3 ms·

Indeed. The most liberal metro areas, like NYC, have many fewer firearm death rates per capita than Republican-leaning areas like Florida and Texas. Alas, when

by cs702 4y ago

Indeed. The most liberal metro areas, like NYC, have many fewer firearm death rates per capita than Republican-leaning areas like Florida and Texas. Alas, when faced with facts that disagree with their beliefs, most people will immediately get busy finding plausible explanations that would allow them to continue believing the same things without losing face. "Surely there must be something wrong with these figures," they'll think. It's human nature.

TechBro8615 4y ago
How many of the deaths are concentrated in blue cities within the red states?
- bobthepanda 4y ago
  Blue cities are generally subject to the same gun regs as rural areas in red states; if not, state legislators are more than happy to take away cities’ legal ability to regulate.
  - TechBro8615 4y ago
    Sure. And if gun regulations are the same throughout the state, but per-capita gun homicide is higher in a blue city within a red state, then that implies something about blue governance correlates to higher gun violence. The fact that the difference is likely not due to gun restrictions only strengthens the argument against their effectiveness.
    - bobthepanda 4y ago
      https://www.americanprogress.org/article/gun-violence-in-rural-america/ https://www.americanprogress.org/article/gun-violence-in-rur... * From 2016 to 2020, the two U.S. counties to experience the most gun homicides per capita were rural* (see Figure 1); Phillips County, Arkansas: 55.45 age-adjusted homicides per 100,000 people; Lowndes County, Alabama: 48.36 age-adjusted homicides per 100,000 people* * From 2016 to 2020, 13 of the 20 U.S. counties with the most gun homicides per capita were rural: (see Figure 1); 80 percent of these 20 counties are in states that received an “F” grade for their weak gun laws, according to Giffords Law Center to Prevent Gun Violence’s 2021 annual state scorecard rankings. * In 2020, the total gun death rate for rural communities—when age-adjusted per 100,000 people—was 40 percent higher than it was for large metropolitan areas.
      - itsyaboi 4y ago
        I checked the population of both Phillips County, Arkansas and Lowndes County, Alabama and they have ~15k and ~10k populations, respectively. That's a single digit number of homicides over a 4 year period. The Mark Twain quote concerning statistics would be pertinent here.
        seanmcdirmid 4y ago
        Yes, the numbers were per capita, so urban areas have the advantage of dividing their incidents by their huge population numbers. It’s like playing the lottery, the odds might be better for being a victim of crime in rural areas, but there are alot more people in urban areas who will become a victim (just less chance it will be yourself).
        TechBro8615 4y ago
        I'm not sure it's so simple. You're assuming the same random distribution of victims in each place. But crimes are rarely random, and to the degree that they are crimes of opportunity (mugging, robbing a store, senseless violence) vs. premeditated targeting (revenge, passion, etc), it's possible that urban crimes are "more random" than rural crimes. I don't know that they are, of course, but you'd need to be a bit more careful than simply assuming normally distributed randomness of being victim to a homicide.
        seanmcdirmid 4y ago
        No, cities are even less dangerous for most people by that measure. Most people in cities aren’t in gang, nor are they dealing drugs or picking up hookers on the Highway. This is a well known issue, even in “dangerous” cities like St. Louis, homicide victims are often related to the perpetrators in some way (eg in an opposing gang). Violent crime victims are also more likely to be poor (this is true in rural areas as well).
        itsyaboi 4y ago
        > In 2020, the total gun death rate for rural communities—when age-adjusted per 100,000 people—was 40 percent higher than it was for large metropolitan areas. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Base_rate_fallacy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Base_rate_fallacy
    - Ancapistani 4y ago
      > that implies something about blue governance correlates to higher gun violence I disagree. I believe it implies that population density is correlated with gun deaths. FWIW, I’m as pro-gun as a person can be. While I allow for the idea that restrictions may lead to greater gun violence (not “gun deaths”, but “gun violence”), the evidence I’ve seen for that seems to account for only a very small portion of the difference. My (untested) belief is that people who are often on in a position where they cannot contact others for help develop a tendency to solve problems (real or perceived) themselves. In other words, independence breeds self-reliance. Contrast that with people who have possibly literally never been in a situation where if they screamed for help no one would be able to hear them. It makes total sense to me that “just call the police” would be their viewpoint; it’s consistent with their lived experience. When you live somewhere police response is a half hour or more - even assuming you’re able to contact them - owning and carrying a firearm is far more reasonable.
- pixl97 4y ago
  Gun deaths are highly correlated with poverty... Turns out red states have a lot of poverty.
  - Freedom2 4y ago
    Any data to back up this claim?
    - pixl97 4y ago
      https://cepr.net/poverty-correlates-with-the-recent-increase-in-gun-violence/ https://cepr.net/poverty-correlates-with-the-recent-increase... https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2021-11-23/study-youth-in-poor-areas-more-likely-to-die-from-gun-violence https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2021-11-23/... https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/gun-homicide-linked-to-poor-social-mobility/ https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/gun-homicide-link...
      - Freedom2 4y ago
        Thanks. Any alternative sources, to ensure a balanced discussion?
        retrocryptid 4y ago
        Are you asking for statistics from the NRA?
        orwin 4y ago
        I mean, one article is based on a PLOS study, I think the discussion already happened.
verdverm 4y ago
You are also doing shallow reading as well, for the sake of your priors. The title is clickbait and does not align with the main premise of the author, thanks editors! > The reasons for these disparities go beyond modern policy differences and extend back to events that predate not only the American party system but the advent of shotguns, revolvers, ammunition cartridges, breach-loaded rifles and the American republic itself. The geography of gun violence — and public and elite ideas about how it should be addressed — is the result of differences at once regional, cultural and historical. Once you understand how the country was colonized — and by whom — a number of insights into the problem are revealed.

