote work anyway, so why does that matter? If I were in your shoes, I would pick a place that has the geography, climate, and cost of living I am looking for and not worry so much about the politics and economic prospects of the area.
- ejb999 3y ago
  >> if I can't make friends with people who hold beliefs different from my own, then maybe I'm the asshole. Well said...and true.
  - jkubicek 3y ago
    When folks say stuff like this, I feel like they're imagining two buddies arguing over tax reform or something. I'm absolutely fine being friends with someone who has conservative economic beliefs. What I'm not fine with is being friendly with someone who supports policies designed to hurt my friends and family.
    - bityard 3y ago
      It turns out that befriending people who hold opposite and even toxic opinions is actually a great way to bring them back to more moderate and rational thinking. There is a Jordan Harbinger podcast about a black man who single-handedly dismantled multiple KKK clans literally by befriending them. The trick is to approach the other person with curiosity and reason, not with judgement and adversity. Not everyone can be talked out of being a racist (or whateverist) of course but at the end of the day we all have more in common than we have in difference and a surprising number of people are willing to change their views on an entire demographic if they aren't being shouted at, shamed, or just silently shunned.
baby 3y ago
I don’t think you received great answers besides New York. I myself am trying to move from SF to New York. The reality is that in the US New York is the only city that seems livable if you are not a car. Chicago is the only one I can think of that’s dense and has life as a pedestrian, but the winter there is intense. It’s too bad because real estate is cheap there.
- ghc 3y ago
  You definitely don't need (or want) a car in Boston. Boston is extremely pedestrian friendly and correspondingly hostile to cars. 95% of the people who complain about getting around here are commuters from outside the city.
  - helen___keller 3y ago
    Unfortunately this isn’t true in all of greater Boston or even within the whole metro core. If you live in Watertown, Quincy, Waltham, Newton, etc etc you are going to have a very different experience My main complaint with Boston is that even if you’re happy with just the walkable city center, it’s still tough commuting if you can’t walk/bike and you aren’t going to/from downtown Boston. For example if someone in Somerville takes a job in Boston Landing they’re looking at a multiple seat commute over an hour most likely, to effectively travel maybe 5-10 miles. Driving still ends up winning.
    - Gravityloss 3y ago
      If you're going 5 miles, biking sounds like a realistic alternative?
      - helen___keller 3y ago
        Yep, the drive and bike times for my example are roughly the same at rush hour according to google. For someone interesting in biking as a commute, Boston/camberville is probably one of the best places to live+work. If you can deal with the winter anyways
dumbotron 3y ago
I saw this today. It looks at mass transit funding in big metros. Mass transit is interesting because it's a proxy for downtown health. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-09/us-public-transit-is-in-crisis-from-washington-to-san-francisco https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-09/us-public... The outlook isn't good, and the shortfalls mean there will likely be service cuts, driving people away from city centers even more. SF will probably be worse off because of how poorly it's handled homelessness, theft, and drug use.
refurb 3y ago
States change over time. Colorado used to be quite red a couple decades ago. And states aren’t monolithic just because they “red” or “blue”. You’ll find liberals and conservatives in every state. I understand not wanting to live in a state that has laws you can live under, whether abortion or gun control or marijuana, but remove those and there are still a ton of options.
deleted 3y ago
[deleted]

CydeWeys 3y ago

Most cities don't seem to be having the same problem (it's almost uniquely SF that has this problem). NYC for example is booming.

