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This is the one moment he has been waiting his entire life for. He literally waited his entire life for this moment, obviously he's gonna milk it to every drop

This is the one moment he has been waiting his entire life for. He literally waited his entire life for this moment, obviously he's gonna milk it to every drop.

scarmig 4y ago
Self-aggrandizement isn't anything foreign to Eliezer, but he's genuinely terrified. Milking it for every drop doesn't really capture what he's doing.
- anongraddebt 4y ago
  Yeah, I wonder sometimes how many people gloss over what it would mean for an “ASI” to exist. We would - if successful - effectively be creating a supernatural being (at least, there wouldn’t be much of a distinction between it and one). Sure, there’s hype, and FUD, and fatalism, etc. But, if you believe the creation of such a thing is within your lifetime then it would be difficult to find many higher priority issues to prepare for/help solve/vote on/etc. In reality, we all likely still downplay the risk by assessing the limit on the downside as a relatively quick extinction of life on earth. There are many things one can imagine might be a lot worse than death.
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
  - ilaksh 4y ago
    GPT-4 is superhuman in some ways.
    - tptacek 4y ago
      In the same sense as a Sinclair ZX80 was.
      - sitkack 4y ago
        GPT-4 can tell you where you’re wrong, Sinclair ZX80 cannot.
        tptacek 4y ago
        GPT-4 is an unreasonably effective autocomplete. It's not telling you "where you're wrong". CMD-F in Notes.app tells mhe where I'm wrong in the same sense, as long as I've written the right answer down before.
        tanseydavid 4y ago
        The degree of blithe skepticism you express is difficult to understand. A Sinclair? Please explain what you mean by this comparison.
  - woah 4y ago
    Being forced to read terrible rationalist Harry Potter fanfics over and over again
  - jacobedawson 4y ago
    Agreed this is not discussed often - in a doom scenario, a quick death for everyone might be the best case
- anigbrowl 4y ago
  - AGI is here we're all gonna die - ΞＬＩΞＺΞＲＣＨＩＬＬＯＵＴ - They will destroy us all - Ｉ＇ＭＮＯＴＧＯＩＮＧＴＯＤＯＴＨΛＴ - This may be my last message before they get me - Ｉ＇ＭＪＵＳＴＮＯＴＴＨΛＴＩＮＴＯＹＯＵ - AAAAAAH
scrawl 4y ago
"he's gonna milk it to every drop" is such an odd take. eliezer has long been concerned about AI and the risks it poses to humanity. and for just as long people have called him crazy and made hand-waving arguments for why we shouldn't be concerned. now we're in the midst of an AI arms race and we don't have any good idea how this tech works. it progresses at a truly astonishing rate, where it's become sport to find instances of people saying "AI will never be capable of X" and showing them the latest AI doing X with ease. i think his concern is real and justified. you might disagree, but i don't understand why think he's milking recent developments.
- happymellon 4y ago
  > It's become sport to find instances of people saying "AI will never be capable of X" and showing them the latest AI doing X with ease. Interesting, I've not seen that many educated in technology make that claim that it will never, just that people are surprised that the folks leading this, Microsoft and Google, have a track record of turning their consumer facing products to advertised junk.
  - solarmist 4y ago
    I've seen plenty of people making nearly those claims. Barely qualifying things with phrases like "not in my life." Especially in the arts. Granted, that's dropped dramatically over the last decade since ML started taking off.
- qorrect 4y ago
  > we don't have any good idea how this tech works. Do you mean the specifics of GPT-4, or Transformers in general ?
  - MacsHeadroom 4y ago
    Presumably he means all types of machine learning in general.
  - famouswaffles 4y ago
kvetching 4y ago
The thing is, there's no evidence that the current path will lead to superintelligence. It could be the case that despite feeding a trillion dollars in compute / data to a model, that we still need to hold it's hand to do anything useful. He jumped the gun and he's really tarnished his reputation. How can anyone take him seriously after the insane rhetoric and hyperbole of this article?
- righttoolforjob 4y ago
  That's besides the point. The argument still holds. We don't want to find ourselves with our foot on an exploding mine before we stop walking across the minefield. At that point it is too late.
- G_z9 4y ago
  [flagged]
- flangola7 4y ago
  > The thing is, there's no evidence that the current path will lead to superintelligence. I don't understand how any person paying attention can think this. Just watching the jumps from GPT-2 in 2019 to GPT-4 today makes it clear as day we are rapidly drastically improving capabilities and there's no evidence we will hit a wall any time soon
- FeepingCreature 4y ago
  How can you see the clear jumps in intelligence from GPT-2 to 3 to 4 and not only not believe that this leads to superintelligence, but see no evidence that this leads to superintelligence?

