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Tesla Model 2 will have 53kWh LFP battery pack
- xqcgrek2 4y agoAt Tesla's profit margin and economies of scale, it might be the first decent sub-20k USD EV
- gst 4y agoAre there any new ICE vehicles currently selling in the US for less than $20k? I'd expect the Model 2 to be priced at least at $30k.
- devoutsalsa 4y agoThere are some low end Nissans, Kias, and Mitsubishis on cars.com for sub-19k USD as of right now.
- LanceJones 4y agoThe Model 3 SR in China is ~$33000USD and in the US (after tax credit), about $34000. Tesla is aiming for a much lower cost to produce... they've stated 50% COGS of the Model 3, which would put its cost at about $18000 USD. Their goal is to achieve > 20% gross margin, which would still be achievable at a selling price of $25K USD.
- geerlingguy 4y agoExcept... by the time it actually ships, probably $40k :(
- heartbreak 4y agoA base model Nissan Versa is $15k MSRP. They have other models in that range. Or you can get a new Toyota Corolla for $21k MSRP, which is close enough.
- throwaway5959 4y agoNow do the math for now expensive the gas is for that in LA going out to the next ten years assuming ten miles a day commute during the week and 30 miles on weekends.
- heartbreak 4y agoWhy am I pricing the gas in LA? Most car buyers do not live in LA.
- tharkun__ 4y agoWith how the Hoover dam and others are looking as well as taking into account a rising number of people that will want to charge EVs, maybe you want to do some scenarios around electricity pricing as well.
- 8uhaal 4y agoThe people increasingly charging their EVs from their solar panels on the roof?
- nytesky 4y agoAs more and more cars become electric, wouldn’t the price of gas also drop in the next decade?
- heresie-dabord 4y agoHeavy industrial demand won't change. And let's not expect the petrostate cartel to make the transition away from their product to be an easy one.
- htag 4y ago1. Less than a handful. $25k brings several options. 2. To effectively be a $20k car EVs have an advantage because of their tax subsidies. {Base Price} - {Tax Credit} < $20,000 is plausible. It's impossible to say who will qualify or how big of a tax credit US customers will have by the time this would launch.
- Hamuko 4y agoNissan Versa, $15,830 Mitsubishi Mirage, $16,245 Kia Rio, $16,750 Hyundai Venue, $19,650 Kia Forte, $19,690 Subaru Impreza, $19,795 Kia Soul, $19,890
- throwayyy479087 4y ago[dead]
- tristanj 4y agoTesla is behind the competition. There are already multiple sub-20k USD EVs on the market, such as the BYD e2 ($15k) or the Geely Geometry EX3 (below $10k).
- reducesuffering 4y agoCurrent 272 mile range Model 3 is 60 kWh pack. So we might be looking at about ~250 mile range for this one, and hopefully a $30k price.
- api 4y agoWhy does a 62kWh Nissan leaf only go about 230 miles? Less efficient power train?
- pengaru 4y agoJudging from a Nissan Leaf's appearance, its short wheelbase alone isn't doing it any favors in the aero department...
- jackmott 4y agoaerodynamics mostly, motor efficiency partly
- api 4y agoThe aerodynamics checks out from my experience. I have one and when you drive it below highway speeds it seems to have great range. Would not surprise me if you got real close to model 3 range at 40mph. On the highway at high speeds the range is slightly worse than its advertised range at more like 210 miles vs advertised 230. I was just curious since I always assumed the model 3 had a bigger battery but hadn’t checked. It’s good enough for my uses and I still prefer it to a gas car for multiple reasons including zero latency acceleration.
- joewadcan 4y agoLess efficient inverters, worse aerodynamics, weaker motors, heavier interiors, and probably worse software (that one is an educated guess).
- windowsrookie 4y agoFrom what I've heard Tesla's powertrain is still more efficient than every other EV's.
- threeseed 4y agoMay. Not will. Until these cars are on the road there really isn't much point to articles like this.
- htag 4y agoThere is value in industry rumors and speculation, but come on even official Tesla product announcements are basically rumors.
- Hamuko 4y agoDo we know what the final prices of the Cybertruck are gonna be yet? They announced something back in the day, but they also claimed that they'd be on the road in 2021.
- pmorici 4y agoNo, they will likely honor original pricing for people who made a reservation but they closed reservations and haven’t posted updated pricing yet.
- ttfkam 4y agoIt's astounding to me how much less appealing Tesla has become as a brand since Musk decide to YOLO his way into Twitter. SpaceX is still so far ahead, no one questions it. But other auto manufacturers are already shipping alternatives to Tesla. Despite its early lead, when there are alternatives, goodwill and trust count for an awful lot, two qualities Musk is most assuredly not known for inspiring in the general public of late. FAFO indeed.
