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I wouldn't worry. It's code output is 50% garbage. I'm not in fear of my job. All the hypsters assuming this will destroy lawyers, accountants, doctors etc clea

I wouldn't worry. It's code output is 50% garbage. I'm not in fear of my job. All the hypsters assuming this will destroy lawyers, accountants, doctors etc clearly don't understand correctness isn't something they can just tag on to a prediction machine.

glimshe 4y ago
Next version will be 40% garbage. Then 30%, then 20%... And we got to the point where it has as much garbage as human code.
- mejutoco 4y ago
  It might be stick on the last 10% garbage, just like self-driving cars. Clearly it is an important change, but for some fields 90% might not be enough. Personally, I think we will do more and more complicated things instead of just being done with programming.
- tome 4y ago
  How do you know that?
- nprateem 4y ago
  That's what you might expect, but it requires another breakthrough IMO. From what I understand of LLMs, they can't be incrementally improved to add logical reasoning since they're just guessing the next word. It's impressive and fine in many cases, but there are many where it's not enough.
  - HDThoreaun 4y ago
    They already have some form of reasoning though. GPT4 can solve novel problems. It's certainly not incredible at it, but the incremental logical reasoning improvements have already begun.
  - antibasilisk 4y ago
    They do logically reason, that's the whole point.
    - nprateem 4y ago
      They claim to. But there's no inherent understanding. Otherwise they could do maths and reason correctly about code. It's just probabilities.
      - antibasilisk 4y ago
        But they do often seem to reason correctly about code.
- Ekaros 4y ago
  What is lower bound of the garbage that we reach let's say in 20 years? Is it sufficiently low that you don't need someone to go over the output carefully? And if it fails that it won't destroy any lives?
crop_rotation 4y ago
Can you show me sample prompts where GPT4 gives garbage? I am yet to find one.
- scotty79 4y ago
  Ask it to show you an example of how to use nom parser in Rust and try to compile and run the example. Try a few times and ask for more complex example.
- nprateem 4y ago
  I was trying to create an AWS IAM policy restricted to assumed roles. I didn't know you can't use assumed roles in principalArn conditions blocks but must refer to the IAM role instead. Gpt4 happily wasted an hour by shuffling the conditions around etc instead of telling me this. Sometimes it's policies were even malformed, and in all cases they didn't work.
  - ilaksh 4y ago
    Did you try giving GPT4 the relevant documentation akong with your query?
    - nprateem 4y ago
      Without wanting to sound arsey, why should I have to? If I'd had the relevant docs to hand I wouldn't have needed it. This is the problem IMO. The model needs to somehow learn that out of its entire training set, the single sentence in the AWS docs saying not to use the assumed role ARN takes precedence over any patterns it may have learnt elsewhere in this specific situation.
      - yodon 4y ago
        What you are describing is very different from the hallucination behavior of GPT-3 and GPT-3.5. Yes, GPT-4 came up with an incorrect answer, but it's an incorrect answer an experienced programmer could legitimately have come up with, and one they probably would have come up with before actually testing their code against the AWS endpoints. GPT-4 sometimes gets hard questions wrong. GPT-3 and GPT-3.5 make up nonsense. If a coworker told you GPT-4's answer, you'd say they were wrong but you wouldn't say they were hallucinating. If a co-worker gave you GPT-3 or GPT-3.5's answer you'd definitely doubt their sanity.
astronads 4y ago
This mindset just artificially downplays the fact that it will get incrementally better, multiple times, and strikingly quickly. It’s insanely shortsighted IMO. You don’t have to believe AI is the next coming of Jesus to recognize it’s reached a point (or soon will) to be genuinely disruptive. Corporate execs will absolutely and quickly pursue using AI to reduce costs and speed up development. At the expense of employees.
- nprateem 4y ago
  See my other comment. I think logical rigour requires another breakthrough.

glimshe 4y ago

Next version will be 40% garbage. Then 30%, then 20%... And we got to the point where it has as much garbage as human code.

mejutoco 4y ago
It might be stick on the last 10% garbage, just like self-driving cars. Clearly it is an important change, but for some fields 90% might not be enough. Personally, I think we will do more and more complicated things instead of just being done with programming.
tome 4y ago
How do you know that?
nprateem 4y ago
That's what you might expect, but it requires another breakthrough IMO. From what I understand of LLMs, they can't be incrementally improved to add logical reasoning since they're just guessing the next word. It's impressive and fine in many cases, but there are many where it's not enough.
- HDThoreaun 4y ago
  They already have some form of reasoning though. GPT4 can solve novel problems. It's certainly not incredible at it, but the incremental logical reasoning improvements have already begun.
- antibasilisk 4y ago
  They do logically reason, that's the whole point.
  - nprateem 4y ago
    They claim to. But there's no inherent understanding. Otherwise they could do maths and reason correctly about code. It's just probabilities.
    - antibasilisk 4y ago
      But they do often seem to reason correctly about code.
Ekaros 4y ago
What is lower bound of the garbage that we reach let's say in 20 years? Is it sufficiently low that you don't need someone to go over the output carefully? And if it fails that it won't destroy any lives?

crop_rotation 4y ago

Can you show me sample prompts where GPT4 gives garbage? I am yet to find one.

scotty79 4y ago
Ask it to show you an example of how to use nom parser in Rust and try to compile and run the example. Try a few times and ask for more complex example.
nprateem 4y ago
I was trying to create an AWS IAM policy restricted to assumed roles. I didn't know you can't use assumed roles in principalArn conditions blocks but must refer to the IAM role instead. Gpt4 happily wasted an hour by shuffling the conditions around etc instead of telling me this. Sometimes it's policies were even malformed, and in all cases they didn't work.
- ilaksh 4y ago
  Did you try giving GPT4 the relevant documentation akong with your query?
  - nprateem 4y ago
    Without wanting to sound arsey, why should I have to? If I'd had the relevant docs to hand I wouldn't have needed it. This is the problem IMO. The model needs to somehow learn that out of its entire training set, the single sentence in the AWS docs saying not to use the assumed role ARN takes precedence over any patterns it may have learnt elsewhere in this specific situation.
    - yodon 4y ago
      What you are describing is very different from the hallucination behavior of GPT-3 and GPT-3.5. Yes, GPT-4 came up with an incorrect answer, but it's an incorrect answer an experienced programmer could legitimately have come up with, and one they probably would have come up with before actually testing their code against the AWS endpoints. GPT-4 sometimes gets hard questions wrong. GPT-3 and GPT-3.5 make up nonsense. If a coworker told you GPT-4's answer, you'd say they were wrong but you wouldn't say they were hallucinating. If a co-worker gave you GPT-3 or GPT-3.5's answer you'd definitely doubt their sanity.

astronads 4y ago

This mindset just artificially downplays the fact that it will get incrementally better, multiple times, and strikingly quickly. It’s insanely shortsighted IMO. You don’t have to believe AI is the next coming of Jesus to recognize it’s reached a point (or soon will) to be genuinely disruptive. Corporate execs will absolutely and quickly pursue using AI to reduce costs and speed up development. At the expense of employees.

nprateem 4y ago
See my other comment. I think logical rigour requires another breakthrough.