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In Venezuela cars are not depreciating [0], because there is no supply of new cars from outside. That's what is going to happen with Europe. People will be driv

In Venezuela cars are not depreciating [0], because there is no supply of new cars from outside. That's what is going to happen with Europe. People will be driving in 30+ years old cars, because nobody won't be able to afford new cars. And OEM manufacturers are aware of this problem [1], but has no solution for it. Everyone started making BEVs, so cost for resources went up. And there is no reason for it to go down. [0] https://www.automotive-fleet.com/157233/market-snapshot-venezuela-fleet-market https://www.automotive-fleet.com/157233/market-snapshot-vene... [1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-29/stellantis-warns-of-car-market-collapse-if-evs-don-t-get-cheaper https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-29/stellanti...

rob74 4y ago
That problem will probably solve itself once gasoline becomes so expensive (because of it becoming a niche product, because of rising taxes, or both) that nobody will be able to afford it anymore - except maybe drivers of 30+ year old Porsches or Ferraris...
- TheLoafOfBread 4y ago
  Why it should, when there will be demand for it? Last time when French were trying to raise taxes on gas, it ended with Yellow vests riots.
  - martin_a 4y ago
    French are always protesting, that's not a really good measurement.
- kybernetyk 4y ago
  When fuel becomes this expensive food will become unattainable for most people. Or we somehow miraculously create magic batteries to power commercial transport. The problem with cities will solve itself: no one is going to live in a concrete desert where simple food is too expensive.
  - GaryNumanVevo 4y ago
    Actually it'll most likely be the opposite, larger cities are typically surrounded by arable land with good proximity to rail. Shipping food by rail would become more common, with distribution by semi / box truck to the suburbs or rural area to be very very expensive. California will probably be the best off, in terms of a basically year round growing season and a massive amount of land close to large population centers.
    - nradov 4y ago
      Rail is already heavily used for transporting bulk grains, livestock, and canned/packaged/frozen food. But it's simply too slow on most routes for fresh, perishable food. Trucks will continue to be heavily used. In the US at least we have plenty of natural gas and I expect the fleet to gradually migrate to that fuel. Delivery trucks are already shifting to battery electric.
      - GaryNumanVevo 4y ago
        Ah yeah LP (natural gas) is a great alternative, IIRC India has a bunch of LNP vehicles already. I'm not sure battery trucks are great for long haul trucking, but they've proved useful for last mile stuff already.
- ovi256 4y ago
  Why do you think this idea of starving demand through high prices for something people want is good ? Why do you limit it only to transportation ? Would you care to apply it to all consumer needs, housing, education, child care, health care, food, staples ? If no, why is transportation different ?
  - beachy 4y ago
    Why? Because fossil fuels are killing the planet and increasing their price will lead people to use less or find alternatives. It's simple economics, not rocket science.
    - Spivak 4y ago
      Then just ban it. Sin taxes are dumb, regressive, and the cost is paid by people who have no control over their situation. Someone who lives in a suburb and commutes to work in the city because that's where affordable housing is just loses money for no gain. If the person affected by the tax doesn't have an actionable alternative to avoid it and the plan is "vaguely make people worse off so that <random corporation> will make an alternative happen" then you have a bad candidate for a tax and you should do what places are actually doing which is "banhammer for new ICE cars incoming in 20xx, figure it out car manufacturers."
- PeterisP 4y ago
  Why would gasoline become more expensive, if we expect a big part of the demand to go away by regulatory-forced migration to electric vehicles?
  - jabl 4y ago
    A much smaller market would have to pay for the fixed costs of the oil industry? Gas stations close because a few Porsches, Ferraris and classic cars isn't enough to keep them afloat? Then OTOH, due to refineries working the way they do, if private cars are replaced by EV's, but long range trucking, marine shipping and aviation remain, refineries will have a huge problem what to do with the gasoline fractions.
  - johannes1234321 4y ago
