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> 2) If one were AI-alarmist, is there any profession you can be confident will not be displaced by AI in 10, 15, or even 20 years? Many; Dentists, people that
by m_a_g 3y ago
> 2) If one were AI-alarmist, is there any profession you can be confident will not be displaced by AI in 10, 15, or even 20 years?
Many; Dentists, people that fix your AC, electricians, etc, etc.
- post-it 3y agoIf AI becomes capable of replacing the bulk of software developers, many trades will be replaced by a guy earning a little over minimum wage wearing AR goggles with an AI showing+telling them what to do and correcting their mistakes.
- VLM 3y agoNo need for the AR goggles, just hire day labor to work for a skilled tradesman as a labor multiplier, or try the old fashioned "here's a mobile phone do what your boss says" In the trades themselves, we've been doing this for centuries... have a master mason supervise the journeyman masons supervising the manual day labor. AI will not be able to compete with experienced personnel. In that field they've already dumbed down the entry level requirement to "pick up a brick and move it there" and it can't go much lower. On the other hand, if I were manufacturing survey equipment I'd worry about AR goggles as the competition.
- sharemywin 3y agoI'm not sure on that. the the pieces seem to be there as far as hands that can manipulate rubix cubes and stuff, catch baseballs, boston dynamics robots agility, other humanoid robots. Do I think white collar jobs go first, yes. also, the dynamics who buys all the stuff that blue collars workers install and build? without a white collar workforce the demand for that goes way down, and the supply of workers goes up. Not saying it's going to happen just think other jobs aren't that far behind.
- AdamN 3y agoDentists are already 3:1 dental hygienists these days and I would expect AI can make that ratio 5:1 or 6:1. Technicians will also be enabled to be more effective with AI (faster diagnoses, remote diagnosis, predictive ordering so you don't have to come back twice with a special part, etc...). Also AI will drive higher reliability of the underlying equipment so the number of technicians needed will be lower.
- foobarian 3y agoHow in the world can AI replace an HVAC person or electrician? Will it braze copper for me somehow?
- imtringued 3y agoThe point is that you won't need an HVAC person, just someone who knows how to braze.
- pbourke 3y agoMedicine, law, accounting, professional engineering. Notice something in common with all of these? With the exception of law, automation has already arrived in all of these fields (to accounting first, 1-2 generations ago) and there are now more people in each field rather than less. Answering my own question: each has a comfortable regulatory moat and competent professional society to defend it.
- hgsgm 3y agoLaw is highly automated at the low end where Rocket and Nolo displaced the "neighborhood lawyer". Same for accounting and TurboTax.
- pcthrowaway 3y agoYeah, but only certified humans can legally practice law. And they're also the group of people with the best ability to prevent changes in that legislation