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U.S. solar and storage manufacturing jobs expected to grow to 115,000 by 2030
- twoodfin 4y agoNo judgement on the productive value of these modeled jobs, but it’s worth remembering that all else being equal we want to generate or store any given quantity of energy with less labor input rather than more.
- philipkglass 4y agoThe good news is that utility scale solar farms require less labor per megawatt hour generated than legacy sources like coal. The current jobs boom is because installation is rapidly increasing. See this post of mine from 2017 for a comparison of labor to operate already-built generating facilities: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14173844 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14173844
- seydor 4y ago[flagged]
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- mrtweetyhack 4y agoCalifornia will kill solar in April 2023 while at the same time mandating solar for new homes.
- natch 4y agoOne would think new manufacturing jobs in the US would be increasingly robotic over that timeframe.
- JumpCrisscross 4y ago> would think new manufacturing jobs in the US would be increasingly robotic over that timeframe We're a long way from robots that can look at my roof, climb it, install solar panels and hook them up to my power supply.
- natch 4y agoYou call that manufacturing?
- philipkglass 4y agoThey probably will be. Solar manufacturing productivity per full time employee has grown rapidly in the last 7 years and I expect the same in the next 7 years. That said, total solar equipment output is growing even faster so I think that projections of robust job growth are correct.
- kube-system 4y agoAnd many expected the demise of office jobs in the 90s as computers took over. What actually happened is that companies leveraged the respective strengths of both automation and labor to increase growth.
- quadrifoliate 4y agoSomeone needs to bring in, control, service, and oil the robots, and take them off the assembly line when they malfunction. Thinking of new jobs as anywhere close to 100% robotic is a misunderstanding.
- TrapLord_Rhodo 4y agoI did CapEx at Tesla. Almost no human intervention is required for the solar line in buffalo; I.E. Completely automated. The jetsons made us think there will be some use to general, bipedal robots. Turns out the robots are just giant machines that pushes a panel through, applys a special glue, and stacks the metals, glass and silicon. There's some general assembly at the end, but the amount of people on the line is a rounding error to what it takes to keep that line running. It takes hundreds of people to ensure that automated line doesn't stop. Just because we reached automation, doesn't mean we need less people. With automation comes scale. With scale comes new problems and new needs. As robotics takes over, giga factorys will become terafactorys. where factorys used to have thousands of employees, we now have hundreds of thousands. Imagine the terrafactory of the future that employes millions of people, from supply chain to robot whispers and prompt engineerss.
- mbgerring 4y agoClimate Tech companies have lots of jobs, are not laying people off, have financial tailwinds behind them thanks to the Inflation Reduction Act, and, crucially, don’t derive their revenue from the adtech/digital media/ecommerce/developer tooling industry that’s getting shredded right now. Top comment on this post right now is a dumb, dismissive joke. Personally, I don’t think an addressable market size in the trillions of dollars is a joke, but you do you.
- shakabrah 4y ago> are not laying people off Hi there, software engineer here. I was laid off from a climate tech (solar) company in December ‘22. Bonus points for doing it a week out from christmas!
- kneebonian 4y ago> have financial tailwinds behind them thanks the Inflation Reduction Act I'm just saying if your financing and backing has come to pass because of government fiat, it can just as easily be removed by government fiat.
- mbgerring 4y agoMy company’s revenue mostly comes from people paying for services, the IRA is mainly good for helping some of these new technologies reach economies of scale. Good luck out there!
- hn_throwaway_99 4y ago
- richardw 4y agoAfter the GFC I thought the smart move was to generate a massive renewable industry, Manhattan project style. Growth, new jobs, energy independence, a new direction and possibly dominance in renewables. There are probably reasons why it was too early but I still think we’d all be in a better world if that was the choice.
