6 ms·

1-in-1000 year flooding in South Florida

47 points by graderjs 4y ago

jmclnx 4y ago
Sorry for the people there, hope they get by. But the way we are treating this world, FL may have a 1 on 20 million year flooding event in about 100 years. I have many friends who moved down to FL and bought a house. They love it there but when they ask me to move I say no-way. First I like winter and the other I think buying property there is like tossing $ out the window. I believe your heirs (children) will not benefit from your investment. Sadly right now, I am of the opinion we will blow right by 2C, nevermind keeping at 1.5C :( My soon to be bumber-sticker" "Why move to FL when FL is coming here".
- bearjaws 4y ago
  I find it very interesting that throughout the internet, the problem of rising sea levels & climate change is seen as exclusively a Florida problem. If one thing goes wrong with Florida's weather, it is seen as abandon ship, meanwhile in California, Arizona, Tornado Alley, Texas, New York, "once in 100" year events have happened every year for the last decade... Climate change is coming for everyone, over two billion people[1] live at sea-level. Its clear to me at this point we're all going to be impacted substantially and yet somehow people keep talking about Florida as if we "fix FLorida" and everything magically gets better. It almost seems like a scapegoat for other states climate issues. [1]: https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.95.24.14009 https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.95.24.14009
  - lanstin 4y ago
    Bangladesh and Florida are two of the most vulnerable areas. Not only is Florida likely to be inundated entirely by a three meter rise, it is mostly fairly porous sandstone so if you want to build walls around your cities, they are super expensive and deep. Also Florida seems to be trying to increase the root causes of their own demise, so it’s sort of different than watching innocent people struck by tragedy; it’s people getting hurt by their own actions. More drama.
- dfxm12 4y ago
  NSF research from 2.5 years ago agrees that 1-in-X year flooding is becoming more frequent: https://beta.nsf.gov/news/once-lifetime-floods-become-regular-occurrences https://beta.nsf.gov/news/once-lifetime-floods-become-regula...
kgermino 4y ago
It's crazy how many videos and pictures I'm seeing of people driving in those flood waters. I get that it's a very flat area but if the water is near your hood you're: 1. Deep enough that you can't see obstacles in the water 2. Right on the edge of flooding your intake and destroying your engine (which I suppose won't matter if the water's that high - your car is destroyed anyway) 3. Going to get pushed over by almost _any_ current (3) especially seems extremely dangerous. That much water is going to drain somewhere and it would be easy to accidentally move into flowing water and get sucked along by the current.
- briffle 4y ago
  8-12 inches of moving water can float most vehicles away.
  - mcculley 4y ago
    And what most don't realize is that cars will float and then sink. They will float and lose traction, becoming immobile, then they start taking on water and sink back down, ruined.
- TheRealPomax 4y ago
  Yeah, but then you remember that this is Florida.
  - graderjs 4y ago
    What about the dogs, i mean gators, i mean dogs?
    - stronglikedan 4y ago
      Regarding gators, just get a dog that's slower than you.
- dsfyu404ed 4y ago
  If this wasn't normal-ish people wouldn't be going out in it. Like don't you think the lazy southerner the white collar internet loves to stereotype would call out of work at the drop of a hat? Floods (usually flash floods or hurricane related floods) in Florida happens many times a year, just not over such a wide area or at this time in the season. To them it's no different than people in Boston driving in 6-8" of snow (to those not aware, driving in 8" of snow in a state that gets snow and has plows implies a 2ft+ storm). The reason this is a 1:1000 event is because it doesn't usually happen in April. It would be like people in Boston commuting in snow in May. Is there a discussion to be had about the role and responsibility of humans in climate change makign these events more frequent? Of course. But that is completely tangential to the point I am trying to make which is that the hand wringing about "omg I can't believe they're going out in that" is just that, hand wringing.
aristus 4y ago
I remember a 20-odd inches rainstorm in Lauderdale in the early 2000's. I accidentally drove a rental car into a "puddle" that swallowed the car up to the windows. Instantly cracked the engine block.
- Arrath 4y ago
  Lucky it was a rental!
  - morkalork 4y ago