SeanAnderson 3y ago
https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2022/06/16/which-metro-areas-have-fared-better-in-the-covid-19-rebound/ https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2022/06/16/which-m... I haven't scrutinized this heavily, but, at a glance, it appears that the best recovery for "Work Trips" is still down 13.2%, New York is down 26%, and the worst, SF, is down 32.7%. In no way do I see these numbers as booming - they all make me question how the cities are going to balance their books as commercial real estate gets devalued and undermines taxation. Is that the wrong way to be looking at things? (EDIT: these numbers are old, my bad!)
- CydeWeys 3y ago
  Are you planning on owning commercial real estate? If not, why does this one particular metric matter? NYC is booming in all senses of the word that apply to the daily experience of your typical person living here. The streets are PACKED with people out and about having a good time at all hours of day and night, and rents are at record highs because so many people want to live here. So what if not everyone is commuting into the office 5 days a week anymore? Don't buy an office building and you'll be good.
  - electriclove 3y ago
    How do you get around? Are the subways safe for tourists, families, etc?
    - CydeWeys 3y ago
      I bike and walk most places, but I'm perfectly fine taking the subway for longer distances. Even that question itself sounds like it's out of the past from three decades ago.
  - SeanAnderson 3y ago
    No, I am not planning on owning commercial, but I am interested in avoiding having taxes raised on me to fill a budget deficit. Taxes on commercial real estate generate a significant amount of revenue, commercial rental agreements are usually ~5-7 years, and so, at least in SF, there is a looming wave of devaluations which has yet to be realized. The city already has an estimated 800M budget shortfall without assuming commercial real estate devalues by 50%. When that happens the only quick fix is to bleed money from the populace. If commercial buildings aren't being used in NY then this will also occur there.
    - CydeWeys 3y ago
      I think you're being too speculative here. If you're really trying to minimize paying taxes, then you should be moving to a state with no income tax, don't buy property there (because states with no income tax tend to make up for it with high property taxes), and don't live in a city because cities will have local taxes. But you move to NYC, you do so because NYC is awesome and living here is great. I wouldn't pay less taxes to live in the middle of nowhere.
      - SeanAnderson 3y ago
        Yeah, I think you're right. Thanks for the feedback. :)
      - sangnoir 3y ago
- woodruffw 3y ago
  Those numbers are almost a year old; NYC is expecting a significant rise in tourists[1] and for business travel numbers to return to pre-pandemic levels[2]. To my annoyance, rent has continued to rise as well. [1]: https://www.thrillist.com/news/new-york/nyc-expects-61-million-tourists-2023 https://www.thrillist.com/news/new-york/nyc-expects-61-milli... [2]: https://www.cityguideny.com/article/summer-tourism-data-nyc-2022 https://www.cityguideny.com/article/summer-tourism-data-nyc-...
- gnopgnip 3y ago
  Because of prop 13 how much does the value of commercial real estate effect taxation?
warning26 3y ago
Exactly; the tech companies in SF didn't have the backbone to require RTO like the finance firms in NYC did. The cities' respective recoveries show that the finance firms made the right call.
- bubblethink 3y ago
  Right call for whom ? What's it got to do with backbone if it is just not in anyone (except landlords') interest to mandate RTO ?
  - warning26 3y ago
    I'd argue that people having to leave their house every day is better for society as a whole, even if it feels a bit inconvenient. Having everyone lock themselves inside and exclusively interact via video chat is not a good thing, IMO.
    - dumbotron 3y ago
      > Having everyone lock themselves inside and exclusively interact via video chat is not a good thing, IMO. Sounds like a Black Mirror episode.
- Ancalagon 3y ago
  Is "backbone" the new moniker for "iron fist"?
- surgical_fire 3y ago
  lol people would just move jobs to keep working remote. That's the beauty of working in tech. There's a lot of companies to move over to. Finance is a lot more restricted.
  - CydeWeys 3y ago
    And, interestingly enough, an increasing number of people have moved to NYC to work remotely from here. Living in NYC is a legitimate attraction in its own right, and is appealing to a lot of people even if they're not working here.
jeffbee 3y ago
This problem is not at all unique to SF. According to Cushman & Wakefield, Austin has 23% vacant offices, Manhattan has 23%, Brooklyn 24%, and SF has 25%, same as Minneapolis and Chicago, while Houston has 26% vacant. https://www.cushmanwakefield.com/en/united-states/insights/us-marketbeats/us-office-marketbeat-reports https://www.cushmanwakefield.com/en/united-states/insights/u...
- CydeWeys 3y ago
  Unless you are the owner/lessor of commercial real estate, why does this matter? NYC is happening these days, even if not everyone is going back to the office every day. They're still here in their homes (which are renting out for record high rates) and going about their daily lives in the city, which is absolutely packed.
  - jeffbee 3y ago
    But downtown SF has always been like a scene out of "Night of the Comet" compared to NY.
    - CydeWeys 3y ago
      Look, I'm not gonna argue with you that NYC has always been better than SF (it obviously has), but post-pandemic now the difference is even more stark. NYC's economy is much more diverse than SF's, and also has much more housing within city limits, to the point that it hasn't suffered nearly as much from the pandemic, and indeed right now is booming whereas SF is withering.
      - alephnerd 3y ago
        Ehn, SF is returning to its pre-2010 roots (heck, even the population in SF has fallen to the same level as it was in the 2000s). The entire sofrware+hardware industry before the 2010s was south of Redwood Shores and the biotech industry was always situated in northern San Mateo County. Before the 2010s, SF was primarily a hub for the Northern California legal+investment banking industries, both of which cratered during the GFC. There's a reason why "FiDi" is called that - SF used to be the Wall Street of the West until the GFC, and most private sector white collar jobs in the city back then were legal and finance related.
RC_ITR 3y ago
The problem everyone seems to miss is that SF is one of the few places that had a recession due to COVID (not necessarily a GDP recessions, but definitely a weak businesses closed en masse recession) and a lot of other places (illogically) boomed during COVID. Given recent history (Phoenix MSA’s 2011 GDP was lower than 2007 GDP, whereas SF never went below 2007 levels), it’s not unreasonable to think that other cities are simply in artificial bubbles from the $3tn that was given to consumers over the past 3 years.
- foobiekr 3y ago
  The recession was caused by fake tech startups built on ZIRP policies running into IPO difficulties after a bunch of them dumped on the market.