- TheHappyOddish 4y agoThis view seems pretty disconnected with reality. 1. Most people are not on Twitter and know little about Twitter or its ownership. In fact if you want to refine that down, this applies to most people capable of buying EVs in the world. You are likely in a bubble if you disagree here. 2. There are no alternatives that beat Tesla on price, performance and range. Many win on 2 (and BYD are moving the right way), but I've been hearing this for the 15 years Tesla has made cars for. Nobody seems to be getting close, and this so called "early lead" seems firmly established now. 3. Similar to 1, most Tesla owners know little to nothing about the CEO, just like most Ford owners. This was not true early on - or even 4 years ago - but the ownership has swelled and those early adopters with high knowledge are a much smaller percentage now.
- sebzim4500 4y agoAre there metrics in which Tesla sales are dropping? I can't find any by googling, but I also can't find accurate data for the last two quarters. If your evidence for this 'finding out' is purely the prevailing sentiment of HN/reddit/twitter, then I would mostly disregard it.
- bryanlarsen 4y agoThat is a complete misinterpretation of Tesla's document. That part of the document is calculating the global annual battery demand once we're fully electrified. The chart says that 42M compact cars are sold annually by all vendors across all countries, and that if electrified, those 42M compact cars will have an average battery pack size of 53kWh, leading to an annual demand for 36TWh of batteries for that segment. Telsa obviously doesn't believe they're going to get 100% of the market, they don't believe they're going to sell 42M compact cars per year. The 53kWh figure is no more meaningful. Heck, that TBD in the table doesn't even promise that Tesla will even enter the segment, internet commentary to the contrary.
- jillesvangurp 4y agoThey don't even believe the size of that market will be 42M compact cars. Autonomous cars will not be privately owned and be utilized very differently than privately owned cars. And of course, Tesla is investing in that as well. A privately owned car is useless battery capacity that is sitting there not driving and fully charged for most of the time while you are sleeping, working, or whatever (i.e. not driving). An autonomous car owned by a company that sells rides is very different. It will be ferrying around people whenever it can. You need a lot less of those to satisfy demand. Tesla will be selling lots of vehicles and batteries before we get there of course. But it would be a mistake to think of the market in terms of how things currently work. Which is the mistake this article makes.
- sshine 4y ago> A privately owned car is useless battery capacity that is sitting there not driving and fully charged for most of the time while you are sleeping That’s not necessarily true in the future. One idea I’ve heard is to use charging cars for energy grid balancing.
- jillesvangurp 4y agoTrue, except domestic batteries will be cheap enough and more convenient. So we actually won't need the additional capacity from vehicles. Vehicle 2 grid will be possible but mostly redundant.
- Animats 4y agoOK, same strategy as BYD - mostly lithium iron phosphate batteries, some lithium-ion (that's what Tesla means by "high nickel") for the high end. Here's the BYD presentation from 2020.[1] BYD managed to get the energy density per unit volume of lithium iron phosphate batteries close to that of lithium-ion. They're substantially heavier, but not bigger. Lithium iron phosphate battery chemistry doesn't have the thermal runaway problem. Fires are still possible but tend not to be as intense. [1] https://insideevs.com/news/406839/byd-blade-battery/ https://insideevs.com/news/406839/byd-blade-battery/
- scq 4y agoLithium iron phosphate is still lithium-ion. Tesla's main other battery type is nickel cobalt aluminum (NCA). The names in both cases refer to the cathode material, but they're both still lithium-ion. (There are also other lithium-ion cathode materials that don't contain nickel, such as LMO)
- ZeroGravitas 4y agoBYD is introducing Sodium Ion for the low end next week: https://m.arenaev.com/11600_byd_seagull_launches_on_april_18_with_305_km_sodiumion_battery-news-1624.php https://m.arenaev.com/11600_byd_seagull_launches_on_april_18...
- ChumpGPT 4y agoI suppose he has to do something. I can't imagine if BYD came to America. https://www.arenaev.com/15000_byd_e2_comes_with_405_km_of_range_and_2_years_of_free_internet-news-1650.php https://www.arenaev.com/15000_byd_e2_comes_with_405_km_of_ra... I've seen a few of their vehicles at shows, etc and they look decent.
- FullyFunctional 4y agoThe Supercharger network. This alone sets Tesla apart from all other BEV brands. The hodgepodge of alternatives simply cannot compete on speed, widespread availability, and most importantly, reliability [1]. I wish it was different but until this changes, Tesla is the only game in town for me. [1] I have heard many horror stories first hand of being stranded next to a non-working charger and read plenty online.
- LammyL 4y agoYeah. BYD is the biggest threat to EV manufacturers worldwide if they ever move outside china with any real velocity.
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