This is the one moment he has been waiting his entire life for. He literally waited his entire life for this moment, obviously he's gonna milk it to every drop.

scarmig 4y ago

Self-aggrandizement isn't anything foreign to Eliezer, but he's genuinely terrified. Milking it for every drop doesn't really capture what he's doing.

anongraddebt 4y ago
Yeah, I wonder sometimes how many people gloss over what it would mean for an “ASI” to exist. We would - if successful - effectively be creating a supernatural being (at least, there wouldn’t be much of a distinction between it and one). Sure, there’s hype, and FUD, and fatalism, etc. But, if you believe the creation of such a thing is within your lifetime then it would be difficult to find many higher priority issues to prepare for/help solve/vote on/etc. In reality, we all likely still downplay the risk by assessing the limit on the downside as a relatively quick extinction of life on earth. There are many things one can imagine might be a lot worse than death.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- ilaksh 4y ago
  GPT-4 is superhuman in some ways.
  - tptacek 4y ago
    In the same sense as a Sinclair ZX80 was.
    - sitkack 4y ago
      GPT-4 can tell you where you’re wrong, Sinclair ZX80 cannot.
      - tptacek 4y ago
        GPT-4 is an unreasonably effective autocomplete. It's not telling you "where you're wrong". CMD-F in Notes.app tells mhe where I'm wrong in the same sense, as long as I've written the right answer down before.
        tanseydavid 4y ago
        The degree of blithe skepticism you express is difficult to understand. A Sinclair? Please explain what you mean by this comparison.
- woah 4y ago
  Being forced to read terrible rationalist Harry Potter fanfics over and over again
- jacobedawson 4y ago
  Agreed this is not discussed often - in a doom scenario, a quick death for everyone might be the best case
anigbrowl 4y ago
- AGI is here we're all gonna die - ΞＬＩΞＺΞＲＣＨＩＬＬＯＵＴ - They will destroy us all - Ｉ＇ＭＮＯＴＧＯＩＮＧＴＯＤＯＴＨΛＴ - This may be my last message before they get me - Ｉ＇ＭＪＵＳＴＮＯＴＴＨΛＴＩＮＴＯＹＯＵ - AAAAAAH

scrawl 4y ago

"he's gonna milk it to every drop" is such an odd take. eliezer has long been concerned about AI and the risks it poses to humanity. and for just as long people have called him crazy and made hand-waving arguments for why we shouldn't be concerned. now we're in the midst of an AI arms race and we don't have any good idea how this tech works. it progresses at a truly astonishing rate, where it's become sport to find instances of people saying "AI will never be capable of X" and showing them the latest AI doing X with ease. i think his concern is real and justified. you might disagree, but i don't understand why think he's milking recent developments.

happymellon 4y ago
> It's become sport to find instances of people saying "AI will never be capable of X" and showing them the latest AI doing X with ease. Interesting, I've not seen that many educated in technology make that claim that it will never, just that people are surprised that the folks leading this, Microsoft and Google, have a track record of turning their consumer facing products to advertised junk.
- solarmist 4y ago
  I've seen plenty of people making nearly those claims. Barely qualifying things with phrases like "not in my life." Especially in the arts. Granted, that's dropped dramatically over the last decade since ML started taking off.
qorrect 4y ago
> we don't have any good idea how this tech works. Do you mean the specifics of GPT-4, or Transformers in general ?
- MacsHeadroom 4y ago
  Presumably he means all types of machine learning in general.
- famouswaffles 4y ago

kvetching 4y ago

The thing is, there's no evidence that the current path will lead to superintelligence. It could be the case that despite feeding a trillion dollars in compute / data to a model, that we still need to hold it's hand to do anything useful. He jumped the gun and he's really tarnished his reputation. How can anyone take him seriously after the insane rhetoric and hyperbole of this article?

righttoolforjob 4y ago
That's besides the point. The argument still holds. We don't want to find ourselves with our foot on an exploding mine before we stop walking across the minefield. At that point it is too late.
G_z9 4y ago
[flagged]
flangola7 4y ago
> The thing is, there's no evidence that the current path will lead to superintelligence. I don't understand how any person paying attention can think this. Just watching the jumps from GPT-2 in 2019 to GPT-4 today makes it clear as day we are rapidly drastically improving capabilities and there's no evidence we will hit a wall any time soon
FeepingCreature 4y ago
How can you see the clear jumps in intelligence from GPT-2 to 3 to 4 and not only not believe that this leads to superintelligence, but see no evidence that this leads to superintelligence?