11 ms·

Japan Breaks with U.S. Allies, Buys Russian Oil at Prices Above Cap

102 points by ibobev 4y ago

Overtonwindow 4y ago
Tokyo won exception to rules binding G-7 nations.... Japan got the U.S. to agree to the exception...
- labrador 4y ago
  That's what I was thinking. There must be some temporary advantage to this.
reducesuffering 4y ago
Money quote: 'It’s not as if Japan can’t manage without this. They can. They simply don’t want to,” said James Brown, a professor at Temple University’s Japan campus. Prof. Brown, who studies Russia-Japan relations, said Japan should move to withdraw from the Sakhalin projects eventually “if they’re really serious about supporting Ukraine.” Mitsui & Co. and Mitsubishi Corp. , two Japanese companies, collectively own a 22.5% stake in Sakhalin-2 and successfully pushed to maintain the stake last year with backing from Tokyo' At least one middling positive of the invasion has been a litmus test for the levels of integrity of various countries. Russia annexed Crimea almost a decade ago. If you haven't read the writing on the wall and maneuvered independence you're incompetent or immoral.
- rayiner 4y ago
  > At least one middling positive of the invasion has been a litmus test for the levels of integrity of various countries. Russia annexed Crimea almost a decade ago. If you haven't read the writing on the wall and maneuvered independence you're incompetent or immoral. I can’t really parse this. Why should Japan care about Crimea or Ukraine?
  - ben_w 4y ago
    Looking at OSM, the sea borders of Russia and Japan touch. That seems like a good reason for Japan to care about what Russia is doing to another country it shares a border with.
    - gatlin 4y ago
      Is the unstated assumption here that Russia is mindlessly belligerent and going to attack any neighbor for any reason?
      - adriancr 4y ago
        That seems to be its history, so yes. Although reason seems mostly to expand, you probably meant with any pretext.
        gatlin 4y ago
        We have experienced different realities. There is no point in trying to discuss this.
      - ben_w 4y ago
        Mindlessly belligerent, yes. "Any reason" is a bit of a stretch — I doubt Putin has a dice with country names on it — but given how dumb it was to invade Ukraine, it's not unreasonable to assume he's dumb enough to try Japan.
        EGreg 4y ago
        [flagged]
        adriancr 4y ago
        It seems you can't really handle OP being right and have resorted to what-about-ism. So it seems you have conceded the argument and agree that Russia is mindlessly belligerent and now are saying that's fine because you think x-y-z are also belligerent? (Wrong but eh, not the subject of discussion).
- baybal2 4y ago
  > Japan should move to withdraw from the Sakhalin projects eventually “if they’re really serious about supporting Ukraine.” What an irony. Japan has to buy its own oil from Russia, from the island Russia seized from Japan.
  - sampa 4y ago
    it wasn't 'seized'. it was lost because Japan lost in WW2. they had it coming partnering with Hitler and going against USSR and Allies. also they murdered millions of people in very sadistic ways
    - baybal2 4y ago
      [dead]
- Eumenes 4y ago
  [flagged]
  - rythmshifter 4y ago
    yeah they're so tired of it that they asked for and received the blessing of the White House to do this.
- Ekaros 4y ago
  >At least one middling positive of the invasion has been a litmus test for the levels of integrity of various countries. Russia annexed Crimea almost a decade ago. If you haven't read the writing on the wall and maneuvered independence you're incompetent or immoral. After invasion of Iraq over 20 years ago it was clear that there is absolutely zero integrity anywhere in this world.
defrost 4y ago