by cs702 4y ago

TechBro8615 4y ago

How many of the deaths are concentrated in blue cities within the red states?

bobthepanda 4y ago
Blue cities are generally subject to the same gun regs as rural areas in red states; if not, state legislators are more than happy to take away cities’ legal ability to regulate.
- TechBro8615 4y ago
  Sure. And if gun regulations are the same throughout the state, but per-capita gun homicide is higher in a blue city within a red state, then that implies something about blue governance correlates to higher gun violence. The fact that the difference is likely not due to gun restrictions only strengthens the argument against their effectiveness.
  - bobthepanda 4y ago
    https://www.americanprogress.org/article/gun-violence-in-rural-america/ https://www.americanprogress.org/article/gun-violence-in-rur... * From 2016 to 2020, the two U.S. counties to experience the most gun homicides per capita were rural* (see Figure 1); Phillips County, Arkansas: 55.45 age-adjusted homicides per 100,000 people; Lowndes County, Alabama: 48.36 age-adjusted homicides per 100,000 people* * From 2016 to 2020, 13 of the 20 U.S. counties with the most gun homicides per capita were rural: (see Figure 1); 80 percent of these 20 counties are in states that received an “F” grade for their weak gun laws, according to Giffords Law Center to Prevent Gun Violence’s 2021 annual state scorecard rankings. * In 2020, the total gun death rate for rural communities—when age-adjusted per 100,000 people—was 40 percent higher than it was for large metropolitan areas.
    - itsyaboi 4y ago
      I checked the population of both Phillips County, Arkansas and Lowndes County, Alabama and they have ~15k and ~10k populations, respectively. That's a single digit number of homicides over a 4 year period. The Mark Twain quote concerning statistics would be pertinent here.
      - seanmcdirmid 4y ago
        Yes, the numbers were per capita, so urban areas have the advantage of dividing their incidents by their huge population numbers. It’s like playing the lottery, the odds might be better for being a victim of crime in rural areas, but there are alot more people in urban areas who will become a victim (just less chance it will be yourself).
        TechBro8615 4y ago
        I'm not sure it's so simple. You're assuming the same random distribution of victims in each place. But crimes are rarely random, and to the degree that they are crimes of opportunity (mugging, robbing a store, senseless violence) vs. premeditated targeting (revenge, passion, etc), it's possible that urban crimes are "more random" than rural crimes. I don't know that they are, of course, but you'd need to be a bit more careful than simply assuming normally distributed randomness of being victim to a homicide.
        seanmcdirmid 4y ago
        No, cities are even less dangerous for most people by that measure. Most people in cities aren’t in gang, nor are they dealing drugs or picking up hookers on the Highway. This is a well known issue, even in “dangerous” cities like St. Louis, homicide victims are often related to the perpetrators in some way (eg in an opposing gang). Violent crime victims are also more likely to be poor (this is true in rural areas as well).
        itsyaboi 4y ago
        > In 2020, the total gun death rate for rural communities—when age-adjusted per 100,000 people—was 40 percent higher than it was for large metropolitan areas. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Base_rate_fallacy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Base_rate_fallacy
  - Ancapistani 4y ago
    > that implies something about blue governance correlates to higher gun violence I disagree. I believe it implies that population density is correlated with gun deaths. FWIW, I’m as pro-gun as a person can be. While I allow for the idea that restrictions may lead to greater gun violence (not “gun deaths”, but “gun violence”), the evidence I’ve seen for that seems to account for only a very small portion of the difference. My (untested) belief is that people who are often on in a position where they cannot contact others for help develop a tendency to solve problems (real or perceived) themselves. In other words, independence breeds self-reliance. Contrast that with people who have possibly literally never been in a situation where if they screamed for help no one would be able to hear them. It makes total sense to me that “just call the police” would be their viewpoint; it’s consistent with their lived experience. When you live somewhere police response is a half hour or more - even assuming you’re able to contact them - owning and carrying a firearm is far more reasonable.
pixl97 4y ago
Gun deaths are highly correlated with poverty... Turns out red states have a lot of poverty.
- Freedom2 4y ago
  Any data to back up this claim?
  - pixl97 4y ago
    https://cepr.net/poverty-correlates-with-the-recent-increase-in-gun-violence/ https://cepr.net/poverty-correlates-with-the-recent-increase... https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2021-11-23/study-youth-in-poor-areas-more-likely-to-die-from-gun-violence https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2021-11-23/... https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/gun-homicide-linked-to-poor-social-mobility/ https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/gun-homicide-link...
    - Freedom2 4y ago
      Thanks. Any alternative sources, to ensure a balanced discussion?
      - retrocryptid 4y ago
        Are you asking for statistics from the NRA?
      - orwin 4y ago
        I mean, one article is based on a PLOS study, I think the discussion already happened.

verdverm 4y ago

You are also doing shallow reading as well, for the sake of your priors. The title is clickbait and does not align with the main premise of the author, thanks editors! > The reasons for these disparities go beyond modern policy differences and extend back to events that predate not only the American party system but the advent of shotguns, revolvers, ammunition cartridges, breach-loaded rifles and the American republic itself. The geography of gun violence — and public and elite ideas about how it should be addressed — is the result of differences at once regional, cultural and historical. Once you understand how the country was colonized — and by whom — a number of insights into the problem are revealed.