6 ms·

Well maybe shift to "real world" professions will occur resulting in us addressing abysmal infrastructure and housing situation. I am looking at picking up a tr

by qaq 4y ago

Well maybe shift to "real world" professions will occur resulting in us addressing abysmal infrastructure and housing situation. I am looking at picking up a trade because of this coming shift.

spaceguillotine 4y ago
i did that, i got injured at work and now can't do physical labor. Trades are hell on the body and bosses will toss you aside without any care. Join a Union if you're gonna go into the trades, i would've had protection and better safety. I took so many people to the ER for work injuries that were preventable but the bosses skimp on everything.
- qaq 4y ago
  What would you say is the safest trade as far as risk of injury ?
  - user_7832 4y ago
    Not OP, but I’d assume something at a nuclear plant (or something else that’s govt owned.)
    - tekknik 4y ago
      Someone didn’t watch Chernobyl
      - user_7832 4y ago
        Fair point haha
  - great_psy 4y ago
    I would say electrician? Your biggest risk is electrocution and asbestos exposure.
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
  - ska 4y ago
    Risk of injury comes from two things: Environment and stresses on the body. Environmental risks can be mitigated, if the job location inherently has risks, you will be better off with a regulated industry where the regulations have teeth, and probably in a union. Stresses on the body are largely mitigated by having a job that takes more brain than back, but watch out for repetitive motion stuff and mitigate that yourself. Mostly in the trades you get paid more for some mix of a) having in-demand skills and experience that aren't easy to acquire fast, b) putting up with unpleasant environments, or c) accepting risks. You can probably trade off c against a mix of a) and b). So for example being a tool and die maker in general is way safer than being a faller. Watch for industry specific stuff too. Kicking carpet is more pleasant and less dangerous than electrical, but it won't pay well and your knees are likely screwed by your mid 40s.
bayarearefugee 4y ago
I don't think people appreciate the mass disruption of a shift like this happening across so many industries all at the same time. This sort of professional shift works when automation comes for a subset of a single sector, but we're looking at an everywhere all at once situation. How many plumbers are we going to need, exactly? I also don't think people appreciate the absolute social turmoil that will occur as a result of this because of our complete lack of planning for it. Afraid you won't have a useful job due to the rapid rise of AI replacing vast amounts of knowledge workers? Get to work building guillotines. You won't be able to sell them for very much but you can make up for it in volume. To the wealth class: Massive amounts of people don't just quietly disappear when they suddenly can't feed or house their families because they've been automated out of a job.
- mertd 4y ago
  People are very good at creating work. Every time tech creates a paradigm shift and people cry that there will be not enough work, the exact opposite happens.
  - simonh 4y ago
    Exactly, we’ve been automating the living crap out of almost everything for hundreds of years, but employment has never been higher. Automation leads to higher productivity, cheaper goods and services, increased need for technical skills, thus higher wages and higher demand. Of course there can be some painful periods of adjustment, but that’s often caused by misguided policy trying to hold back the tide and delay the inevitable. Ultimately yes, full no holds barred human level AI may well render human labour obsolete, but we’re a very long way away from that. I know some people think LLMs are close to that already, but no, not even remotely close. I do believe strong AI is possible and maybe even inevitable. They’re a huge step forward, and are easily the biggest advance towards strong AI in my lifetime, but these things are just tools.
    - avereveard 4y ago
      We have been automating at the beginning of the production chain , mostly. This is the first automation that targets directly knowledge workers, and hit almost all of them but those in profession where error can cause people deaths. Traditionally knowledge workers were the bulk of the middle class, because well it takes 30 years to produce one and not all make the cut, so they are paid market prices instead of minimum wages. And by that nature, knowledge workers cannot reinvent themselves overnight, there will nowhere left to go for them. Maybe lawyers and medics and a few other can entrenche themselves with legislation, but if you are a knowledge worker in a non union field things look scary.
ilyt 4y ago
Housing situation isn't there because there isn't enough people to build houses...
ilaksh 4y ago
Robotics will rapidly pick up improved capabilities. With so many people out of work and so much automation being consolidated, what do you think all the entrepreneurs and researchers will look to next? It will be breakthroughs and efficiency improvements in robotics . I think this "learn a trade" plan has maybe 5 years max. By then the trades will also be automated.
- BirdieNZ 4y ago
  I'm not a gambling man but if I was I would put a very large amount of my net worth on a bet that no trades will be automated in 5 years time. Not a single one.
- philipkglass 4y ago
  Progress is slower in the world of atoms than in the world of information. I watched the progress from the first DARPA Grand Challenge for self-driving cars (2004, no car made it to the finish line) to the Urban Challenge in 2007 (many cars succeeded in a much more complicated environment) and thought that self driving vehicles would soon be commercialized. But there are 10,000 "last 1%" cases left to handle and we still don't have good enough systems to replace truck drivers or cab drivers today. Replacing jobs like plumber or electrician looks even harder than self driving vehicles because it requires far more intricate physical manipulation and perception than driving on public roads.
  - sudosysgen 4y ago
    It's fine to automate 99% of it if the 1% can be somewhat efficiently taken over by humans. LLMs suffer the same issues.
- RecycledEle 4y ago
  I think trades will be around for a century. The problem is dealing with crazy existing stuff, like houses that are not to code and have been repaired by the last 3 owners, all of whom made it up as they went. Good trades people are able to figure out what the last idiot was thinking, know how it is supposed to work, and can make it work (without callbacks) for a long time with minimal intervention. I remember a college professor who cashed out his retirement in the mid-1990's to start his own online college. He went broke in less than a decade, and we still have not removed professors from the colleges. As a teacher, I do think that ChatGPT will replace most textbooks and teachers, but I don't know how long that will take.

