5 ms·

Is that the same Peter Schiff that said gold was going to $5,000/oz in 2012?

by zoltar 4y ago

sph 4y ago
Person that made a bad prediction in their life should never be listened to ever again, for everything they say is wrong. Show me anyone that predicted two consecutive macroeconomic trends, ever.
- contravariant 4y ago
  If, as you your second sentence seems to suggest, nobody ever managed to get it right twice then we shouldn't listen to people how made a good prediction either.
- paulpauper 4y ago
  he made many bad predictions, and continued to double down on them: dollar collapse, $5k+ gold, emerging markets boom, bitcoin crash, hyperinflation, bear market, recession, etc. every year He never deviated from his predictions or view even when shown to be wrong. He never stopped to consider maybe he was wrong, not that the economy is wrong.
  - Operative0198 4y ago
    He isn't wrong on any of those predictions. The dollar has never been at a more precarious position (on a hyper-inflation course and the BRICS are pondering about adopting the Yuan). Bitcoin (who knows what's coming next, but for sure never seeing 70K again) Hyperinflation (pretty obvious) Bear market (most of 2022 was in one, and most probably this year will follow) Recession (high certainty this will happen. Fed's soft landing is a mirage, history shows a rate cut after aggressive hiking usually leads into one) Schiff is not outright wrong on his predictions. He just never gave time stipulations for his predictions.
    - riffraff 4y ago
      Do you realize hyperinflation is generally defined to be 50% per month? February US inflation is 6% year over year. This is orders of magnitude below "hyper".
      - Operative0198 4y ago
        And the definition of a recession was rescinded last year by the White House. Is inflation for you better now than it was in 2019?
        Dylan16807 4y ago
        > And the definition of a recession was rescinded last year by the White House. It what? Also if you predict a recession every year you'll eventually get one right, but that doesn't make you right about recession predictions in general. > Is inflation for you better now than it was in 2019? Did he predict "higher than 2019"? If "higher than 2019" wasn't his prediction then I don't see why it matters that "higher than 2019" happened. And that's not much of a prediction. 2019's inflation was below target.
        Operative0198 4y ago
        > It what? Muddied the definition of a recession when the question came up. > Also if you predict a recession every year you'll eventually get one right, but that doesn't make you right about recession predictions in general. Yep. That's pretty much the game of predictions. > 2019's inflation was below target. Which target? The one the Fed determines? Consumer inflation at the moment (~7%) is rivalling rates witnessed back in the 80s. Add the new money the Fed has printed over time (since 2008) and now expected to continue (covid stimulus, bailouts for banks etc.), anyone can see where the trend for inflation is going. No predictions are even needed for that.
        Dylan16807 4y ago
        > Yep. That's pretty much the game of predictions. So you agree the recession prediction is not evidence for Shiff's competence? > Which target? 2% > Consumer inflation at the moment (~7%) is rivalling rates witnessed back in the 80s. Add the new money the Fed has printed over time (since 2008) and now expected to continue (covid stimulus, bailouts for banks etc.), anyone can see where the trend for inflation is going. No predictions are even needed for that. ...have you looked at the trend, though? Inflation was climbing higher and higher until last June, and then it dropped by more than half. For the last 3-8 months the inflation rate has been about 4%.
fyzix 4y ago
Schiff didn't account for the economic ignorance of the masses in his prediction. He understood that runaway inflation would cause the gold price to spike, he didn't foresee the confidence that traders have in the FED to fight off inflation. The FED cannot win the inflation fight (confirmed by their recent soft pivot back to QE) and gold will not go up until the traders realize this fact.
- sanp 4y ago
  Ah! Blame the economic ignorance of the masses and the traders. Peter was always right even if reality turned out to be different.
- dragonwriter 4y ago
  > Schiff didn’t account for the economic ignorance of the masses in his prediction. Literally every economic misprediction can be blamed on not accounting for the way people actually behave in real-world economies, but…that’s not something that adds credibility for the next prediction by the same predictor.
  - fyzix 4y ago
    1.decade of 0% apr >>> 2.high inflation >>> 3.gold price surge We have gotten 1 and 2 but we haven't gotten to 3 because traders believe that the FED can win the inflation fight. The FED abandoned the inflation fight with a soft pivot yet traders are still not buying gold. This is what Peter couldn't foresee...traders' unwillingness to go against the FED. This is not a misprediction because in any sane world, the prospects of very high inflation would result in a spike of the gold price.
    - bruce511 4y ago
      >> This is not a misprediction because in any sane world, Describing any part of the financial system as sane (rational) is laughable. The system is built on the irrational nature of people. In some absurd way, bank runs are an expression of actual rationality - give me my cold hard cash now, I don't trust you lot anymore.