    When Uhaul asks if you want to take the extra $15 optional insurance, always say yes. The location I used to use had printed off photos of trashed vehicles posted behind the desk to emphasize why.
    - anonymouskimmer 4y ago
      As long as there are no waivers for driver stupidity.
    - avalys 4y ago
      The reason they printed off the photos is that damage like that happens so rarely, the insurance is a huge profit center for them. That’s why they push you to buy it.
      - morkalork 4y ago
        Sure, it absolutely is for them. But it's such a marginal increase in cost for the end-user vs a small probability of having to pay the whole amount in damages. They win because they're the ones handling thousands of rentals. Unfortunately as an end-user, you are unlikely to be in the position to say "well if I take 1,000 trips and skip the insurance, I'll still come out ahead even I'm unlucky and have an accident".
    - dwater 4y ago
      For car rentals you're better off having a credit card that provides free coverage, which is pretty common on Gold and Platinum level cards.
pwinkeler 4y ago
Slight correct to meteorologist's comment. Instead of “This amount of rain in a 24-hour period is incredibly rare for South Florida,” it should have stated “This amount of rain in a 24-hour period *WAS* incredibly rare for South Florida,”
- a3w 4y ago
  As was reported last summer, which set heat records in some countries in the northern hemisphere: welcome to the coolest summer of your lives. From now on.
- valarauko 4y ago
  Frequentist vs Bayesian
scythe 4y ago
The article says 1-in-1000-year rainfall in South Florida. Flooding of similar magnitude is more common due to storm surge (wind blowing the ocean ashore). The title should be corrected to reflect the difference. More than a foot of rain fell in a day. For a sense of scale, that's more than half of the mean rainfall that San Francisco gets in a year. For climate change projections I always suggest people check the website: http://crt-climate-explorer.nemac.org/ http://crt-climate-explorer.nemac.org/
gmuslera 4y ago
The new normal is that 1-in-1000 year extreme weather events seem to be happening every few years.
- a3w 4y ago
  On a log scale, increase frequency by one. No idea if log base 10 or base e, though, but seems to be 10 for infrequent things, e for things that happen often.
- grecy 4y ago
  Just like financial crashes
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- crote 4y ago
  Turns out your 1-in-1000-year numbers based on historical weather data are not that accurate anymore when the climate significantly changes. Who would've thought!
brucethemoose2 4y ago
This is the "dry season" in Florida (or at least in the Tampa Bay area). Normally we don't get any rain this time of year, which is why I think they can call this is a "1-in-1000" year event: not because the scale of flooding is so unheard of, but because extreme flooding in mid April is really bizzare. I don't mean to undermine the severity of the situation, but I think the headline is misleading, as most probably think of south Florida as a big swamp with rain all year round.
- 0zemp1c 4y ago
  While the 25.91-inch rainfall total recorded in Fort Lauderdale is still preliminary, if it gets confirmed, it will be the greatest 24-hour precipitation total recorded in the state. Currently, the record stands at 23.28 inches, which was reported in Key West on Nov. 11, 1980. https://www.accuweather.com/en/severe-weather/state-of-emergency-declared-in-fort-lauderdale-as-heavy-rain-drenches-south-florida/1511926 https://www.accuweather.com/en/severe-weather/state-of-emerg... so this seems like a record regardless of month
  - brucethemoose2 4y ago
    Well then, that just makes it all the more extreme. It would be like getting a record high in the late fall.
- lanza 4y ago
  I've lived in Florida over 30 years. Mostly in the South, but also for stints in central and northern. I've literally never heard of a "dry season." yay-it's-not-raining-every-single-day-and-the-grass-isn't-flooded-season sure.
  - detourdog 4y ago
    The swamp outside of Gainesville I lived in definitely had a dryer season where it was passable on foot.
    - 4y ago
just_steve_h 4y ago
This is extreme. Really extreme. This is about one-third of Fort Lauderdale’ as average ANNUAL rainfall, coming in about 8 hours.
BigCryo 4y ago
Obviously due to climate change
photochemsyn 4y ago
