4 ms·

Ah yes, and meanwhile here on HN, everyone keeps repeating AI is not ‘replacing anyone yet’ and no one has to worry. While people are getting axed and replaced

Ah yes, and meanwhile here on HN, everyone keeps repeating AI is not ‘replacing anyone yet’ and no one has to worry. While people are getting axed and replaced by AI everywhere I look. Examples: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35326865 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35326865 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35194986 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35194986

deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
blakesterz 4y ago
What I keep seeing is "This frees people up to do something else", which is the part that I just don't agree with. I just can't help but think there is a very large net drop in jobs in the areas that are going to be hit (apparently Game Art is on) and no increase anywhere else, so we're going to be left with a LOT of people with no where to go.
- bryanlarsen 4y ago
  This has always been true. A single factory worker replaced dozens of blacksmiths. A single mechanic replaced dozens of farriers and groomsmen. We went from 80% people employed directly in agriculture to 1%. Only a very small portion of the 79% no longer working on farms are now building the giant tractors etc that make the few remaining farmers so much more efficient.
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
- krapp 4y ago
  > What I keep seeing is "This frees people up to do something else", which is the part that I just don't agree with. A lot of true believers in the infinite abundance of free market capitalism are going to have a rude awakening when they too are left to die in the trenches like dogs.
dtagames 4y ago
And it cannot be coincidental that many companies, even the US, have announced layoffs right alongside their new investments in LLMs and AI. Sometimes within days of each other! We are literally seeing people laid off in anticipation of making money from AI, rather than continuing to pay the employees.
Woeps 4y ago
Their slogan is: "Tracking the Explosive World of Generative AI" I would take anything positive they say about AI with a few (or more) grains of salt. But you might be right. Tough so far I have mixed feelings, just today chatGPT had issues writing a simple 10 line bash or fish function.
sottol 4y ago
Everyone? Imo more than half are worried, some members are thinking about switching careers. Two random examples by searching algolia for a minute (entire posts, not just single comments) https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34008901 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34008901 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33884202 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33884202
- anonzzzies 4y ago
  You are right, but the more prominent members in this community believe there is no issue, at least as far as I have seen. Of course I do not read everything (I still have a job), but I do read quite a lot. I see more the seniors/established saying no worries and the juniors worry. But I also notice that the people who don’t worry are in a reality distortion field where they never work or did work with bad programmers for instance. They were smart, went to a good schools, have friends with 130+ iqs and think ai is far removed. If that is true or not (the ai being far from 130 human iq) is not relevant; it is better or at least good enough and definitely faster at many many things compared to most humans, but many people here never meet these ‘most humans’ because they have none around them.
  - freitzkriesler2 4y ago
    There were 130IQs thinking the internet and crypto had little value as well (we can argue about crypto's utility) but the point still stands: high IQ doesn't preclude someone from being wrong, it just reduces the likelihood. And typically when high IQ people are wrong as rare as it is, they're really really wrong
    - anonzzzies 4y ago
      Sure, but the thing is that people are in their own circles and if you only know and talk to smart people, you get a very skewed view of humanity. You start believing we as a whole are far better than we are.
      - 4y ago
oh_sigh 4y ago
> With a 70% drop in illustrator jobs in China over the past year – initially triggered by economic slowdown and regulatory pressures, then accelerated by the proliferation of AI tools I think we would need a firmer accounting of what percent of the decline is due to economic slowdown vs AI
- badpun 4y ago
  Given that many statistics people throw around are pure bullshit, I'd be satisfied with them just revealing a source of this stat.
  - mztwo 4y ago
    Source for this is the Run of World article linked in the document. Their China journalist spoke with recruiters who work on video game illustrator roles and gave background info on the trend and decrease. I'd like to think this is similar to how Silicon Valley recruiters (the good ones, at least) have a strong pulse on the market and can share trends well in advance of them making it into any mainstream publications like WSJ or NYTimes.
    - seanmcdirmid 4y ago
      Given the slow down in tech hiring, how would that slow down in illustrator hiring be compared to slowdowns in dev hiring? Interest rates going up put a damper on tech hiring in the states, and China could be going through something similar?
    - badpun 4y ago
      Ok, so this is as I suspected - it's not "70% drop in illustrator jobs", but merely 70% drop of new open positions.