Is that the same Peter Schiff that said gold was going to $5,000/oz in 2012?

by zoltar 4y ago

Is that the same Peter Schiff that said gold was going to $5,000/oz in 2012?

sph 4y ago

Person that made a bad prediction in their life should never be listened to ever again, for everything they say is wrong. Show me anyone that predicted two consecutive macroeconomic trends, ever.

contravariant 4y ago
If, as you your second sentence seems to suggest, nobody ever managed to get it right twice then we shouldn't listen to people how made a good prediction either.
paulpauper 4y ago
he made many bad predictions, and continued to double down on them: dollar collapse, $5k+ gold, emerging markets boom, bitcoin crash, hyperinflation, bear market, recession, etc. every year He never deviated from his predictions or view even when shown to be wrong. He never stopped to consider maybe he was wrong, not that the economy is wrong.
- Operative0198 4y ago
  He isn't wrong on any of those predictions. The dollar has never been at a more precarious position (on a hyper-inflation course and the BRICS are pondering about adopting the Yuan). Bitcoin (who knows what's coming next, but for sure never seeing 70K again) Hyperinflation (pretty obvious) Bear market (most of 2022 was in one, and most probably this year will follow) Recession (high certainty this will happen. Fed's soft landing is a mirage, history shows a rate cut after aggressive hiking usually leads into one) Schiff is not outright wrong on his predictions. He just never gave time stipulations for his predictions.
  - riffraff 4y ago
    Do you realize hyperinflation is generally defined to be 50% per month? February US inflation is 6% year over year. This is orders of magnitude below "hyper".
    - Operative0198 4y ago
      And the definition of a recession was rescinded last year by the White House. Is inflation for you better now than it was in 2019?
      - Dylan16807 4y ago
        > And the definition of a recession was rescinded last year by the White House. It what? Also if you predict a recession every year you'll eventually get one right, but that doesn't make you right about recession predictions in general. > Is inflation for you better now than it was in 2019? Did he predict "higher than 2019"? If "higher than 2019" wasn't his prediction then I don't see why it matters that "higher than 2019" happened. And that's not much of a prediction. 2019's inflation was below target.
        Operative0198 4y ago
        > It what? Muddied the definition of a recession when the question came up. > Also if you predict a recession every year you'll eventually get one right, but that doesn't make you right about recession predictions in general. Yep. That's pretty much the game of predictions. > 2019's inflation was below target. Which target? The one the Fed determines? Consumer inflation at the moment (~7%) is rivalling rates witnessed back in the 80s. Add the new money the Fed has printed over time (since 2008) and now expected to continue (covid stimulus, bailouts for banks etc.), anyone can see where the trend for inflation is going. No predictions are even needed for that.
        Dylan16807 4y ago
        > Yep. That's pretty much the game of predictions. So you agree the recession prediction is not evidence for Shiff's competence? > Which target? 2% > Consumer inflation at the moment (~7%) is rivalling rates witnessed back in the 80s. Add the new money the Fed has printed over time (since 2008) and now expected to continue (covid stimulus, bailouts for banks etc.), anyone can see where the trend for inflation is going. No predictions are even needed for that. ...have you looked at the trend, though? Inflation was climbing higher and higher until last June, and then it dropped by more than half. For the last 3-8 months the inflation rate has been about 4%.

fyzix 4y ago

Schiff didn't account for the economic ignorance of the masses in his prediction. He understood that runaway inflation would cause the gold price to spike, he didn't foresee the confidence that traders have in the FED to fight off inflation. The FED cannot win the inflation fight (confirmed by their recent soft pivot back to QE) and gold will not go up until the traders realize this fact.

sanp 4y ago
Ah! Blame the economic ignorance of the masses and the traders. Peter was always right even if reality turned out to be different.
dragonwriter 4y ago
> Schiff didn’t account for the economic ignorance of the masses in his prediction. Literally every economic misprediction can be blamed on not accounting for the way people actually behave in real-world economies, but…that’s not something that adds credibility for the next prediction by the same predictor.
- fyzix 4y ago
  1.decade of 0% apr >>> 2.high inflation >>> 3.gold price surge We have gotten 1 and 2 but we haven't gotten to 3 because traders believe that the FED can win the inflation fight. The FED abandoned the inflation fight with a soft pivot yet traders are still not buying gold. This is what Peter couldn't foresee...traders' unwillingness to go against the FED. This is not a misprediction because in any sane world, the prospects of very high inflation would result in a spike of the gold price.
  - bruce511 4y ago
    >> This is not a misprediction because in any sane world, Describing any part of the financial system as sane (rational) is laughable. The system is built on the irrational nature of people. In some absurd way, bank runs are an expression of actual rationality - give me my cold hard cash now, I don't trust you lot anymore.