imbnwa 3y ago

Chicago?

SeanAnderson 3y ago
Down 22.7% in Work Trips to its metro area compared to SF's 32%. It's possible that it's less dependent on the foot traffic, though.
halfmatthalfcat 3y ago
I think Chicago and IL are slept on in general but have a lot of long term positives. IL (thanks to Pritzker and a post-Magidan House) is starting to shore up fiscally, Lake Michigan (for both recreation and water supply) and a decent public transit system make it very appealing.
bblpeter 3y ago
[flagged]
ok_coo 3y ago
Chicago is a good choice but a lot of people wouldn't be able to tolerate the winter. It can be brutal to get through. The bonus on the other side of it is that the summers are amazing with all of the public beaches and summer events going on.
wenc 3y ago
Chicago is a great city. Cold climate, warm people, actual downtown with actual transit, great food, great diversity, affordable, actual amenities and great intellectual life. The cold climate isn’t too different from Toronto (and no it’s really not that windy).
- gautamcgoel 3y ago
  Fun fact: Chicago became known as the windy city due to the "long-winded" speeches it's politicians were giving.

TechBro8615 3y ago

I've learned that I prefer mini-metro areas with population on the order of 250k people... you get most of the upsides of a city without many of the downsides, while also retaining advantages of smaller areas like more green spaces and lower cost of living.

brianwawok 3y ago
That is where I moved to Chicago from ;) I can do most things I want to do. My max drive is like 15 minutes. And if I need Chicago for like their airport.. meh, 2 hour drive. About the same as my old 7 mile subway ride while I lived in the city.
vikingerik 3y ago
Yup, that's the sweet spot. Richmond VA is a great example of such a mid sized city - housing is affordable, traffic is manageable, and it's big enough to have things to do and find like-minded hobbyists.
- actionablefiber 3y ago
  DC is it for me. I don't want to own a car or drive, I want to ride a bike or take the train everywhere I go, and DC has the infrastructure to support that lifestyle.
- drewg123 3y ago
  The downside of Richmond is that you get to add an extra ~2 hours to most trips to the west coast. Either by the need to change planes in ATL/CLT/ORD/etc, or by having to drive to DCA/IAD to take a direct flight.
  - robszumski 3y ago
    RIC is getting more direct flights as volume picks up. Breeze flies to SFO direct, but its not super regular and apparently they cancel them last minute (yikes!).

mc32 3y ago

San Diego perhaps?

latchkey 3y ago
In terms of density, San Diego is like a stretched out San Francisco. The best places to live are along the coastline and an ocean view is very expensive. My tiny condo, with a view, has a higher cost per sq. foot than $3m victorians in San Francisco. But you're right, at this point, I'd still rather be in SD than SF.
- kylehotchkiss 3y ago
  Are you downtown? I can't think of any tiny condo that costs that much anywhere else.
  - latchkey 3y ago
    $1,762 per sqft. No, I'm at the beach.
kylehotchkiss 3y ago
+1 for San Diego. It's small enough you can be familiar with most of the neighborhoods and still big enough there's always an interesting event or new restaurant to check out. Apple has expansion plans in the region. The military/larger federal government presence is sort of nice, I sense that plus the large tourism numbers helps keep SD away from the extreme end of California politics. The weather is a huge plus, and I anticipate the city will handle global warming a little better than other regions. The county has made a lot of good decisions with water management too, from keeping the reservoirs full to supplying almost 10% of the water supply from a desal plant. I disagree that the coastline is the only "nice" place to get a house, the ocean is pretty accessible from most parts of the city due to the highway designs. Of course, there's issues with homelessness, retail theft, poor public transit, expensive housing. But it all seems a little more tame to me than the same issues in LA/SF/Seattle.
- 3y ago

eatbitseveryday 3y ago

Living in big cities within "red" states is not like living in the state itself outside the city, other than you are all affected by the same state laws (unless the latter is the main concern). Atlanta GA, Austin TX, etc. are all "blue in a sea of red" as they say. Lived in the former myself for many years. Yes you're affected by state laws, but most of the folks in large cities are going to be less like the stereotype associated with the state.