In related news; backstory [1]: Australia is the biggest supplier of energy and key minerals to Japan, reflecting Australia’s position as a reliable, safe and competitive producer of raw resources. Australia provides around two-thirds of Japan’s coal, and a third of Japan’s LNG imports. Australia also provides about 60 per cent of Japan’s iron ore imports. and, just the other day [2]: The head of Japan's biggest oil and gas producer has warned that Australia risks undermining global security through a decision to "quietly quit" the international gas trade. In an extraordinary speech delivered at a federal parliamentary event on Thursday, Inpex chief executive Takayuki Ueda suggested Japan had been rattled by government interventions in Australia's gas industry. [1] https://japan.embassy.gov.au/tkyo/resources.html https://japan.embassy.gov.au/tkyo/resources.html [2] https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-03-30/japan-warns-world-peace-at-stake-in-australian-gas-exit/102167908 https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-03-30/japan-warns-world-pea...
- yosito 4y ago
  Is your unspoken claim that Japan bought Russian gas because Australia just suddenly refused to sell gas anymore?
  - defrost 4y ago
    I haven't made any claim, I've reported two factoids and backed them with solid references to allow readers to verify and pursue that angle for themselves. FWiW I was part of a mineral and energy intelligence group started decades ago that was sold onto S&P a decade ago ( mineral arm at [1] ) and the protocol there was to report solid factoids backed by solid references and where applicable create GIS links. That was the product many paid good money to subscribe to, not our opinions or claims. [1] https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/campaigns/metals-mining https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/campaigns/met...
    - John23832 4y ago
      > I haven't made any claim, I've reported two factoids and backed them with solid references to allow readers to verify and pursue that angle for themselves. And for what reason? The world is full of infinite factoids, but you chose to post this? It's not unreasonable for someone to ask what you intend to purport.
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
user3939382 4y ago
Anyone who's been paying attention I believe would agree that our foreign policy around Ukraine has come at a huge cost not only to us financially and economically, but also to our foreign relations. Under this conflict our relations with China, India, Brazil, Saudi Arabia -- these are important partners -- have degraded. Having watched that unfold, this isn't a surprise to me.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- ericmay 4y ago
  Well. China relationship is strained for many reasons, Ukraine and their general support for Russia conducting the war is just icing on the cake. This has strained Chinese relations with multiple countries though (UK, EU members, etc.). India I’m not seeing much in the way of change. The US at least didn’t really do anything different with India buying Russian oil. US relations with South American companies are variable and generally slightly negative based on what I’ve seen, but I’m not really sure how they have gotten worse. What is leading you to believe that they are? Saudi Arabia I somewhat agree with but think Middle East politics are extremely complex. Wouldn’t read much into Chinese efforts there. On the other hand, the US has shored up massive support from all of Europe ex Belarus, Japan, South Korea, Canada, and Australia at a minimum. Finland joins NATO tomorrow. Overall I’d say the war has been a large boost to American foreign relations on the whole. Can’t please everyone anyway. W.r.t cost -> everybody is spending money. Russia especially.
  - pastacacioepepe 4y ago