    Distribution is expensive. The dense network of fuel stations works due to the high demand. In addition there is a quite high price sensitivity: If fuel is a little bit cheaper customers are willing to take the small detour. With less demand there are less stations, less competition and still a expensive logistics network.
CalRobert 4y ago
I am hoping that we improve cities and towns so most people simply don't need to own a car. A cargo bike and the odd car-hire (like car2go) could replace car ownership for a lot of people, and make cities more pleasant.
- TheLoafOfBread 4y ago
  Let's say that some bigger cities will be able to achieve this, what about the rest of settlements?
  - guhidalg 4y ago
    They'll disappear. That's life, extinction comes for everyone someday.
    - FpUser 4y ago
      I'll prefer for big confining cities to disappear sooner.
  - martin_a 4y ago
    Smaller settlements profit from less demand for cars. That will stabilize prices for cars and petrol and everything around that.
  - Tiktaalik 4y ago
    Smaller towns existed before cars! Consider Vancouver Island for example, a number of small towns on the east coast of the island anchored by larger cities of Nanaimo and Victoria. They were connected together by a railroad. As the age of cars took over the railroad tracks went into disrepair and were abandoned. We have a 19th century technology sitting right there to fix this problem. The only thing lacking is political will.
    - TheLoafOfBread 4y ago
      Time to bring out the horse. Yee haw.
PeterisP 4y ago
> because nobody won't be able to afford new cars. Wait, what? The price differential is not that significant, there are also cheap new EVs, and driving a 30 year old car with EU fuel prices and mandatory technical maintenance costs won't be a much more affordable option, and there are pollution laws like Paris which ensure that older, more polluting cars can't enter city centers. If new cars become more expensive, it's likely to cause some limited decline in usage, but saying "nobody won't be able to afford new cars" is useless hyperbole.
- dsfyu404ed 4y ago
  >EU fuel prices and mandatory technical maintenance costs Both of which are predicated on continued political will. I can see the out of touch upper middle class driving things far enough off a cliff that populists get elected and change these things.
  - TheLoafOfBread 4y ago
    This is exactly what I am expecting as well. People here earning 100k USD a year can't comprehend that people who earn 20k EUR a year or less does not have means to buy even a used BEV. But they have means to buy 15 years old beater.
    - PeterisP 4y ago
      If they're not buying new cars, then nothing changes for them in 2035; and if they buy 15-year old beaters, then there's time until 2050 for the used EV market to normalize - because right now it is (of course) distorted as the early adopter EV cars were more of the expensive end and not represent the median family car.
  - arrrg 4y ago
    What‘s your proposal to get transportation emissions to zero? Mine is an appropriate CO2 price (pricing in the currently not priced in externalities) and then distributing most of the money from that equally back to everyone (meaning those who earn less and also pollute less will on average get more money back than the increase in CO2 costs for them while still preserving a strong incentive to reduce emissions). It seems pretty clear to me that in that world BEVs are the only viable way forward for personal transportation.
oh_sigh 4y ago
The prices would go down if Venezuela had sufficient domestic car production. As it stands, they made 8(yes, 8) trucks and zero cars a few years ago.
maxdo 4y ago
you are quoting outdated losers of the market isights. Right now EV market is in the middle of price wars that drives EV especially with incentives into very affordable area. Wind power will drive it even further , Tesla released $30/mo for night charging in Texas. I pay $200-$300/mo for gasoline. 200x12mox10years = $24,000 per 10 years of ownership of pure profit just on gas. I'm not including other benefits. You got a free Toyota Camry ( Nissan Leaf) every 10 years, just on TCO improvements. There is a program for a compact chinese made EV in EU for $70/mo of lease. Yes its a very cheap car, but still it's a perfect city car. Tesla on their investors day announced dramatic cuts of production costs, up to 50%. EV for many cases IS much cheaper NOW. It will be waay cheaper in 10 years.
pornel 4y ago
Stellantis is just a legacy automaker with no EV expertise, so no wonder they struggle to make money on EVs. There is an abundance of lithium on Earth. Increased demand increases production. The price spikes are temporary due to a lag between increases in demand and the production that follows: https://youtu.be/Hl1zEzVUV7w?t=3262 https://youtu.be/Hl1zEzVUV7w?t=3262