Fossil fueled global warming in a nutshell: (1) A century of extremely heavy fossil fuel use by a rapidly growing human population increases CO2 levels with the most effect seen at about 12 km height in the atmosphere where the added CO2 absorbs infrared radiation that otherwise would have escaped to space. The re-radiated infrared warms the atmosphere a little bit (this is only about 1/3 of the overall effect, however). Some other gases (CH4, N2O etc.) have minor additive effects, but it's the fossil CO2 which is the primary driver. (2) This warming increases the evaporation/precipitation ratio such that atmospheric water vapor increases. This water vapor may be clear-air or clouds, but overall it boosts the warming rate by about twice the CO2 effect (2/3 of overall effect). However, if you dropped atmospheric CO2, water vapor equilibrates quickly, i.e. weeks/months at most. But, you end up with a good deal more water vapor in the atmosphere (+10% IIRC?). That's just the warming, no big deal it might seem. However, the Earth is still tilted on its axis, we still get seasons, we get mid-latitude storm fronts sweeping through, and if a polar cold front hits a body of air that has higher than usual water vapor content, then you get extra precipitation, driving flooding rates higher. On the other hand, if you have clear-air water vapor, and it sits in place, you can get a massive heat wave. This is why, depending on region and season and oceanic fluctuations, the severity of droughts and floods tends to increase over time as the planet warms. It's not going away, and will get worse for the next 100 years at least, so, maybe build homes that can float? Moored to concrete pilings, say. Also, don't live in flood zones, or in low-lying coastal areas. And, stop burning fossil fuels for energy so it doesn't get even worse than it already will be.
- realworldperson 4y ago
  [dead]
- scottLobster 4y ago
  A lot of retirees who bought beach houses will be disappointed. Sea level rise is already being priced into real estate https://www.rocketmortgage.com/learn/climate-change-real-estate-prices https://www.rocketmortgage.com/learn/climate-change-real-est... "A titled “Disaster on the Horizon: The Price Effect of Sea Level Rise” published by the University of Colorado identified a drop in sales in high-risk coastal areas starting in 2013. The study also states that, on average, homes near sea level rise sold for 7% less than other comparable homes. This downward trend strands in contrast to increased sales prices in nearby lower-risk areas. As sea levels continue to rise, this trend may continue. Wealthier homeowners will be able to move to lower-risk areas, while people with lower incomes will be subject to higher risks of flooding. Fewer Home Sales In High-Risk Areas In addition to decreased sales prices, there are also fewer homes being sold in coastal high-risk areas. It should come as no surprise that people don’t want to live in areas where they feel threatened by extreme weather and wildfires. Even if being close to the woods or the ocean is a huge plus, no one wants their home to be threatened by a fire or flood. With fewer homes being purchased in these areas, those who want to sell may have a harder time. The decrease in sales prices and home sales could be a housing market indicator for the future of coastal home sales."
scottLobster 4y ago
I remember reading a bunch of "huh, that's weird, the water's super warm but it's been a pretty mild hurricane season" columns last year. Maybe the result of warm water past a certain point is less more intense hurricanes and more stuff like this. Also, as a millennial in his mid-30s, all these "once in a <long ass amount of time>" events happening just in my adult life are starting to lose their punch. Given the severity of the yield curve inversion I'm expecting a "once in a century" recession/depression in the next five years, and given the number of disease research facilities coming online another "once in a century" pandemic some time in the next 20 when one of them messes something up, accompanied by "once in 1000 year" weather along the coastal areas at least every few years. And possibly some political militancy from one side or another as people are pushed passed their breaking point by all of this and more. However the US won't default on its debt as there are too many rich softies who would be hurt (in ego if not in reality) by it and will lobby to make sure it doesn't happen, so at least we have that, for now. Anyone want to bet I'm wrong? Build your walls high and/or get aggressive, it's going to be a rough few decades. Vulnerability will be punished worse than in the previous era.
endisneigh 4y ago
I'm curious, what would happen to an electric car if the batteries were submerged while the car was running?
- zamalek 4y ago
  Doesn't matter if the car is running or not, it's toast... er, wet toast.
squalo 4y ago
The governor had better things to do that attend to the disaster. He and Ted Cruz have that in common. https://www.wlwt.com/article/florida-gov-ron-desantis-traveling-to-ohio-for-gop-event/43567070 https://www.wlwt.com/article/florida-gov-ron-desantis-travel...