    On the contrary this looks like the beginning of the end of USA global hegemony. The dollar relevance is degrading and while the west is siding closer with the USA, the rest of the world is distancing itself from them. > On the other hand, the US has shored up massive support from all of Europe ex Belarus, Japan Regarding Japan this very news article contradicts you somehow. > Finland joins NATO tomorrow. Finland is insignificant from a geopolitical point of view. Its joining NATO only makes NATO less secure as a whole, rather than strenghtening it.
riffraff 4y ago
but the "URALS crude" oil price is already below the cap (49 vs 60[0]) isn't it? So, yeah of course Japan won the chance to buy it at a higher price. [0] https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/67 https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/67
csomar 4y ago
The next few weeks/months are going to be very interesting. Saudi Arabia has doubled down on its new direction. Japan/EU seems at edge with the war in Ukraine. China is making new moves in the global financial scene. The US has accumulated significant political debt in the recent years. They have significantly abused their position with the US dollars hegemony. In this recent conflict, the cost burdened Europe and the allies more than the US. Europe, except for Poland and the Baltics, does not seem to be too enthusiastic for this war. I wonder if the US has a joker card or the downfall risk being a spectacular one.
- boeingUH60 4y ago
  Maybe the US can finally invade Saudi Arabia, lol Edit: Was just making a joke. I’m not a warmonger.
  - csomar 4y ago
    The US has significant military presence in the whole middle-east. I think the Saudis know that, now, the US does really not want to open a new front. Especially with the Taiwan/China situation. Invading Saudi Arabia is really complex because there is more oil coming from there than Saudi Arabia itself. Expect oil prices over $500 overnight.
- boringg 4y ago
  Can you describe why you think the US has "significantly abused their position with the US dollars hegemony."
  - GartzenDeHaes 4y ago
    Maybe the 40% currency devaluation?
  - csomar 4y ago
    FATCA, protectionism hidden behind AML/KYC, money printing at the expense of the other countries' reserves, sanctions or the threat of sanctions, political requests for IMF/WB funding, etc... Really, it's a shitshow and the US is rarely the good guy here.
petodo 4y ago
[flagged]
mjburgess 4y ago
I think we need a HN policy on paywalled articles. I cannot read this -- what's the value of this being on the HN front-page?
- rcarr 4y ago
  Just stick it in this, normally works https://archive.ph/ https://archive.ph/
- figassis 4y ago
  Agree, I'm always doing CTRL+F "archiv". Whoever shares these, can they start providing only the archived version? Is there some copyright issue with that?
- dang 4y ago
  https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10178989 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10178989 If there's a workaround, it's ok. Users usually post workarounds in the thread. This is in the FAQ at https://news.ycombinator.com/newsfaq.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsfaq.html and there's more explanation here: https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&sort=byDate&type=comment&query=paywalls%20by:dang https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&so...
carlivar 4y ago
https://archive.ph/NHWxq https://archive.ph/NHWxq
John23832 4y ago
Everyone here is missing the obvious. OPEC+ just cut. Japan is a massive energy consumer. They need to shore up their supply. This also gives Russia a good will gesture. The agreement to buy Russian oil was Ok'd by the US. This isn't a break, is coordination.
- corbulo 4y ago
  Japan is also geographically not in the best place for non-Russian energy.
yucky 4y ago
We're watching history unfold slowly, in real time, as the unipolar world run by the US over the last 30 years is turning into a multipolar world. You can't put the toothpaste back in the tube, and this was both entirely predictable and widely predicted.