rob74 4y ago

That problem will probably solve itself once gasoline becomes so expensive (because of it becoming a niche product, because of rising taxes, or both) that nobody will be able to afford it anymore - except maybe drivers of 30+ year old Porsches or Ferraris...

TheLoafOfBread 4y ago
Why it should, when there will be demand for it? Last time when French were trying to raise taxes on gas, it ended with Yellow vests riots.
- martin_a 4y ago
  French are always protesting, that's not a really good measurement.
kybernetyk 4y ago
When fuel becomes this expensive food will become unattainable for most people. Or we somehow miraculously create magic batteries to power commercial transport. The problem with cities will solve itself: no one is going to live in a concrete desert where simple food is too expensive.
- GaryNumanVevo 4y ago
  Actually it'll most likely be the opposite, larger cities are typically surrounded by arable land with good proximity to rail. Shipping food by rail would become more common, with distribution by semi / box truck to the suburbs or rural area to be very very expensive. California will probably be the best off, in terms of a basically year round growing season and a massive amount of land close to large population centers.
  - nradov 4y ago
    Rail is already heavily used for transporting bulk grains, livestock, and canned/packaged/frozen food. But it's simply too slow on most routes for fresh, perishable food. Trucks will continue to be heavily used. In the US at least we have plenty of natural gas and I expect the fleet to gradually migrate to that fuel. Delivery trucks are already shifting to battery electric.
    - GaryNumanVevo 4y ago
      Ah yeah LP (natural gas) is a great alternative, IIRC India has a bunch of LNP vehicles already. I'm not sure battery trucks are great for long haul trucking, but they've proved useful for last mile stuff already.
ovi256 4y ago
Why do you think this idea of starving demand through high prices for something people want is good ? Why do you limit it only to transportation ? Would you care to apply it to all consumer needs, housing, education, child care, health care, food, staples ? If no, why is transportation different ?
- beachy 4y ago
  Why? Because fossil fuels are killing the planet and increasing their price will lead people to use less or find alternatives. It's simple economics, not rocket science.
  - Spivak 4y ago
    Then just ban it. Sin taxes are dumb, regressive, and the cost is paid by people who have no control over their situation. Someone who lives in a suburb and commutes to work in the city because that's where affordable housing is just loses money for no gain. If the person affected by the tax doesn't have an actionable alternative to avoid it and the plan is "vaguely make people worse off so that <random corporation> will make an alternative happen" then you have a bad candidate for a tax and you should do what places are actually doing which is "banhammer for new ICE cars incoming in 20xx, figure it out car manufacturers."
PeterisP 4y ago
Why would gasoline become more expensive, if we expect a big part of the demand to go away by regulatory-forced migration to electric vehicles?
- jabl 4y ago
  A much smaller market would have to pay for the fixed costs of the oil industry? Gas stations close because a few Porsches, Ferraris and classic cars isn't enough to keep them afloat? Then OTOH, due to refineries working the way they do, if private cars are replaced by EV's, but long range trucking, marine shipping and aviation remain, refineries will have a huge problem what to do with the gasoline fractions.
- johannes1234321 4y ago
  Distribution is expensive. The dense network of fuel stations works due to the high demand. In addition there is a quite high price sensitivity: If fuel is a little bit cheaper customers are willing to take the small detour. With less demand there are less stations, less competition and still a expensive logistics network.

CalRobert 4y ago

I am hoping that we improve cities and towns so most people simply don't need to own a car. A cargo bike and the odd car-hire (like car2go) could replace car ownership for a lot of people, and make cities more pleasant.