47 points by graderjs 4y ago

Sorry for the people there, hope they get by. But the way we are treating this world, FL may have a 1 on 20 million year flooding event in about 100 years. I have many friends who moved down to FL and bought a house. They love it there but when they ask me to move I say no-way. First I like winter and the other I think buying property there is like tossing $ out the window. I believe your heirs (children) will not benefit from your investment. Sadly right now, I am of the opinion we will blow right by 2C, nevermind keeping at 1.5C :( My soon to be bumber-sticker" "Why move to FL when FL is coming here".

bearjaws 4y ago
I find it very interesting that throughout the internet, the problem of rising sea levels & climate change is seen as exclusively a Florida problem. If one thing goes wrong with Florida's weather, it is seen as abandon ship, meanwhile in California, Arizona, Tornado Alley, Texas, New York, "once in 100" year events have happened every year for the last decade... Climate change is coming for everyone, over two billion people[1] live at sea-level. Its clear to me at this point we're all going to be impacted substantially and yet somehow people keep talking about Florida as if we "fix FLorida" and everything magically gets better. It almost seems like a scapegoat for other states climate issues. [1]: https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.95.24.14009 https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.95.24.14009
- lanstin 4y ago
  Bangladesh and Florida are two of the most vulnerable areas. Not only is Florida likely to be inundated entirely by a three meter rise, it is mostly fairly porous sandstone so if you want to build walls around your cities, they are super expensive and deep. Also Florida seems to be trying to increase the root causes of their own demise, so it’s sort of different than watching innocent people struck by tragedy; it’s people getting hurt by their own actions. More drama.
dfxm12 4y ago
NSF research from 2.5 years ago agrees that 1-in-X year flooding is becoming more frequent: https://beta.nsf.gov/news/once-lifetime-floods-become-regular-occurrences https://beta.nsf.gov/news/once-lifetime-floods-become-regula...

kgermino 4y ago

It's crazy how many videos and pictures I'm seeing of people driving in those flood waters. I get that it's a very flat area but if the water is near your hood you're: 1. Deep enough that you can't see obstacles in the water 2. Right on the edge of flooding your intake and destroying your engine (which I suppose won't matter if the water's that high - your car is destroyed anyway) 3. Going to get pushed over by almost _any_ current (3) especially seems extremely dangerous. That much water is going to drain somewhere and it would be easy to accidentally move into flowing water and get sucked along by the current.

briffle 4y ago
8-12 inches of moving water can float most vehicles away.
- mcculley 4y ago
  And what most don't realize is that cars will float and then sink. They will float and lose traction, becoming immobile, then they start taking on water and sink back down, ruined.
TheRealPomax 4y ago
Yeah, but then you remember that this is Florida.
- graderjs 4y ago
  What about the dogs, i mean gators, i mean dogs?
  - stronglikedan 4y ago
    Regarding gators, just get a dog that's slower than you.
dsfyu404ed 4y ago
If this wasn't normal-ish people wouldn't be going out in it. Like don't you think the lazy southerner the white collar internet loves to stereotype would call out of work at the drop of a hat? Floods (usually flash floods or hurricane related floods) in Florida happens many times a year, just not over such a wide area or at this time in the season. To them it's no different than people in Boston driving in 6-8" of snow (to those not aware, driving in 8" of snow in a state that gets snow and has plows implies a 2ft+ storm). The reason this is a 1:1000 event is because it doesn't usually happen in April. It would be like people in Boston commuting in snow in May. Is there a discussion to be had about the role and responsibility of humans in climate change makign these events more frequent? Of course. But that is completely tangential to the point I am trying to make which is that the hand wringing about "omg I can't believe they're going out in that" is just that, hand wringing.

aristus 4y ago

I remember a 20-odd inches rainstorm in Lauderdale in the early 2000's. I accidentally drove a rental car into a "puddle" that swallowed the car up to the windows. Instantly cracked the engine block.

