4 ms·

> the skill ceiling is now higher than ever as a result the fear from the current professionals is that the new ai raised floor is good enough to be usable co

by chii 4y ago

> the skill ceiling is now higher than ever as a result the fear from the current professionals is that the new ai raised floor is good enough to be usable commercially, and thus, cut a chunk of economic value from the professionals. There is no fear that AI stops people with the intrinsic interest in creation to stop creating - their ceiling and productivity would sky-rocket as a result in fact. And it would be _these_ productions that wow an audience.

randcraw 4y ago
Not if creators are paid nothing for their work. I think inescapably, the profession of writing is about to take a big hit from GPT-X, with the few remaining journalists paid considerably less than before. There will be an exodus of talent, leaving... Microsoft and Google to write our news for us?
- zirgs 4y ago
  If you just copy and paste from Reuters then you're not a real journalist. ChatGPT can't travel to a war zone to find out what's going on there. So real journalists aren't going anywhere.
  - rchaud 4y ago
    No journalist has a job where they spend all day copy/pasting AP/Reuters. This is a simplistic dismissal of the nature of working in a news organization. It would be akin to me saying that using code from a Stack Overflow response makes one 'not a real developer'.
    - nickelcitymario 4y ago
      Agreed, but only because I assume they’ve automated it. Most small town papers are filled with verbatim Reuters reports.
      - tablespoon 4y ago
        > Most small town papers are filled with verbatim Reuters reports. Not exactly. It's mostly AP reports, not Reuters, covering stuff from outside that small paper's area. If there's a flood of national interest in that small town, it's probably one of the reporters from that paper that will write the national wire story. That's kind of the point of the Associated Press, lots of small local organizations banding together to offer comprehensive local/national/international coverage. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Associated_Press https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Associated_Press: > Many newspapers and broadcasters outside the United States are AP subscribers, paying a fee to use AP material without being contributing members of the cooperative. As part of their cooperative agreement with the AP, most member news organizations grant automatic permission for the AP to distribute their local news reports. The AP traditionally employed the "inverted pyramid" formula for writing, a method that enables news outlets to edit a story to fit its available publication area without losing the story's essentials, although in 2007, then-AP President Tom Curley called the practice "dead".[6]
  - chii 4y ago
    > So real journalists aren't going anywhere. and there aren't very many of these kinds of journalists (let's call them "correspondents" to differentiate). The journalists copy/pasting from Reuters, or the ones that paraphrase a press release, is going to go the way of automation, but i suspect that this amount of jobs is still quite large today, but will disappear relatively soon.
zirgs 4y ago
Unlike in the 80s - most programmers no longer need to know assembler/machine code to do their jobs. The skill floor has been lowered - so that programmers like me can get a job.
- mjr00 4y ago
  Yeah, that's a comparison I've been thinking about. C lowered the skill floor, and then Java/Python lowered it even more dramatically, plus the explosion of open source tooling, cloud infrastructure, and general hardware improvements. The average modern junior data scientist could build a software application in a day that would have taken a team of senior C developers months or years to build in 1990. Yet we have not seen a reduction in the number developers.
  - monknomo 4y ago
    I feel like the dev job may change, but as long as people have difficultly describing their requirements so that a programmer can understand, they'll have difficulty describing their requirements so that an AI can understand. It's one thing to ask for a pong game, it's another to ask for a program that "does a kyc process" or something similarly complex
    - tjr 4y ago
      Right, I believe so too. I work in aerospace software, and, for as remarkable as the GPT code generation examples have been so far, I think that even if it could write aerospace software, it would be because humans have spelled out the requirements so precisely that we really aren't looking at any substantial reduction in (human) workforce. You're unlikely to be able to ask an AI tool for "flight management software" and get what you want. This stuff is extremely complex, with lots of moving parts and interactions with other components and with government regulations. You may be able to successfully ask for some specific function, but again, in order to understand that level of detail to even know what to ask for, you have to be pretty involved. It can't just be some non-engineer asking for things they don't understand. Never mind the challenge of certifying the resulting software for use in commercial airspace... And while I think AI tools may be a help (not unlike Stack Overflow), I think it would be a really big mistake to start replacing novice junior engineers with AI tools, even if we could do so, because we need senior engineers who really understand this stuff, and most of the training for aerospace work is on the job.

