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I don’t understand why it can’t be both: SF is degenerating when it comes to random crime AND this murder wasn’t by some random thug. I remember reading blog a

I don’t understand why it can’t be both: SF is degenerating when it comes to random crime AND this murder wasn’t by some random thug. I remember reading blog after blog on HN about people moving out of SF specifically for what the city had become.

asveikau 3y ago
The nature of the random crime is very different from violent crime. People were saying violent crime is the issue, and here was the proof, the turning point. All demonstrably false. You point out the falsity and people call you naive and say it's the crime stats that are wrong, not their take. Their version is reality. As a San Francisco resident, I don't want us wasting time, energy and resources going after the wrong problems.
hn_throwaway_99 3y ago
The issue is not that "it can't be both". I personally think SF does have a serious crime problem that is not being properly addressed. But all the comments, tweets, etc immediately came out blaming SF government and SF's general crime problem specifically for Bob Lee's death. Like they couldn't just wait a teeny bit before forming an opinion after more facts were known? Especially from the crowd that prides itself on "logic" and "data driven" decisions.
- deleted 3y ago
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deleted 3y ago
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klyrs 3y ago
Gravity is a force that attracts two massive objects. While that statement is true, it is completely irrelevant to the Bob Lee case. People using this tragedy as an excuse to flog their favorite scapegoat is disappointing.
- bilbo0s 3y ago
  But kind of expected don't you think? That's why we call them scapegoats right? That's what people who scapegoat others do. Logic, Rational Thought, Dispassionate Analysis, these are all good. And one day, all humans will hopefully practice these disciplines as a matter of course. But right now, the vast majority of people are controlled by their emotions. What do they want to be true? What do they wish to be true? Well, that's what becomes "true". At least, true to them.
tsgagnon 3y ago
I don’t understand why it can’t be both: SF is degenerating when it comes to random crime AND this murder wasn’t by some random thug. Always important to reflect on whether stances like "SF is degenerating" are based on a rational analysis of what is actually happening, versus a more emotional response to stories that might be more like the topic of this post, just with less visibility into the exact circumstances of what happened. Not saying that's likely happening here, but the clear response to the original news was that this was the perfect example of what SF is becoming. How often does that assumption happen?
- tsunamifury 3y ago
  You can appeal to facts and being as rational as you want, but people leave because of how they feel.
  - bilbo0s 3y ago
    I'm not the person you're responding to but I believe the point is that people leaving, doesn't make Bay Area degeneration a fact. Only actual Bay Area degeneration, can make Bay Area degeneration a fact. We need to know who is moving, who is coming in, the economics of the region, geological suitability to population demands, needs of the larger state and nation as it relates to the region. And on and on and on. A blog post about a guy who didn't like the dog poo in the Mission is not nearly enough data to draw the conclusions most of us were drawing. That includes myself. But after the glaring intellectual lapses I engaged in subsequent to the Asian mass shootings and the killing of the crypto exec, the inner me is attempting to reassert rational order by demanding intellectual honesty and logic. All of which is now firmly demonstrating to me that facts don't care about feelings, and will gleefully bite you in the ass if they don't align with the world view or narrative that you're emotionally comfortable with.
    - stanfordkid 3y ago
      Just because an economist wrote a utilitarian calculus saying "this is what makes a city great" doesn't make it so. The logic they use to define "good" ultimately has, at it's deepest core a morality. The morality that "longevity is good" "per capita GDP good", "average happiness good" ... is not an objective fact and has no bearing on how human beings measure greatness. The anesthetized bug-brained western homo-economicus would probably be laughed at by a Spartan warrior ... is one objectively a "better" human than the other?
lern_too_spel 3y ago
It is both, but these are unrelated facts.
virgildotcodes 3y ago
The linked article specifically shows that violent crime in SF is at an all time low, and lower than most other comparably sized cities.
- P_I_Staker 3y ago
  Didn't SF used to be freaking scary prior to blowing up? I've heard people talk about it like they do Miami, Baltimore, Detroit, ect. An undesirable place that washed up people ended up, riddled with crime and violence. I think I might be getting the story wrong, but I recall hearing there used to be much more crime.
  - wombatpm 3y ago
    I never thought the issue was violent crime. More like the constant low-level theft and public urination from the homeless, drug addicts, and mentally ill.
  - xyzelement 3y ago
    I don't understand why Miami is ln your list. It seems clean and thriving.
    - microtherion 3y ago
      According to Wikipedia, Miami has nearly twice the murder rate of San Francisco, and more than three times the rate of New York City: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_cities_by_crime_rate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_cities_b...
      - js2 3y ago
        11.23 per 100K. Tusla has a higher murder rate. You're about as likely to die in an automobile crash nation wide (11.1 per 100K), and in Florida, more likely (15.4 per 100K). https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7126a1.htm https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7126a1.htm https://www.iihs.org/topics/fatality-statistics/detail/state-by-state https://www.iihs.org/topics/fatality-statistics/detail/state... Lies, damned lies, and statistics. We're all afraid of all the wrong things.
sshconnection 3y ago
Love how HN loves data driven analysis, except when analyzing SF violent crime rates.
welder 3y ago
Here's a good explanation of why perceived crime increased at the same time as total crime decreased in SF with COVID. TLDR: the number of crimes decreased, but the total number of people out-and-about decreased even more. The result is if you went out-and-about you were more likely to experience a crime. https://sfstandard.com/perspectives/perspective-why-your-chances-of-being-a-crime-victim-in-s-f-may-be-up-even-when-crime-is-down/ https://sfstandard.com/perspectives/perspective-why-your-cha...
- selfmodruntime 3y ago
  Also, not every crime is reported. Not everything bad is a crime. Swathes of homeless living in tents is not a crime. So is being screamed at by a drugged maniac. You also won‘t see people openly shooting up or defecating on the street in these stats.
digitaltrees 3y ago
Because one topic, homelessness and its contribution to crime is irrelevant to the topic at hand, the tragic murder of a person. Yet there was a rush to link them. Why discuss them together when doing so implies a causal connection between them?

