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Cost of living is weird, since it ignores the fact that shopping on Amazon costs the same everywhere. I imagine it'd result in feeling like physical goods are i
by cschneid 3y ago
Cost of living is weird, since it ignores the fact that shopping on Amazon costs the same everywhere. I imagine it'd result in feeling like physical goods are incredibly cheap vs anything that requires local labor (restaurants, private schools, construction, medical, etc).
Buying a big TV or a new iphone would be a lower % of total salary since those wouldn't scale w/ the location. And then you'd turn around and pay $20 for a cocktail. But what do I know, I live middle of the country :)
- ArtemZ 3y agoI spend most of my salary (130k$) on rent, food and daycare for my kid, not Amazon purchases. And 130k doesn't feel like a lot anymore even though I live in Ohio in order to reduce my expenses.
- hanoz 3y agoAll around the western world, money printing to prop up the house price bubble is finally reaching breaking point, with housing costs completely decoupling from fundamentals, and inflation breaching the banks and flooding into consumer pricing.
- govolckurself 3y agoWhat? No, there simply isn't enough housing. Prices don't always go up simply because of an increase in the money supply (which is also something you can measure).
- exclusiv 3y agoExactly. Not enough supply. Build costs exorbitant. There will not be some magical supply out of nowhere nor a big drop in build costs. So thus prices, IMO, in most major metros are connected to fundamentals. If housing was not connected to fundamentals, home sale prices would have been exposed and taken a nose dive with the movement in interest rates. People aren't getting any easy money. They are still buying.
- dragonwriter 3y ago> If housing was not connected to fundamentals, home sale prices would have been exposed and taken a nose dive with the movement in interest rates. But prices have fallen (and even more, volume, has fallen, whether because there are fewer buyers are because sellers are deferring because of the fall in prices). This is clear in national figures, and hot metros that at some other times have defied downward real estate trends also show it.
- exclusiv 3y agoIf you mean they have fallen from the peak of May 2022 you would be right. But that's not the story. And that has no bearing on fundamentals. Just because there has been a price movement doesn't mean it got disconnected from fundamentals. Price came off peak? Ok. Well cost of money also ramped up disproportionately to that. Prices have been resilient and when rates go the other way, they will go even higher IMO. Prices are still, on median, 100k higher NOW over pre-pandemic. That's 33% more in just a few years. Sale to list prices is still at 98.9%. Off the peak of 103.1% but money was WAY cheaper then. March 2020 median home price was $300k. March 2023.... $400k. [1] March 2020 loans were about 3.5%. March 2023.... 6.5%. It costs a shit ton more to service a loan now, inventory is down, yet prices are only 30k off the peak. Is everyone buying a house with these interest rates a moron? No they aren't. Are banks approving risky loans now? No they aren't. Volume is irrelevant when we are talking about fundamentals. Sellers are a key part of that. If they pull inventory due to the numerous factors in the housing market and the economy, then the prices are what they are. There is no shadowy hand now keeping home prices higher over their fundamentals, nor a shadowy hand telling the homeowners to not list their home. This is the market at work; and its been resilient with what is going on. And to my point, if you couple supply and demand with the state of affairs and you look at build cost you'll see that current inventory is priced at or better than any fundamental analysis would suggest. And not overpriced. I ONLY buy on build/replacement cost. Sure some areas went crazy, but if you are disconnected from build costs, you are rolling the dice and I highly recommend you don't do that unless you love the house so much you don't care what happens. But by and large, housing prices are NOT disconnected from replacement costs. They are still cheaper. If you can buy a "used" house for 300k. Or build a new house for 350k (+6-12 months of your time and carrying costs on the housing you are currently at and potential unexpected costs), then where is the disconnect? I don't see it. If housing WAS disconnected from the fundamentals, then you'd simply see a shit ton more building going on and with more inventory and less buyers and affordability due to interest rate hikes, price would drop a lot. That's not the case. There has not been a meaningful price drop with the interest rate hikes, we just have less buyers on average, and about 4% less on the sales price to list. People waiting on the sidelines in most markets aren't going to be happy as inflation keeps on trucking, build costs are out of control, and inventory is low. Rent will go up. "Year-over-year rental price growth will rise from 5.8%, as of June 2022, to 8.4% as of May 2023, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas forecast that uses data from the federal government’s consumer price index" You used to be able to just stash cash and then when interest rates jack up you could get a real deal. No more. Housing is an inflation hedge and the market has been pumped up. When the pivot occurs and cheaper money returns because the asset owners would rather have inflation than deflation, the housing market will go even higher IMO. 30T debt and 180+T in unfunded liabilities along with a pissed off world that has gotten drunk off cheap USD leaves no choice but to print in overdrive. I won't be holding USD or more than retirement money in the stock market. I'll be primarily in RE and private companies. If you are big on stocks, you may still do ok - we've seen that we can print and not cause extreme inflation, by pushing dollars into equities. But I think that game will end as it's further exposed and money rotates out. [1] https://www.redfin.com/us-housing-market https://www.redfin.com/us-housing-market
- exclusiv 3y ago> housing costs completely decoupling from fundamentals, Not true in most markets. Compare to build/replacement costs. In a high inflation environment with 30+ trillion in national debt and 186 trillion in unfunded liabilities, I'll take my chances with hard assets that are connected to fundamentals like housing. They WILL pivot and print in overdrive. There is no way out at this point. And not just the US, the world cannot handle higher interest rates which causes more demand for the dollar. The entire world is jacked up on eurodollar debt that is not sustainable. And those with the assets will gladly choose inflation over deflation. "Inflation is transitory". "Banks are fine" We're led by morons, shills and thieves.
