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Intel is expected to post its biggest loss on record
- carlycue 3y agohttps://archive.ph/6kHRz https://archive.ph/6kHRz
- 1attice 3y agore-shoring semiconductor industry - what was aimed for vs - how it's going
- darkteflon 3y agoAbsolutely no evidence to back this up, but if I were the Taiwanese government, I’d be making sure TSMC was slooow-walking their overseas expansion plans.
- brucethemoose2 3y agoThe US plant was very much "have your cake and eat it." Not that big or leading edge, but plenty big enough to tout.
- brucethemoose2 3y agoTBH this makes me want to buy some Intel. Seems like TSMC's days are number, so... is the entire western world just gonna accept a Samsung Foundry monopoly? Feels like Intel is Too Big to Fail (even if they keep falling behind their own timetables). Also it feels like a make-or-break moment for a lot of things like Gaudi, Xe, and the chiplet focus.
- v0idzer0 3y agogenerally agree but the anecdotal evidence I heard from a former employee about the internal dysfunction has scared me away. apparently everyone in a leadership position has a rudimentary understanding of the products they build and is chasing off all the talent like Jim Keller who are forced to deliver the bad news that they’ve made a mess they cannot easily clean up without abandoning current initiatives and starting anew with more knowledgeable leadership
- twelve40 3y agowhy are TSMC's days numbered?
- blacksmith_tb 3y agoNot the OP, but I imagine there's at least some market watchers who assume the PRC will gobble up Taiwan sooner rather than later. Intel seems like a poor alternative, but if it's all you had...
- epolanski 3y agoSpeculating that something may happen is different from having such certainties. Taiwan and China are nowhere near the Ukrainian situation. Also TSMC is planning to open outside Taiwan soon.
- brucethemoose2 3y ago> Also TSMC is planning to open outside Taiwan soon. This is true, but most of their capacity is in Taiwan, and will remain in Taiwan for some time.
- Spooky23 3y agoIt’s in nobody’s interest to start a war over this. It’s all fluff. There’s a cottage industry of war hawks who sell various narratives about China to rile up the mostly republican base. My favorite is Gordon Chang, who a few years ago was predicting that the Chinese communist party and state was going to collapse and start some sort of war. Now the Chinese are beating the USA in space and are about to invade Taiwan. It’s all stupid. Semiconductors are a high risk capital intensive business. Just like Verizon bet and lost on mmWave 5G and is getting its butt kicked by TMobile, Intel bet on 450mm wafers and lost. Strategically, they’re in a recoverable position. TSMC is at capacity and needs to invest billions and execute to maintain their lead. Cloud is challenging their margins, but their relationship with Microsoft gives them leverage.
- reducesuffering 3y ago
- 7speter 3y agoI don’t know if TSMC’s days are numbered, but at best they seem to be fumbling with their 3nm process and it kinda seems like Intel is hitting bottom as far as their process development woes are concerned. Theres an intel 7 refresh up next rumored at the end of the year for consumers, and then they will seemingly take their next swing at gpus with Battlemage and should be ready to release intel 4 consumer products next year. Imho, at least, they seem to have the most exciting stuff coming next year.
- epolanski 3y agoI don't trust any single bit of "it's coming" from Intel after the 7 years delay of their 10nm node and their disappointing 7 one. 7 years is a disaster and a dead sentence in this business. They aren't the new IBM/Oracle yet, but they need a bet that doesn't depend on their manufacturing capabilities.
- brucethemoose2 3y agoYeah. I am excited about Intel's products, but you can't trust their timetables as far as you can throw them.
- Dylan16807 3y agoWell "Intel 7" is the same node as 10nm, so it's one big failure rather than two.
- mycall 3y agoI have a hard time excepting that my 32 thread laptop CPU is a big failure. It is the best I've ever used.
- Dylan16807 3y agoIt's the production process that's a big failure. You should have had a similar CPU generations earlier. And my understanding is that AMD is currently much better when you have a low power budget: https://images.anandtech.com/graphs/graph17641/130507.png https://images.anandtech.com/graphs/graph17641/130507.png https://www.anandtech.com/show/17641/lighter-touch-cpu-power-scaling-13900k-7950x/2 https://www.anandtech.com/show/17641/lighter-touch-cpu-power... (I know those are the desktop versions and that's all AMD has, but by the time you're looking at cooling 50-150 watts the socket isn't very important.) (Also Intel claims their lowest-wattage 8+16 core, by a huge margin, is a desktop model.)
- Workaccount2 3y agoThe US government will backstop intel if need be. Losing the ability/access to manufacture high end silicon is near the top of national security concerns. We can't even do the cutting edge right now, and that's why the chips act was passed.
- ksec 3y agoI am just worried if Stock price continue to fall, Pat may be forced out again by those stupid Board. And if Pat is out, I won’t invest in Intel at all.
- Mandatum 3y agoWe're only just starting to see Arc mature, and their line is looking incredibly impressive given their success with optimizing Cyberpunk. On the CPU front though, it seems they're continuing to lag. I suspect they may have over-invested into GPU's when mining was booming, and the risk isn't paying off. They'll be back, but I don't see them being a major competitor for many more years outside of commodity and Enterprise business. Which, as a company, is a great place to be. But I really don't care.
- porknubbins 3y agoAren’t 12th and 13th gen Intel CPUs going toe to toe with Ryzen 7000s and sometimes with more cores/$ (albeit some efficiency cores)? Thats what I see anyway, I heard AMD is winning over the server market but don’t follow too closely there.
- justinclift 3y agoPretty sure it's only the 13th Gen, not 12th.
- qball 3y agoYes, but the problem with Intel CPUs is that they have to pull significantly more power than AMD does to get that performance- that's kind of why they have E cores and have to provide more P cores per dollar by comparison.
- mbgerring 3y agoIsn’t Intel also spending tons of money building out IFS? Does that also help account for the loss?
- SilverBirch 3y agoThis is why I don't invest in single stocks. It was clear back in 2015/16 that Intel was in quite a bit of trouble but their stock continued a really good run up. Even the board was clearly worried by 2018 and got rid of the CEO on a pretext. I've no real information of how they're doing internally now but they've clearly got some good people and put some better leadership in, but now their stock is languishing... I guess they've just got to white knuckle it through the next 5 years and hope they deliver.
- bfrog 3y agoThe market can be a lagging indicator in this case it seems.
- firstlink 3y agoIntel is a bad joke that just hasn't stopped moving yet.