4 ms·

It's worth noting that Japan has higher fertility right now than any peer country in the region, their collapse just started a bit earlier than China/Korea/Taiw

It's worth noting that Japan has higher fertility right now than any peer country in the region, their collapse just started a bit earlier than China/Korea/Taiwan. Believe it or not, Japan is vastly better situated than South Korea or China for what's about to happen.

seanmcdirmid 4y ago
They got rich before their population started declining. I guess demographics is china’s biggest challenge in making it from a middle income economy to a high income one. However, if they follow Japan’s lead, they will invest in higher productivity via automation.
- FpUser 4y ago
  China might be more open to immigration than Japan and there is a big pool the could draw from.
  - akiselev 4y ago
    In the sense that Jim Crow era Texas is more open than Mississippi.
  - seanmcdirmid 4y ago
    They could embrace immigration from Africa more, but there has been lots of friction against that, a lot of it coming to a boil during COVID. Southeast Asia is already a source of mail order brides and blend with south China pretty easily, but Korea is also drawing from that pool. North Koreans are still considered illegal immigrants and are quickly sent on to South Korea if they are lucky. Ukrainians, Mongolians, and Russians are fairly common in Shanghai/Beijing, mostly traders and models. Maybe it will happen later? But right now China is still a net emigrant country.
    - Ekaros 4y ago
      It might be possible for China. They just have to be able to culturally integrate the migrants. It is in own way important to remember that China is not a nation state. But has rather different view. If immigrants were to adopt Chinese and parts of Chinese culture it might be possible.
      - seanmcdirmid 4y ago
        The problem is that cultural integration in China has typically meant one culture destroying the other. China can barely handle the non-Han diversity it has already, throwing in African immigrants into the mix is probably going to be messy.
  - bpodgursky 4y ago
    There are not a lot of places that are big when compared to China...
dirtyid 4y ago
>Japan is vastly better situated than South Korea or China for what's about to happen Depends how better situated is defined. Advanced economies like JP, SKR or TW (and most of EU) with relatively maxed out human capital (~80% skilled workforce) are undergoing net demographic decline that will stagnate/contract their economies while accumulating increasingly onerous welfare commitments. Versus PRC, whose only at ~25% skilled workforce, with lots of poor before rich aging cohorts that will be replaced by more productive newer generations, still has vast development + economic headroom even with less net population. Meanwhile poor before rich cohorts = expectation of welfare less demanding - many do not expect much in the first place. Hence most poor in PRC have high homeownership and household savings rate to weather the lack of anticipated state support (96% in poorer rural regions). They're vastly different scenarios to manage politically - average PRC retiree is going to have to suffice with much less vs retiree from an advanced economy, but that's expected from old before rich societies. Or just plain not rich societies, i.e. most societies throughout history. But where PRC is vastly better situated, than just about anyone, including immigration heavy advanced economies, at any time in recorded human history, is PRC workforce trending from 25% skilled workforce to 70-80% over next decades - generations of high skill demographic dividend and high-value economic development is JUST starting in PRC. Quick napkin math, PRC will be recomposing the current 750M workforce with ~200M skilled to shrunken 700M workforce but with 450-550M skilled (+250-300M). For reference, current JP is like 55M skilled out of 70M workforce, demographic decline will lead to economic contraction. Also consider 2000 PRC GDP ~1T @ ~2M STEM grads, 2022 GDP ~18T @ ~17M STEM. Projected 2030 STEM @ ~50M, likely topout ~80-100M @ 2050. That's 4-5 extra current JPs worth of growth left, which will increase capacity to weather demographic decline from baseline, which might still be low relatively, but again, that's an entirely different demographic/political situation to engineer around. The TLDR is many advanced economies are in net demographic decline with increasingly onerous welfare requirements, vs PRC has massive high skilled demographic dividend to buffer net demographic decline from old/poor cohorts on their way who also has savings to retire meagrely because they simply don't expect much from state in the first place. IMO person is better situated to retire in the former, but a governance better situated to manage in the latter.

seanmcdirmid 4y ago

They got rich before their population started declining. I guess demographics is china’s biggest challenge in making it from a middle income economy to a high income one. However, if they follow Japan’s lead, they will invest in higher productivity via automation.

FpUser 4y ago
China might be more open to immigration than Japan and there is a big pool the could draw from.
- akiselev 4y ago
  In the sense that Jim Crow era Texas is more open than Mississippi.
- seanmcdirmid 4y ago
  They could embrace immigration from Africa more, but there has been lots of friction against that, a lot of it coming to a boil during COVID. Southeast Asia is already a source of mail order brides and blend with south China pretty easily, but Korea is also drawing from that pool. North Koreans are still considered illegal immigrants and are quickly sent on to South Korea if they are lucky. Ukrainians, Mongolians, and Russians are fairly common in Shanghai/Beijing, mostly traders and models. Maybe it will happen later? But right now China is still a net emigrant country.
  - Ekaros 4y ago
    It might be possible for China. They just have to be able to culturally integrate the migrants. It is in own way important to remember that China is not a nation state. But has rather different view. If immigrants were to adopt Chinese and parts of Chinese culture it might be possible.
    - seanmcdirmid 4y ago
      The problem is that cultural integration in China has typically meant one culture destroying the other. China can barely handle the non-Han diversity it has already, throwing in African immigrants into the mix is probably going to be messy.
- bpodgursky 4y ago
  There are not a lot of places that are big when compared to China...

dirtyid 4y ago

>Japan is vastly better situated than South Korea or China for what's about to happen Depends how better situated is defined. Advanced economies like JP, SKR or TW (and most of EU) with relatively maxed out human capital (~80% skilled workforce) are undergoing net demographic decline that will stagnate/contract their economies while accumulating increasingly onerous welfare commitments. Versus PRC, whose only at ~25% skilled workforce, with lots of poor before rich aging cohorts that will be replaced by more productive newer generations, still has vast development + economic headroom even with less net population. Meanwhile poor before rich cohorts = expectation of welfare less demanding - many do not expect much in the first place. Hence most poor in PRC have high homeownership and household savings rate to weather the lack of anticipated state support (96% in poorer rural regions). They're vastly different scenarios to manage politically - average PRC retiree is going to have to suffice with much less vs retiree from an advanced economy, but that's expected from old before rich societies. Or just plain not rich societies, i.e. most societies throughout history. But where PRC is vastly better situated, than just about anyone, including immigration heavy advanced economies, at any time in recorded human history, is PRC workforce trending from 25% skilled workforce to 70-80% over next decades - generations of high skill demographic dividend and high-value economic development is JUST starting in PRC. Quick napkin math, PRC will be recomposing the current 750M workforce with ~200M skilled to shrunken 700M workforce but with 450-550M skilled (+250-300M). For reference, current JP is like 55M skilled out of 70M workforce, demographic decline will lead to economic contraction. Also consider 2000 PRC GDP ~1T @ ~2M STEM grads, 2022 GDP ~18T @ ~17M STEM. Projected 2030 STEM @ ~50M, likely topout ~80-100M @ 2050. That's 4-5 extra current JPs worth of growth left, which will increase capacity to weather demographic decline from baseline, which might still be low relatively, but again, that's an entirely different demographic/political situation to engineer around. The TLDR is many advanced economies are in net demographic decline with increasingly onerous welfare requirements, vs PRC has massive high skilled demographic dividend to buffer net demographic decline from old/poor cohorts on their way who also has savings to retire meagrely because they simply don't expect much from state in the first place. IMO person is better situated to retire in the former, but a governance better situated to manage in the latter.