asveikau 3y ago

The nature of the random crime is very different from violent crime. People were saying violent crime is the issue, and here was the proof, the turning point. All demonstrably false. You point out the falsity and people call you naive and say it's the crime stats that are wrong, not their take. Their version is reality. As a San Francisco resident, I don't want us wasting time, energy and resources going after the wrong problems.

hn_throwaway_99 3y ago

The issue is not that "it can't be both". I personally think SF does have a serious crime problem that is not being properly addressed. But all the comments, tweets, etc immediately came out blaming SF government and SF's general crime problem specifically for Bob Lee's death. Like they couldn't just wait a teeny bit before forming an opinion after more facts were known? Especially from the crowd that prides itself on "logic" and "data driven" decisions.

deleted 3y ago
[deleted]

deleted 3y ago

[deleted]

klyrs 3y ago

Gravity is a force that attracts two massive objects. While that statement is true, it is completely irrelevant to the Bob Lee case. People using this tragedy as an excuse to flog their favorite scapegoat is disappointing.

bilbo0s 3y ago
But kind of expected don't you think? That's why we call them scapegoats right? That's what people who scapegoat others do. Logic, Rational Thought, Dispassionate Analysis, these are all good. And one day, all humans will hopefully practice these disciplines as a matter of course. But right now, the vast majority of people are controlled by their emotions. What do they want to be true? What do they wish to be true? Well, that's what becomes "true". At least, true to them.

tsgagnon 3y ago

I don’t understand why it can’t be both: SF is degenerating when it comes to random crime AND this murder wasn’t by some random thug. Always important to reflect on whether stances like "SF is degenerating" are based on a rational analysis of what is actually happening, versus a more emotional response to stories that might be more like the topic of this post, just with less visibility into the exact circumstances of what happened. Not saying that's likely happening here, but the clear response to the original news was that this was the perfect example of what SF is becoming. How often does that assumption happen?