no_wizard 3y ago
I share one thought about this, which is I don't want my tax dollars supporting red state policies, in essence, and I wonder if OP feels the same way
- bblpeter 3y ago
  [flagged]
  - halfmatthalfcat 3y ago
    You mean states like Texas where schools and malls definitely aren’t being shot up?
    - bblpeter 3y ago
      You mean like SF where there’s no looting?
      - dang 3y ago
        We've banned this account for repeatedly posting unsubstantive and/or flamebait comments to HN. Please don't create accounts to break HN's rules with. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
  - lwelyk 3y ago
    please don't post obvious bait on HN. The recent wave of legislation being passed is obviously nothing related to crime. https://apnews.com/article/desantis-florida-dont-say-gay-ban-684ed25a303f83208a89c556543183cb https://apnews.com/article/desantis-florida-dont-say-gay-ban...

jntvjnvutnuvt 3y ago

Miami is booming but I do fear the Californian migrants there will just turn it into another San Francisco in due time.

paulryanrogers 3y ago
In what way(s)?
tempsy 3y ago
It's booming in the sense that wealthy people are buying up property. That isn't the same as being a new hub for a lot of business creation and frankly haven't seen a lot of evidence established companies are eager to make it into a new hub or that there's a bunch of growing startups there with real traction.
- jntvjnvutnuvt 3y ago
  Miami is the fastest growing tech hub in America [1]. Citadel is moving to Miami from Chicago and Guggenheim is about to do the same. [1] https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2023/04/12/silicon-valley-bay-area-tech/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2023/04/12/silicon...
  - alephnerd 3y ago
    The Chicago to Miami move is primarily an income tax avoidance scheme common in the HFT industry within Illinois, especially after the state instituted a 5% income tax after the IL budget crisis in 2017-18.
MrMan 3y ago
[dead]

TuringNYC 3y ago

I can only offer anecdotes, but: 1. NYC is booming IMHO 2. Pre-pandemic, there was barely room to walk on the sidewalks in many parts of NYC, now it is better (presumably as people come in 2x a week, not 5x). Some subways have seats now, but many are still standing-room-only. 3. For the last 8yrs pre-pandemic, I used to go to SF/SV 4x to 5x a year for work/conferences...My last Cali trip (cancelled) was literally April 2020 for NVIDIA GTC...I havent been in Cali since 2020. Most has been replaced with Zoom, some has gone to other cities.

tempsy 3y ago
A "booming" NYC is not necessarily a purely positive thing. SF and NYC used to be fairly comparable as far as cost of living goes but now renting in SF is comparable to a dozen other metros (eg. $3k for a 1 bed, under $4k for a 2 bed) but in NYC it's a now an absurdly expensive outlier eg. $5k+ for a 1 bed in a convenient area in Manhattan or Brooklyn. Beyond that eating out/going out/uber+taxis all seemed much more expensive in NYC than SF when I visited last month.
- woodruffw 3y ago
  NYC is indeed absurdly expensive (and getting worse), but: you're being taken for a ride if someone is trying to rent you a 1BR for $5K. I live in a convenient (and "cool") area and pay less than a third of that. The only 1BRs that I'm aware of that go for anywhere close to that are "luxury" rentals, which tend to be worse anyways (newer construction means thinner walls, etc.).
  - tempsy 3y ago
    You're suggesting paying $1600/mo for your own place is a really good area of NYC is more the norm than paying $5k? That's simply untrue. Average 1 beds on Zumper for all of Manhattan is $4k. In more central areas downtown it's absolutely going to be more right now. https://www.zumper.com/rent-research/manhattan-ny https://www.zumper.com/rent-research/manhattan-ny And if you rent something that requires a brokers fee then that's another ~2 months of rent you're paying on your initial lease.

bblpeter 3y ago

[flagged]

caycep 3y ago

LA...albeit housing is still expensive. The other thing is...SF downtown at least in real estate is having a downturn, but I have to imagine, the region in and of itself isn't doing too badly.