TheLoafOfBread 4y ago
Let's say that some bigger cities will be able to achieve this, what about the rest of settlements?
- guhidalg 4y ago
  They'll disappear. That's life, extinction comes for everyone someday.
  - FpUser 4y ago
    I'll prefer for big confining cities to disappear sooner.
- martin_a 4y ago
  Smaller settlements profit from less demand for cars. That will stabilize prices for cars and petrol and everything around that.
- Tiktaalik 4y ago
  Smaller towns existed before cars! Consider Vancouver Island for example, a number of small towns on the east coast of the island anchored by larger cities of Nanaimo and Victoria. They were connected together by a railroad. As the age of cars took over the railroad tracks went into disrepair and were abandoned. We have a 19th century technology sitting right there to fix this problem. The only thing lacking is political will.
  - TheLoafOfBread 4y ago
    Time to bring out the horse. Yee haw.

PeterisP 4y ago

> because nobody won't be able to afford new cars. Wait, what? The price differential is not that significant, there are also cheap new EVs, and driving a 30 year old car with EU fuel prices and mandatory technical maintenance costs won't be a much more affordable option, and there are pollution laws like Paris which ensure that older, more polluting cars can't enter city centers. If new cars become more expensive, it's likely to cause some limited decline in usage, but saying "nobody won't be able to afford new cars" is useless hyperbole.

dsfyu404ed 4y ago
>EU fuel prices and mandatory technical maintenance costs Both of which are predicated on continued political will. I can see the out of touch upper middle class driving things far enough off a cliff that populists get elected and change these things.
- TheLoafOfBread 4y ago
  This is exactly what I am expecting as well. People here earning 100k USD a year can't comprehend that people who earn 20k EUR a year or less does not have means to buy even a used BEV. But they have means to buy 15 years old beater.
  - PeterisP 4y ago
    If they're not buying new cars, then nothing changes for them in 2035; and if they buy 15-year old beaters, then there's time until 2050 for the used EV market to normalize - because right now it is (of course) distorted as the early adopter EV cars were more of the expensive end and not represent the median family car.
- arrrg 4y ago
  What‘s your proposal to get transportation emissions to zero? Mine is an appropriate CO2 price (pricing in the currently not priced in externalities) and then distributing most of the money from that equally back to everyone (meaning those who earn less and also pollute less will on average get more money back than the increase in CO2 costs for them while still preserving a strong incentive to reduce emissions). It seems pretty clear to me that in that world BEVs are the only viable way forward for personal transportation.

oh_sigh 4y ago

The prices would go down if Venezuela had sufficient domestic car production. As it stands, they made 8(yes, 8) trucks and zero cars a few years ago.

maxdo 4y ago

you are quoting outdated losers of the market isights. Right now EV market is in the middle of price wars that drives EV especially with incentives into very affordable area. Wind power will drive it even further , Tesla released $30/mo for night charging in Texas. I pay $200-$300/mo for gasoline. 200x12mox10years = $24,000 per 10 years of ownership of pure profit just on gas. I'm not including other benefits. You got a free Toyota Camry ( Nissan Leaf) every 10 years, just on TCO improvements. There is a program for a compact chinese made EV in EU for $70/mo of lease. Yes its a very cheap car, but still it's a perfect city car. Tesla on their investors day announced dramatic cuts of production costs, up to 50%. EV for many cases IS much cheaper NOW. It will be waay cheaper in 10 years.

pornel 4y ago

Stellantis is just a legacy automaker with no EV expertise, so no wonder they struggle to make money on EVs. There is an abundance of lithium on Earth. Increased demand increases production. The price spikes are temporary due to a lag between increases in demand and the production that follows: https://youtu.be/Hl1zEzVUV7w?t=3262 https://youtu.be/Hl1zEzVUV7w?t=3262