slashdev 4y ago
Every disruptive technology creates and destroys jobs. This is business as usual since the start of the Industrial Revolution and beyond. No need to panic, like the Luddites, yet. Real AGI is the time to panic, because that forms an event horizon we can't see beyond. There may well be no place at all for humans in a post AGI world. But LLMs are still a long way from AGI. I don't expect to see AGI in my lifetime, despite the blistering pace of advancement.
- anonzzzies 4y ago
  Yep, you are a typical example. Your world (and mine) is safe, but let’s meet up and step into a fortune 1000 non FAANG office, hit someone up for a chat and let’s see if you don’t believe this person can be replaced now by gpt4. Try it. I cannot see how, even after these stories, you cannot see how this is a problem and how this is not vastly different (horse drivers went to car drivers, farmers became factory workers etc; there is no such switch now) than the previous examples. We are limited by the amount of very clever people as the rest can be replaced (we need some robots but that’s coming). When we reach AGI, then even the 130+ iq peeps like you and me can start the worrying. But that doesn’t mean there is a present danger.
  - andsoitis 4y ago
    If one person is more competent and willing to work for less money than someone else, what is a business to do? Hire/retain the more expensive less competent employee? If a machine is more competent and costs less than a human worker, what is a business to do? Not use robots to assemble cars? Not use AI to do mechanizable routine work?
    - anonzzzies 4y ago
      Yea, that’s what will happen. Not sure why you are responding to me? The gp seems to argue that this won’t be a problem now as in the past this made more jobs, so it will now too. I don’t believe that.
      - 4y ago
riogordo2go 4y ago
Maybe trades will get popular again as this is less easy to swap with an ai alternative.
- taylodl 4y ago
  Trades aren't unpopular as the popular narrative says - there's barriers to entry that few people are talking about.
- re-thc 4y ago
  Who will you sell your services to when no 1 can afford it anymore?
akasakahakada 4y ago
AI can never replace AI deniers. Just like science still unable to get rid of flat earthers.
- anonzzzies 4y ago
  And religion.
walkhour 4y ago
This is just the beginning and we don't know what will happen. Some people will say creative destruction is happening and people will find other jobs. They may equate this to the horse drivers finding other jobs at the beginning of the XXth century. The truth is we don't know. People that will lose their jobs may find other jobs or not. Maybe it's harder to reinvent oneself now. Maybe a lot of people will truly suffer because of AI. I find very hard to know with certainty what will happen, who will remain unharmed, and who will struggle but make it through, but change is coming.
- anonzzzies 4y ago
  We should prepare for it though. All the existential stuff with AIs killing humans I don’t think is the biggest danger. No work and no money is far more urgent. Even if it doesn’t happen, it can happen, so why not assume it will and change tactics when it’s clear it’s far more sunnier?
  - orwin 4y ago
    As long as we produce as much food and as much utilities, why would having less work to do overall bad?
    - anonzzzies 4y ago
      Well yes, that’s the best outcome; infinite energy which means infinite everything and, with AGI, infinite intelligence. Done properly, there is no worry; we will live in paradise. No needs for ads, wars or money. But it will depend on who owns it, no?
    - bobwaycott 4y ago
      Because “less work” means less money—and we haven’t built a society in which people can access all the food and utilities produced without it.
    - Taywee 4y ago
      Because most of the entire world is structured such that not working means you don't eat, can't pay rent, and can't afford healthcare Having less work is great, if we completely overhaul our economy so that not working is a viable way of life.
freitzkriesler2 4y ago
Yup, china is a good bell weather for the type of destructive boosts we'll see in jobs with AI. They have no scruples about laying off a ton of their workforce. Wait until non union entertainment industry jobs get a hold of this AI stuff. It's over and it is coming.
qwery 4y ago
> AI is not ‘replacing anyone yet’ and no one has to worry. I have seen these comments and this excuse (among others) as well. The thing that amuses me, before that amusement turns to some sort of cosmic existential horror dread, is the lack of critical thinking and general reasoning skills on display. The argument that AI is not replacing anyone yet is a strange one, because it implies that the outcome is inevitable (and at least unfortunate, presumably) but you shouldn't worry about it. You know, because it hasn't happened yet. But it will. So stop talking about it. I don't know, I just find that strange. (and seeing this pattern all over the place increasingly frequently is deeply concerning but that's a real-talk so I better stop).
danielrpa 4y ago
And this is the 8-bit version of AI Art, relatively speaking. In 10 years it will be hard to find a human that can match AI's quality in "regular art", i.e., something that doesn't try to innovate artistically but otherwise looks great.
TheLoafOfBread 4y ago
I am not worried at all. I am looking forward to it. And if people can be replaced by smarter IntelliSense, then maybe it is time to skill up.