tsunamifury 3y ago
You can appeal to facts and being as rational as you want, but people leave because of how they feel.
- bilbo0s 3y ago
  I'm not the person you're responding to but I believe the point is that people leaving, doesn't make Bay Area degeneration a fact. Only actual Bay Area degeneration, can make Bay Area degeneration a fact. We need to know who is moving, who is coming in, the economics of the region, geological suitability to population demands, needs of the larger state and nation as it relates to the region. And on and on and on. A blog post about a guy who didn't like the dog poo in the Mission is not nearly enough data to draw the conclusions most of us were drawing. That includes myself. But after the glaring intellectual lapses I engaged in subsequent to the Asian mass shootings and the killing of the crypto exec, the inner me is attempting to reassert rational order by demanding intellectual honesty and logic. All of which is now firmly demonstrating to me that facts don't care about feelings, and will gleefully bite you in the ass if they don't align with the world view or narrative that you're emotionally comfortable with.
  - stanfordkid 3y ago
    Just because an economist wrote a utilitarian calculus saying "this is what makes a city great" doesn't make it so. The logic they use to define "good" ultimately has, at it's deepest core a morality. The morality that "longevity is good" "per capita GDP good", "average happiness good" ... is not an objective fact and has no bearing on how human beings measure greatness. The anesthetized bug-brained western homo-economicus would probably be laughed at by a Spartan warrior ... is one objectively a "better" human than the other?

lern_too_spel 3y ago

It is both, but these are unrelated facts.

virgildotcodes 3y ago

The linked article specifically shows that violent crime in SF is at an all time low, and lower than most other comparably sized cities.

P_I_Staker 3y ago
Didn't SF used to be freaking scary prior to blowing up? I've heard people talk about it like they do Miami, Baltimore, Detroit, ect. An undesirable place that washed up people ended up, riddled with crime and violence. I think I might be getting the story wrong, but I recall hearing there used to be much more crime.
- wombatpm 3y ago
  I never thought the issue was violent crime. More like the constant low-level theft and public urination from the homeless, drug addicts, and mentally ill.
- xyzelement 3y ago
  I don't understand why Miami is ln your list. It seems clean and thriving.
  - microtherion 3y ago
    According to Wikipedia, Miami has nearly twice the murder rate of San Francisco, and more than three times the rate of New York City: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_cities_by_crime_rate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_cities_b...
    - js2 3y ago
      11.23 per 100K. Tusla has a higher murder rate. You're about as likely to die in an automobile crash nation wide (11.1 per 100K), and in Florida, more likely (15.4 per 100K). https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7126a1.htm https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7126a1.htm https://www.iihs.org/topics/fatality-statistics/detail/state-by-state https://www.iihs.org/topics/fatality-statistics/detail/state... Lies, damned lies, and statistics. We're all afraid of all the wrong things.

sshconnection 3y ago

Love how HN loves data driven analysis, except when analyzing SF violent crime rates.

welder 3y ago

Here's a good explanation of why perceived crime increased at the same time as total crime decreased in SF with COVID. TLDR: the number of crimes decreased, but the total number of people out-and-about decreased even more. The result is if you went out-and-about you were more likely to experience a crime. https://sfstandard.com/perspectives/perspective-why-your-chances-of-being-a-crime-victim-in-s-f-may-be-up-even-when-crime-is-down/ https://sfstandard.com/perspectives/perspective-why-your-cha...

selfmodruntime 3y ago
Also, not every crime is reported. Not everything bad is a crime. Swathes of homeless living in tents is not a crime. So is being screamed at by a drugged maniac. You also won‘t see people openly shooting up or defecating on the street in these stats.

digitaltrees 3y ago

Because one topic, homelessness and its contribution to crime is irrelevant to the topic at hand, the tragic murder of a person. Yet there was a rush to link them. Why discuss them together when doing so implies a causal connection between them?