by chii 4y ago

randcraw 4y ago

Not if creators are paid nothing for their work. I think inescapably, the profession of writing is about to take a big hit from GPT-X, with the few remaining journalists paid considerably less than before. There will be an exodus of talent, leaving... Microsoft and Google to write our news for us?

zirgs 4y ago
If you just copy and paste from Reuters then you're not a real journalist. ChatGPT can't travel to a war zone to find out what's going on there. So real journalists aren't going anywhere.
- rchaud 4y ago
  No journalist has a job where they spend all day copy/pasting AP/Reuters. This is a simplistic dismissal of the nature of working in a news organization. It would be akin to me saying that using code from a Stack Overflow response makes one 'not a real developer'.
  - nickelcitymario 4y ago
    Agreed, but only because I assume they’ve automated it. Most small town papers are filled with verbatim Reuters reports.
    - tablespoon 4y ago
      > Most small town papers are filled with verbatim Reuters reports. Not exactly. It's mostly AP reports, not Reuters, covering stuff from outside that small paper's area. If there's a flood of national interest in that small town, it's probably one of the reporters from that paper that will write the national wire story. That's kind of the point of the Associated Press, lots of small local organizations banding together to offer comprehensive local/national/international coverage. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Associated_Press https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Associated_Press: > Many newspapers and broadcasters outside the United States are AP subscribers, paying a fee to use AP material without being contributing members of the cooperative. As part of their cooperative agreement with the AP, most member news organizations grant automatic permission for the AP to distribute their local news reports. The AP traditionally employed the "inverted pyramid" formula for writing, a method that enables news outlets to edit a story to fit its available publication area without losing the story's essentials, although in 2007, then-AP President Tom Curley called the practice "dead".[6]
- chii 4y ago
  > So real journalists aren't going anywhere. and there aren't very many of these kinds of journalists (let's call them "correspondents" to differentiate). The journalists copy/pasting from Reuters, or the ones that paraphrase a press release, is going to go the way of automation, but i suspect that this amount of jobs is still quite large today, but will disappear relatively soon.

zirgs 4y ago

Unlike in the 80s - most programmers no longer need to know assembler/machine code to do their jobs. The skill floor has been lowered - so that programmers like me can get a job.

mjr00 4y ago
Yeah, that's a comparison I've been thinking about. C lowered the skill floor, and then Java/Python lowered it even more dramatically, plus the explosion of open source tooling, cloud infrastructure, and general hardware improvements. The average modern junior data scientist could build a software application in a day that would have taken a team of senior C developers months or years to build in 1990. Yet we have not seen a reduction in the number developers.
- monknomo 4y ago
  I feel like the dev job may change, but as long as people have difficultly describing their requirements so that a programmer can understand, they'll have difficulty describing their requirements so that an AI can understand. It's one thing to ask for a pong game, it's another to ask for a program that "does a kyc process" or something similarly complex
  - tjr 4y ago
    Right, I believe so too. I work in aerospace software, and, for as remarkable as the GPT code generation examples have been so far, I think that even if it could write aerospace software, it would be because humans have spelled out the requirements so precisely that we really aren't looking at any substantial reduction in (human) workforce. You're unlikely to be able to ask an AI tool for "flight management software" and get what you want. This stuff is extremely complex, with lots of moving parts and interactions with other components and with government regulations. You may be able to successfully ask for some specific function, but again, in order to understand that level of detail to even know what to ask for, you have to be pretty involved. It can't just be some non-engineer asking for things they don't understand. Never mind the challenge of certifying the resulting software for use in commercial airspace... And while I think AI tools may be a help (not unlike Stack Overflow), I think it would be a really big mistake to start replacing novice junior engineers with AI tools, even if we could do so, because we need senior engineers who really understand this stuff, and most of the training for aerospace work is on the job.