- throwayyy479087 4y agoWe did but not with renewable energy. You're describing: 1: The fracking boom 2: The bike explosion and zoning reform in American cities
- m463 4y agoI don't think "manhattan projects" are a good idea anymore. Maybe during a war, when the best people could be drafted and put together for a common goal. But now, it seems to be "the government picks a winner", which historically they have been bad at. Examples I remember are paying ISPs to wire schools, and the early funding for solar companies. The government just dissipated billions of dollars with little to show for it. I think the real answer might be to eliminate externalities via taxation and let market forces solve the problem. (admittedly a hard problem when pollution is global). But from what I recall, cap-and-trade worked to solve the acid rain problem pretty well.
- TrapLord_Rhodo 4y agoYour anecdote doesn't directly contradict his statement. It would be like if the president decided that he will spare no expenses to personally install GWH of solar and that was his project. Your example is if the government just paid a bunch of subcontractors to do it. I believe his statement is true. If some strong willed president came in, declaredd that it was a national security issue to have energy independence and utilized miltary resources to start construction on federal lands of massive solar farms, I would applaud such effort. Technically the president is commander and chief and although limited in his ability to expend funds, there are appropriations through which he could funnel resources, like the Air Force red horse construction units. Granted, we'd have to stop building so maany bases in the middle east for that to happen; but that's aa feature not a bug.
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- cdnsteve 4y agoSolar is not an economical or environment friendly mechanism to produce energy. This is a house of cards.
- admax88qqq 4y agoReally? Most of the numbers I've seen suggest solar is the cheapest energy production there is, so it certainly seems economical.
- S201 4y ago[citation needed]
- gknapp 4y agoWhat makes you say that? There's so much research that flies in the face of this sentiment. Solar on rooftops alone has the potential to supply a fourth of the current US energy consumption [1]. Other studies estimate that solar could grow to supply between 30-50% of our energy consumption in the future [2]. Solar represents a near limitless supply of energy, and can be harvested in a decentralized fashion (allowing homes to directly power themselves). Furthermore, EVs have shown that advancements in tech can mitigate concerns around material availability and sustainability (while also increasing efficiency). [1]: Rooftop Photovoltaic Technical Potential in the United States, https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1575064 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1575064 [2]: The underestimated potential of solar energy to mitigate climate change, https://www.nature.com/articles/nenergy2017140 https://www.nature.com/articles/nenergy2017140
- fuddle 4y ago"Solar is now the cheapest energy in history" - https://www.zmescience.com/science/solar-is-now-the-cheapest-energy-in-history/ https://www.zmescience.com/science/solar-is-now-the-cheapest...
- jlmorton 4y agoI'd invite you to review the US DOE Levelized Costs of New Generation [1], which includes both subsidized, and unsubsidized costs. [1] https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/pdf/electricity_generation.pdf https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/pdf/electricity_generation....
- shaburn 4y agoSo an industry trade group funded by the renewable energy industry, dependent on government spending by government parties that "represent labor", say they are going to create a shit ton of jobs(of undescribed income and duration) at some point in the future...if they get more subsidy. Got it.
- debacle 4y agoThere is a deaded comment here about California killing solar in April. I'm wondering, what is that about? Is there a looming regulation change? The states compete against themselves. If California does something silly regarding solar, that puts other states at an advantage.
- IvyMike 4y agoCalifornia is adopting NEM 3.0 for new installs: "Customers using solar panels can receive an average rate of 30 cents per kilowatt-hour under NEM 2.0, but under NEM 3.0, this rate would be reduced to only 8 cents per kilowatt-hour." Note that current systems (and those installed before the deadline) are covered under a legacy law and don't have to worry just yet. https://housemethod.com/solar/nem-3-0-why-april-2023-will-change-the-solar-game-in-ca/ https://housemethod.com/solar/nem-3-0-why-april-2023-will-ch... Personally I think this is an incentive to build solar + storage, so that during peak generation (early afternoon) you store your power rather than selling it back, and at peak usage (evenings) you use that. From the grid's perspective, this is much better than what has been happening. But from the public's $$ perspective, not quite as enticing.
- kurthr 4y agoThe power generators have discovered that they would like to be making the profits from installing solar rather than their customers. It's all just a margin grab typical of the customer/supplier relationship.
