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>200 NGADs Are they making the same mistake as they did with the F-22 by acquiring a precious "silver-bullet" fleet? How do they account for downtime due to ma

• worrycue 4y ago
  I think that’s the way the US AF has always operated - a high low mix; a handful of expensive ultra capable “mission” aircraft with lots cheaper mass produced ones for “routine” use. E.G. F-15 vs F-16 The F-22 vs F-35 was suppose to fit that mould too but the F-35 turned out to be more expensive than expected - although the cost has dropped in recent years and they are hard at work to reduce it further.
• nradov 4y ago
  Yes, but what is the alternative? In order to be combat effective in the Pacific theater, NGAD will need to have a long unrefueled operating range (roughly F-111 size), super cruise, broadband stealth, large AESA radar, numerous other sensors, advanced EW, and an internal magazine large enough to accommodate weapons with greater range than the AIM-120. Those capabilities are all terribly expensive. But what's the point of building a lesser aircraft? Anything less capable won't even be survivable enough to make it to from US air bases to the first island chain. The dilletantes on here always claim that manned tactical aircraft are obsolete and should be replaced by swarms of cheap drones. But it's impossible to build a cheap drone with the range, sensors, and payload necessary to be effective in that environment. Look at the unit cost of something like an MQ-4C or MQ-25A. Remote piloting isn't going to viable in a hostile EW environment, and current AI software is incapable of handling highly dynamic situations. I do expect though that at least some NGAD variants will be designed as optionally manned so that they can be employed as drones against heavily defended fixed targets.
  • lumost 4y ago
    One could imagine a next generation Valkyrie could handle this role well. Something big and fast enough to chuck missiles at 300 mile ranges - with a radar to match.
    • nradov 4y ago
      Those were always intended as complementary systems. NGAD will have to act as a control node for advanced UCAVs because satellite links may be unavailable. Current AI technology is far from being sufficient for autonomous operations on most missions. The XQ-58 Valkyrie shows some promise, but like most other current tactical aircraft it lacks the range and speed to be effective in the Pacific theater. A larger next generation model is likely to have a very high unit cost.
      • lumost 4y ago
        Ahh I was thinking of the B-70 Valkyrie from the 70s. A Mach 3+ intercontinental high altitude bomber.
• ranger207 4y ago
  I don't think they're saying they want only 200 NGADs. I think it's saying that they want to have enough CCAs so that they can have 200 sets of 1 NGAD + 2 CCAs. It also says 300 F-35s, which certainly isn't going to be the case; rather, that refers to 300 sets of 1 F-35 + 2 CCAs. The link in that paragraph has some slightly different wording that makes it clearer