- pydry 3y ago>The entire world is jacked up on eurodollar debt that is not sustainable 10 years ago this was a far bigger deal as the western game was the only one in town. Nowadays nonaligned countries can pivot to the Russia/China axis and still get resources and manufactured goods.
- exclusiv 3y agoVery few countries want to trade in the currencies of Russia or China. But that's besides my point. Getting resources and manufactured goods has nothing to do with my statement about sustainability. Debt to GDP of 338% is not sustainable [1]. It doesn't matter if countries can get resources and manufactured goods. That's like saying - well I have 3X my salary in debt but it's ok... I can buy goods on Amazon.... on more credit, with a higher rate... and still be fine. No you can't. There's about 20 trillion in US denominated debt / eurodollar debt [2] and 65 trillion in unrecorded debt overseas [2]. In order to service US denominated debt, you have to swap your currency to get USD. This is a major problem when you already need to keep printing to service your own unsustainable debt (> 300% debt to gdp), inflation rips on goods and materials you need and tax revenues drop in an economic downturn. When interest rates go up, it squeezes you. Everyone kept rolling debt over in a debt drunk binge fest for decades as it kept getting cheaper and they have been feeling major pain from it going the other way. [1] https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2023/02/global-debt-2022-and-other-economy-stories-february-2023/#:~:text=The%20ratio%20of%20global%20debt,points%20to%20250%25%20of%20GDP https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2023/02/global-debt-2022-and-.... [2] https://www.bruegel.org/comment/euro-dollar-parity-beyond-symbolism https://www.bruegel.org/comment/euro-dollar-parity-beyond-sy... [3] https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2023/01/65-trillion-debt-bank-financial-system-economic/ https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2023/01/65-trillion-debt-bank...
- wahnfrieden 3y agoWhat’s rent in Ohio
- jmoak3 3y agohttps://www.zumper.com/rent-research/cleveland-oh https://www.zumper.com/rent-research/cleveland-oh https://www.zumper.com/rent-research/cincinnati-oh https://www.zumper.com/rent-research/cincinnati-oh I really like zumper for digestible rent data over time for a given city
- throwaway8503 3y agoFrom the given link: As of April 2023, the average rent for a 1-bedroom apartment in Cleveland, OH is $1,136. This is a 7% decrease compared to the previous year.
- wizofaus 3y agoWhat's that as a fraction of median income? A brief search seems to suggest it's on the high side, over 40% at any rate.
- dsfyu404ed 3y agoAnd secondly is Cleveland a city that has absorbed its suburbs over the past century or is Cleveland basically just "downtown" as that will affect the average.
- robbywashere_ 3y ago$1,136 for Cleveland ?!
- ArtemZ 3y agoI pay $1,600 for a 3bd house in Lakewood
- throwaway6734 3y agoHow? Does that include high retirement account savings or something else?
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- jkubicek 3y agoI think this is exactly right, and explains why staunchly middle-income suburbs around San Francisco are filled with luxury cars. An $80k car feels relatively cheap when your mortgage is $1.5mm.