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]

blakesterz 4y ago

What I keep seeing is "This frees people up to do something else", which is the part that I just don't agree with. I just can't help but think there is a very large net drop in jobs in the areas that are going to be hit (apparently Game Art is on) and no increase anywhere else, so we're going to be left with a LOT of people with no where to go.

bryanlarsen 4y ago
This has always been true. A single factory worker replaced dozens of blacksmiths. A single mechanic replaced dozens of farriers and groomsmen. We went from 80% people employed directly in agriculture to 1%. Only a very small portion of the 79% no longer working on farms are now building the giant tractors etc that make the few remaining farmers so much more efficient.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
krapp 4y ago
> What I keep seeing is "This frees people up to do something else", which is the part that I just don't agree with. A lot of true believers in the infinite abundance of free market capitalism are going to have a rude awakening when they too are left to die in the trenches like dogs.

dtagames 4y ago

And it cannot be coincidental that many companies, even the US, have announced layoffs right alongside their new investments in LLMs and AI. Sometimes within days of each other! We are literally seeing people laid off in anticipation of making money from AI, rather than continuing to pay the employees.

Woeps 4y ago

Their slogan is: "Tracking the Explosive World of Generative AI" I would take anything positive they say about AI with a few (or more) grains of salt. But you might be right. Tough so far I have mixed feelings, just today chatGPT had issues writing a simple 10 line bash or fish function.

sottol 4y ago

Everyone? Imo more than half are worried, some members are thinking about switching careers. Two random examples by searching algolia for a minute (entire posts, not just single comments) https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34008901 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34008901 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33884202 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33884202

anonzzzies 4y ago
You are right, but the more prominent members in this community believe there is no issue, at least as far as I have seen. Of course I do not read everything (I still have a job), but I do read quite a lot. I see more the seniors/established saying no worries and the juniors worry. But I also notice that the people who don’t worry are in a reality distortion field where they never work or did work with bad programmers for instance. They were smart, went to a good schools, have friends with 130+ iqs and think ai is far removed. If that is true or not (the ai being far from 130 human iq) is not relevant; it is better or at least good enough and definitely faster at many many things compared to most humans, but many people here never meet these ‘most humans’ because they have none around them.
- freitzkriesler2 4y ago
  There were 130IQs thinking the internet and crypto had little value as well (we can argue about crypto's utility) but the point still stands: high IQ doesn't preclude someone from being wrong, it just reduces the likelihood. And typically when high IQ people are wrong as rare as it is, they're really really wrong
  - anonzzzies 4y ago
    Sure, but the thing is that people are in their own circles and if you only know and talk to smart people, you get a very skewed view of humanity. You start believing we as a whole are far better than we are.
    - 4y ago

oh_sigh 4y ago

> With a 70% drop in illustrator jobs in China over the past year – initially triggered by economic slowdown and regulatory pressures, then accelerated by the proliferation of AI tools I think we would need a firmer accounting of what percent of the decline is due to economic slowdown vs AI

badpun 4y ago
Given that many statistics people throw around are pure bullshit, I'd be satisfied with them just revealing a source of this stat.
- mztwo 4y ago
  Source for this is the Run of World article linked in the document. Their China journalist spoke with recruiters who work on video game illustrator roles and gave background info on the trend and decrease. I'd like to think this is similar to how Silicon Valley recruiters (the good ones, at least) have a strong pulse on the market and can share trends well in advance of them making it into any mainstream publications like WSJ or NYTimes.
  - seanmcdirmid 4y ago
    Given the slow down in tech hiring, how would that slow down in illustrator hiring be compared to slowdowns in dev hiring? Interest rates going up put a damper on tech hiring in the states, and China could be going through something similar?
  - badpun 4y ago
    Ok, so this is as I suspected - it's not "70% drop in illustrator jobs", but merely 70% drop of new open positions.

slashdev 4y ago

Every disruptive technology creates and destroys jobs. This is business as usual since the start of the Industrial Revolution and beyond. No need to panic, like the Luddites, yet. Real AGI is the time to panic, because that forms an event horizon we can't see beyond. There may well be no place at all for humans in a post AGI world. But LLMs are still a long way from AGI. I don't expect to see AGI in my lifetime, despite the blistering pace of advancement.