kibwen 3y ago

Not all industries will be equally impacted by WFH. SF is being gutted because the only equipment a programmer needs is a computer. If you're looking for a healthy metro area that will weather the WFH realignment, look for one whose primary industries require equipment that you can't pick up at Best Buy. Things like healthcare, biotech, and research universities (just to name a few) will still require butts in seats. Off the top of my head, Boston, Pittsburgh, Cleveland will be fine. NYC might be impacted because of the finance industry, but it's also plenty diversified. (Furthermore, in the long term SF will be fine because the geography and climate is beautiful, and people will always be clamoring to live there regardless of industry, in the same way people desire to live in Honolulu. But it's in for a rough time in the near term as the tech industry diasporizes.)

dumbotron 3y ago
> SF is being gutted because the only equipment a programmer needs is a computer I think that's only half of it. The other half is a lot of people were only in SF for the money. When given the opportunity to leave and make the same money, they did.

bityard 3y ago

Personal politics, IMO, is not a good reason to avoid living in certain areas. I'm a liberal-leaning moderate but many of my favorite people (friends and family) are conservative, and many of my hobbies tend to be populated mainly by the conservative demographic. You'll always find people here and there who won't give you the time of day if you're not on Team Blue or Team Red, but my take on it is, if I can't make friends with people who hold beliefs different from my own, then maybe I'm the asshole. That said, if it really matters that much to you, you'll find plenty of swing states with mid-sized cities in the Midwest. Upsides are low cost of living, 20 minutes from the center of the city to cornfields. Downsides are you can't go too far north if you don't like cold winters. No area is thriving right now thanks to the recession, but it sounds like you are aiming for remote work anyway, so why does that matter? If I were in your shoes, I would pick a place that has the geography, climate, and cost of living I am looking for and not worry so much about the politics and economic prospects of the area.

ejb999 3y ago
>> if I can't make friends with people who hold beliefs different from my own, then maybe I'm the asshole. Well said...and true.
- jkubicek 3y ago
  When folks say stuff like this, I feel like they're imagining two buddies arguing over tax reform or something. I'm absolutely fine being friends with someone who has conservative economic beliefs. What I'm not fine with is being friendly with someone who supports policies designed to hurt my friends and family.
  - bityard 3y ago
    It turns out that befriending people who hold opposite and even toxic opinions is actually a great way to bring them back to more moderate and rational thinking. There is a Jordan Harbinger podcast about a black man who single-handedly dismantled multiple KKK clans literally by befriending them. The trick is to approach the other person with curiosity and reason, not with judgement and adversity. Not everyone can be talked out of being a racist (or whateverist) of course but at the end of the day we all have more in common than we have in difference and a surprising number of people are willing to change their views on an entire demographic if they aren't being shouted at, shamed, or just silently shunned.

baby 3y ago

I don’t think you received great answers besides New York. I myself am trying to move from SF to New York. The reality is that in the US New York is the only city that seems livable if you are not a car. Chicago is the only one I can think of that’s dense and has life as a pedestrian, but the winter there is intense. It’s too bad because real estate is cheap there.

ghc 3y ago
You definitely don't need (or want) a car in Boston. Boston is extremely pedestrian friendly and correspondingly hostile to cars. 95% of the people who complain about getting around here are commuters from outside the city.
- helen___keller 3y ago
  Unfortunately this isn’t true in all of greater Boston or even within the whole metro core. If you live in Watertown, Quincy, Waltham, Newton, etc etc you are going to have a very different experience My main complaint with Boston is that even if you’re happy with just the walkable city center, it’s still tough commuting if you can’t walk/bike and you aren’t going to/from downtown Boston. For example if someone in Somerville takes a job in Boston Landing they’re looking at a multiple seat commute over an hour most likely, to effectively travel maybe 5-10 miles. Driving still ends up winning.
  - Gravityloss 3y ago
    If you're going 5 miles, biking sounds like a realistic alternative?
    - helen___keller 3y ago
      Yep, the drive and bike times for my example are roughly the same at rush hour according to google. For someone interesting in biking as a commute, Boston/camberville is probably one of the best places to live+work. If you can deal with the winter anyways

dumbotron 3y ago

I saw this today. It looks at mass transit funding in big metros. Mass transit is interesting because it's a proxy for downtown health. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-09/us-public-transit-is-in-crisis-from-washington-to-san-francisco https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-09/us-public... The outlook isn't good, and the shortfalls mean there will likely be service cuts, driving people away from city centers even more. SF will probably be worse off because of how poorly it's handled homelessness, theft, and drug use.

refurb 3y ago

States change over time. Colorado used to be quite red a couple decades ago. And states aren’t monolithic just because they “red” or “blue”. You’ll find liberals and conservatives in every state. I understand not wanting to live in a state that has laws you can live under, whether abortion or gun control or marijuana, but remove those and there are still a ton of options.

deleted 3y ago

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