by qaq 4y ago

Well maybe shift to "real world" professions will occur resulting in us addressing abysmal infrastructure and housing situation. I am looking at picking up a trade because of this coming shift.

spaceguillotine 4y ago

i did that, i got injured at work and now can't do physical labor. Trades are hell on the body and bosses will toss you aside without any care. Join a Union if you're gonna go into the trades, i would've had protection and better safety. I took so many people to the ER for work injuries that were preventable but the bosses skimp on everything.

qaq 4y ago
What would you say is the safest trade as far as risk of injury ?
- user_7832 4y ago
  Not OP, but I’d assume something at a nuclear plant (or something else that’s govt owned.)
  - tekknik 4y ago
    Someone didn’t watch Chernobyl
    - user_7832 4y ago
      Fair point haha
- great_psy 4y ago
  I would say electrician? Your biggest risk is electrocution and asbestos exposure.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- ska 4y ago
  Risk of injury comes from two things: Environment and stresses on the body. Environmental risks can be mitigated, if the job location inherently has risks, you will be better off with a regulated industry where the regulations have teeth, and probably in a union. Stresses on the body are largely mitigated by having a job that takes more brain than back, but watch out for repetitive motion stuff and mitigate that yourself. Mostly in the trades you get paid more for some mix of a) having in-demand skills and experience that aren't easy to acquire fast, b) putting up with unpleasant environments, or c) accepting risks. You can probably trade off c against a mix of a) and b). So for example being a tool and die maker in general is way safer than being a faller. Watch for industry specific stuff too. Kicking carpet is more pleasant and less dangerous than electrical, but it won't pay well and your knees are likely screwed by your mid 40s.

bayarearefugee 4y ago

I don't think people appreciate the mass disruption of a shift like this happening across so many industries all at the same time. This sort of professional shift works when automation comes for a subset of a single sector, but we're looking at an everywhere all at once situation. How many plumbers are we going to need, exactly? I also don't think people appreciate the absolute social turmoil that will occur as a result of this because of our complete lack of planning for it. Afraid you won't have a useful job due to the rapid rise of AI replacing vast amounts of knowledge workers? Get to work building guillotines. You won't be able to sell them for very much but you can make up for it in volume. To the wealth class: Massive amounts of people don't just quietly disappear when they suddenly can't feed or house their families because they've been automated out of a job.

mertd 4y ago
People are very good at creating work. Every time tech creates a paradigm shift and people cry that there will be not enough work, the exact opposite happens.
- simonh 4y ago
  Exactly, we’ve been automating the living crap out of almost everything for hundreds of years, but employment has never been higher. Automation leads to higher productivity, cheaper goods and services, increased need for technical skills, thus higher wages and higher demand. Of course there can be some painful periods of adjustment, but that’s often caused by misguided policy trying to hold back the tide and delay the inevitable. Ultimately yes, full no holds barred human level AI may well render human labour obsolete, but we’re a very long way away from that. I know some people think LLMs are close to that already, but no, not even remotely close. I do believe strong AI is possible and maybe even inevitable. They’re a huge step forward, and are easily the biggest advance towards strong AI in my lifetime, but these things are just tools.
  - avereveard 4y ago
    We have been automating at the beginning of the production chain , mostly. This is the first automation that targets directly knowledge workers, and hit almost all of them but those in profession where error can cause people deaths. Traditionally knowledge workers were the bulk of the middle class, because well it takes 30 years to produce one and not all make the cut, so they are paid market prices instead of minimum wages. And by that nature, knowledge workers cannot reinvent themselves overnight, there will nowhere left to go for them. Maybe lawyers and medics and a few other can entrenche themselves with legislation, but if you are a knowledge worker in a non union field things look scary.

ilyt 4y ago

Housing situation isn't there because there isn't enough people to build houses...

ilaksh 4y ago

Robotics will rapidly pick up improved capabilities. With so many people out of work and so much automation being consolidated, what do you think all the entrepreneurs and researchers will look to next? It will be breakthroughs and efficiency improvements in robotics . I think this "learn a trade" plan has maybe 5 years max. By then the trades will also be automated.

BirdieNZ 4y ago
I'm not a gambling man but if I was I would put a very large amount of my net worth on a bet that no trades will be automated in 5 years time. Not a single one.
philipkglass 4y ago
Progress is slower in the world of atoms than in the world of information. I watched the progress from the first DARPA Grand Challenge for self-driving cars (2004, no car made it to the finish line) to the Urban Challenge in 2007 (many cars succeeded in a much more complicated environment) and thought that self driving vehicles would soon be commercialized. But there are 10,000 "last 1%" cases left to handle and we still don't have good enough systems to replace truck drivers or cab drivers today. Replacing jobs like plumber or electrician looks even harder than self driving vehicles because it requires far more intricate physical manipulation and perception than driving on public roads.
- sudosysgen 4y ago
  It's fine to automate 99% of it if the 1% can be somewhat efficiently taken over by humans. LLMs suffer the same issues.
RecycledEle 4y ago
I think trades will be around for a century. The problem is dealing with crazy existing stuff, like houses that are not to code and have been repaired by the last 3 owners, all of whom made it up as they went. Good trades people are able to figure out what the last idiot was thinking, know how it is supposed to work, and can make it work (without callbacks) for a long time with minimal intervention. I remember a college professor who cashed out his retirement in the mid-1990's to start his own online college. He went broke in less than a decade, and we still have not removed professors from the colleges. As a teacher, I do think that ChatGPT will replace most textbooks and teachers, but I don't know how long that will take.