anonzzzies 4y ago
Yep, you are a typical example. Your world (and mine) is safe, but let’s meet up and step into a fortune 1000 non FAANG office, hit someone up for a chat and let’s see if you don’t believe this person can be replaced now by gpt4. Try it. I cannot see how, even after these stories, you cannot see how this is a problem and how this is not vastly different (horse drivers went to car drivers, farmers became factory workers etc; there is no such switch now) than the previous examples. We are limited by the amount of very clever people as the rest can be replaced (we need some robots but that’s coming). When we reach AGI, then even the 130+ iq peeps like you and me can start the worrying. But that doesn’t mean there is a present danger.
- andsoitis 4y ago
  If one person is more competent and willing to work for less money than someone else, what is a business to do? Hire/retain the more expensive less competent employee? If a machine is more competent and costs less than a human worker, what is a business to do? Not use robots to assemble cars? Not use AI to do mechanizable routine work?
  - anonzzzies 4y ago
    Yea, that’s what will happen. Not sure why you are responding to me? The gp seems to argue that this won’t be a problem now as in the past this made more jobs, so it will now too. I don’t believe that.
    - 4y ago

riogordo2go 4y ago

Maybe trades will get popular again as this is less easy to swap with an ai alternative.

taylodl 4y ago
Trades aren't unpopular as the popular narrative says - there's barriers to entry that few people are talking about.
re-thc 4y ago
Who will you sell your services to when no 1 can afford it anymore?

akasakahakada 4y ago

AI can never replace AI deniers. Just like science still unable to get rid of flat earthers.

anonzzzies 4y ago
And religion.

walkhour 4y ago

This is just the beginning and we don't know what will happen. Some people will say creative destruction is happening and people will find other jobs. They may equate this to the horse drivers finding other jobs at the beginning of the XXth century. The truth is we don't know. People that will lose their jobs may find other jobs or not. Maybe it's harder to reinvent oneself now. Maybe a lot of people will truly suffer because of AI. I find very hard to know with certainty what will happen, who will remain unharmed, and who will struggle but make it through, but change is coming.

anonzzzies 4y ago
We should prepare for it though. All the existential stuff with AIs killing humans I don’t think is the biggest danger. No work and no money is far more urgent. Even if it doesn’t happen, it can happen, so why not assume it will and change tactics when it’s clear it’s far more sunnier?
- orwin 4y ago
  As long as we produce as much food and as much utilities, why would having less work to do overall bad?
  - anonzzzies 4y ago
    Well yes, that’s the best outcome; infinite energy which means infinite everything and, with AGI, infinite intelligence. Done properly, there is no worry; we will live in paradise. No needs for ads, wars or money. But it will depend on who owns it, no?
  - bobwaycott 4y ago
    Because “less work” means less money—and we haven’t built a society in which people can access all the food and utilities produced without it.
  - Taywee 4y ago
    Because most of the entire world is structured such that not working means you don't eat, can't pay rent, and can't afford healthcare Having less work is great, if we completely overhaul our economy so that not working is a viable way of life.

freitzkriesler2 4y ago

Yup, china is a good bell weather for the type of destructive boosts we'll see in jobs with AI. They have no scruples about laying off a ton of their workforce. Wait until non union entertainment industry jobs get a hold of this AI stuff. It's over and it is coming.

qwery 4y ago

> AI is not ‘replacing anyone yet’ and no one has to worry. I have seen these comments and this excuse (among others) as well. The thing that amuses me, before that amusement turns to some sort of cosmic existential horror dread, is the lack of critical thinking and general reasoning skills on display. The argument that AI is not replacing anyone yet is a strange one, because it implies that the outcome is inevitable (and at least unfortunate, presumably) but you shouldn't worry about it. You know, because it hasn't happened yet. But it will. So stop talking about it. I don't know, I just find that strange. (and seeing this pattern all over the place increasingly frequently is deeply concerning but that's a real-talk so I better stop).

danielrpa 4y ago

And this is the 8-bit version of AI Art, relatively speaking. In 10 years it will be hard to find a human that can match AI's quality in "regular art", i.e., something that doesn't try to innovate artistically but otherwise looks great.

TheLoafOfBread 4y ago

I am not worried at all. I am looking forward to it. And if people can be replaced by smarter IntelliSense, then maybe it is time to skill up.