- ThatPlayer 4y agoOr maybe it is because power generation is only a small part of the cost in delivering electricity to homes. Grid maintenance is typically factored into your price per kWh, and under the old NEM those costs get shifted to your neighbors. Technology Connections has done a recent video about this on their second channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C4cNnVK412U https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C4cNnVK412U
- arrosenberg 4y ago
- photochemsyn 4y agoIt's called monocrystalline capacity, why not at least be explicit? > "However, China currently represents more than 80% of the solar PV manufacturing supply chain and is expected to increase in the coming years." China has invested a lot over the past decade in figuring out how to pump out monocrystalline silicon wafers at scale, and the USA has not, resulting in a massive advantage for Chinese companies in the sector. They've been extremely secretive about the technology, see this from 2018 and there's not been a whole lot since: https://www.pv-magazine.com/2018/04/14/the-weekend-read-chinas-monocrystalline-boom/ https://www.pv-magazine.com/2018/04/14/the-weekend-read-chin... That's essentially the issue.
- throwaway5959 4y agoSounds like we need to steal the technology then and start mass producing it. I don’t see what the problem is.
- photochemsyn 4y agoIf we were China, we'd say "hey we have cheap labor option for you Wall Street, come set up production line here, we so horny for you!" Well, that's over and done with, I suppose. Or is it? Reverso maybe?
- toiletfuneral 4y ago[dead]
- earthscienceman 4y agoSo here's a fun question: which sizeable solar\storage companies are dark horses for really great investment right now?
- Paradigma11 4y agoWhat is the plan to offset this increase in solar energy with enough non intermittent production and storage to cope with low probability winter with long Dunkelflauten and who is paying for it?
- JoeAltmaier 4y agoKeep in mind, 500 million people in the USA work in utilities. So 115,000 is a tiny, tiny number.
- philipkglass 4y agoDid you mean 500 thousand people? The total US population is about 330 million.
- JoeAltmaier 4y agoYes, thanks. So not so tiny.
- FrojoS 4y agoFor all you DIY fans and hackers: 1) You can install solar panels yourself [1]. Most of the cost today is installation not the panels. You don't necessarily have to put them on the roof of your house. Installation on e.g. a car port or just on the ground is usually much easier. 2) You can save money by building your own battery from B-grade (safe but not good enough for electric cars), LifePo4 3.2V cells, and a BMS (battery management system) sourced directly from China. If you know German, this video is a great start: https://youtu.be/97T3TAV51sM https://youtu.be/97T3TAV51sM He built a 10kW solar plant with a 11kWh LifePo4 battery for no more than 7'000 USD. He's using that power in part to heat is home with AC and estimated that it will amortise within a handful of years. Also has a great forum, again in German, https://www.akkudoktor.net/forum/ https://www.akkudoktor.net/forum/ Looking forward to any good English sources. I'm currently building a van for remote work. Already live and work in it full time for a few months now. I have 5.5kWh of LifePo4 battery that cost me about 1'500 USD. Bought in Germany, incl. housing and BMS, not DIY. Would already be much cheaper now, just half a year later. I currently have 200Wp solar on the roof, which is enough for work. Planning to upgrade to 900Wp soon, to also run AC and cook via induction instead of gas. AMA. [1] You might want to check the building codes in your area. Like many here, I'm more of a EAFP guy.
- zamnos 4y agoThat looks really cool! my one question is: what's your toilet and shower situation?
- FrojoS 4y agoGood. Toilet: https://www.trelino.com/collections/composting-toilets/products/trelino-m-composting-toilet-made-of-wood-with-hpl-finish https://www.trelino.com/collections/composting-toilets/produ... Shower: https://www.amazon.com/Ivation-Portable-Outdoor-Battery-Powered/dp/B00IFHFJXI/ref=sr_1_4?keywords=portable+shower&qid=1678542531&sr=8-4 https://www.amazon.com/Ivation-Portable-Outdoor-Battery-Powe...