Arrath 4y ago
Lucky it was a rental!
- morkalork 4y ago
  When Uhaul asks if you want to take the extra $15 optional insurance, always say yes. The location I used to use had printed off photos of trashed vehicles posted behind the desk to emphasize why.
  - anonymouskimmer 4y ago
    As long as there are no waivers for driver stupidity.
  - avalys 4y ago
    The reason they printed off the photos is that damage like that happens so rarely, the insurance is a huge profit center for them. That’s why they push you to buy it.
    - morkalork 4y ago
      Sure, it absolutely is for them. But it's such a marginal increase in cost for the end-user vs a small probability of having to pay the whole amount in damages. They win because they're the ones handling thousands of rentals. Unfortunately as an end-user, you are unlikely to be in the position to say "well if I take 1,000 trips and skip the insurance, I'll still come out ahead even I'm unlucky and have an accident".
  - dwater 4y ago
    For car rentals you're better off having a credit card that provides free coverage, which is pretty common on Gold and Platinum level cards.

pwinkeler 4y ago

Slight correct to meteorologist's comment. Instead of “This amount of rain in a 24-hour period is incredibly rare for South Florida,” it should have stated “This amount of rain in a 24-hour period *WAS* incredibly rare for South Florida,”

a3w 4y ago
As was reported last summer, which set heat records in some countries in the northern hemisphere: welcome to the coolest summer of your lives. From now on.
valarauko 4y ago
Frequentist vs Bayesian

scythe 4y ago

The article says 1-in-1000-year rainfall in South Florida. Flooding of similar magnitude is more common due to storm surge (wind blowing the ocean ashore). The title should be corrected to reflect the difference. More than a foot of rain fell in a day. For a sense of scale, that's more than half of the mean rainfall that San Francisco gets in a year. For climate change projections I always suggest people check the website: http://crt-climate-explorer.nemac.org/ http://crt-climate-explorer.nemac.org/

gmuslera 4y ago

The new normal is that 1-in-1000 year extreme weather events seem to be happening every few years.

a3w 4y ago
On a log scale, increase frequency by one. No idea if log base 10 or base e, though, but seems to be 10 for infrequent things, e for things that happen often.
grecy 4y ago
Just like financial crashes
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
crote 4y ago
Turns out your 1-in-1000-year numbers based on historical weather data are not that accurate anymore when the climate significantly changes. Who would've thought!

brucethemoose2 4y ago

This is the "dry season" in Florida (or at least in the Tampa Bay area). Normally we don't get any rain this time of year, which is why I think they can call this is a "1-in-1000" year event: not because the scale of flooding is so unheard of, but because extreme flooding in mid April is really bizzare. I don't mean to undermine the severity of the situation, but I think the headline is misleading, as most probably think of south Florida as a big swamp with rain all year round.

0zemp1c 4y ago
While the 25.91-inch rainfall total recorded in Fort Lauderdale is still preliminary, if it gets confirmed, it will be the greatest 24-hour precipitation total recorded in the state. Currently, the record stands at 23.28 inches, which was reported in Key West on Nov. 11, 1980. https://www.accuweather.com/en/severe-weather/state-of-emergency-declared-in-fort-lauderdale-as-heavy-rain-drenches-south-florida/1511926 https://www.accuweather.com/en/severe-weather/state-of-emerg... so this seems like a record regardless of month
- brucethemoose2 4y ago
  Well then, that just makes it all the more extreme. It would be like getting a record high in the late fall.
lanza 4y ago
I've lived in Florida over 30 years. Mostly in the South, but also for stints in central and northern. I've literally never heard of a "dry season." yay-it's-not-raining-every-single-day-and-the-grass-isn't-flooded-season sure.
- detourdog 4y ago
  The swamp outside of Gainesville I lived in definitely had a dryer season where it was passable on foot.
  - 4y ago

just_steve_h 4y ago

This is extreme. Really extreme. This is about one-third of Fort Lauderdale’ as average ANNUAL rainfall, coming in about 8 hours.