- shmatt 3y agoThere are "tricks" in expensive cities to look for as much nation-wide pricing as possible Amazon and Walmart online, Whole Foods and Trader Joes in person. Doctors and drugs who are in-network for insurance would be the same cost anywhere in the US It really is mostly childcare and housing that really kills you in the expensive cities
- JumpCrisscross 3y ago> childcare and housing that really kills you in the expensive cities Cost of influence, too. Granted, it’s not something most in tech think about.
- woooooo 3y agoWhat do you mean by 'cost of influence'? If I don't want influence, is it optional?
- JumpCrisscross 3y ago> What do you mean by 'cost of influence'? If I don't want influence, is it optional? Every political system has patrician and plebeian tracks. In America, the former can be bought (versus solely inherited). Being a politically-active patrician in New York involves an expensive list of patronage. That’s where the power players are, and that’s where you’ll cut casual deals. It’s optional. And it’s different from civic responsibility. But unless you think the status quo is hunky dory, you’re going to want to change things, and the cost of access varies geographically.
- satvikpendem 3y agoThe people who can influence aren't making merely 300k, and they certainly aren't caring much about the cost of their influence.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- api 3y agoIt’s almost all real estate cost. I’ve lived in very expensive cities (Boston, Los Angeles) and now live in a moderately priced one (Cincinnati) and most things cost about the same except real estate. Gas (which I don’t use as I have an EV) is a bit more in California due to taxes but food, clothing, services, gadgets, utilities, etc are almost the same. If I were a 20-something today I’d stay away from high cost cities. Real estate eats everything. I might consider living in such places for a little while to build network but would bug out after maybe two years. For example I’d say if you live in SF/SV and are approaching 30 and making under 300k you should leave.
- ketzo 3y agoBut… what if you really like living in SF/SV? :( It’s just such a bummer that the absolute worst financial decision of my life is to live in my favorite place in the world. I get it, it’s how the world works, but it sucks to choose between daily happiness and financial security.
- linguae 3y agoI sympathize with you as a lifelong Californian (grew up in Sacramento, educated in San Luis Obispo and Santa Cruz, working in Silicon Valley). I love the desirable coastal parts of California (basically anything from Sonoma County all the way down to San Diego). If money weren't an object, I'd own a home in either Aptos or Pacific Grove. I currently rent in Capitola, and it's the best place I've lived in California. I love the tranquility of the town while having somewhat easy access to Silicon Valley and its amenities and opportunities. However, I simply don't make enough money to purchase a home near the coast unless I move to Humboldt or Del Norte counties, which are far from any urban centers. Unfortunately with the exception of Sacramento (which is getting pricey as of late) California doesn't have a lot of middle ground between its really desirable yet expensive places and places that are affordable but less desirable. The Sacramento area seems like a reasonable compromise for me. I can comfortably afford Fresno's and Bakersfield's nicest suburbs, but I don't know if I'd be happy in those cities. Much of the rest of the state is quite isolated from major metro areas; this has implications regarding educational opportunities for children and health care quality and availability. I don't see myself settling down and raising a family in many of California's more isolated areas due to this, though it may be a nice adventure visiting these isolated areas for recreation. I don't know what I'm going to end up doing....maybe I'll end up marrying a woman from Vermont and end up moving there in a few years XD. But I completely sympathize with you and the crazy housing market we're contending with.
- paulpauper 3y agoLabor is a huge expense. it explains why technology has not put a dent in tuition, plumbing, hvac, dental implants costs, etc. Even cars are so expensive even though they are mass produced. The assembly line at best only applies to relatively small part of economy, and non-manufacturing costs like advertising are major contributors to inflation even for non-labor intensive things.
- sroussey 3y agoObviously in the middle of the country if you think high end cocktails only cost $20! Sigh…
- ptero 3y agoOK, how much are they? Honest question, I want (and afraid) to be enlightened.
- sroussey 3y ago25-29. Not that much more. But the $20 price has been crossed by a large group in the last year.
- whamlastxmas 3y agoIn Seattle a cocktail at nice place is about $20. But add “living wage” surcharge and tax and tip and it’s basically $30 Nice meaning trendy and cute and hipster. Maybe other person “nice” as in a meal costs $200
- yunohn 3y ago> Cost of living is weird, since it ignores the fact that shopping on Amazon costs the same everywhere This is because most goods are manufactured in Asia and imported. They differ in online retail price due to local/import taxes and in offline price due to labor/rent costs. Hence, if you purchase goods online, the price remains mostly the same within the same country. It's an important exercise to consider whether globalised cheap labor is fair to the laborers, given that the profits of their labor are absorbed by the destination high-CoL market.