102 points by ibobev 4y ago

Overtonwindow 4y ago

Tokyo won exception to rules binding G-7 nations.... Japan got the U.S. to agree to the exception...

labrador 4y ago
That's what I was thinking. There must be some temporary advantage to this.

reducesuffering 4y ago

Money quote: 'It’s not as if Japan can’t manage without this. They can. They simply don’t want to,” said James Brown, a professor at Temple University’s Japan campus. Prof. Brown, who studies Russia-Japan relations, said Japan should move to withdraw from the Sakhalin projects eventually “if they’re really serious about supporting Ukraine.” Mitsui & Co. and Mitsubishi Corp. , two Japanese companies, collectively own a 22.5% stake in Sakhalin-2 and successfully pushed to maintain the stake last year with backing from Tokyo' At least one middling positive of the invasion has been a litmus test for the levels of integrity of various countries. Russia annexed Crimea almost a decade ago. If you haven't read the writing on the wall and maneuvered independence you're incompetent or immoral.

rayiner 4y ago
> At least one middling positive of the invasion has been a litmus test for the levels of integrity of various countries. Russia annexed Crimea almost a decade ago. If you haven't read the writing on the wall and maneuvered independence you're incompetent or immoral. I can’t really parse this. Why should Japan care about Crimea or Ukraine?
- ben_w 4y ago
  Looking at OSM, the sea borders of Russia and Japan touch. That seems like a good reason for Japan to care about what Russia is doing to another country it shares a border with.
  - gatlin 4y ago
    Is the unstated assumption here that Russia is mindlessly belligerent and going to attack any neighbor for any reason?
    - adriancr 4y ago
      That seems to be its history, so yes. Although reason seems mostly to expand, you probably meant with any pretext.
      - gatlin 4y ago
        We have experienced different realities. There is no point in trying to discuss this.
    - ben_w 4y ago
      Mindlessly belligerent, yes. "Any reason" is a bit of a stretch — I doubt Putin has a dice with country names on it — but given how dumb it was to invade Ukraine, it's not unreasonable to assume he's dumb enough to try Japan.
      - EGreg 4y ago
        [flagged]
        adriancr 4y ago
        It seems you can't really handle OP being right and have resorted to what-about-ism. So it seems you have conceded the argument and agree that Russia is mindlessly belligerent and now are saying that's fine because you think x-y-z are also belligerent? (Wrong but eh, not the subject of discussion).
baybal2 4y ago
> Japan should move to withdraw from the Sakhalin projects eventually “if they’re really serious about supporting Ukraine.” What an irony. Japan has to buy its own oil from Russia, from the island Russia seized from Japan.
- sampa 4y ago
  it wasn't 'seized'. it was lost because Japan lost in WW2. they had it coming partnering with Hitler and going against USSR and Allies. also they murdered millions of people in very sadistic ways
  - baybal2 4y ago
    [dead]
Eumenes 4y ago
[flagged]
- rythmshifter 4y ago
  yeah they're so tired of it that they asked for and received the blessing of the White House to do this.
Ekaros 4y ago
>At least one middling positive of the invasion has been a litmus test for the levels of integrity of various countries. Russia annexed Crimea almost a decade ago. If you haven't read the writing on the wall and maneuvered independence you're incompetent or immoral. After invasion of Iraq over 20 years ago it was clear that there is absolutely zero integrity anywhere in this world.

defrost 4y ago

In related news; backstory [1]: Australia is the biggest supplier of energy and key minerals to Japan, reflecting Australia’s position as a reliable, safe and competitive producer of raw resources. Australia provides around two-thirds of Japan’s coal, and a third of Japan’s LNG imports. Australia also provides about 60 per cent of Japan’s iron ore imports. and, just the other day [2]: The head of Japan's biggest oil and gas producer has warned that Australia risks undermining global security through a decision to "quietly quit" the international gas trade. In an extraordinary speech delivered at a federal parliamentary event on Thursday, Inpex chief executive Takayuki Ueda suggested Japan had been rattled by government interventions in Australia's gas industry. [1] https://japan.embassy.gov.au/tkyo/resources.html https://japan.embassy.gov.au/tkyo/resources.html [2] https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-03-30/japan-warns-world-peace-at-stake-in-australian-gas-exit/102167908 https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-03-30/japan-warns-world-pea...

yosito 4y ago
Is your unspoken claim that Japan bought Russian gas because Australia just suddenly refused to sell gas anymore?
- defrost 4y ago
  I haven't made any claim, I've reported two factoids and backed them with solid references to allow readers to verify and pursue that angle for themselves. FWiW I was part of a mineral and energy intelligence group started decades ago that was sold onto S&P a decade ago ( mineral arm at [1] ) and the protocol there was to report solid factoids backed by solid references and where applicable create GIS links. That was the product many paid good money to subscribe to, not our opinions or claims. [1] https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/campaigns/metals-mining https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/campaigns/met...
  - John23832 4y ago
    > I haven't made any claim, I've reported two factoids and backed them with solid references to allow readers to verify and pursue that angle for themselves. And for what reason? The world is full of infinite factoids, but you chose to post this? It's not unreasonable for someone to ask what you intend to purport.

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]

user3939382 4y ago

Anyone who's been paying attention I believe would agree that our foreign policy around Ukraine has come at a huge cost not only to us financially and economically, but also to our foreign relations. Under this conflict our relations with China, India, Brazil, Saudi Arabia -- these are important partners -- have degraded. Having watched that unfold, this isn't a surprise to me.

deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
ericmay 4y ago
Well. China relationship is strained for many reasons, Ukraine and their general support for Russia conducting the war is just icing on the cake. This has strained Chinese relations with multiple countries though (UK, EU members, etc.). India I’m not seeing much in the way of change. The US at least didn’t really do anything different with India buying Russian oil. US relations with South American companies are variable and generally slightly negative based on what I’ve seen, but I’m not really sure how they have gotten worse. What is leading you to believe that they are? Saudi Arabia I somewhat agree with but think Middle East politics are extremely complex. Wouldn’t read much into Chinese efforts there. On the other hand, the US has shored up massive support from all of Europe ex Belarus, Japan, South Korea, Canada, and Australia at a minimum. Finland joins NATO tomorrow. Overall I’d say the war has been a large boost to American foreign relations on the whole. Can’t please everyone anyway. W.r.t cost -> everybody is spending money. Russia especially.
- pastacacioepepe 4y ago
  On the contrary this looks like the beginning of the end of USA global hegemony. The dollar relevance is degrading and while the west is siding closer with the USA, the rest of the world is distancing itself from them. > On the other hand, the US has shored up massive support from all of Europe ex Belarus, Japan Regarding Japan this very news article contradicts you somehow. > Finland joins NATO tomorrow. Finland is insignificant from a geopolitical point of view. Its joining NATO only makes NATO less secure as a whole, rather than strenghtening it.

riffraff 4y ago

but the "URALS crude" oil price is already below the cap (49 vs 60[0]) isn't it? So, yeah of course Japan won the chance to buy it at a higher price. [0] https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/67 https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/67

csomar 4y ago

The next few weeks/months are going to be very interesting. Saudi Arabia has doubled down on its new direction. Japan/EU seems at edge with the war in Ukraine. China is making new moves in the global financial scene. The US has accumulated significant political debt in the recent years. They have significantly abused their position with the US dollars hegemony. In this recent conflict, the cost burdened Europe and the allies more than the US. Europe, except for Poland and the Baltics, does not seem to be too enthusiastic for this war. I wonder if the US has a joker card or the downfall risk being a spectacular one.

boeingUH60 4y ago
Maybe the US can finally invade Saudi Arabia, lol Edit: Was just making a joke. I’m not a warmonger.
- csomar 4y ago
  The US has significant military presence in the whole middle-east. I think the Saudis know that, now, the US does really not want to open a new front. Especially with the Taiwan/China situation. Invading Saudi Arabia is really complex because there is more oil coming from there than Saudi Arabia itself. Expect oil prices over $500 overnight.
boringg 4y ago
Can you describe why you think the US has "significantly abused their position with the US dollars hegemony."
- GartzenDeHaes 4y ago
  Maybe the 40% currency devaluation?
- csomar 4y ago
  FATCA, protectionism hidden behind AML/KYC, money printing at the expense of the other countries' reserves, sanctions or the threat of sanctions, political requests for IMF/WB funding, etc... Really, it's a shitshow and the US is rarely the good guy here.

petodo 4y ago

[flagged]

mjburgess 4y ago

I think we need a HN policy on paywalled articles. I cannot read this -- what's the value of this being on the HN front-page?

rcarr 4y ago
Just stick it in this, normally works https://archive.ph/ https://archive.ph/
figassis 4y ago
Agree, I'm always doing CTRL+F "archiv". Whoever shares these, can they start providing only the archived version? Is there some copyright issue with that?
dang 4y ago
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10178989 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10178989 If there's a workaround, it's ok. Users usually post workarounds in the thread. This is in the FAQ at https://news.ycombinator.com/newsfaq.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsfaq.html and there's more explanation here: https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&sort=byDate&type=comment&query=paywalls%20by:dang https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&so...

carlivar 4y ago

https://archive.ph/NHWxq https://archive.ph/NHWxq

John23832 4y ago

Everyone here is missing the obvious. OPEC+ just cut. Japan is a massive energy consumer. They need to shore up their supply. This also gives Russia a good will gesture. The agreement to buy Russian oil was Ok'd by the US. This isn't a break, is coordination.

corbulo 4y ago
Japan is also geographically not in the best place for non-Russian energy.

yucky 4y ago

We're watching history unfold slowly, in real time, as the unipolar world run by the US over the last 30 years is turning into a multipolar world. You can't put the toothpaste back in the tube, and this was both entirely predictable and widely predicted.