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This is showing a clear misunderstanding of the cause of these low birth rates. If IVF and government run child raising facilities was a real option then they

This is showing a clear misunderstanding of the cause of these low birth rates. If IVF and government run child raising facilities was a real option then they wouldn't need immigrants to do it. Japanese women are not having babies because they don't want to, not because they physically can't. The crisis the rich world is having is that it is no longer possible to raise a family with only a single working adult, and raising a child while both parents are working full time is simply not something that everyone wants to do. It is in effect too time expensive to raise children. Ironically the solution here is to accept a drop in productivity and create a society in which people can stay at home. There is already evidence coming in that the shift to working from home has increased the birth rate in places where it has occurred. Japan needs to fix it's work culture in order to fix it's birthrate issue, end of story.

anovikov 4y ago
It has nothing to do with "crisis in Western societies". It happens everywhere, including in countries that saw a super massive, skyrocketing (10x+ in one generation) increase of median effective incomes. Simply called a "demographic transition": people are not having kids because they can avoid it (contraception) and because there are no social or economic forces coercing them to have kids. Kids can only meaningfully contribute to income once they finish college not at the age of 6 as before when they could start working in the field, there is a decline of influence or religion that used to force people to procreate, and finally, government pension systems, not grown-up kids, fund people in their old age. This is well-researched, started a long time ago, and doesn't need any "negative" economic explanations. Childbirth is in decline because economy gets better, not worse. Chinese per capita income increased 8.76x between 1978 (last year before one-child policy) and 2019, when (since 2016) two babies were allowed for everyone (so few people want a 3rd one it barely bears any significance anymore). Birth rate has decreased from 2.72 to 1.5 - from far above acceptable maximum to well, far below acceptable minimum. It's absurd to compare living standards in China in 1978 and in 2019. These were two completely different countries - West didn't see so much progress in maybe 200+ years. And yet, birth rate fell. One can quote authoritarianism - but well, China was even more authoritarian in 1978. That same thing is true everywhere - there isn't a single country where birth rates were on the rise, while living standards are improving at a good rate in most of the world.
- Turskarama 4y ago
  >It has nothing to do with "crisis in Western societies" Yes, which is why I said RICH countries, not western countries. It would have been strange for me to focus on western countries, given that this thread is about Japan. >and because there are no social or economic forces coercing them to have kids. This is kind of implying that the primary reason people have children is for economic reasons, but in wealthy countries children have been more of an economic burden than benefit and yet most people still choose to have children, though usually just 1 or 2. In fact, this research (https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2013/09/06/chart-of-the-week-big-drop-in-birth-rate-may-be-levelling-off/ https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2013/09/06/chart-of-th...) by the pew research center shows that within a single country (in this case the united states) birth rates are often inversely correlated with economic strength. It actually shows the birth rate increasing between 1940 and 1960, despite the fact that children were an economic burden that entire time. I think the idea of higher income leading to lower birthrates only really applies to countries leaving deep poverty where it is common for children to work for an income. While women might not want to have 8 children, there are a lot of women who would like to have 3 or 4 children, enough to keep the birth rate at or above parity. Among that population, many won't have as many children as they want because they can't afford either the time or the cost of raising them.
  - anovikov 4y ago
    Well, if you take the world overall, birth rates are beyond doubt falling (and are now at or near replacement ratio), while wealth is beyond doubt improving fast and has been for several generations virtually nonstop (even major events like Great Depression or WWII did not stop economic growth for the world overall due to being largely regional).
    - Turskarama 4y ago
      You should look into Simpson's paradox. The fall in birthrates is caused by countries going from undeveloped to developed, but within developed countries the birthrate is higher when the economy is stronger.

anovikov 4y ago

It has nothing to do with "crisis in Western societies". It happens everywhere, including in countries that saw a super massive, skyrocketing (10x+ in one generation) increase of median effective incomes. Simply called a "demographic transition": people are not having kids because they can avoid it (contraception) and because there are no social or economic forces coercing them to have kids. Kids can only meaningfully contribute to income once they finish college not at the age of 6 as before when they could start working in the field, there is a decline of influence or religion that used to force people to procreate, and finally, government pension systems, not grown-up kids, fund people in their old age. This is well-researched, started a long time ago, and doesn't need any "negative" economic explanations. Childbirth is in decline because economy gets better, not worse. Chinese per capita income increased 8.76x between 1978 (last year before one-child policy) and 2019, when (since 2016) two babies were allowed for everyone (so few people want a 3rd one it barely bears any significance anymore). Birth rate has decreased from 2.72 to 1.5 - from far above acceptable maximum to well, far below acceptable minimum. It's absurd to compare living standards in China in 1978 and in 2019. These were two completely different countries - West didn't see so much progress in maybe 200+ years. And yet, birth rate fell. One can quote authoritarianism - but well, China was even more authoritarian in 1978. That same thing is true everywhere - there isn't a single country where birth rates were on the rise, while living standards are improving at a good rate in most of the world.

Turskarama 4y ago
>It has nothing to do with "crisis in Western societies" Yes, which is why I said RICH countries, not western countries. It would have been strange for me to focus on western countries, given that this thread is about Japan. >and because there are no social or economic forces coercing them to have kids. This is kind of implying that the primary reason people have children is for economic reasons, but in wealthy countries children have been more of an economic burden than benefit and yet most people still choose to have children, though usually just 1 or 2. In fact, this research (https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2013/09/06/chart-of-the-week-big-drop-in-birth-rate-may-be-levelling-off/ https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2013/09/06/chart-of-th...) by the pew research center shows that within a single country (in this case the united states) birth rates are often inversely correlated with economic strength. It actually shows the birth rate increasing between 1940 and 1960, despite the fact that children were an economic burden that entire time. I think the idea of higher income leading to lower birthrates only really applies to countries leaving deep poverty where it is common for children to work for an income. While women might not want to have 8 children, there are a lot of women who would like to have 3 or 4 children, enough to keep the birth rate at or above parity. Among that population, many won't have as many children as they want because they can't afford either the time or the cost of raising them.
- anovikov 4y ago
  Well, if you take the world overall, birth rates are beyond doubt falling (and are now at or near replacement ratio), while wealth is beyond doubt improving fast and has been for several generations virtually nonstop (even major events like Great Depression or WWII did not stop economic growth for the world overall due to being largely regional).
  - Turskarama 4y ago
    You should look into Simpson's paradox. The fall in birthrates is caused by countries going from undeveloped to developed, but within developed countries the birthrate is higher when the economy is stronger.