BigCryo 4y ago

Obviously due to climate change

photochemsyn 4y ago

Fossil fueled global warming in a nutshell: (1) A century of extremely heavy fossil fuel use by a rapidly growing human population increases CO2 levels with the most effect seen at about 12 km height in the atmosphere where the added CO2 absorbs infrared radiation that otherwise would have escaped to space. The re-radiated infrared warms the atmosphere a little bit (this is only about 1/3 of the overall effect, however). Some other gases (CH4, N2O etc.) have minor additive effects, but it's the fossil CO2 which is the primary driver. (2) This warming increases the evaporation/precipitation ratio such that atmospheric water vapor increases. This water vapor may be clear-air or clouds, but overall it boosts the warming rate by about twice the CO2 effect (2/3 of overall effect). However, if you dropped atmospheric CO2, water vapor equilibrates quickly, i.e. weeks/months at most. But, you end up with a good deal more water vapor in the atmosphere (+10% IIRC?). That's just the warming, no big deal it might seem. However, the Earth is still tilted on its axis, we still get seasons, we get mid-latitude storm fronts sweeping through, and if a polar cold front hits a body of air that has higher than usual water vapor content, then you get extra precipitation, driving flooding rates higher. On the other hand, if you have clear-air water vapor, and it sits in place, you can get a massive heat wave. This is why, depending on region and season and oceanic fluctuations, the severity of droughts and floods tends to increase over time as the planet warms. It's not going away, and will get worse for the next 100 years at least, so, maybe build homes that can float? Moored to concrete pilings, say. Also, don't live in flood zones, or in low-lying coastal areas. And, stop burning fossil fuels for energy so it doesn't get even worse than it already will be.

realworldperson 4y ago
[dead]
scottLobster 4y ago
A lot of retirees who bought beach houses will be disappointed. Sea level rise is already being priced into real estate https://www.rocketmortgage.com/learn/climate-change-real-estate-prices https://www.rocketmortgage.com/learn/climate-change-real-est... "A titled “Disaster on the Horizon: The Price Effect of Sea Level Rise” published by the University of Colorado identified a drop in sales in high-risk coastal areas starting in 2013. The study also states that, on average, homes near sea level rise sold for 7% less than other comparable homes. This downward trend strands in contrast to increased sales prices in nearby lower-risk areas. As sea levels continue to rise, this trend may continue. Wealthier homeowners will be able to move to lower-risk areas, while people with lower incomes will be subject to higher risks of flooding. Fewer Home Sales In High-Risk Areas In addition to decreased sales prices, there are also fewer homes being sold in coastal high-risk areas. It should come as no surprise that people don’t want to live in areas where they feel threatened by extreme weather and wildfires. Even if being close to the woods or the ocean is a huge plus, no one wants their home to be threatened by a fire or flood. With fewer homes being purchased in these areas, those who want to sell may have a harder time. The decrease in sales prices and home sales could be a housing market indicator for the future of coastal home sales."

scottLobster 4y ago

I remember reading a bunch of "huh, that's weird, the water's super warm but it's been a pretty mild hurricane season" columns last year. Maybe the result of warm water past a certain point is less more intense hurricanes and more stuff like this. Also, as a millennial in his mid-30s, all these "once in a <long ass amount of time>" events happening just in my adult life are starting to lose their punch. Given the severity of the yield curve inversion I'm expecting a "once in a century" recession/depression in the next five years, and given the number of disease research facilities coming online another "once in a century" pandemic some time in the next 20 when one of them messes something up, accompanied by "once in 1000 year" weather along the coastal areas at least every few years. And possibly some political militancy from one side or another as people are pushed passed their breaking point by all of this and more. However the US won't default on its debt as there are too many rich softies who would be hurt (in ego if not in reality) by it and will lobby to make sure it doesn't happen, so at least we have that, for now. Anyone want to bet I'm wrong? Build your walls high and/or get aggressive, it's going to be a rough few decades. Vulnerability will be punished worse than in the previous era.

endisneigh 4y ago

I'm curious, what would happen to an electric car if the batteries were submerged while the car was running?

zamalek 4y ago
Doesn't matter if the car is running or not, it's toast... er, wet toast.

squalo 4y ago

The governor had better things to do that attend to the disaster. He and Ted Cruz have that in common. https://www.wlwt.com/article/florida-gov-ron-desantis-traveling-to-ohio-for-gop-event/43567070 https://www.wlwt.com/article/florida-gov-ron-desantis-travel...